Monday, April 27, 2009

2009 NFL Draft Thoughts

Some miscellaneous thoughts on the NFL Draft that was...

- As a Vikings fan, I do like the pick of Percy Harvin at 22 in round 1. Yes, there are obviously a plethora of character concerns. He tested positive at the Combine for marijuana (meaning he is either really dumb or has a serious problem), and there have been some other concerns in the past. However, he is a top 10 talent, and has the explosiveness to make a huge difference. With a veteran team and now veteran coach, hopefully that will be able to quell some of the character issues. If that's the case, he adds another option for either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels (along with Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, and Visanthe Schiancoe), which should help the offense come closer to matching the defense, which was excellent in 2008. If that's the case, the Vikings could take the next step.

- I'm not saying anything new when I say this... but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems a lot like Troy Williamson... fast, suspect hands, limited college productivity... let's just say I was scared before the draft that the Vikings might take him at #22.

- Have to love what the hated Packers did on day 1... BJ Raji and Clay Matthews should immediately help a bad defense.

- NFL Draft grades are so stupid... seriously, it takes at least a few years to determine that. Second, it generally rewards those teams that have a lot of picks. Not that draft grades matter even one iota in the grand scheme of things, it just irks me for some reason to see them... like anyone has any idea how good a team drafted one day after the draft? If they really did, then why is the draft always so unpredictable?

- I think Mark Sanchez will be the best QB from this draft... Stafford has amazing physical tools but he has never been as consistent of a college player as you'd hope to see. Sanchez doesn't have the game experience of Stafford but I like his toughness and consistency. And I'm not a big Josh Freeman guy.

- Love what Baltimore did getting Michael Oher at 23... great value there. And I really like the Jags, who had an awful offensive line last year, getting tackles with their first 2 picks in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton.

- Crabtree at 10... I'm with everyone else in that I love the pick. He should be a solid starter very early on in his career and will be a great help to whoever eventually becomes the QB in San Francisco.

What were your thoughts?

Monday, March 02, 2009

Thoughts on the Vikings Pickup of Sage Rosenfels

The Vikings picked up Sage Rosenfels from the Houston Texans for a 4th round pick last week, which drew some not-so-inspired reactions from Vikings fans. Rosenfels is not a star QB, has not proven long-term consistency in the NFL, and is turnover-prone at times. For fans hoping for a Kurt Warner or Matt Cassel, Rosenfels is a disappointment.

But I like the move.

Rosenfels is an accurate QB, which a career completion percentage of over 60% for his career and around 65% for the past 2 years. With Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerrotte last year, accuracy was not the forte of Vikings QBs, and receivers couldn't be really sure about where the ball was going to end up. Rosenfels is accurate and can make some plays down the field.

Most of all, he wouldn't be asked to do a whole lot. The Vikings offense is obviously based around Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, and all the Vikings need is a QB that will be able to take advantage of all of the attention paid to the RBs. Jackson and Frerrotte were able to do that in stretches last year, but not consistently. Rosenfels has shown the ability to be more consistent in attacking defenses and finding weaknesses.

Of course, Rosenfels will have to beat out Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job, which is no certainty. Jackson played well in the regular season down the stretch, and no doubt Brad Childress would prefer that the younger, more athletically gifted player win the QB battle. Also, Rosenfels would have to be more careful with the ball and cut down on turnovers. With the running game and defense that the Vikings have, they don't need a QB that will be forcing things and taking unnecessary risks. Rosenfels has shown the tendency to do those things in his career, which he will need to cut back on.

If Rosenfels can cut down on turnovers and take advantages of the mismatches that AD provides, then it will be a great use of a 4th round pick by the Minnesota Vikings. If he works out, they will be able to take another step toward the Super Bowl. If it doesn't work out, then Brad Childress will likely lose his job and there will be wholesale changes for the Vikings next season.

No pressure Sage.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Will the Boston Celtics repeat?

Once again, the Boston Celtics look to be one of the best teams in the NBA, and possess a very legitimate chance to repeat as World Champions and win their 18th title. They will be very legitimate contenders, as they returned almost all of the pieces from their championship run a year ago.

However, the path to the title appears to be a little tougher this year than it was last year. For one thing, there are more legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference. The Cleveland Cavaliers took Boston to 7 games in the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago, and they appear to be even stronger this year. With the addition of Mo Williams and the continued maturation of LeBron James (he has become, almost unquestionably, the best and most complete player in the NBA), the Cavs will be a very tough out. Joining the Celtics and Cavs this year is the Orlando Magic, who are playing as good of basketball as anyone right now. With superstar Dwight Howard down low and a bevy of shooters around him, the Magic have the firepower and tenacity to beat anyone in a 7-game series.

Out of the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers appear even stronger this year than they were last year, when they battled the Celtics in the Finals. This is due to a number of reasons. One, the health of Andrew Bynum. He was hurt last year and missed the Finals, but having him back gives them another low post presence, as well as helping their depth, as it allows Lamar Odom to come off of the bench. Two, having Pau Gasol for a full year helps with chemisty. The triangle offense is all about knowing what the players around you are going to do, and so having that extra experience playing with Gasol helps. Third, the continued maturation of the young guys. Players like Jordan Farmar and Trevor Ariza are very valuable role players, and the extra experience will only help them. The Lakers will be prime time contenders.

That said, the Celtics cupboard certainly isn't bare. Kevin Garnett is still the premier defender in the NBA, Ray Allen still has the quickest release in the NBA, and Paul Pierce has established himself as a superstar. Plus, the Celtics are a veteran crew who have proven that they know how to get it done in crunch time, and will not be afraid to answer the bell again in the postseason.

But while Boston will certainly have a great shot, I wouldn't bet that they will repeat and win another NBA championship. Bottom line, there are simply too many other great teams out there, from Cleveland and Orlando in the East to Los Angeles in the West, I'd rather bet on the field than picking the Celtics to repeat.

I originally wrote this article here.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Super Bowl Prediction


On paper, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the edge over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. But as Kenny Mayne says, "We know that these games aren't played on paper, but by the little men inside our TV sets."

First off, how did these teams get here? The Pittsburgh Steelers took a slightly more conventional path. They won the difficult AFC North with a 12-4 record, receiving a first-round bye into the playoffs. Once there, they beat the upstart San Diego Chargers in the Divisional Round before taking out their bitter rival the Baltimore Ravens in the Conference Championship by a score of 23-14. They come into the Super Bowl tough and battle tested.
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The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, are not a team that we expected to be playing into October. They limped into the playoffs at 9-7, getting in only because they won the worst division in football. During the regular season, they went 6-0 against teams in the NFC West, and 3-7 against everyone else. They ended the regular season playing really bad football, struggling after they clinched the division, and looked like the prime example of a team that would be making an early exit. But then, something clicked. They had a home playoff game against wildcard Atlanta, and played inspired football, mixing things up offensively and getting to QB Matt Ryan repeatedly en route to a 30-24 victory. That brought them a date with the Carolina Panthers, a team many thought might be the best in the NFC. Instead of being intimidated, they went into Carolina and shocked them, dominating the game for a 33-13 win. In the Conference Championship, they got another home game, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles, and Kurt Warner led them to a late TD drive for a 32-25 win in one of the best games of the playoffs. That got them a date with the Steelers here in the Super Bowl.

For Pittsburgh, everything starts with the defense, a unit which might be the best in the NFL. Coach Mike Tomlin sets the tone for a tough, aggressive unit, and they go after the QB all day long. The defense is led by James Harrison, the best LB in the NFL this year, finishing with 16 sacks and 7 FF. The LBs are athletic and can get to the QB on a consistent basis, which stops the opposing offense from ever really getting into a rhythm. Even if the QB does have time, he has to look out for Troy Polamalu in the secondary, who finished with 7 INT. The offense of the Steelers is a pretty balanced unit, with gritty QB Ben Roethlisberger leading the charges, throwing the ball to explosive Santonio Holmes, or Hines Ward, who is perhaps the best short-yardage WR in the NFL. They have multiple options running the football, from Willie Parker to Mewelde Moore to Gary Russell. This allows them to simply go with the hot hand there.

In Arizona, offense is the name of the game. They have an explosive unit, and can score from anywhere on the field with their passing game. Kurt Warner has resurrected his career, throwing for nearly 4600 yards and 30 TDs this year. He showed that when he has time, he can still be the most accurate passer in the NFL, fitting the ball in places where you wouldn't expect it to fit, and throwing the deep ball with accuracy. On the outside, they have perhaps the best 1-2 combo at WR in the NFL. The leader is Larry Fitzgerald, who has seemed to break out here in the playoffs to stake his claim as the best WR in football. He has incredible hands, uses his body well, and has deceptive speed. He finished with 1431 yards and 12 TD in the regular season, and has over 400 yards receiving in 3 playoff games. He is flanked by Anquan Boldin, a tough WR who is not afraid to catch the ball in traffic. At certain points this year he has looked even better than Fitzgerald, and he makes sure that teams can't just key on stopping 1 WR. They need to work on balancing the passing game with a rushing game so that defenses can't just tee off on Warner, but make no mistake, they will be able to put some points on the board.
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Arizona has more momentum coming into the game, riding their improbable run into the Super Bowl. And in a 1 game Super Bowl, anything can happen. However, I like the team with more talent here, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have shown their toughness all season long, and should be able to put pressure on Kurt Warner to at least slow down the Arizona passing attack. The Cardinals will be able to make a game of it, but I like the Steelers to win it, 27-17.

What's your prediction?

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Sporting Injuries - To Yourself and Your Career

This post was contributed by Kelly Kilpatrick, who writes on the subject of top sport management colleges. She invites your feedback at kellykilpatrick24 at gmail dot com

There’s nothing that brings on the adrenaline rush like sports does – whether you’re playing or watching, no matter if you’re a sportsman or a fan, you feel a thrill that courses through your blood each time you win, and a devastating numbness that refuses to leave after a loss. Sports can drive men and women crazy – that would explain the fights that take place on and off the field, the head butts and shoves that lead to red cards and fouls, and the fisticuffs and brawls between drunken fans in crowded stadiums.

If there’s one thing worse than losing a match, it’s an injury sustained on the field. At the moment it happens, more than the immediate pain, it’s the fear of never being able to play again that’s in the mind of every sportsperson worth their salt. Some injuries are temporary – they disappear with adequate rest, medication, and physiotherapy. But there are others that, even if treated, ensure that you never play again. And even if you do, you’re never really at the top of your game like you were before.

Anyone passionate about sports is in the same boat, even if they’re not professional players. Doctors and sports clinics will tell you for a fact that the first question you hear after an injury is – When will I be able to play again? No one ever asks the dreaded question – Will I ever be able to play again? It’s always a question of when, as if the possibility of never being able to play just doesn’t exist at all.

Not many athletes and sportspersons are able to bounce back to the same level of performance after an injury, especially one that’s pretty serious. But there are players who are too valuable to be sidelined just because they’re injured. And so the controversies rise when they’re allowed to play on in spite of being injured. Of course, temporary medical relief and painkillers are administered, but then, both the management and the players know that they’re risking serious damage in the long term for a gain in the short term.

But it’s a difficult choice for players to make – they know that injuries can effectively cut short promising careers. And so they’re willing to take the risk, they’re willing to pump themselves full of drugs and play one more match, especially if it’s a world series or any other major event. And when you ask them if they don’t fear a lifelong disability because of this risk, the answer comes as a surprise only if you’re not an ardent sports fan – it’s worse sitting out now than facing a chronic disability at some time in the future. Yes, sports is all about passion, even when it’s at the cost of common sense.

This post was contributed by Kelly Kilpatrick, who writes on the subject of top sport management colleges. She invites your feedback at kellykilpatrick24 at gmail dot com

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Thanksgiving Day College Basketball Thoughts

As everyone prepares to feast on turkey (myself included!), some thoughts on the college basketball season that has been so far:

Some observations of the college basketball season so far as we hit Thanksgiving:

- After watching UNC take out Notre Dame in the championship of the Maui Invitational... hard to see UNC getting too much competition this year in the ACC. That offense is simply dynamite. We obviously know all about Hansbrough... but when Ty Lawson is on his game (as he was against ND, with 22 points and 10 assists), they're almost impossible to slow down. He might be the quickest guy down the court in America.

- Also, props to Kyle McAlarney... 39 points, including 10 threes against the Tar Heels. It takes him roughly 0.2 seconds to get into shooting position. What a quick release, and with all types of range too.

- Blake Griffin was already looking like a good candidate for the top spot in next year's draft... and that was before he went out and is averaging 27 and 19 through 5 games.

- The Big East will be as strong as ever... Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Notre Dame all in the top 10. Plus, Syracuse looks like it'll finally have a say come tournament time. Marquette has a lot of talent. Villanova and Georgetown are both ranked. West Virginia returns a lot. Should be a lot of fun.

- Watch out for Baylor... LaceDarius Dunn is explosive.

- Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's in the WCC might be the most exciting 1-2 race in any conference in America. The Zags are very balanced and talented. They've got about 6 or 7 guys that could legitimately start basically anywhere in America. But St. Mary's has the best player in the conference in Patrick Mills... after a good performance in the Olympics over the summer, he should continue to improve and be a force as a sophomore. And guys like Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson provide balance down low. It'll be a fun conference race to watch... circle January 29th and February 12th on your calendar.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

NBA Opening Day Thoughts

I wasn't actually able to watch any of the games, but my observations based on highlights and box scores:

- Derrick Rose is really good. Obviously we know he's not a great shooter at this point, but when you get 9 assists, and 3 steals as a PG in your first game, you're doing something right. If only Mike D'Antoni had waited and taken the Bulls job instead of New York.

- When Tyrus Thomas came out of college I thought he was a poor man's cross between Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire, but he's never really played consistently the first 2 years. So I'm pretty excited to see what he'll do if he gets PT like he did tonight (41 mins). The results were encouraging... 15 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block. And he's still only 22. Crazy. Bulls could be better than everyone thinks.

- Joe Alexander, DNP Coach's Decision. Never good for a top 10 pick. (though maybe there's more to the story that I just don't know about)

- So the Celtics are still really good at defense. And Paul Pierce should probably be considered (if he isn't already) a top 5 NBA player, maybe top 3. But got to be concerned about Ray Allen if you're the Celts... he obviously showed signs of slowing down during the playoff run last year, and while it's only 1 game (against a good defensive team to boot), 8 points on 2/9 shooting in 41 minutes isn't exactly encouraging.

- I guess it's a little early to anoint Portland as a playoff team already. Anyone know why Greg Oden only played 13 minutes?

- As long as Lamar Odom remains content in his role at 6th man (obviously some skepticism here), Lakers certainly look like the team to beat on paper.

What did you notice?

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

NFL Power Rankings - 9/23

With 3 weeks of the NFL season in the books, it's time to look at the best so far... here's my top 10 power rankings in the NFL after 3 games.

1. Dallas Cowboys - Hard to deny that they're the best team in the NFL right now. The offense is extremely explosive and is averaging over 32 PPG. They have wins at Cleveland and Green Bay, and at home against Philly. The defense looked very good on Sunday night, which is a scary thing for other NFC teams.

2. Philadelphia Eagles - After hanging with Dallas in Big D and overpowering Pittsburgh, the Eagles look like legitimate contenders. The health of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook will always be a concern, along with the fact that they play in the toughest division in the NFL, but the Eagles look like they'll be getting back to the playoffs.

3. Tennessee Titans - If you were going to bet on football, it would have been hard to predict Tennessee as the best team in the AFC, but they've looked good so far, even with backup Kerry Collins. Their running combo of LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson has been outstanding, and their defense is allowing less than 10 PPG. Vince Young who?

4. New York Giants - The Super Bowl champs are 3-0, but they haven't looked as convincing as some other teams. In particular, they struggled with the winless Bengals, taking things to OT before winning. But Eli Manning looks like he has continued with the improvement shown in last year's playoffs, and they have many threats out of the backfield.

5. Baltimore Ravens - The punishing Ravens D is back, allowing only 20 points in 2 games. The offense has not had any explosion under Joe Flacco, but Ray Lewis has the defense playing at a very high level.

6. Green Bay Packers - Though they succumbed to the Cowboys, they have looked solid so far. Aaron Rodgers has shown he can make all the throws, and is even displaying a nice amount of athleticism. With a young defense, if they can just simply continue to improve the running game, they're the favorites in the NFC North once again.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers - They took a beating from Philly, but they looked like one of the best teams in the League over the first 2 weeks. The line has to do a much, much better job of protecting Big Ben, but if they do, the Steelers have all the pieces in place for a Super Bowl run. They are very good throwing and running the ball, and combine that with a stout defense and solid coaching from Mike Tomlin.

8. Denver Broncos - They're 3-0, but it hasn't been easy. They've gotten some good calls from refs, and the defense has been porous at times, but the offense has carried them. Jay Cutler is looking like a Pro Bowler, and Brandon Marshall is 2nd in the NFL in receptions (behind Reggie Bush) even though he missed one game. They're 3-0 with a date against Kansas City coming up, which looks to spell 4-0.

9. San Diego Chargers - The offense looked pretty darn good on Monday night, racking up 48 against the Jets. They could very easily be 3-0, as they essentially lost their first 2 games on the final play. My money is still on them to win the AFC West.

10. Buffalo Bills - The Bills are just a solid team that doesn't beat itself. They may not be a powerful offense, but Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch are both real good players that get the job done. The Bills are 3-0 and look like they might be the class of the AFC East now that Tom Brady is gone.

What are your thoughts?

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Giants/Redskins Pick

Not sure if I'll have time to do my picks against the spread this year, but I'll try. And with the season opener tonight, I'll give my pick here for the defending champion Giants taking on the Washington Redskins.

I'll take the Redskins (+4.5).

Of course, if you'll remember how my picks last year went (when I was under .500), you definitely won't want to put any stock into the picks. But it's fun to try.

I like Jason Campbell to take another step forward for the Skins this year, helping lead the Skins. If Clinton Portis can stay healthy again, he's a top 10 back. Plus, I'm not sold on the Giants this year... obviously Eli has taken a step forward, but can he do it on a consistent basis? Will Plaxico be focused every week after the Super Bowl win? Can Brandon Jacobs stay healthy? Can the defense play as well as they did at the end of last year? Lots of questions.

Giants 20, Redskins 17.

Friday, August 01, 2008

Mini Ballpark Tour

Well guys, I'll be off this week touring some ballparks in the Midwest and just generally having a good time. I'll be going to these games:

Monday, August 4 - Boston @ Kansas City
Tuesday, August 5 - Los Angeles @ St. Louis
Wednesday, August 6 - Houston @ Chicago Cubs
Thursday, August 7 - Detroit @ Chicago White Sox
Friday, August 8 - Washington @ Milwaukee

Should be amazing fun! I'll update when I'm back!