My American League All-Star Picks

With the midseason break approaching, time to give my picks for the American League All-Star team starters.

Catcher
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer is the real easy choice here. He currently sits 2nd in the AL in batting average, he's showed his usual great plate patience (.410 OBP is also second in the AL), and he's been a solid doubles hitter. We're still waiting for the homerun power to come on a semi-consistent basis, but he's still indisputably the best catcher in the AL.
Other Options: Dioner Navarro (TB)
Actual Pick: Joe Mauer

First Base
Kevin Youkilis (BOS) - I feel much less sure on this one... Jason Giambi has been a better hitter, but he has a lot less ABs and less value in the field. Youkilis has been a little better hitter than Justin Morneau, but Morneau has almost 40 more PAs. In the end, Youkilis is my choice... he's been his typical self getting on base at a .375 clip, and he's hitting for good power this year, with 13 HR and 22 2B. Plus, as always, he plays solid defense at 1B.
Other Options: Justin Morneau (MIN), Jason Giambi (NYY)
Actual Pick: Kevin Youkilis

Second Base
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Again, a pretty easy choice here. Of all regular 2B in the AL, Kinsler has the highest average, gets on base the most, and has hit for (easily) the most power. He's even stolen 23 bases while only getting thrown out once. Brian Roberts has been very good as well, but Kinsler is hitting for a lot more power and stealing bases more effectively.
Other Options: Brian Roberts (BAL)
Actual Pick: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Third Base
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) - No surprise that A-Rod is once again the best 3B in the AL. The man in a machine, and continues to be one of (if not the) top all-around players in the MLB. He's in the top 6 in lots of major offensive categories, including #2 in OPS.
Other Options: Mike Lowell (BOS), Evan Longoria (TB)
Actual Pick: Alex Rodriguez

Shortstop
Michael Young (TEX) - Honestly, not a lot of inspiring choices for AL SS. I think Young has probably been the best of a pretty mediocre bunch of AL SS's this year.
Other Options: Derek Jeter (NYY), Jhonny Peralta (CLE)
Actual Pick: Derek Jeter (NYY)

Outfield
Grady Sizemore (CLE) - Sizemore continues to be one of the best all-around players in the MLB, despite playing for an underachieving Indians team. Sizemore's average is down a bit this year, but he is still working the count to get on base, and is leading the AL in HR as of this writing. He combines that with good defense in CF, and 20 SB (only caught 3 times). Sizemore does it all on the baseball field.

Josh Hamilton (TEX) - Hamilton is one of the best stories in the MLB, and he's made it even better by becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in the AL. He's hitting for average (top 10 in AL) and power (2nd in HR, top 5 in SLG), and is far and away leading the AL in RBI with 85 as of this writing. His numbers are skewed a bit because of the ballpark he plays in (his home/road splits are pretty ugly), but he's still my choice.

JD Drew (BOS) - Drew is playing like he finally deserves that big contract, as he's been one of the best hitters in the AL so far this year. His OPS easily is tops among AL OFs with enough ABs to qualify. He's 3rd in the League in SLG, and he's getting on base at an excellent clip, also 3rd in the American League.

Other Options: Carlos Quentin (CHI), Jermaine Dye (CHI), Nick Markakis (BAL)
Actual Picks: Josh Hamilton, Manny Ramirez (BOS), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

Designated Hitter
Milton Bradley (TEX) - No contest here whatsoever. Bradley has likely been the best hitter in the American League so far this season, and is definitely far and away above the other DH candidates. If you were going to bet on baseball, what were the odds you could have gotten if you would have picked Milton Bradley to be leading the AL in OPS at the midway point?
Actual Pick: David Ortiz (BOS)

What would your picks be?

Happy 4th of July!

Yay for America!

Hope you have a relaxing and enjoyable holiday!

NBA Draft Reactions

A hodgpodge of thoughts following one of the best sports night of the year - NBA Draft night.

Best value picks:
- Jerryd Bayless (11) - Had top 5 talent, but slides to 11, and will join an already talented cast of Portland Trailblazers. He can eventually be paired with Brandon Roy in the backcourt... neither guy is probably a natural PG, but both are good enough ballhandlers and passers to run the offense.

- Courtney Lee (22) - I like Lee quite a bit. He's an unselfish player who should in seamlessly with Orlando's Big 3. Playing the 2 spot, he's a lot more athletic than holdover Keith Bogans, and he still maintains 3-point range. He's also better than Bogans creating his own shot off the dribble. Just a really nice pick for a really solid player.

- Kosta Koufos (23) - He's not NBA ready yet, but at 23, he's a talented player to get. Also, he's white, so he should fit well in Utah.

- Mario Chalmers (34) - Chalmers was too good of a player to slip this far. Solid defensively, good outside shooter, unselfish with the basketball... perfect addition to a team with Wade-Marion-Beasley.

- DeAndre Jordan (35) - Not that I love Jordan's game (I actually have serious doubts as to whether he'll ever be a consistently productive player), but at 35, it's a good risk to take for the Clippers. He's got the athleticism and rebounding ability to be a very good player if he can develop some type of offensive game.


Worst value picks:
- DJ Augustin (9) - I was a little confused about this pick for the Bobcats. For one, I'm not huge on Augustin... he's small, doesn't have the quickness of a top-flight PG, and is a bit of a liability on the defensive end. But is he really going to be better than Raymond Felton? And doesn't Brook Lopez fit a big need there?

- Anthony Randolph (14) - Randolph is similar to Brandan Wright, who the Warriors got in the draft last year. What are they going to do with 2 raw, athletic PFs?

- Javale McGee (18) - Speaking of raw... he's a long ways away, and I think a guy like DeAndre Jordan might be a little better risk if you're going for the upside pick. But there were more proven 4 men like Kosta Koufos and Darrell Arthur on the board, both of which seem like they would have made more sense.

- Sonny Weems (39) - It's hard to have too many qualms about a mid 2nd round pick (same goes for Ewing next), but I was a little perplexed by this choice. Weems is freaky athletic, but with the addition of Rose to a backcourt already featuring Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, and Thabo Sefalosha, I think a big man would have been a better choice. Or if they were going to go this position, Chris Douglas-Roberts was still on the board.

- Patrick Ewing (43) - Ewing is big and pretty athletic, but he doesn't really have any discernible NBA skill. Ewing was a decent 6th man as a senior in college... how does that translate to the #43 pick?

MLB Power Rankings

Here is how I see the top 10 in the MLB as of June 17th... feel free to disagree, as this is what I believe is referred to as an inexact science.

1. Chicago Cubs - No real question about this in my mind. The Cubs are 2nd in the Majors in runs and 4th in the Majors in ERA. This means that their pythegorean record is even better than their Major League best 45-25 mark, which means this hot start is probably not a fluke. We'll see if they keep this pace up even with Soriano on the shelf, but so far they appear to be very legit.

2. Boston Red Sox - The Sox have a blistering 28-7 record at home, but they're only 16-22 on the road. They're also dealing with an injury to an offensive star, as David Ortiz continues to mend. But JD Drew has actually looked like an $11 million/year player of late, meaning the offense has barely missed a beat.

3. Philadelphia Phillies - Led by strong MVP candidate Chase Utley (and don't look now, but Pat Burrell has been awesome this year), the Phillies look like the 2nd best team in the NL right now. Cole Hamels is keeping the rotation together, and the pen is led by Brad Lidge, who has decided to be a great (great) closer again. The Phils actually have the 2nd best pythagorean record in the MLB.

4. Chicago White Sox - Guys like Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez might lead you to think that hitting has been the main reason for the Sox becoming relevant once again, but pitching has actually been the reason. Their 3.33 ERA is tops in the Majors, and they have been solid from 1-5 in the rotation, most surprisingly with John Danks and Gavin Floyd.

5. Oakland Athletics - The A's were supposed to be rebuilding, but they're 38-31, and the run differential suggests they should be even better than that. They're not ripping it up at the plate, but their 3.34 is just barely behind the White Sox for best in the MLB. If Rich Harden stays healthy (a huge if), the A's have one of the most formidable rotations in the MLB.

6. LA Angels - The Angels lead the AL West, but part of that reason is a little bit of abnormal success in close games, as shown through K-Rod's MLB leading 28 saves. They're in the bottom 3rd of the MLB in runs, however, and they'll need Vladimir Guerrero to start picking it up if they're going to continue at this pace.

7. St. Louis Cardinals - Even with Pujols injured, they're sticking in there with guys like Ryan Ludwick, who's improbably been one of the best hitters in the NL this season. Unfortunately, things haven't gotten easier, with Adam Wainwright on the DL and Todd Wellemeyer undergoing problems recently. Dave Duncan needs to keep pulling rabbits out of his hat.

8. Tampa Bay Rays - One of the feel good stories of the season, the Rays are 11 games above the .500 mark and having the best season so far of their existence. While BJ Upton and Carl Crawford are some of the first guys that come to mind, this has been the result of pitching from Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and James Shields. Kazmir missed the start of the year because of injury, but he might still be a Cy Young candidate - in 8 starts he has 6 wins, a 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 9.41 K/9.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks - The DBacks aren't doing anything special, but they have a large lead over the rest of the West, which has been really bad. Some might consider Justin Upton a disappointment a little for his low BA, but his peripheral numbers look pretty excellent for a 20 year old. He's going to be studly.

10. New York Yankees - The Yankees are just hanging around, like they usually do. The pitching was already mediocre, and that won't be helped by the injury of Wang. The Yankees do have to be pleased with the resurgence of Jason Giambi, who is a power threat once again.

What changes would you make?

Home Run Derby Promotion

State Farm and Major League Baseball have partnered to launch the Call Your Shot consumer promotion taking place the State Farm Home Run Derby. Here's how the promotion works: Fans can enter the promotion daily through June 24 at www.sfCallYourShot.com/2008. The grand prize winner of Call Your Shot will win:

- All-expense paid trip for four to the All-Star Game and State Farm Home Run Derby
- First class hotel accommodations in New York
- Tickets to a Broadway show
- $1,000 MasterCard gift card

The grand prize winner will also get the chance to pick a spot where two of the Home Run Derby players must compete to try to hit a ball to. If the first player hits the ball to the called spot, the promotion ends. If either player succeeds, the fan receives a 2008 Chevrolet Tahoe hybrid vehicle and a 2009 season-ticket package for any team.

Additionally, 10 fans will win first place prizes consisting of a $300 MLB.com gift card and 25 second prize winners will receive $100 MLB.com gift cards.

Celtics Survive Game 2

Wow. First off, obviously I did not see the Celtics being up 2-0 coming. If I had bet on the NBA Finals, I would be in bad shape right now. Fortunately, I stick to just talking about the games. And after being a bit of a bore for most of the game, the Lakers made things interesting before succumbing the Boston. I was actually going to stop watching without about 8 minutes to go, but with the effort that the Lakers were still exerting (even down 24) I decided to stick around, and almost witnesses something awesome. Obviously I had no inkling that LA would eventually make it a 2 point game, but it goes to their credit that they continued to exert maximum effort. But the result of all of it is that Boston leads 2-0.

How have they done it? Well, obviously defense has been huge. Up until the 4th quarter of Game 2, they had frustrated Kobe Bryant just like they did in the regular season, and nobody else was really picking up the slack. But then again, we knew going on that the Celtics were the best defensive team in the NBA, and their help defense was great. The big reason that Boston is up 2-0 and in control of the series is because they have been so good offensively, which is what I did not expect.

Boston shot 53% in Game 2 and got to the foul line 38 times. Those are winning numbers. For as bad as they looked against Cleveland offensively, they have turned things around quite nicely. They are getting out and picking up the tempo (which we thought the Lakers would be doing), and Rondo is running the break like a seasoned pro. Rondo considers to be extraordinarily effective considering he does not have a jumpshot. 16 assists, 6 rebounds, and constant solid defense? That's more than enough to make up for only 4 points on 1-4 shooting.

The other big thing for the Celtics was the play of the bigs of the bench. Once again, PJ Brown was just solid. He knows his role and his game so well... hit open midrange jumpers, and always be in the right place defensively. He's been monumental for Boston. The reason Boston is so great defensively is because of their help defense, and Brown is the epitome of that. He's always in the right position to help on guys driving to the hoop, or to take charges. Then, of course, there is Leon Powe. His aggressiveness on the offensive end was big in the first half, when the Lakers jumped out to a quick start. Just taking a look at his numbers - 21 points in 15 minutes. Leon Powe might never play a better game in his life.

For the Lakers, they have to figure out how to slow Boston down, and to decrease the disparity in free throw attempts. As noted, Boston took 38 compared to LA's 10. It doesn't take a basketball mastermind to know that you're not going to win a lot of games with a 28 free throw attempt difference. The easy answer is to say that LA needs to be more aggressive and take it to the hoop more, but Boston's defense makes that a tough proposition.

Obviously I have to stick with my prediction of LA to win the series, but it goes without saying that Game 3 is a must-win for the Lakers. At home, with the momentum of a near comeback, they need to get out to a good start in game 3 and exert control over things in LA.

Just a final note, and I know that the refs not calling traveling is a bit of a running joke in the NBA, but come on, how do you not call that travel by Vladimir Radmanovic on the fast break dunk that cut the lead to 104-100? I actually really don't have a problem with them letting borderline travels go, but Vlad Rad's travel there was rather egregious, and on a fast break to boot. It definitely helped the entertainment factor that nothing was called, but he blatantly travelled on a fast break. Got to be called.

Final final note, but Jeff Van Gundy making fun of Mark Jackson for comparing Leon Powe to Dr. J was the highlight of the game for me in terms of the announcers. I had a good laugh. Bravo Jeff Van Gundy.

2008 NBA Finals Prediction

Time to give my prediction for the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers!

While both teams are pretty evenly matched, I like Los Angeles to win this series based on the matchup advantages they have. First, Boston has nobody really to match up with Kobe Bryant. Paul Pierce has done a very good job defensively this postseason, but he is simply not the player that Kobe Bryant is. Look for Bryant to exert himself, especially late and in close games, which is a huge edge in their favor. In so many of these closely-matched series', the team that has the best player wins, and Kobe Bryant is the best player in this series.

Up front, I think LA has the edge with their athleticism. While Kevin Garnett can match up well with either Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol, I think it will be much tougher for Kendrick Perkins to match up with them. They are both athletic big men that can get up and down the court. Plus, they are both skilled with the basketball, and I'm not sure how effective of a defender Perkins is 15 feet from the basket. I look for LA to exploit that.

Lastly, the Lakers have a huge coaching edge. Phil Jackson is one of the best coaches of all-time, looking for his NBA record 10th Title. Doc Rivers was on the chopping block as recently as the end of last season, as many Celtics fans openly pined for his firing. Look for Jackson to exploit the Lakers advantages. So I think the Lakers will be victorious in this game. I like the teams to split the first 2 in Boston, and the Lakers to take the next 3 at home.

Lakers in 5.

What's your pick?

2008 NBA Mock Draft

Here is my first edition of a mock draft for 2008!

1. Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose (Memphis)
Beasley seems to be a better fit, as the Bulls need a low-post scorer, but I simply think Derrick Rose is the better player. He's unstoppable in the open court, and if he ever develops a consistent jumpshot, he looks like a stronger version of Chris Paul (without quite the passing ability). Plus, John Paxson always emphasizes defense, and Derrick Rose has a much higher ceiling as a defender than Michael Beasley.

2. Miami Heat - Michael Beasley (Kansas St.)
Rose is the guy they really want, but Beasley sure is a nice consolation. He's NBA ready both on the offensive end and rebounding the basketball, and should be able to step into a lineup right away. Beasley will have his struggles on the offensive end, but a trio of Wade-Marion-Beasley would be a real good start in Miami.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves - Brook Lopez (Stanford)
With Lopez, the Timberwolves would be setting themselves up to have one of the best offensive frontlines in the NBA. They already have improving Al Jefferson, and Brook Lopez has great touch around the basket. Lopez does not have great athleticism, but he's big and is refined in his post moves around the basket. That could warrant a top 3 pick.

4. Seattle Supersonics - Jerryd Bayless (Arizona)
Seattle already had a nice core from last year's draft, and Bayless would be another great piece. He's a PG in the mold of a guy like Gilbert Arenas, in that he is really quick off the dribble and is a deadeye shooter. He is 19 and Kevin Durant is 20, so that would be a potent 1-2 combo for years.

5. Memphis Grizzlies - OJ Mayo (USC)
The Grizzlies could go with a big man here, but I like them to go with an off guard in OJ Mayo to create an immensely talented young backcourt, teaming him up with Mike Conley (and then ideally dealing Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowry). Mayo has great range on his shot (which makes him a good complement to Conley), but can also score off the dribble, and showed surprising leadership ability in his one year with USC.

6. New York Knicks - Danilo Gallinari (Italy)
According to reports, Gallinari is a 6'10'' forward with PG skills. He can handle the ball, create his own shot (either off the drive or with his back to the basket), hit from 3-point range, and he's a good passer. Sounds like a perfect fit for D'Antoni's system.

7. Los Angeles Clippers - Russell Westbrook (UCLA)
With the PG position unsettled in LA, Westbrook is a nice fit to stay in town and join the Clippers. While he hasn't played full-time at PG very much, he showed he has the skills to do it last year. He's solid handling the ball, he's a very good passer, and he has the athleticism required. He's very tough defensively both on the ball and in the passing lanes. He needs to develop a more consistent jump shot, but that was coming along as the year went. With his athleticism, he is great on the fast break.

8. Milwaukee Bucks - Eric Gordon (Indiana)
Gordon is a great scoring combo guard. With Gordon, the Bucks could look to unload Michael Redd and his large contract. Gordon can score in a variety of ways, as he showed by leading the Big 10 in scoring as a freshman.

9. Charlotte Bobcats - Anthony Randolph (LSU)
Looking for more athleticism, the Bobcats can look to young, but very talented and athletic Randolph. He's in the mold of a Brandan Wright from last year in that he needs to bulk up and improve his midrange game, but he appears to have the talent to do that. He averaged over 15 and 8 in his rookie campaign, and with over 2 blocks per game, showed that his athleticism can allow him to do some things defensively.

10. New Jersey Nets - Kevin Love (UCLA)
With athleticism all around, the Nets can take Love, who provides an NBA ready, polished game. He'll never be a star because of his athletic limitations, but he's an extremely intelligent player, great passer, rebounder, and showed a nice jumpshot last season.

11. Indiana Pacers - DJ Augustin (Texas)
The Pacers are really pretty bad at PG, so Augustin is the natural pick here. He's not the most athletic PG in the draft, but he's quick enough. He is crafty enough to get his own shot, he's a very good shooter, and he can get them into their offense and get playmakers the ball (as he showed when he played Kevin Durant). This seems like a logical pick for Indiana if Augustin is still on the board.

12. Sacramento Kings - DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M)
Jordan is extremely raw, but his athletic ability is too much to pass up. He has a long way to go, as he showed by not having a huge impact in his year at College Station (8 PPG, 6 RPG), but with his great ability, he projects to be a solid scorer, excellent rebounder and shot blocker.

13. Portland Trailblazers - Joe Alexander (West Virginia)
With the Blazers looking to make a run at the playoffs next season, Alexander is a guy that could come in and give them quality minutes right away. He's not very good defensively, but he has an advanced offensive game and can score in a variety of ways. He's sneakily athletic, has a great jump shot with lots of range, and showed he can carry a team for stretches.

14. Golden State Warriors - Donte Greene (Syracuse)
Greene looks like a great fit for Nellie ball. He's a 3/4 combo guy that can stretch the floor with his outside shot. He's great in the midrange, and shot nearly 35% from downtown in his one season for the Orange. He looks like he could develop into a very solid rebounder with his athleticism and leaping ability, as he averaged over 7 per game. He might not be ready to play a lot of minutes right away, but he should be able to contribute some with his varied skills.

What are your thoughts? What would you change around?

NBA Conference Finals Predictions

We're down to the final four teams in the NBA playoffs, and we have some relatively power matchups. Let's cut out the pretext and just get to the predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

With Boston and Detroit, we have to the two teams that have been a cut above the rest of the conference all season long. Detroit, of course, are veterans at this Conference Finals thing, having been here for the last 5 seasons. Boston is coming off of a season in which they won 24 games and replaced 60% of their starters, so they're not quite so experienced with the Conference Finals. But no matter, as Boston is the favorite heading into the series.

But there has been a big development for Boston which makes them appear a lot more vulnerable than they looked in the regular season... Ray Allen got really old, really fast. He was a virtual non-factor against Cleveland, even sitting out for the majority of the 4th quarter of Game 7. He wasn't hitting shots, he wasn't getting open looks consistently, and he could not create his own shot. Without him, does Boston have the offense to get past Detroit? Especially with defensive stalwart Tayshaun Prince guarding Paul Pierce?

I do think the importance of Rajon Rondo will be magnified in this series. Against Cleveland, his defensive skills were not as important, because the Cavs obviously do not have a great offensive PG. However, Rondo will be asked to slow down Chauncey Billups, and his success or failure will be a large determinant of this series. As it stands, I'll go with the more talented Billups, and ergo, the Pistons. The Boston that I watched struggle to handle Cleveland does not have the offensive firepower to hang with Detroit.

PISTONS IN 6


WESTERN CONFERENCE

We have two legitimately great teams in this series, with the Lakers taking on the Spurs. The Lakers have been the most impressive team in the postseason so far, dispatching the Nuggets in 4 and the Jazz in 6. Meanwhile, the Spurs impressively beat Phoenix in 5 games before outlasting the Hornets in 7.

Both teams are extremely well-coached, fundamentally sound, and talented. That's usually means we should have a pretty nice series on our hands. I would guess that Bruce Bowen will start on Kobe Bryant, which will be the key matchup in the series. Though the Lakers certainly have other options on the floor, they still look to Kobe to get the offense going, both with his scoring and drawing of defenders.

When the Spurs have the ball, the key matchup will be how Derek Fisher guards Tony Parker. The Spurs obviously have Duncan and Ginobili, but the key to the offense is Tony Parker hitting his 18-footers. When Parker is hitting the jumpshot (predominately off of the pick & roll and kickouts from Duncan), the Spurs become very, very difficult to stop.

This should be a classic series between two great teams. In this case, I'll go with the proven commodity... seems like the Spurs are on a mission.

SPURS IN 7

What are your thoughts?

"With no regard for human life!"

Thank you Kevin Harlan. I love that PBP call.

Anyway, Cavs tied the series up 2-2. My first question... the Celtics won 66 games this year? Really? For the second straight game, Boston just looked absolutely abominable offensively, with no flow, and nobody stepping up and making shots. They shot just 38.6% for the game, and only 3/14 from downtown.

None of the big 3 look like they're able to take over a game offensively... KG is far too passive, Paul Pierce has struggled, and Ray Allen continues to be almost a non-factor in this series (other than 1 quarter in this game). The difference between those guys and LeBron is that even when LeBron isn't shooting well, he is still such an incredible passer that he gets tons of open looks for other guys. Boston's three stars don't do that. So while James was again awful shooting the ball, his 13 assists were enough to propel Cleveland into a series-tying victory.

This series should also have put to rest any doubt in the Kevin Garnett vs. Tim Duncan debate. Both great players, but Duncan is a different player in the playoffs and in the 4th quarter. I know the supporting casts over their careers have been vastly different, but change them up and I don't think Garnett would have 4 rings.

As we have seen in the playoffs, home court has been huge, and as Charles Barkley has been saying, things go from game to game... so it will be interesting to see if Boston can get some offensive flow again back in Boston.