2007 ACC Basketball Preview

Thankfully, it is that time of year again... just about time for the college basketball season. I'll try to preview each of the major conferences in the next couple weeks, starting with the ACC.

First, what to watch for with each team:

Boston College - For the first time in a while, they won't be the experienced, fundamental team. After losing Jared Dudley and Sean Marshall BC will be very young. They're led by Tyrese Rice, a great distributor who also has tons of range.

Clemson - The last 2 years they have gotten off to fast starts before fizzling. Things should be better this year, as they return 4 starters and a lot of experience. Two keys are KC Rivers, who's an explosive scorer for them, and James Mays, a great post defender. Mays deciding not to go to the Draft was huge.

Duke - Last year wasn't quite the year we've come to expect from Duke, but they should be very good this year. They lose Josh McRoberts, but they return everyone else while adding some solid freshmen, most notably Kyle Singler. They'll be more experienced, a little quicker, and should be better offensively. They could compete in the ACC if things go right.

Florida St. - They could have a tough go of it after the loss of Al Thornton. Still, the solid perimeter trio of Toney Douglas, Jason Rich, and Isaiah Swann will keep them in games. They need freshmen big mean Solomon Adabi and Julian Vaughn to provide some production inside.

Georgia Tech - They lose the immensely talented guys Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young, but they won't be pushovers in the ACC. They don't have any stars, but they just have a solid of solid players. Wings Lewis Clinch and Anthony Morrow should contribute well in the scoring column to help complement their solid frontcourt play.

Maryland - They lost some key cogs from last year, but they should be able to make up for a lot of that with their returnees. Most notable among them is PG Greveis Vasquez, who impressed as a true freshman last year. He'll be joined in the backcourt by Eric Hayes, another guy who is very adept at handling the basketball. Up front, explosive senior James Gist will have to be big. Other than these guys, Maryland could be relying on a lot of inexperience.

Miami - They had some injuries last year, which gave a lot of different guys experience, which should pay dividends this year. Most notably returning is Jack McClinton, who averaged 16.7 PPG for the Hurricanes last year. Miami definitely has the talent and experience to compete for an NCAA Tournament berth.

North Carolina - The Heels will again be loaded. They're obviously led by Tyler Hansbrough, one of the best players in the country. But the real key here is the backcourt of Tywon Lawson and Wayne Ellington, who will be counted on heavily on both ends of the floor. If the Tar Heels can become more consistent defensively, they will compete for the national title, as shown by their #1 preseason ranking.

North Carolina State - After finishing strong last year, things appear to be bright in Sidney Lowe's second year. They lose Elgin Atsur, which leaves a hole at PG, but they return a lot of experienced talent. PF Brandon Costner is one of the best players in the ACC. Gavin Grant had to play out of position often last year, but he'll be back at SF. If they can get consistent PG play they might be able to challenge for the ACC Title.

Virginia - The loss of JR Reynolds will be tough to overcome, but they still have Sean Singletary, an explosive offensive guard. But the keys to this team are the production from Mamadi Diane, and the overall emphasis on defense. They'll have to replace Reynolds' and Jason Cain's prodction on both ends of the court, which won't be easy. They might not have as much success as they did last year, but they should be right in the middle of things for a Tournament berth.

Virginia Tech - After losing their 2 excellent guards, it could be a long year for the Hokies. They have some talent, but unfortunately most of it is really young. Their best player in wing man Deron Washington, who is one of the most athletic guys in the country. If he can provide consistent offensive production, the Hokies can be a middle-of-the-pack team in the ACC.

Wake Forest - It's going to be a very tough year for the Demon Deacons. Not only did they lose a lot of players, but they lost their coach Skip Prosser, who tragically died in the offseason. It might not be pretty at times. One guy to watch is freshman PG Jeff Teague, who should log a lot of minutes this year.


All-Conference Team
Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
Brandon Costner, NC State
Deron Washington, Virginia Tech
Sean Singletary, Virginia
Tyrese Rice, Boston College

Player of the Year: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

Freshman of the Year: Kyle Singler, Duke

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. NC State
4. Clemson
5. Maryland
6. Virginia
7. Georgia Tech
8. Miami
9. Florida St.
10. Boston College
11. Virginia Tech
12. Wake Forest

Other Predictions:
Storming the Floor

Boston College beats Virginia Tech

For much of the last few weeks I have not been all that high on Boston College, calling them very overrated and not having beaten anyone. For 54 minutes on Thursday I thought this seemed rather accurate.

Then they decided to be awesome for the last 6 minutes or so and come back to beat Virginia Tech 14-10.

Matt Ryan has been shooting up a lot of draft boards this year, but I wasn't convinced yet that he was in the class of Brian Brohm and Andre Woodson as far as the draft was concerned. Well, all the questions were answered on the final 2 drives.

Seriously Matt Ryan was awesome on the final 2 drives. Unbelievable touch, great arm strength, perfect accuracy, good decision making, good mobility in the pocket... it was a thing of beauty. And the 2 TD passes... my goodness. The first one was just an extraordinary pass... he threw it to a spot, and it was perfectly placed just beyond the reach of the defender's hands, just barely giving the receiver enough time to get a foot in. It was beautiful.

Then the game-winner... Matt Ryan scrambled, but he kept his head up and looking downfield. That's more rare than you might think. And then rolling to his left, throwing across the field and across his body... awesome. Really, that's the best word to describe Matt Ryan on the final 2 drives. He was awesome. And this was all against a great defense in Virginia Tech.

Do I think Boston College is one of the 2 best teams in the country? Probably not. But I'm a lot more likely to believe it now. And I am a lot more likely to believe in Matt Ryan's skills, both as a Heisman contender and at the next level.

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 8

After getting back to .500 last week, I struggled again, dropping me back under the .500. I'll just give my quick picks, because I also want to comment on the Boston College game tonight, and I don't have time for explanations!

Bears (-5) over Lions

Browns (-3) over Rams

Colts (-6.5) over Panthers

Patriots (-16.5) over Redskins

Saints (-3) over 49ers

Bills (+3) over Jets

Dolphins (+9.5) over Giants

Vikings (+1) over Eagles

Bengals (+3.5) over Steelers

Bucs (-4) over Jaguars

Raiders (+7.5) over Titans

Broncos (-3) over Packers

Last Week: 5-9
Season: 46-50-7

College Football Power Rankings - 10/24

Once again, time for my top 10.

1. LSU - They got quite a scare, but I'll put them at #1, just barely. Still really talented defensively, and they are loaded offensively.

2. Ohio St. - Like BC and Arizona St., they haven't really beaten anyone too much of note. Unlike those teams, they've looked more impressive while doing it. The defense is dominating, and Chris Wells is really, really good.

3. USC - They're a lot lower in the actual polls, but I'm willing to give them a break for the loss because of all the talent. Well, they'll have a chance to show it this weekend, heading to Eugene to take on...

4. Oregon - Is this the best offense in the country? I'm starting to think it might be. Only once this year have they scored under 30 points, and that was in their 31-24 loss to California. They've had 48 points or more in 5 games so far this year. If you haven't watched Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart play, you really need to.

5. Oklahoma - Yikes. Barely eeking out a victory against a very bad Iowa St. team. A tough game this week against the Aggies, but if they get past that the schedule sets up very nicely for them.

6. Florida - Still love the talent on this team. Tim Tebow is a legit Heisman candidate... what a playmaker. He leads the team in passing and rushing and has a combined 27 TD. Not too bad.

7. West Virginia - They seem to have gotten more on track offensively since the USF loss, which is good because the schedule is challenging the rest of the way.

8. Boston College - Maybe a little low, but I'm still not convinced... if they beat Virginia Tech on Thursday, then we can talk top 5.

9. South Florida - Tough loss but Rutgers is a good, well-coached team. They can't have a letdown this week against a suddenly rejuvenated Connecticut team.

10. Arizona St. - Their best win so far this year is at home against Oregon St. They're the Boston College of the West right now. Their next 2 games are against Cal and @ Oregon... if they pass those 2 tests, then we can talk top 5. Or maybe even top 3.

Your thoughts? What would you change?

Ranking the NFL Divisions

I thought it might be interesting to try and rank the divisions. So here they are, from best to worst, with a little bit of rationale after each, because that's just how I like to operate. These were ranked based on a super secret formula (just kidding)

1. AFC South
Indy established themselves as the dominant team in the division, but the rest is pretty solid. Jacksonville has shown they can basically compete with anyone with their running game and defense. Tennessee is 4-2. Even Houston is pretty potent when they are healthy, which unfortunately hasn't always been the case this year. Top to bottom I think the AFC South stands above the rest.

2. NFC East
This is the other division that really seems to have separated itself from the rest. They have the best team in the NFC up top, and then Washington and New York have both looked solid. If Philly can play like they did last year this could easily move into the top spot.

3. AFC West
The big guns are finally starting to play like we expected them too, which puts them here. But even with them struggling, KC is playing well, and even Oakland has been competitive. If San Diego and Denver can play like I expected them to before the year this once again is an excellent division.

4. NFC North
They haven't played great but this division is a lot better than the joke it has been the past few years. The Packers are 5-1, the Lions are playing well (nice win against Tampa), the Bears are the Bears, and the Vikings are really a couple plays away from being over .500. This is not a bad division.

5. AFC North
The Steelers are coming back down to earth, and that's not good because the rest of the divison is slightly mediocre. The Ravens are just not as good as they have been the past few years, Cincy and Cleveland both have a lot of problems defensively, as they have each given up over 30 PPG.

6. AFC East
It's pretty sad that they have a team that looks so far to be one of the most dominant teams that we have seen in a long time, and it's still the 6th best division. And that might even be a little generous. The other 3 teams are just absolutely wretched.

7. NFC South
Carolina and Tampa Bay are both solid teams (though I still think the Panthers might be a little overrated), but other than that New Orleans and Atlanta have not been impressive. The Saints are picking it up somewhat, but Atlanta is looking worse and worse.

8. NFC West
Seattle has been OK so far. Other than that, there is a Cardinals team that is actually better when Kurt Warner (with injured elbow ligaments) starts, a 49ers team that is simply dreadful offensively, and a Rams team that could challenge for 0-16. Yes, this division is bad.

Your thoughts? Would you change my rankings at all?

The Patriots are ridiculous

Earlier in the week I talked about the chances that the Patriots could go undefeated, and some seemed to feel that it was too soon to be asking that question.

Well, the Patriots now lead 42-7 near the end of the first half, and Tom Brady is 16/19 for 291 yards and 5 TD.

It is not too soon to talk about this team being undefeated. Wow.

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 7

The drive for .500 continues! I actually had a really solid week last week, so hopefully I can continue with that momentum.

Ravens (-3) over Bills
I'm not huge on the Ravens, but the Bills have not been all that impressive. Trent Edwards will get the start again, and rookie QBs generally don't fare too well against good defenses.

Jets (+6.5) over Bengals
The Bungles are a bit of a mess right now... with Chad Pennington playing for his job, I think they'll have enough to cover.

Vikings (+9.5) over Cowboys
Of course I'm taking the Vikings here... That Adrian Peterson guy is pretty good. The Vikings offense has started to turn a little bit, as the passing game looked solid last week (even if the numbers don't exactly bear it out).

Bucs (+2) over Lions
The last time we saw the Lions, they got absolutely walloped by the Redskins... now they're 2 point favorites against Tampa? Nah don't like that. The Bucs are solid defensively, and they take care of the ball offensively. That's half the battle.

Patriots (-16.5) over Dolphins
As I have said in previous weeks, I am going to keep taking the Patriots until they prove that I shouldn't. They have some talent.

Saints (-9) over Falcons
The Falcons suck, but the Saints had one big week and all of a sudden they're 9 point favorites? Hmmm. For that reason I tried talking myself into taking the Falcons and the points, but I just can't. Word is that Byron Leftwich will be starting this week... I'm sorry, but I just can't see that ending well.

Giants (-9) over 49ers
The Giants have looked extremely potent offensively this year, while the Niners have looked extremely terrible offensively, especially with Trent Dilfer at the helm. The Giants look like the easy choice, but we'll see.

Chiefs (+2.5) over Raiders
Still not sold on the Raiders because I'm not sure that they can actually pass the ball. They are 29th in the NFL in passing YPG. Larry Johnson appears to be getting on track more (though maybe that was just because they played the Bengals?)... I'll take the Chiefs.

Bears (+5.5) over Eagles
I'm really not sure what to think here... two teams that seem to have underachieved a bit (though the Bears have been badly hurt by some injuries defensively). I'll take the Bears here, but I'm not real confident.

Steelers (-3.5) over Broncos
The Broncos have been a bit of a trainwreck, and Javon Walker will again be out. I see them struggling to move the ball consistently against a stout Pittsburgh defense.

Rams (+8.5) over Seahawks
Bulger's back, which should help out the Rams offense some. Of course, it really can't get any worse. Plus, the Seahawks haven't looked all that impressive thus far. I'll take the Rams to cover.

Texans (+1.5) over Titans
I have some concerns about Vince Young... if he's not fully healthy and full able to use his running abilities, he is simply not that good right now as a pocket passer. The Titans will have lots of problems running the football, but I'll take them here.

Redskins (-8.5) over Cardinals
Tim Rattay is the Cardinals QB. I rest my case.

Colts (-3) over Jaguars
This is a tough one because it is in Jacksonville and because the Jags typically play the Colts better than anyone else (with the Patriots being the obvious exception)... still, I like the Colts to win, and 3 points is too little of a spread to take the Jags.

Last Week: 8-3-2
Season: 41-41-7

NFL Power Rankings - 10/17

OK, the power rankings are back! As always, my top 10.

1. New England Patriots - As if there was any doubt. After speculating yesterday about the possibility of them going 16-0, they have to be #1.

2. Indianapolis Colts - Again, a really easy choice. The Colts and Patriots seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league (though watch out for the Jaguars this weekend).

3. Pittsburgh Steelers - I went over some of this yesterday, but they have playmakers offensively and they are allowing less than 10 points per game defensively. The schedule hasn't exactly been the toughest in the NFL so far, but it's hard to argue with the numbers they've put up.

4. San Diego Chargers - It sure looks to me like they have figured a lot of their problems out, and the addition of Chris Chambers will add another solid playmaker to the offense. Plus, as long as LDT keeps running like he did on Sunday, the Chargers might not even need a passing game.

5. Dallas Cowboys - OK, so the Patriots eventually ran them off the field. Still, the Cowboys are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL, and still look like the best team in the NFC.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars - That decision to go with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich seems to be working out pretty well so far. Don't look now, but Garrard has a QB rating over 100 and he has yet to throw an INT this year.

7. Green Bay Packers - Yes, they have a fantastic defense. But they still have no running game and a QB with a propensity to turn the ball over. I still have a really hard time seeing these guys as a top 5 team, which is where they are ranked in most other polls.

8. Baltimore Ravens - Meh. 4-2, but I find it hard to get excited about this team because of the offense. 5 FG against the 49ers? Have to be able to get it into the endzone more.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sort of like the Ravens Lite. Very good defense, but the offense has struggled at time. Still, as long as Garcia continues to take care of the ball and make one or two big plays a game, the Bucs will be contenders in the NFC.

10. New York Giants - The offense has looked real impressive lately. Eli Manning is getting better all the time, the receivers are legitimate threats, and the multiple threats at RB are getting the job done. They should be 6-2 heading into their bye week.

What changes would you make?

Can the Patriots be beat?

With a great QB, an abundance of offensive and defensive talent, the worst division in football, and great coaching, the Patriots have looked unbeatable thus far. Through 6 games, their closest one was a 34-17 beating of the Cleveland Browns.

All of which begs the question... can the Patriots be beat? I'm not so sure.

As I see it, there are probably 3 games that could give them trouble (more on them in a second). Their other games are: @ Miami, Washington, @ Buffalo, Philadelphia, NY Jets, Miami, @ NY Giants. I would be beyond shocked if they lost any of those games.

Here are the other 3, ranked in how likely they are to lose these games (in my opinion).

3. AT Baltimore, December 3 - If healthy, Baltimore has a great defense which can at least slow New England down, and Willis McGahee can pound the ball to keep New England off the field. Still, the defense has struggled at times, and the offense has struggled with big plays and getting the ball into the end zone. A loss here for New England seems unlikely.

2. Pittsburgh, December 9 - The Steelers are 4-1 under new coach Mike Tomlin. Offensively, they have enough weapons to keep the Patriots offense honest, with Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and even Najeh Davenport at the skill position. Ben Roethlisberger is getting better and better. Defensively, the Steelers are allowing under 10 PPG. This game will be in New England, which again makes a Patriots loss unlikely, but the Steelers are the team that ended New England's last long winning streak (of course, the Pats got revenge later in the year).

3. AT Indianapolis, November 4 - Obviously this is the game that seems, at least on paper, most likely to result in a loss for the Patriots. If the Patriots are the best team in the NFL (and it certainly appears that they are), there is really no doubt that the Colts are 2nd. Plus, being that the Colts are the last team to beat the Patriots, and they have Peyton Manning at QB, they will not be intimidated by New England. On a final note, the game is in Indy. That said, I think there might be just too many offensive weapons for the Patriots. But it looks to be the game of the year, and if both teams are undefeated heading into the game, it could be the most hyped game in years. I'm not really qualified enough to say this with any certainty, but if both teams are undefeated heading into this game, it could be the most hyped regular season game ever.

That said, I think the Patriots will be undefeated this year. Watching them play, barring an injury to Tim Brady (or maybe Randy Moss), I honestly believe they are too good to be beat. They seem to be on a mission, and they have the talent and coaching to accomplish it. It certainly will be fun to watch.

What are your thoughts? Will anyone beat the Patriots? Will anyone be close?

Adrian Peterson is the most explosive RB in the NFL

He may not be the best RB in the NFL yet, because he is not a great pass catcher or blocker... but I think that Adrian Peterson is already the most explosive RB in the NFL with the ball in his hands.

He single-handedly won it for the Vikings today (with a little help from Ryan Longwell). 20 carries for 224 yards and 3 TD. He also set up the game-winning FG with a long kick return. For the game, he had nearly 360 total yards on 25 touches (20 carries, 1 reception, 4 kick returns). Wow.

Through 5 games he now has 607 yards rushing, 4 TD, and 6.3 YPC. He's also got 10 receptions for 175 yards and a receiving TD. For good measure he also has 248 yards return yards. So by my calculations, through 5 career games, Adrian Peterson has 1030 total yards.

This is why I thought Adrian Peterson would be the Rookie of the Year.