NBA Draft 2009 Preview: Shooting Guards

This article can also be found here.

If you are looking for a franchise shooting guard in the 2009 NBA Draft, you best look elsewhere. There are some solid rotation players, and maybe someday an all-star or two amongst the group, but it is a position that is lacking in both star power and depth this year.

The head of the class is James Harden from Arizona St. In two years, he has helped turn the Sun Devils program around, being one of the most productive players in the country. While he is not blessed with great athletic ability, he is a very crafty, refined player. He is a silky smooth left-hander, with the ability to both hit the outside shot and get to the rim and score. He can rebound, pass, and defend. He will not wow you in any area, but he is just a very solid player. He will be helped by the weakness of the draft, as it should propel him into the top 5 and likely the top SG off the board.

Next there is Tyreke Evans, who is more of a combo guard from Memphis. While he predominantly played the point in his one year, shooting guard looks like his more natural position. He is a very athletically gifted player, and should be able to get to the rim at the next level. If 2 guard does wind up being where he plays in the NBA, he should be able to score and defend very well and be a solid starter on a good team.

Next is DeMar DeRozan from USC. He is one of the 3 most athletically gifted and overall talented players in the draft, but his production did not match his talent in his lone season at USC. He has all of the physcial tools necessary to be a great player, but he was plagued by inconsistency. At times he looked like a star, and at other times he looked like, well, a freshman. If he can continue to improve his jump shot and work on bringing his best every night, he could be a steal for someone in the late lottery.

After that are a couple of tweeners... guys that played the 3 in college but might be better suited for the 2 in the NBA. Gerald Henderson from Duke is one of the most athletic players in the Draft, but he will likely fall out of the lottery. There are questions about his jumpshot and handle, and so it's hard to project his role in the NBA. He can defend, and he can use his athleticism on the break (which makes him ideal for a running team), but he might be a little limited other than that. Terrence Williams from Louisville is a guy that got better and better as his career went on. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but he solid all across the board. He is a solid shooter, great rebounder, and great passer. He can be a really good role player on a solid team.

So there are no real stars at the SG position of this year's NBA Draft, and there's not a lot of depth, but there are some guys that should be solid NBA players. James Harden looks like the best of the lot, but there are a few guys here that should have nice, productive careers in the NBA.

NBA Draft 2009 Preview: Point Guards

This article can also be found here.

With the NBA moving more and more towards faster basketball by rewarding the drive-and-kick style of offense, point guards are more important than ever in the NBA. Looking at the impact of guys like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and even Derrick Rose this year, having a good PG can completely turn around a franchise. In the 2009 NBA Draft, point guard looks like the strongest position, both in terms of talent and the top and depth throughout the first round.

The first point guard off the board will almost certainly be Ricky Rubio, the youngster from Spain. He showed his talent and potential in the 2008 Olympics, where as a 17-year old the Spaniard more than held his own against the best competition in the world. There is definitely a lot to like about Rubio. He is a true PG, with innate ability to lead an offense, get others involved, and take charge and score when his team needs it. He is creative offensively, and can find passing lanes and create plays seemingly out of nothing. He is not a great shooter yet, but he has very good form, and his great FT shooting (80%) suggests he will grow into a very good shooter. To top it all off, he is very charismatic on and off the court, which is perfect in the business in the NBA. He's the best PG in the draft, and he could go as high as 2 to Memphis and no lower than 4 to Sacramento.

After that, things get a little more interesting. The next wave of guys to go look like hybrid PG/SG rather than true point guards. First, there is Stephen Curry from Davidson. He played mostly SG in college (though did transition to PG his junior year), but will likely be too small to play SG in the NBA. But he is the best shooter in the draft, a prolific scorer who can create his own shot or get one off quickly off of a screen, and he will be a potent offensive threat in the NBA. There are some concerns about whether he can effectively run an offense or be a solid defender at the next level, but he did help alleviate some of thos with his play this season.

Next there's Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, two highly touted one-and-dones with loads of talent. Evans played PG at Memphis last season as a freshman, but the 2 guard might be his more natural position. He can score and defend, but there are certainly some questions about how well he can an offense. Jrue Holiday has all the tools to be a very good NBA player, but his production did not jump out at anyone in his one year at UCLA. He has the tools to be a great defender, but he is not a very natural scorer right now. Also, though he played PG and that looks like his natural position, he didn't play it full-time last year with the Bruins, as they had Darren Collison to help carry that load.

Perhaps the biggest unknown in the whole draft is Brandon Jennings. He was a high prospect before last season, and had committed to Arizona before deciding to spend the year playing in Europe. However, his playing time was sporadic, and scouts really did not get a great chance to watch him play. In addition, they haven't been able to see him in very many workouts either. The talent certainly appears to be there, but there are a lot of unknowns surrounding him, which could cause his stock to drop.

The class is rounded off with guys who produced a lot at the college level, but who have questions about how their game will translate at the NBA level. First is Johnny Flynn from Syracuse. He has all of the physical tools of strength and quickness that you look for, but there are concerns about his height and shooting ability from the outside. Then there is Ty Lawson from North Carolina, who might be the quickest and fastest player in the draft, but again, there are concerns about his height and shooting ability. Eric Maynor was a great college player for VCU, and he is certainly remembered for his game-winner against Duke in the NCAA Tournament. He is an opportunistic defender and good leader offensively, but he doesn't really stand out in any one area. Last, there is Darren Collison, who may have been a lottery pick if he had come out after his sophomore year, but now might struggle to get picked in the first round. You know what you are getting with him... great shooter and great on-the-ball defender. There are some questions about his size, but he should be a productive NBA player.

So the point guard position looks to be the deepest in this year's NBA Draft. With star power of Rubio at the top, and depth throughout the first round, look for many point guards to be taken in this year's NBA Draft. There might not be any future MVP's within the group, but there will be a lot of solid NBA players.

NBA Draft 2009: Center Prospects

This article can also be seen here.

Although the NBA appears to be changing to more of a transition game dominated by guards and wing players, big men can still rule the game. With a dearth of high-quality big men, teams are always searching for centers that can play enar the basket, affecting the game on both ends of the floor. For that reason, they are sometimes willing to reach on big men, or take projects who have the potential to be game-changing centers down the road.
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The 2009 NBA Draft appears to be a fairly weak draft class, but there is still some talent at the center position.

Assuming we count Blake Griffin from Oklahoma as a Power Forward, Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet looks like he will be the first center taken in the 2009 NBA Draft. At 7'3'', he is still a very raw player, but has matured significantly on the court during his 3 years as a member of the Connecticut Huskies. He is a huge presence on the defensive end, and has the ability to alter games by blocking shots or forcing opponents to alter a ton of shots. Offensively, he is getting better but is still very raw, and scores most of his points on either putbacks or dunks.He is a project on the offensive end, but should make an immediate impact on the defensive end with his size and shot blocking instincts. He looks to be a top 3 pick in the draft.

BJ Mullens from Ohio St. appears to be the only other center who looks to be a viable first-round candidate if he chooses to stay in the draft. He only played 1 year for the Buckeyes, and is very much a long-term prospect who will be drafted based on his potential. He was a talented recruit coming out of high school, but had an up-and-down season for Thad Matta and the Buckeyes. He only averaged 8.8 PPG and 4.7 RPG in his freshman campaign, which are not exactly inspiring numbers, especially since he was a year older than many other freshmen in his class. He is very talented athletically, but there are concerns about how good of a basketball player he actually is. His basketball IQ is not that great, and his rebounding numbers are very mediocre for someone his size. Plus, there are concerns about his consistency, because that was lacking. His physical tools will probably get him drafted sometime in the first round by a team enamored with his talented, but it could be a while before he produces in the NBA.

These are really the 2 legit center prospects in this draft. Big men like Blake Griffin, Jordan Hill, or James Johnson probably will be able to play center at times, but they are more natural power forwards. So with the 2009 NBA Draft class shaping up to be a very weak one, this is most obvious when looking at the centers, which will probably have minimal impact in the NBA outside of a couple players.

NBA Conference Finals Thoughts

We are in the midst of two great conference finals matchups. In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic are knotted at 1 game apiece. In the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers lead the Denver Nuggets 2 games to 1.

First, a look at the East, which has been epic through 2 games. After Rashard Lewis won game 1 with a late 3-pointer, LeBron James answered with a buzzer beating 3 of his own, evening the series. Thoughts from this series:

- LeBron James, of course, has been ridiculously good. He is the best basketball player on the planet, and he's showing it through the first 2 games. After being almost unstoppable in game 1 (20/30 shooting? Are you serious?), he followed that up with 35 points and the aforementioned game-winner in game 2. With the defense focusing on him, he is shooting a high percentage, playing great defense, and getting good looks for his teammates.

- However, he can't do it on his own. In Game 21, Mo Williams had 19 points, but it took him 21 shots to do it. Delonte West only had 12 points in 46 minutes. Zydrunas Ilgauskas only had 12 points on 5/13 shooting. LeBron will get these guys lots of great looks, so they are going to need to hit shots.

- Dwight Howard needs to dominate for the Magic. The Cavaliers have nobody that can guard him (Zydrunas Ilgauskas is not even close to quick enough), so there is no reason for Howard to only have 10 points on 3/8 shooting. His average needs to be up in the 20s for the Magic to win this series.

- I love watching Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu play when they are firing at all cylinders. Great shooters, good handles, good passers... a fantastic wing combination.

- Courtney Lee is showing me some good offensive game a lot more quickly in his career than I thought he would.

- Still like the Cavs in this series... LeBron is simply too good. I'll go with Cavs in 6.

Then there is the West, where the Lakers victory on Saturday gave them a 2-1 series lead... all 3 games have been closely contested and have come down to the wire, where any of the games conceivably could have been won by either team. Thoughts:

- Kobe Bryant was a man in Game 3, carrying the Lakers down the stretch with 41 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 5 assists. Clutch 3 to put the Lakers up late and then lots of late free throws.

- Kenyon Martin with one of the worst inbounds passes I have seen to all but seal the fate of the Nuggets in game 3. Give credit to Lamar Odom for great defense on the ball out of bounds, but that was still an atrocious pass.

- Don't see how the Lakers can win an NBA title if they get as little contributions from their PGs as they did in game 23. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown basically added nothing to the table.

- Carmelo Anthony, where did you go in the 2nd half? With his disappearance and the struggle of JR Smith to score (he played well in other areas but didn't add much scoring the ball - 4/15 shooting), the Nuggets just didn't have enough offense.

- Well done Bird Man... 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks in 24 minutes. The man is an athletic specimen.

Hope you guys are enjoying these 2 series' as much as I am... it has been excellent so far, hope we can continue to have great basketball games!

2009 NFL Draft Thoughts

Some miscellaneous thoughts on the NFL Draft that was...

- As a Vikings fan, I do like the pick of Percy Harvin at 22 in round 1. Yes, there are obviously a plethora of character concerns. He tested positive at the Combine for marijuana (meaning he is either really dumb or has a serious problem), and there have been some other concerns in the past. However, he is a top 10 talent, and has the explosiveness to make a huge difference. With a veteran team and now veteran coach, hopefully that will be able to quell some of the character issues. If that's the case, he adds another option for either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels (along with Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, and Visanthe Schiancoe), which should help the offense come closer to matching the defense, which was excellent in 2008. If that's the case, the Vikings could take the next step.

- I'm not saying anything new when I say this... but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems a lot like Troy Williamson... fast, suspect hands, limited college productivity... let's just say I was scared before the draft that the Vikings might take him at #22.

- Have to love what the hated Packers did on day 1... BJ Raji and Clay Matthews should immediately help a bad defense.

- NFL Draft grades are so stupid... seriously, it takes at least a few years to determine that. Second, it generally rewards those teams that have a lot of picks. Not that draft grades matter even one iota in the grand scheme of things, it just irks me for some reason to see them... like anyone has any idea how good a team drafted one day after the draft? If they really did, then why is the draft always so unpredictable?

- I think Mark Sanchez will be the best QB from this draft... Stafford has amazing physical tools but he has never been as consistent of a college player as you'd hope to see. Sanchez doesn't have the game experience of Stafford but I like his toughness and consistency. And I'm not a big Josh Freeman guy.

- Love what Baltimore did getting Michael Oher at 23... great value there. And I really like the Jags, who had an awful offensive line last year, getting tackles with their first 2 picks in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton.

- Crabtree at 10... I'm with everyone else in that I love the pick. He should be a solid starter very early on in his career and will be a great help to whoever eventually becomes the QB in San Francisco.

What were your thoughts?

Thoughts on the Vikings Pickup of Sage Rosenfels

The Vikings picked up Sage Rosenfels from the Houston Texans for a 4th round pick last week, which drew some not-so-inspired reactions from Vikings fans. Rosenfels is not a star QB, has not proven long-term consistency in the NFL, and is turnover-prone at times. For fans hoping for a Kurt Warner or Matt Cassel, Rosenfels is a disappointment.

But I like the move.

Rosenfels is an accurate QB, which a career completion percentage of over 60% for his career and around 65% for the past 2 years. With Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerrotte last year, accuracy was not the forte of Vikings QBs, and receivers couldn't be really sure about where the ball was going to end up. Rosenfels is accurate and can make some plays down the field.

Most of all, he wouldn't be asked to do a whole lot. The Vikings offense is obviously based around Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, and all the Vikings need is a QB that will be able to take advantage of all of the attention paid to the RBs. Jackson and Frerrotte were able to do that in stretches last year, but not consistently. Rosenfels has shown the ability to be more consistent in attacking defenses and finding weaknesses.

Of course, Rosenfels will have to beat out Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job, which is no certainty. Jackson played well in the regular season down the stretch, and no doubt Brad Childress would prefer that the younger, more athletically gifted player win the QB battle. Also, Rosenfels would have to be more careful with the ball and cut down on turnovers. With the running game and defense that the Vikings have, they don't need a QB that will be forcing things and taking unnecessary risks. Rosenfels has shown the tendency to do those things in his career, which he will need to cut back on.

If Rosenfels can cut down on turnovers and take advantages of the mismatches that AD provides, then it will be a great use of a 4th round pick by the Minnesota Vikings. If he works out, they will be able to take another step toward the Super Bowl. If it doesn't work out, then Brad Childress will likely lose his job and there will be wholesale changes for the Vikings next season.

No pressure Sage.

Will the Boston Celtics repeat?

Once again, the Boston Celtics look to be one of the best teams in the NBA, and possess a very legitimate chance to repeat as World Champions and win their 18th title. They will be very legitimate contenders, as they returned almost all of the pieces from their championship run a year ago.

However, the path to the title appears to be a little tougher this year than it was last year. For one thing, there are more legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference. The Cleveland Cavaliers took Boston to 7 games in the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago, and they appear to be even stronger this year. With the addition of Mo Williams and the continued maturation of LeBron James (he has become, almost unquestionably, the best and most complete player in the NBA), the Cavs will be a very tough out. Joining the Celtics and Cavs this year is the Orlando Magic, who are playing as good of basketball as anyone right now. With superstar Dwight Howard down low and a bevy of shooters around him, the Magic have the firepower and tenacity to beat anyone in a 7-game series.

Out of the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers appear even stronger this year than they were last year, when they battled the Celtics in the Finals. This is due to a number of reasons. One, the health of Andrew Bynum. He was hurt last year and missed the Finals, but having him back gives them another low post presence, as well as helping their depth, as it allows Lamar Odom to come off of the bench. Two, having Pau Gasol for a full year helps with chemisty. The triangle offense is all about knowing what the players around you are going to do, and so having that extra experience playing with Gasol helps. Third, the continued maturation of the young guys. Players like Jordan Farmar and Trevor Ariza are very valuable role players, and the extra experience will only help them. The Lakers will be prime time contenders.

That said, the Celtics cupboard certainly isn't bare. Kevin Garnett is still the premier defender in the NBA, Ray Allen still has the quickest release in the NBA, and Paul Pierce has established himself as a superstar. Plus, the Celtics are a veteran crew who have proven that they know how to get it done in crunch time, and will not be afraid to answer the bell again in the postseason.

But while Boston will certainly have a great shot, I wouldn't bet that they will repeat and win another NBA championship. Bottom line, there are simply too many other great teams out there, from Cleveland and Orlando in the East to Los Angeles in the West, I'd rather bet on the field than picking the Celtics to repeat.

I originally wrote this article here.

Super Bowl Prediction

On paper, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the edge over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. But as Kenny Mayne says, "We know that these games aren't played on paper, but by the little men inside our TV sets."

First off, how did these teams get here? The Pittsburgh Steelers took a slightly more conventional path. They won the difficult AFC North with a 12-4 record, receiving a first-round bye into the playoffs. Once there, they beat the upstart San Diego Chargers in the Divisional Round before taking out their bitter rival the Baltimore Ravens in the Conference Championship by a score of 23-14. They come into the Super Bowl tough and battle tested.
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The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, are not a team that we expected to be playing into October. They limped into the playoffs at 9-7, getting in only because they won the worst division in football. During the regular season, they went 6-0 against teams in the NFC West, and 3-7 against everyone else. They ended the regular season playing really bad football, struggling after they clinched the division, and looked like the prime example of a team that would be making an early exit. But then, something clicked. They had a home playoff game against wildcard Atlanta, and played inspired football, mixing things up offensively and getting to QB Matt Ryan repeatedly en route to a 30-24 victory. That brought them a date with the Carolina Panthers, a team many thought might be the best in the NFC. Instead of being intimidated, they went into Carolina and shocked them, dominating the game for a 33-13 win. In the Conference Championship, they got another home game, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles, and Kurt Warner led them to a late TD drive for a 32-25 win in one of the best games of the playoffs. That got them a date with the Steelers here in the Super Bowl.

For Pittsburgh, everything starts with the defense, a unit which might be the best in the NFL. Coach Mike Tomlin sets the tone for a tough, aggressive unit, and they go after the QB all day long. The defense is led by James Harrison, the best LB in the NFL this year, finishing with 16 sacks and 7 FF. The LBs are athletic and can get to the QB on a consistent basis, which stops the opposing offense from ever really getting into a rhythm. Even if the QB does have time, he has to look out for Troy Polamalu in the secondary, who finished with 7 INT. The offense of the Steelers is a pretty balanced unit, with gritty QB Ben Roethlisberger leading the charges, throwing the ball to explosive Santonio Holmes, or Hines Ward, who is perhaps the best short-yardage WR in the NFL. They have multiple options running the football, from Willie Parker to Mewelde Moore to Gary Russell. This allows them to simply go with the hot hand there.

In Arizona, offense is the name of the game. They have an explosive unit, and can score from anywhere on the field with their passing game. Kurt Warner has resurrected his career, throwing for nearly 4600 yards and 30 TDs this year. He showed that when he has time, he can still be the most accurate passer in the NFL, fitting the ball in places where you wouldn't expect it to fit, and throwing the deep ball with accuracy. On the outside, they have perhaps the best 1-2 combo at WR in the NFL. The leader is Larry Fitzgerald, who has seemed to break out here in the playoffs to stake his claim as the best WR in football. He has incredible hands, uses his body well, and has deceptive speed. He finished with 1431 yards and 12 TD in the regular season, and has over 400 yards receiving in 3 playoff games. He is flanked by Anquan Boldin, a tough WR who is not afraid to catch the ball in traffic. At certain points this year he has looked even better than Fitzgerald, and he makes sure that teams can't just key on stopping 1 WR. They need to work on balancing the passing game with a rushing game so that defenses can't just tee off on Warner, but make no mistake, they will be able to put some points on the board.
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Arizona has more momentum coming into the game, riding their improbable run into the Super Bowl. And in a 1 game Super Bowl, anything can happen. However, I like the team with more talent here, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have shown their toughness all season long, and should be able to put pressure on Kurt Warner to at least slow down the Arizona passing attack. The Cardinals will be able to make a game of it, but I like the Steelers to win it, 27-17.

What's your prediction?

Sporting Injuries - To Yourself and Your Career

This post was contributed by Kelly Kilpatrick, who writes on the subject of top sport management colleges. She invites your feedback at kellykilpatrick24 at gmail dot com

There’s nothing that brings on the adrenaline rush like sports does – whether you’re playing or watching, no matter if you’re a sportsman or a fan, you feel a thrill that courses through your blood each time you win, and a devastating numbness that refuses to leave after a loss. Sports can drive men and women crazy – that would explain the fights that take place on and off the field, the head butts and shoves that lead to red cards and fouls, and the fisticuffs and brawls between drunken fans in crowded stadiums.

If there’s one thing worse than losing a match, it’s an injury sustained on the field. At the moment it happens, more than the immediate pain, it’s the fear of never being able to play again that’s in the mind of every sportsperson worth their salt. Some injuries are temporary – they disappear with adequate rest, medication, and physiotherapy. But there are others that, even if treated, ensure that you never play again. And even if you do, you’re never really at the top of your game like you were before.

Anyone passionate about sports is in the same boat, even if they’re not professional players. Doctors and sports clinics will tell you for a fact that the first question you hear after an injury is – When will I be able to play again? No one ever asks the dreaded question – Will I ever be able to play again? It’s always a question of when, as if the possibility of never being able to play just doesn’t exist at all.

Not many athletes and sportspersons are able to bounce back to the same level of performance after an injury, especially one that’s pretty serious. But there are players who are too valuable to be sidelined just because they’re injured. And so the controversies rise when they’re allowed to play on in spite of being injured. Of course, temporary medical relief and painkillers are administered, but then, both the management and the players know that they’re risking serious damage in the long term for a gain in the short term.

But it’s a difficult choice for players to make – they know that injuries can effectively cut short promising careers. And so they’re willing to take the risk, they’re willing to pump themselves full of drugs and play one more match, especially if it’s a world series or any other major event. And when you ask them if they don’t fear a lifelong disability because of this risk, the answer comes as a surprise only if you’re not an ardent sports fan – it’s worse sitting out now than facing a chronic disability at some time in the future. Yes, sports is all about passion, even when it’s at the cost of common sense.

This post was contributed by Kelly Kilpatrick, who writes on the subject of top sport management colleges. She invites your feedback at kellykilpatrick24 at gmail dot com

Thanksgiving Day College Basketball Thoughts

As everyone prepares to feast on turkey (myself included!), some thoughts on the college basketball season that has been so far:

Some observations of the college basketball season so far as we hit Thanksgiving:

- After watching UNC take out Notre Dame in the championship of the Maui Invitational... hard to see UNC getting too much competition this year in the ACC. That offense is simply dynamite. We obviously know all about Hansbrough... but when Ty Lawson is on his game (as he was against ND, with 22 points and 10 assists), they're almost impossible to slow down. He might be the quickest guy down the court in America.

- Also, props to Kyle McAlarney... 39 points, including 10 threes against the Tar Heels. It takes him roughly 0.2 seconds to get into shooting position. What a quick release, and with all types of range too.

- Blake Griffin was already looking like a good candidate for the top spot in next year's draft... and that was before he went out and is averaging 27 and 19 through 5 games.

- The Big East will be as strong as ever... Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Notre Dame all in the top 10. Plus, Syracuse looks like it'll finally have a say come tournament time. Marquette has a lot of talent. Villanova and Georgetown are both ranked. West Virginia returns a lot. Should be a lot of fun.

- Watch out for Baylor... LaceDarius Dunn is explosive.

- Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's in the WCC might be the most exciting 1-2 race in any conference in America. The Zags are very balanced and talented. They've got about 6 or 7 guys that could legitimately start basically anywhere in America. But St. Mary's has the best player in the conference in Patrick Mills... after a good performance in the Olympics over the summer, he should continue to improve and be a force as a sophomore. And guys like Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson provide balance down low. It'll be a fun conference race to watch... circle January 29th and February 12th on your calendar.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!