Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Heisman Trophy Prediction

Well, it's time for my rankings to be posted.

They are also up on Stiles Points, which has a nice rundown of a few bloggers picks, including mine (obviously), The Big Picture, Money Shot, Wasting Company Time, and of course the picks of Stiles himself. Really good stuff and interesting to see how the voting turned out.

Anyway, here are my top 5:

1. Tim Tebow - He's only a sophomore and his team is not in the national title hunt... two strikes against him. But the numbers are just too good to ignore. He's got a mind-boggling 51 total TDs (29 passing, 22 rushing) and nearly 4000 total yards (3132 passing, 838 rushing). Oh, and he erased any doubt that there might have been about his throwing ability, as he has completed 68.5% of his passes. The numbers are just too good for him not to be my Heisman pick.

2. Chase Daniel - He had led Missouri into the National Title Hunt (I am writing this before the Oklahoma/Missouri game). Who would have thought that would happen before the season began? He's been an extremely efficient and effective passer... nearly 4000 yards through the year, 33 TD, 9 INT, and he has completed over 70% of his passes. Not bad.

3. Darren McFadden - Perhaps the most talented player in college football. The Razorbacks have struggled at times this year, but through no fault of McFadden. He has rushed for over 1700 yards (nearly 6 YPC) and run for 15 TDs. Oh, and just for good measure he's also thrown for 4 TD passes.

4. Dennis Dixon - What could have been! If he hadn't gotten hurt then Oregon might be playing for the national title and Dixon might be the Heisman winner. Unfortunately, that did not happen, but I can't put Dixon lower than 4th. He was fantastic all year long as a dual-threat QB. The running was there as it always has been (583 yards, 9 TD), but he also became an efficient thrower, with 20 TDs, 4 INT, and completing over 2/3 of his passes.

5. Todd Reesing - If Kansas had beat Missouri he'd have a solid shot at the Heisman, but as it is he should still get some recognition for an outstanding year. In leading the resurgence of Kansas he threw for over 3200 yards, and had a fantastic 32/6 TD/INT ratio.

Who's your pick?

23 comments:

Stefan Ming said...

Tebow 7 more rushings td's than McFadden. First ever 20/20 player. All that alone should give him the Heisman.

Kari Chisholm said...

Hey --

So, I run a site called StiffArmTrophy.com -- where we conduct an "exit poll" and hope to correctly project the winner for a sixth year in a row.

On average, we've been about plus-or-minus 3% on the actual vote total earned by the winner, so we feel pretty good about our system.

C'mon by and help us out - we need lots of media spotters out there taking note of actual Heisman voters telling us how they're voting.

Thanks!

Bob McCarty Writes said...

Visit Heisman Watch on the ESPN web site and you'll find descriptions of nine fantastic college football players, six of whom are quarterbacks. Missing from the list, however, is one player who, by any standard of measurement, should also be included as a serious candidate for the award. That player is Sam Bradford.

As a redshirt freshman, he lead the Oklahoma Sooners to an 11-2 finish, capped by a sound 38-17 thrashing of then-top rated Missouri, a Big 12 Conference title and an opportunity to play #9 West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl.

A look at the quarterbacks stats page on ESPN shows Bradford finished the season as the highest-rated passer (180.5) in Division 1, in part, by completing a best-in-the-nation 70.1 percent of his passes. But that's not all:

Bradford also set an NCAA record for touchdown passes (34) by a freshman;

Only three top 10 quarterbacks -- Texas Tech's Graham Harrell (45), Tulsa's Paul Smith (42) and Hawaii's Colt Brennan (38) -- threw more TDs than Bradford; and

Bradford's team lost only one game (Colorado, 27-24) in which he played more than three plays. In a Nov. 17 loss to Texas Tech (34-27), he suffered a concussion on OU's first play from scrimmage and had to leave the game soon after.

To some, it might seem Bradford is following in the footsteps of former Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson. Now setting records as a Minnesota Viking in the NFL, Peterson finished second in the Heisman Trophy after a remarkable freshman season during which he gained 1925 yards and led the nation in carries with 339.

The difference, however, is this: Thanks to sites like ESPN's Heisman Watch, it seems as if Bradford isn't even receiving consideration alongside quarterbacks like Florida's Tim Tebow, West Virginia's Pat White, Brennan and, most importantly, Missouri's Chase Daniel, whom the Sooners QB defeated and outplayed twice.

When awards like this are given based on popularity and marketing ability rather than performance and talent, the trophy begins to appear tarnished.

Joey Kaufman said...

Tebow should win the award. No contest!

Stefan Ming said...

Also, I would like to mention Kevin Smith from UCF, nations leading rusher with 2, 448 yds and 29 TD and UCF is playing in a bowl game. I hope he goes to New York.

sugarshane024 said...

Darren McFadden is easily the best player in college football. He should (but won't) win. And why not consider defensive studs like LSU's Glenn Dorsey or UVA's Chris Long?

It's a shame that BC had to fall out of contention. Otherwise, Matt Ryan would be making a big push for the award. In my opinion, he's the best quarterback in college football.

The Big Picture said...

i'd consider glenn dorsey too. he really might be the "most oustanding" player in college football.

Stefan Ming said...

Just think if Dorsey was 100% this whole season... scary.

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