NBA Preseason MVP Candidates

LeBron James captured his first NBA MVP title in the 2008-2009 title, cementing his status as the best basketball player in the world right now. He has to be high up on a list of candidates heading into the 2009-10 season as well. His Cavaliers are expected to be one of the top contenders for the title this season, and being on a successful team is key to winning the award. James is the most athletically gifted player ever in the NBA. He can finish better than anyone else, as well as being an excellent rebounder, passer, and defender. With each passing season, it seems like another weakness in his game has been shored up, so it will be interesting to see how he can improve on last season.

Kobe Bryant is another annual contender for the award, as he will be playing on the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, a team that is the favroties to repeat. Bryant has lost some of the explosiveness of his younger days, but he makes up for it with craftiness and smarts. He has a great jumper, and is very creative about getting it off in many different situations. He has started to share the ball more and more, highlighting his skills as a passer. The numbers, star power, and wins will be there, which is why you can't count otu Kobe Bryant for the MVP award.

Dwyane Wade was magnificent last season, leading an otherwise bad Miami Heat team to the NBA playoffs. He puts his body on the line every night, and no guy is better at getting to the hole and drawing contact. He is a great teammate, getting others involved (over 7 assists per game last season) and playing staunch defense. If his body can withstand the pounding that he takes, he will be high up on the list of MVP candidates.

Dwight Howard continues to grow every year, and his Magic team will again be one of the strongest contenders in the East. Howard is the best rebounder and shot blocker in the NBA, and his offensive game seems to get a little bit better every season. Howard is an athletic freak down low, with size, speed, and strength that you normally don't ever see for men his size. With a lot of help from teammates, Howard should put up huge numbers once again, and will likely lead the league in rebounds.

These are just four of the contenders for MVP. Though it is possible that someone like Chris Paul or Kevin Durant will sneak into the race and garner some votes, it seems likely to me that as we embark on the 2009-10 season, the MVP will be one of these four guys.

Who would you trade the #1 pick for?

Saw an interesting idea on FanIQ (via Blazer's Edge), so I thought I'd give my take on it... the question is, if you were the Portland Trailblazers, who would you trade the #1 pick for?

Critical Fanatic had only 2 players that he'd trade the right to draft Oden for... LeBron James and Dwight Howard.

The first one, I'd agree with. I think LeBron James is a no-brainer. He's already the best player in the NBA at age 22, and he's the most physically gifted player in the history of the NBA. No matter the potential of Oden, LeBron James is a guy I would trade him for.

The other choice of Dwight Howard, I would disagree with. Obviously, Howard is an utterly fantastic player. But I do have some concerns about him turning into one of the top 3 players in the NBA. Steve Kerr wrote an article on Yahoo! earlier this season, basically wondering whether Dwight Howard would really develop into a good back-to-the-basket player. I have some of those same concerns. I mean, he still scored 17 PPG and shot 60% from the field, but is he ever going to be a dominant offensive force? I'm not sure.

There is only one other guy I would trade the pick for, and that is Dwyane Wade. He is 25, but I thought he was the best player in the NBA this year when he was healthy, and we saw what he could do when he led the Heat to the NBA title in 2006. He is a great scorer, but he still remains unselfish and plays hard every night. I think he and LeBron will be the two best players in the NBA next season.

Other possibilities were intriguing, but not enough. Tim Duncan is the best PF ever (in my book), but he's on the wrong side of 30 to be trading Greg Oden for. Ditto for Kevin Garnett, who has started to decline (albeit slightly). Kobe Bryant is getting older as well. Beyond that, there's really no one I would consider.

So who would make you give up the #1 pick?

NBA Playoff Predictions

With the long, grinding season over, we've finally reached the NBA playoffs. To be honest, I found this NBA regular season to be pretty dull for the most part, but we've got a lot of great playoff matchups. Here's my picks:

EAST

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Orlando Magic
The Magic just aren't playing very good basketball right now. They've got some good parts, but I think Detroit is just too talented and too experienced. Magic might steal 1, but Detroit is number 1 seed for a reason. PISTONS IN 5.

(4) Miami Heat vs. (5) Chicago Bulls
I think Dwyane Wade is great, but I don't really like this matchup for Miami. The Bulls basically gave Miami everything they wanted last year in the first round, and now the Bulls are better and the Heat are worse than they were. If Wade was at full strength, maybe. But as it is, I think the Bulls will be too strong, especially defensively, against the Heat. BULLS IN 6.

(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (6) New Jersey Nets
Everyone seems to be picking the Nets here, but I'm not so sure. I think the Raptors are the better defensive team, and they're a little more balanced. Plus, the Nets bench it just so bad. Either way, it will definitely be a tight series, and if I were a Raptors fan, I would boo Vince Carter mercilessly. RAPTORS IN 7.

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (7) Washington Wizards
I feel robbed. Instead of LeBron vs. Wade in round 1, we get this. I can just about guarantee it won't be as exciting as the series last year between these 2 teams. CAVS IN 4.


WEST

(1) Dallas Mavericks vs. (8) Golden State Warriors
Interesting matchup here for obvious reasons... Golden State has performed very well against Dallas this year, and the Warriors coach is Don Nelson, who is pretty familiar with this Mavs team. Still, let's not get carried away. There's a reason the Mavs won 67 games. MAVS IN 5.

(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Utah Jazz
Jazz have a very solid starting lineup with the potential to cause problems for Houston. Deron Williams is going to be really tough to guard, and Mehmet Okur can pull Yao Ming away from the basket. But this is a really good Houston team... they have the two stars, tons of great role players, and they just do what it takes to win. As I've said many times, the Rockets actually remind me a lot of the Heat last year as a team. ROCKETS IN 6.

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
Obviously the Nuggets star power is enough to cause anyone problems, but this is San Antonio we're talking about. They're great defensively, and I think they should be able to slow down a good but slightly predictable Denver attack. I think Bowen will frustrate Carmelo some, and the duo of Parker/Ginobili will be able to stay with AI enough to not let him take over enough games to win the series. This should be very entertaining, but the Spurs are a little too good. SPURS IN 6.

(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
This was probably the best first round series last year, but I don't think we'll see a repeat of that. For one, Phoenix is better. They've got some guy named Amare Stoudemire that should be able to dominate down low. That's even bigger because the Lakers are not as good inside as they were last year. The series should still be entertaining because of the Kobe vs. the Suns aspect, but I don't think it will be as good as last year. SUNS IN 5.

Disagreements?

My 2007 NBA MVP Winner

Yesterday I looked at the "Other" Awards in the NBA, and today it's time for the MVP. The prevailing theory everywhere seems to be that this is a two-horse race between Dirk Nowitski and Steve Nash, but I'm not sure I subscribe to that theory.

We'll get to that later, but first another note. Two guys may very well have made this list (almost certainly would have) had they not gotten injured. One is Dwyane Wade. He was actually my MVP of the first half, and I still think he's been the best player when he's played, but the injury drops him from consideration. The second is Yao Ming, who was extremely good, but again gets knocked out because of injury.

Which leaves my top 7. Apologies to Gilbert Arenas, Tracy McGrady, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire, who just missed the cut.

(7) Carlos Boozer - Utah Jazz

Boozer finished 4th in the NBA in rebounding, and has just been an efficient and effective post player for the surprising Jazz. In scoring 21 points and grabbing 11.8 rebounds per game, the raw numbers are there. But he's also shooting nearly 56% from the field, getting to the line over 5 times a game, and getting 3 assists per contest. Boozer has been one of the big reasons for the rise of the Jazz this year.

(6) Kevin Garnett - Minnesota Timberwolves

As usual, KG quietly gets the job done. He's still the best rebounder in the NBA, and he compliments that with a versatile offensive game, great passing skills, and very good all-around defense. He is perhaps the most unselfish player in the League, giving 100% every night for a team that has basically been run into the ground by Kevin McHale. At age 30 he is still one of the premier players in the NBA and places #6 on my ballot.

(5) LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers

It is telling that LeBron finishes 5th here, and in many respects had a very disappointing season. There was all the talk early on about how it didn't really look like he was trying all that hard, and I'm not sure that was unwarranted. In any regard, he simply didn't progress this year the way we all thought and hoped he would. His shooting percentages are all done, including (most notably) his FT percentage, which seems to have forced him to shoot more jumpers. His rebounding and assists numbers are also slightly down, which isn't what everyone expected from the King. A strong playoff performance (like last year) will go a long way towards making everyone forget this regular season, but let's not get too carried away. He was pretty darn good.

(4) Steve Nash - Phoenix Suns

I suspect this is the placement that will make people unhappy, but that's ok. I actually do think Nash has been better this year than his 2 MVP years, I just think he didn't really deserve the MVP the last couple of seasons. He's a great player, and a great PG, I just think there are guys more valuable than him. The number of assists per game is gaudy, but also aided by the fact that his supporting cast is superb and the pace the Suns play at gives them a lot more possessions. Still, he is a great passer, great shooter (maybe the best in the NBA), and he handles the ball extremely well, especially with the offhand. Putting Nash at 4 isn't a slight to him, it's just recognizing that there are some really good players that are just a little better than him.

(3) Kobe Bryant - Los Angeles Lakers

His PPG average is down about 4 points, but Kobe has been better this year than he was last year. He is taking a lot less shots per game and as a result has been a more efficient scorer. He gets to the line about 10 times per game, which is good because he is a very good FT shooter. Another aspect of him toning down the shots some this year is that he got his teammates more involved, which upped his APG to 5.4. Even with him handling the ball so much, he still has a pretty low turnover rate, which just adds to his effectiveness.

(2) Tim Duncan - San Antonio Spurs

Obviously Duncan isn't flashy, but he's just a great player. He averaged 20 and 10 like he has done every year of his career except one (last year, when he was bothered by foot injuries), but his impact goes beyond that. He shot 55% this year, which is superb for someone shooting 14 shots per game like he does. He's also one of the best interior defenders in the NBA, as he once again anchored one of the best defenses in the League. He's not going to wow you, but with the efficient offensive game and great defensive work, he's #2 on my MVP ballot.

(1) Dirk Nowitzki - Dallas Mavericks

Dirk continued his rapid ascent to superstardom with his best year to date, a year that is good enough to win him NBA numbers. As of now he's a 50-40-90 guy... he shoots 50.1% from the field, 41.9% from downtown, and 90.3% from the FT line. And he's a 7-footer. And that's not all. He also averaged 9 RPG, and posted a career high in APG with 3.4. He's not the best defensive player around, but he's the best all-around player in the NBA, and one that is deserving of winning the MVP.

Playoff Race: Eastern Conference

As we get towards the end of the NBA season, it's time to take a look at the playoff picture and some of the potential storylines. Let's start with the East, because I'm too lazy to do both conferences right now.

A possibly great 4/5 matchup - As things sit right now, Miami would be the 4 seed (because they will win their division) and Cleveland will be the 5 seed. Meaning Lebron vs. Wade. We all saw what these guys did in the playoffs last year... playing against each other in a 7-game series would be really great to see. I'd rather see it in the conference finals, but I'll settle for it here.

The race for the 8 seed - Then again, does this really matter? Right now Orlando is the 8 seed at 36-42, but Indiana is 2 games back and Philly is 3 games back. Regardless of who finishes 8th, these teams are not good. In other words, I'm not all that optimistic that any of them can hang with Detroit.

The Wizards could be the worst playoff team ever - I mean, they're a solid club at full strength... but (no disrespect to Prada over at Bullets Forever), without Arenas and Butler they're really bad. Their bench was already thin, and now Donnell Taylor is their 6th man. I have a feeling it will be a short and ugly playoff appearance for the Wizards this year.

Competitive 2nd round matchups - If the seeds hold, we could get some really good matchups, and I think any of 5 teams are very capable of winning the conference. The first round doesn't look like it will be very exciting (except Heat/Cavs), but possible matchups involving Detroit vs Miami/Cleveland and Chicago vs. Toronto would be very competitive.

Anyway, as you can tell, I'm not really excited about the playoffs in the East this year other than seeing LeBron in the playoffs... the West, on the other hand, should be awesome. We'll do a recap of what things look like tomorrow.

This is why I thought Dwyane Wade was the MVP

With Dwyane Wade getting injured, possibly for the year, I think it will showcase why Dwyane Wade was my first-half MVP.

As of now, the Heat are 25-20 with Wade (and largely without Shaq), 1-8 without him. Wade created absolutely everything for Miami. He scored 28.8 PPG, dished out 7.9 APG, and drew the defense to him. Without him, they won't be able to score. Sure, they scored 100 against the Mavs on Thursday, but the Mavs had that game wrapped up by half.

Who will create shots for the Heat? Jason Williams? Shaq? It's going to get ugly, because this is a bad team without Wade.

Bet the house, if Wade misses the rest of the season, the Heat will not win more than 35 or 36 games this year, and they will miss the playoffs, even in the weak Eastern Conference. To win 36 games they'd have to finish 10-19, and I really don't think they'll even be able to do that. You heard it here first.

NBA Midseason Awards

Since we're about halfway through the NBA season, I thought it would only be appropriate to do some NBA Midseason Awards. So yeah.

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Roy (POR)
Roy has been the best of a really bad class of rookies so far. Roy hasn't been great, but he's been solid as a starting guard for the Blazers. He's averaging 15 PPG, 4 RPB, and 3.6 APG, showing off the overall skillset that made him such a nice prospect. He's shooting about 43.6%, which could stand to improve, but he also gets to the line with some consistency, and shoots 86% there, so that helps offset the shooting percentage.

Coach of the Year: Jerry Sloan (UTA)
There's a few other solid candidates, such as Eddie Jordan, Avery Johnson, and Phil Jackson, but I give my vote to Jerry Sloan. The Jazz are very improved this year and playing good ball, currently sitting at 32-17. This is certainly their best year in the post-Malone and Stockton era, and with their balance, they have a chance to make some noise later in the year.

Most Improved Player: Monta Ellis (GS)
Ellis was my choice even before he hit the eventual game-winner against Chicago Friday night, as he has been very good in just his 2nd year out of high school. He's averaging about 17 pts/3 rebs/4 asts a night, which is very solid production. He doesn't have a very good long-range shot at this point, but he gets into the lane very well and also shoots about 5 FTs per game. Really a good-looking young player.

Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Camby (DEN)
Camby's always been a very good player with one caveat... he can never stay healthy. Well, so far, he's managed to stay reasonably healthy (knock on wood) and his production is very solid. Right now he leads the NBA with over 3 BPG and is an imposing presence at the rim. He also grabs 12 rebounds a night, gets about a steal a game, and is a consistently great defensive player down low. When he's healthy.

6th Man of the Year: Leandro Barbosa (PHO)
I am just a huge fan of Barbosa and what he brings to the table. He's instant offense off the bench, a good all-around player, and just brings yet another gear to an already fast Phoenix Suns team. He's so versatile offensively. He shoots the 3-ball at about a 40% clip, which is real solid. But he also has a very good first step, and is great in transition. He's so fast that he can get ahead of the defense, and he's a great finisher at the hoop. Add it all up, and Barbosa is my 6th Man of the Mid-year and one of my favorite players to watch.

MVP: Dwyane Wade (MIA)
A lot of people seem to like Steve Nash or Gilbert Arenas for this award, but I'm not sure either guy would be in my top 5. Wade (obviously) would be there, and Dirk is my #2 (no matter what this Myspace says or what Mark Cuban says), but after that things are tight. I'd put Nash and Arenas in with Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and maybe LeBron. They're all too close right now.

But my MVP would be Dwyane Wade. I'm not sure people realize how bad this Heat team is without Shaq, which they were for most of the first half. I mean, the Heat had Gary Payton (who doesn't really do anything anymore) and Jason Kapono (who's a good shooter, and well, that's it) in the starting lineup. Antoine Walker plays 24 minutes per game, and his time has more than passed. Chris Quinn started a game for the Heat this year. Without Wade, they'd be competing with Boston and Memphis right now. But Wade has been awesome. 28 PPG, 8 APG, 5 RPG, 2 SPG, and maximum effort every single game (which we can't say about LeBron). Wade is single-handedly carrying the Heat, and he's been unbelievable in doing it. I don't see how you can deny him the MVP right now. He's been that good.

What would your awards look like?

NBA Rundown

With the NFL playoffs, college football bowls, and everything else, I haven't written about the NBA very much this year. Which is a shame. So to rectify that, let's take a brief look at how each division race is going so far this year:

Atlantic Division
For a short while when the Nets were 20-20 the division leader was at least .500, which was nice for a change. They lost now to drop to 20-21, but they hold the slim division lead. I thought the Celtics would be able to challenge for the division crown, but the injury of Paul Pierce ended that. They've gone 2-14 with him out the lineup, and believe it or not, that's not good enough to win the Atlantic. Elsewhere, Philly is awful and the Knicks are the Knicks, so it's looks like this race is between the Nets and Raptors... don't sound so excited.

Central Division
Hey, a division in the East with more than 2 teams over .500! Washington is obviously playing well, but I think there's an extremely good chance that the 3 best teams in the East reside in the Central division. The Pistons are up top and they are the best offensive team in the division, the Cavs are in 2nd, and they have this guy named LeBron James on their team, which helps (though the key is the supporting cast). The Bulls are in 3rd, but they have the best defense in the division. Put it all together, any of them can win the division and I would bet that the Eastern Conference winner will be among these three teams. Unless DWade pulls off a miracle like last year, I don't see what other team will beat them in the playoffs.

Southeast Division
The Wizards are playing well, but they have the same problems they've had in the past. They're not getting any inside scoring and they can't play any defense whatsoever. That's generally a bad combination in the playoffs. The other competitors are Miami and Orlando... Orlando started strong but has cooled off, and Miami is being carried by Dwyane Wade. Seriously, without Shaq and Wade this would be the WORST team in the NBA... so it's vital that Shaq can come back and give them something. Anything.

Northwest Division
Utah has the 5 game division lead over Denver right now, but with AI and Carmelo playing together, I think the Nuggets could have a few tricks up their sleeve, especially if Camby can stay healthy for once. After 2 games together things seem to be going just fine with those two, though the defense could stand to be a little better.The TWolves are in 3rd place and .500 right now, but they just fired their coach. I thought that was a pretty awful move, but I'll just quote John Hollinger, because he explained my thoughts pretty clearly today:

Can anyone remember the last time a coach took a team that was expected to be lottery-bound, had them at .500 and in line for a playoff spot at the halfway point of the season in a very tough conference, and got fired anyway?

...From the lofty contract extensions they've handed out to even their most mediocre players, to the way they've axed both Flip Saunders (in February 2005) and now Casey rather than admitting the serial imperfections of the roster, to their current refusal to trade Garnett before his value declines, Minnesota's front office has existed in an alternate state of reality for some time now.

Pacific Division
This is the Suns division and no one has any real chance of winning it besides them. The Suns are 33-8, scoring 112 PPG, playing really solid defense, and [ohbytheway] have won 14 straight games. I try not to get into too much hyperbole, but they have a chance to be one of the best teams ever. Their talent is that good, their coaching is that good, and they play that well together. They started the year 1-5 and have gone 32-3 since. They have 30 of their last 32 games. They own this division and there's no need to discuss anyone else.

Southwest Division
Once again the best division in the NBA and it features [in my opinion] 3 of the 5 best teams in the Conference. Dallas might even be better than Phoenix, the Spurs are still an excellent team, and Houston with a healthy McGrady and Yao can beat anyone in the NBA in a short series. All 3 teams are real good, and along with the Suns, Lakers, and Jazz are the reason that I am really, really looking forward to this year's playoffs.

So who's the best team in the NBA? Mavs or Suns?

2006 NBA Preview: Awards and Playoff Predictions

Hopefully you won't all hold it against me that the full preview is out a day after the start of the regular season! But that's a chance I had to take because things were busy. By the way, other good season previews are here or here over at WBRS if you're interested. In case you missed the division previews, here they are:

Atlantic Division
Central Division
Southeast Division
Northwest Division
Southwest Division
Pacific Division

So let's move on from there, to the Conference predictions. If I recall from what Pradamaster told me, the division winner is only guaranteed a top 4 seed, unlike the top 3 seed from last year, which is a big and welcome change. So without further ado, here's my top 8 in each conference.

EAST
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Detroit Pistons
3. Miami Heat
4. Boston Celtics
5. Chicago Bulls
6. Washington Wizards
7. New Jersey Nets
8. Orlando Magic
Next in Line: Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers

WEST
1. Dallas Mavericks
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Houston Rockets
6. LA Lakers
7. LA Clippers
8. Utah Jazz
Next in Line: NO/OK Hornets, Golden State Warriors

Before we get to the predictions, let's go through some awards, both real and fictional, because it's my blog and I can make up awards if I want to.

MVP
(5) Dwyane Wade - This isn't a slight to Dwyane Wade as much as its respect for everyone else above him. I think Wade could potentially wear down a bit as the regular season goes on, and that, combined with the overall greatness of the guys above him puts him at 5.
(4) Kobe Bryant - Much the same for Kobe as for Wade. If he won the MVP, it wouldn't be at all surprising. But he'll be out probably the first week with a knee injury, plus I think his game will be changed a lot from last year.
(3) Tim Duncan - He had a foot injury last year and was still unbelievable in leading the Spurs to the best regular-season record in the West. This year, all reports say that the foot is feeling great, and he should have a new focus after their early ousting in the postseason.
(2) Dirk Nowitski - He was great last year, and continues to improve and vary his game. He added an unstoppable post game from 15 feet last year, and just continues to improve his offensive game.
(1) LeBron James - I thought he was the best player in the NBA last year, and I think he will be again. We all know about his game... 30, 8, and 8 is not out of the question.

Rookie of the Year
(5 TIE) Jordan Farmar - I think that as the season goes on, he'll start to earn more and more playing time for Phil Jackson. Farmar's a tough PG who just knows the game well, and is a great leader on the court. I'm not big fans of Smush Parker (more on him later) or Sasha Vujacic, which is why I think minutes may be there for Farmar's taking.
(5 TIE) Rodney Carney - With the sad state of Philly, Carney should be starting before too long. He's solid defensively which is a rarity in Philly these days, and can knock down open shots. And Philly doesn't have a whole lot of other options.
(4) Tyrus Thomas - The most athletic player in the draft, I think he'll have an immediate impact defensively. He's a great shot-blocker off the weak side, and he'll get up and down the floor.
(3) Randy Foye - I think it'll take him a little while to adjust, but he's got great game. He can shoot from the outside, get to the basket, and play good defense. With defenses focusing their attention on KG Foye could thrive if he gets the minutes.
(2) Rudy Gay - Gay should get a decent amount of minutes, and with his enormous talent, that's all he needs to be effective. He can finish on the break, has a great pullup jumper, and should pull down rebounds. Passion & Pride likes him as their 6th Man of the Year... I'll settle for #2 on the Rookies list.
(1) Brandon Roy - I think he'll have the best opportunities of all the rookies to contribute, and he's one of the most NBA ready. Portland's got young talent, but they won't be contending, which is why Roy will get a lot of minutes at the 1 and 2 guard. He's got an NBA jumpshot, and he'll be able to get into the lane.

6th Man of the Year
Leandro Barbosa - I just love his game offensively. He can score off the dribble, get out on the break with his blinding speed, and hit the open shot from downtown. He excels in the 1/2 man off the bench in the role that the Suns use him, and he should average at least 10-15 points per game off the bench for the high-scoring Suns. I think that will be enough to edge out Andres Nocioni for the 6th Man of the Year Award.

Most Overrated Players
Peja Stojakovic - On a team with many very good players he thrives. This is what happened in Sacramento when they were winning all of those games... he can stay out of the way and just hit jump shots. Which is nice, but he's sure getting paid a lot to do it. He'll knock down open shots, but I'm skeptical about his ability to create for himself. Of course, with Chris Paul he may not have to.
Smush Parker - He's an average to slightly above average 3-point shooter. That's it. He doesn't create many shots for himself or others, he's not a great ballhandler, and he's not a great defender. He's solid as a guard off the bench, but as a starter, I think he's very overrated.
Ben Wallace - Before you bit my head off, I think he's a bigger offensive detriment than people realize. Last year in the playoffs it was a 4-on-5 offensively for Detroit every time they had the ball. He doesn't score, and he's terrible at the line. The defense is obviously great, and Chicago is certainly better off with him, but I really think the offensive ineptitude is understated.

Most Underrated Players
Gerald Wallace - He contributes in all areas of the game. He's a high percentage shooter and excellent rebounder at his position. But mostly he's excellent defensively. He steals (to the tune of 2.5 per game) and blocks shots (2.1 per game). And at only age 24, he should keep improving as long as the Bobcats don't try to push Adam Morrison ahead of him.
Andres Nocioni - He was my 2nd choice for 6th Man of the Year. He gets overshadowed a bit because Luol Deng plays his same position, but Nocioni is a weapon. He averaged 13 and 6 per game off the bench last year, and is a threat behind the arc. He'd be starting on a lot of teams.
Yao Ming - People obviously know about Yao, but I'm not sure that everyone realize how good he really is. He has become a veritable weapon down low for the Rockets, which makes them a real threat with a healthy T-Mac. After the All-Star break last year he averaged 25.7 PPG and over 11 RPG. He's certainly the top Center in the NBA and probably one of the top 10 players in the game right now.

Playoff Predictions
Cleveland over Orlando in 5
Detroit over New Jersey in 6
Miami over Washington in 6
Chicago over Boston in 4

Dallas over Utah in 5
San Antonio over LA Clippers in 6
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 7
Houston over Denver in 5

Cleveland over Chicago in 7
Miami over Detroit in 7

Dallas over Houston in 6
San Antonio over Phoenix in 7

Cleveland over Miami in 6
Dallas over San Antonio in 7

Dallas over Cleveland in 6



I was tempted to pick San Antonio or Phoenix in the West, but I just think Dallas it the most versatile team... more offensively potent than San Antonio, better defensively than Phoenix. That combo is enough for them to finish the job this time.

Well, how wrong am I?

2006 NBA Preview: Southeast Division

While not as deep as the Central division, this division includes the defending champs, and a couple of young and improving teams.

Atlanta Hawks - The young talent is accumulating in Atlanta. Josh Smith improved each of his first 2 years, and looks posied to be an Andrei Kirilenko type player. Marvin Williams may not have been the right choice over Chris Paul in the draft, but that doesn't mean he's not immensely talented (though injured at the moment). And we all saw what Joe Johnson can do when he played great at PG last year. They're still not anywhere near a playoff spot, but they've got some good, young pieces.

Charlotte Bobcats - The Bobcats cupboard is not bare either. Thanks to starting off going just for youth, along with some solid drafting and FA signing, the Bobcats are a talented, young team. In April, PG Raymond Felton averaged over 17 points and 9 assists per game. I don't know that his numbers will be that good this year, but throw in a scorer in Adam Morrison, and that helps. Gerald Wallace is very possibly the most underrated player in the NBA. He takes high percentage shots, rebounds well, and is great defensively. Inside, they've got depth, with guys like Emeka Okafor, Primoz Brecez, Sean May, Melvin Ely, etc. They're probably a year away, but if things go right, a playoff trip is not out of the realm of possibility.

Miami Heat - If you thought Dwyane Wade carried a big load last year, well, he'll have to do it again. Basically the whole team is back, which is good because they won the title, and bad because they were already old, and now they're just a year older. And with Jason Williams out to start the year, backcourt depth will be very thin. Regardless, they should be able to basically coast through the season and get to the playoffs, where they'll look to regain the magic of last year. As long as they got DWade, they got a chance.

Orlando Magic - Like the Hawks and Bobcats in the division, this is a very young team that will probably be better next year than they are this year. Unlike the Hawks and Bobcats, they're a pretty solid team now as well. It all starts inside with Dwight Howard, a big-time force. He's already perhaps the best rebounder in the NBA, and continues to improve his offensive game. Something like 18 and 14 per game this year is not out of the question at all. Also down low is Darko Milicic. He's another guy I like, and I think Detroit would be a lot better of they had kept him. Darko is immensely talented, and should be a force for the Magic in the future. The backcourt is anchored by Jameer Nelson, who's also young and continues to improve. If Grant Hill can give them at least half a season, they've got a very solid chance to make it to postseason play.

Washington Wizards - The Big 3 returns, and they will once again have to carry the load for the Wizards. Gilbert Arenas is one of the top players in the NBA, Caron Butler averaged 19 and 7 after the All-Star Break, and Antawn Jamison can score from anywhere. But can everyone else chip in? The bench is extremely weak, so they need to stay healthy. Darius Songaila provides some nice front court depth (even if they did overpay), and Antonio Daniels is a very solid 6th Man. If they can stay healthy again, I like them to finish about where they did last year... 4th or 5th seed.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Miami Heat
2. Washington Wizards
3. Orlando Magic
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Atlanta Hawks

USA Traveling Roster cut to 15

As we get closer to the World Championships, the USA Roster was cut to 15, and will later be cut to 12. To get it down to 15 they dropped Luke Ridnour, Adam Morrison, and Shawn Marion (who was hurt). That leaves this group left.

Guards
Chris Paul
Dwyane Wade
Gilbert Arenas
Joe Johnson
Kirk Hinrich

Forwards
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Bruce Bowen
Elton Brand
Shane Battier
Antawn Jamison
Amare Stoudemire
Dwight Howard

Centers
Brad Miller

3 players will be trimmed from the roster to get it down to 12. If I was in charge, I'd probably keep Amare Stoudemire, Shane Battier, and Gilbert Arenas off the roster. There has to still be some concerns about Stoudemire's knee, which is why he'd be off. Batter is solid, but he does the same things well that Bruce Bowen does well, only Bowen is probably a little better. Arenas is tough to leave out, but I'm not sure he fits in too well. The're probably looking for a backup PG (assuming you put Chris Paul at starter), and I think Hinrich fits the role better. He's not as good of a shooter as Arenas, but he's a better defender.

That would leave a starting lineup that looks something like this:

PG Chris Paul
SG Dwyane Wade
SF LeBron James
PF Elton Brand
C Dwight Howard

That actuall bears a lot of similarity to some other team, which really displays the talent of the club.

Off the bench, you'd have shooters (Joe Johnson, Kirk Hinrich, Bruce Bowen)), scorers (Carmelo Anthony), versatile guys (Johnson, Chris Bosh, Antawn Jamison), defenders (Hinrich, Bowen), and big man depth (Bosh, Brad Miller). Just a nice, well-rounded team. If you're more concerned with having a scorer than defender off the bench in the backcourt, you could take Gilbert Arenas over Kirk Hinrich. With Coach K and the rest of the coaching staff, I think Team USA is in good hands.

In other basketball news, according to the reports, Billy Kings has said that Allen Iverson is staying put in Philadelphia. That sound you hear is a loud sigh of relief for me. First off, it's hard to trust Billy King to get a fair deal for Iverson. Sad, but true. Second, when you have a guy that averages 33 points and 8 assists per game and wants to play there and plays his hardest every night (ok, he takes the occasional practice off, but that doesn't take away from how he plays in the game), it's just not a good idea to trade him. It's not Iverson's fault that King has surrounded him with all the wrong players.

Your 2006 NBA Champion... Dwyane Wade (er, the Miami Heat)

First off, congratulations to the Miami Heat. Regardless of what I thought about some of the reffing and other things, Miami was definitely the better team in Game 6 and deserved this title, which they got with the 95-92 win. Some random thoughts on the way things progressed:

• First, let's go to the obvious.... Dwyane Wade was incredible. Other than the final missed FT at the end of Game 6 that left the door open, he could do no wrong. 36 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists is not a bad way to end the series. One of the classic NBA Finals performances throughout for Wade.
  
• After last series, I said that at the time, Dirk was the best player on the planet. After this series... not so much. Looking at Game 6, the numbers look pretty good - 29 points and 15 rebounds - but that doesn't tell the tale. Other than a few FT, he was simply uneffective from the field, missing lots of open shots. For as awesome as he was in the San Antonio and Phoenix series, he was just as disappointing here. Here's what I wrote in my NBA Finals prediction:

And maybe the biggest question of all... do the Heat have any chance of containing Dirk? Looking at it, I'm not sure how. Looking at starting lineups, Udonis Haslem would seem to be the guy starting on him. I'll tell you now that Haslem has no chance at sticking with Dirk on drives to the basket. Same with a guy like Antoine Walker, who's not exactly known for his defensive prowess. Off the bench, maybe James Posey? I would think Dirk could use his postup at the FT line game all day long there. I just don't see how they can stop Dirk. They don't have the athletes on the perimeter. But then, most teams don't.

• As you can see, that thought was way off base, because Udonis Haslem was very good defensively in this series, and even contributed some offensively (more on that later). Hard to see that coming.
  
• As far as on-the-floor-celebrations go, I was a much bigger fan of the Antoine Walker Shimmy than the Alonzo Mourning Hyperventilation. And somehow, I don't think I'm alone in that.
• As TrueHoop wrote in the Game 6 live-blog, I was really looking for a potential Game 7 between these teams. But then, Jason Terry decides to go 7/25, take way too many 3-point shots (2/11 from the game), and miss all of them, including the last one. Terry had a great first 5 games to this series, but man, that was awful. And this is a guy that had hit loads of big shots over the past couple years for the Mavs.
• The second best player for the Heat in Game 6? Not "The Diesel", Zo Mourning and his 6 blocks, or even Antoine Walker (who had 14 and 11). It was Udonis Haslem. He scored 17 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, but his value went beyond that. First, obviously, was his defense on Dirk, which was solid. But the more important thing was how he scored his points. In the 4th quarter, when Dallas played more of a zone defense, which left the middle wide open. Raise your hand if you predicted this before the game - Udonis Haslem was the guy that kept the Dallas defense honest with the mid-range game. Sure, Posey hit the big 3 in the corner, but Haslem was the most consistent (outside Wade) Miami Heat offensive player. I never thought I'd say that!
• Marquis Daniels was the Maverick player with the biggest impact on Game 6. Enough said.
• Like Mighty MJD, I agree that the reffing should not come away as the story of the series. It was subpar at best, but hopefully the prevailing theme from the series will be Dwyane Wade's dominance.
  
• I've seen like a million links to this already, but if you haven't read Bill Simmons' latest column, do yourself a favor and go read it now. As usual, good stuff from the Sports Guy.
  
• By the way, if you need any Heat Title gear, well, you can get that already.
• And so ends what was a great season and great playoffs for the NBA. For what it's worth, I'm not sure I agree with Simmons entirely that this series will set the NBA back (other than maybe the officiating drawing some casual fans away). If anything, I think a lot more people to be watching to see what guys like Dwyane Wade and LeBron James can do. I know I will.

Until next year, you stay classy NBA.

A Wonderful Weekend in the Wide World

I apologize for not posting earlier, but I can explain. I got back from my mini-vacation very early Monday morning, and then I had to work late Monday afternoon. Then, as I'm about to get off work, I get asked if I can stay a little later because we were really busy. So in other words, I didn't get back until about 2 AM, and now I'm writing. Don't think I forgot about you guys!

Anyway, bad alliteration aside, it was a very nice weekend in the wide world of sports, with the NBA Finals, World, lots of baseball, etc. Let's get it started off right, with Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

I must confess I was not able to watch any of the first 3 quarters of the game, but thankfully, I did get to see the 4th quarter and OT. In other words, all the good stuff. Basically, it was everything you'd want from a basketball game. The stakes were enormous, the great players were making plays, the coaching was good, the intensity was there... what a perfect setting.

The star of the game, obviously, was Dwyane Wade. In a game where he did not have his best jumper (only shot 11/28 from the field), he still found a way to score 43 points by setting an NBA Finals record by going 21/25 from the line, including the 2 biggest ones with 1.9 seconds left.

For the Mavs part, Dirk Nowitski once again had a tough go about it, but did make some big plays, including the assist to Dampier near the end of regulation and then the jumper to put Dallas up 1 with about 9 seconds left. But other than that, it wasn't a great game for him. He scored 20 points and had 8 rebounds, but once again he missed a key FT. The best player for the Mavs, yet again in this series, was Jason Terry, who managed to get 35 points. Although, much of the credit for that goes to Gary Payton, who is just not a good on-the-ball defender at this point in his career.

Now, about the reffing. First off, let me say I agree with the refs that the Mavs should have been assessed that timeout. To me, it looked like Howard signalled the timeout more than once as he was walking toward the bench, which would mean he wanted the timeout now. Maverick Moneyball has Howard's side of the story, but to me, this isn't even all that debateable. Avery obviously didn't want the timeout there, but it was called.

However, I wasn't quite so fond of the reffing during the play. First off, Dwyane Wade should have been called for a backcourt violation. There's no going around this. The video evidence is there. He was established in the frontcourt, and jumped into the backcourt as he catching the ball. No debate about that. Now, about the foul. Personally, I'm of the opinion that in that situation, that is not nor should it be called a foul. It was ticky-tack at best. And here's my best evidence - even Hubie Brown was skeptical. I think that's the first time throughout these playoffs that I've heard Hubie voice anything less than full agreement with a foul call. And that's evidence enough!

Anyway, the bottom line is the Heat win 101-100, so the home team has won every game. This is a trend the Mavs hope continue, as Games 6 and 7 will be in Dallas. And yes, that's a prediction. Mavs aren't done yet.


The other big story, of course, at least in this neck of the woods, was USA holding out hope to advance in the World Cup after they tied Italy 1-1. Ok, so there's still a lot of doubt about the officiating, but the important thing is that with a U.S. win over Ghana couple with an Italy victory over Chech, the USA can advance to the knockout round. One thing is certain, I'll be up early Thursday morning watching. And another thing is pretty certain, we might be seeing more soccer games on the primetime channels after the US/Italy game on ABC did well in the ratings.


The most important thing of the weekend, of course, was that the Twins won 7 in a row to get back to .500 at 34-34. They're still a long ways out because the Tigers have been doing rather well, but this is a start. I must admit I don't write too much about the Twins here (well, probably more than most people want!), but for more Twins action, you can always check out the new blog: Thank You Brian Sabean.

That's all for me. Don't get hurt jumping on the bandwagon, new Dwyane Wade followers.

Never bet against Dwyane Wade

Well, it's one thing to be wrong. It's another to be dead wrong. And that's what I was when I predicted Dallas would win Game 4 in Miami. Instead, Miami cruised to a 98-74 win.

Before I go any further, let me give credit to Steph from Steph Surfing, who made the following comment on my post yesterday:

I don't know...somehow I got this feeling like Miami is gonna run away with the game tonight. I'm not really a Miami guy, but I feel like these playoffs are all about momentum and clearly Miami has something going for them after the last game.

Well done, because that's about what happened. Dwyane Wade scored 36 in 40 minutes. The Diesel scored 17 and had 13 rebounds. And they had some role players step up, as James Posey had 15 points and 10 rebounds off the bench, and Antoine Walker chipped in 14.

Add all of this along with a subpar (to put it kindly) game from the Mavericks, and that's why we get the 98-74 final. Dirk was 2/14 from the field. Stackhouse scored 16 off the bench, which is nice, but the only problem was that it took him 18 shots to do it. 31.6%? 3/22 from downtown? It's a wonder the Mavs even kept it within 24.

So yes, I must admit that I was dead wrong. It's amazing how much better the Mavs looked than the Heat in the first 2 games, only to have the opposite be true in Game 4. Hopefully we get back to the close games we've been used to from these playoffs once we get to Game 5 on Sunday night.

Mavs/Heat Game 4 Prediction

First off, I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

Now that I got that out of the way, let's move on to Game 4 of the NBA Finals, with the Mavs currently sporting a 2-1 advantage. As you know Dwyane Wade was pretty much perfect in Game 3, allowing Miami to have a reasonable shot in this thing.

But I'm not convinced.

Ih sure, I believe in the Power of Wade, but consider that their third best player (by far) is Antoine "I'm a Volume Shooter" Walker, and after that you can have your pick of "White Chocolate", James Posey, or Udonis Haslem. That's doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Which is why I like Dallas in Game 4. Considering that the Heat were in front of a pumped home crowd in a must-win game, with their supserstar having an off-the-charts game, and they only won by 2 and got a little luck from Dirk missing a free throw. Don't get me wrong, they deserved this victory, but that's a lot of things happening for a 2-point win.

So what do I see in Game 4? Well, we'll see more of the same defensively on Shaq, especially if no one else (other than Wade, of course) steps up. If Jason Williams or James Posey can hit a couple 3s early things change, but nothing they've done so far leads me to believe that'll happen.

Dallas - 97
Miami - 90

Gary Payton made a jumpshot.

That's pretty much the storyline of the game. At this point, I don't care when GP makes a jumper, and I don't care the situation, I'm going to applaud every time Gary Payton is still able to make a jumpshot. Case in point, Payton is shooting 22% this series, while scoring 1.3 points per game in 22 minutes per game. I think the fact he made a jumper is more significant than the Heat winning the game! But I digress.

The other big story, of course, was that Dwyane Wade can be pretty much unstoppable. 42 points, 13 rebounds against an athletic, solid defensively Mavs team? Unbelievable. Combine that with some actual help from his teammates (3 others in double figures), and we have a series again. Gatorade Dump says this is one of the best efforts in NBA Finals history during his live blog, and well, it's hard to argue with those numbers and the 4th quarter performance.

Dirk once again led the Mavs with 30 points, but he missed the FT that counted. Which was quite a surprise. He's a 90% FT shooter, and he's been clutch throughout the playoffs. I suppose he was due for a miss, but I don't think that'll make him feel any better. Regardless, I'm sure he'll be able to put it behind him and get ready for Game 4 in Miami.

The good thing for Miami? They made this a series again. The bad thing for Miami? If Wade doesn't do something like this in Game 4, then once again the series is just about over.

Dallas gets first blood in the NBA Finals

Dirk was 4/14 from the field for 16 points. Josh Howard was 3/14 from the field for 10 points. But in the end, it didn't matter, as Dallas pulled out the stops defensively for a 90-80 victory in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

With the score at 70-68 heading into the final frame, Dallas tightened up their D and held Miami to only 12 4th quarter points. Tey had built up an 82-72 lead and looked to be ready to bump it up to 12 when Jason Terry's dunk/layup missed, and 7-0 Miami run cut it down to a 3-point game, but it would get no closer. For more 4th quarter goodness, Give Me The Rock liveblogged it.

Despite the missed layup for Terry, he carried them offensively in Game 1, with 32 points on 13/18 shooting, including 4/7 from downtown. They also got a nice contribution off the bench from Jerry Stackhouse, who had 13.

For Miami, the story was missed FT and no help from the bench. On the FT part, only two Heat players took trips to the line, and they were Shaq (1/9) and Dwyane Wade (6/10). 7/19, 36.8%. That right there was more than the final margin. Off the bench, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, and James Posey combined for 2 points in 49 minutes. And those 2 came from James Posey, who was 1/3 from the field. Uh yeah Shaq, looks like you're going to need a lot more than 17 points and 7 rebounds to win games here.

On a final note, I said my only complaint about the NBA Finals was that they were on ABC instead of ESPN, and apparently someone else agrees with me. From The Mighty MJD:

And I’d also like mention real quickly… if any of you find yourselves concerned about tuning in to the games early to catch some of ABC’s pre-game show… just don’t. Use that time to do something a little more informative and intelling, like heading to a nearby truckstop and reading the things that drunk truckers have scribbled on the urine-stained walls.

And on that note, Game 2 will be Sunday night in Dallas. Let's hope for a little more well-played game.

NBA Finals Prediction

Well, after many months, 3 great playoffs series, and the revitilization of the NBA, we're down to 2 teams. The Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat.

Mark Cuban and the Mavs are playing the disrespected card, while Pat Riley and the Heat know they haven't won anything yet, which makes for intriguing stories all around.

The first big storyline, how can the Mavs stop Shaq? Well, there's a couple ways. One, they've got the big bodies to bang with him down in the post, namely Desagana Diop and Eric Dampier. But the most effective way to take Shaq out of the game is to get him in foul trouble. Of course, getting someone into foul trouble is never as easy as it sounds, but the Mavs have the capability of doing this because they should be able to get to the rim all day against the slower Heat defenders on the perimeter, leaving them driving against Shaq, who's bound to commit fouls sometime on the defensive end. If they do that, it takes away the equalizer the Heat have.

The second question, how can the Mavs stop Dwyane Wade? After all, he's arguably even more dangerous than Shaq Fu. Once again, the Mavs have a multitude of options, a testament to their depth. Adrian Griffin will probably be back into the starting lineup (replacing Devin Harris), and will presumably start on Wade. But make no mistake, Wade will see plenty of Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels over the course of the series, along with whatever schemes Avery Johnson has up his sleeve. I have no doubt that Wade will get his, because he's just that good, but he'll be working for it.

And maybe the biggest question of all... do the Heat have any chance of containing Dirk? Looking at it, I'm not sure how. Looking at starting lineups, Udonis Haslem would seem to be the guy starting on him. I'll tell you now that Haslem has no chance at sticking with Dirk on drives to the basket. Same with a guy like Antoine Walker, who's not exactly known for his defensive prowess. Off the bench, maybe James Posey? I would think Dirk could use his postup at the FT line game all day long there. I just don't see how they can stop Dirk. They don't have the athletes on the perimeter. But then, most teams don't.

But the best matchup might be between the coaches. In each of the last two series, Avery Johnson has made huge adjustments (Devin Harris, Desagana Diop) which obviously have had huge impacts, and he has the roster to be flexible. Meanwhile, as TrueHoop says (he has the Heat in 6), Riley did something to bring this team together, and they're playing their best basketball at the most opportune time.

However, everything in this series for me points to the Mavs winning it. They have the best player on the court (right now, Dirk is beyond anyone else), they have the coaching, they have the depth at all the right positions (down low to guard Shaq, on the wing to guard against Wade), and they have the home-court advantage.

If Shaq plays like the did in Game 6 against Detroit all series, that's about the only way I think Miami can win. Well, that or Wade goes from great to Superman, and scores about 35-40 a game. But against the improved Mavs defense, I don't see it. These Mavericks are too fast, too deep, and playing too well right now.

NBA Finals Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in 6.

2011 All-NBA Teams

I got this idea directly from the mighty mjd sports blog. He wrote about this idea a couple weeks ago, and I thought it was really cool, but it took me a while to finally get the time to write it. A lot of my picks are similar to his, but then we obviously have a lot of differences (as you'll see). I tried to keep the positions as best I could, but some maybe be a little off.

First Team

PG Chris Paul - Tough call early on, but I think Paul is the best PG of the future. The jumper needs work, but that's true for most rookies. He still can score, he's a great passer, he's unselfish, and he doesn't turn it over. His 3.34 A/T ratio was 6th in the NBA last year. Also snagged 5 boards a game, which is nice to get from a guard. Add in the fact that he nearly led his team to the playoffs as a rookie, and well, here he is.
SG Dwyane Wade - Does it all. Averaged 27 points per game, over 5 rebounds, and nearly 7 assists as a 2 guard. He's a solid defender, very athletic, and he shot nearly 50% from the field this year. By 2011 (actually, even earlier than that), I suspect he'll be the 2nd best player in the NBA behind the next guy.
SF LeBron James - We all know about him, so I'll be brief. Most athletic player in the NBA. Best finisher at the rim in the NBA. Great passer, solid rebounder, and always gives maximum effort. He's got to improve his jumper some more, and become a better on-the-ball defender, but those are small complaints in comparison to everything that he does so well.
PF Dwight Howard - Just an absolute monster on the glass, and he can't even drink yet. His 12.5 rebounds per game were second in the NBA. Improving offensive game, upping his scoring average by almsot 14 points a game in his second year. Explosive around the rim, shoots a great percentage (53% last year). Oh yeah, did I mention he's only 20 years old?
C Yao Ming - He gets ragged on a lot for some of the things he doesn't do, but the truth is, he's a great player. Upped his scoring average each of his first 4 years, scoring over 22 per game last year. Feathery touch around the basket, and he's almost too unselfish at times. Not a great rebounder, but grabs over 10 a game down there. At times he's unstoppable down low, and when he get that consistency down, he'll be even more of an unstoppable force down low.

Second Team

PG Gilbert Arenas - I had a very tough time choosing between Arenas and Paul for the First Team PG spot, but went with Paul there, but that's no slight to Gilbert. He's a great scorer, averaging 29 per game last year. He's a solid distributor with 6.1 assists a game, but he was #1 in the NBA last year in turnovers, which is ultimately why I took Paul over him. Best second round pick ever. That sound you hear is Warriors fans trying to stick their head in an oven.
SG Kobe Bryant - Obviously he showed us all the things he can do with the vastly different styles of play in the regular season and playoffs. Unbelievably skilled, and should be entering his prime now. He showed during the season that he can score lots of points on anybody, but then showed during the playoffs that he's a great passer. Tough call between him and Wade, but I suspect that in 5 years when Kobe's lost a step Wade will overtake him, but Bryant will still be a star.
SF Carmelo Anthony - Looking beyond his poor performance in the playoffs, he was one of the most improved players in the NBA last year. He learned to be more consistent last year, and got to the hoop more (nearly 150 more FT last year than in 2005). The results? An increase in scoring and lots of game winners. He needs to help more on the boards, and he needs to get better defensively, but don't forget, he only just turned 22.
PF Dirk Nowitski - Along with Kobe, the senior member of this group, but I believe he's taken the next step this year to become to more complete, superstar player. Unbelievable shooter, whether he's taking a running three or a fadeaway from the elbow. Not a great defensive player, but he's improving under Avery Johnson. Always been a good rebounder and good passer. Doesn't rely so much on athleticism, which is why he'll still be very good in 5 years.
C Greg Oden - Obviously the most controversial pick here, but he projects to be a star player. From all reports, he's a great rebounder, great defensive player, very good inside scorer... the only question marks are that he hasn't played against great competition. Let me put it this way, I'd be more surprised if he's not on at least the All-NBA Third team than if he's on the All-NBA 1st Team.

Third Team

PG Shaun Livingston - I absolutely love Livingston's game. He a tall PG, at 6'7'', ut he's quick enough to guard the small point guards (such as Steve Nash during the playoffs), which gives him the potential to be very good defensively. Offensively, he's very quick, good off the dribble, a great passer, and pretty unselfish. He's not a very good shooter right now, but he's only 20 years old, and his physical skills are so good I'll give it a pass for now. As a scrawny guy coming off the bench to play 25 minutes a game, he averaged 4.7 RPG in the playoffs.
SG Kirk Hinrich - If you would have told me I would put Hinrich on a list like this when he was coming out of college, I would have told you that you were crazy. But the more I watch Hinrich, the more I like him. He's a good scorer at 15.9 PPG, a good passer at 6.3 APG, and he takes care of the ball. But he's also a very good defensive player. He's always in the right spot, which makes him so good even if he's not overly athletic. I love his game, and he's the forgotten 5th man from the 2003 Draft (taken 7th overall).
SF Boris Diaw - Ok, so he's not really a SF. I admit, I had to lie a little to fit him in. At age 24, he does a little bit of everything. He can score down in the post, he can hit the midrange jumper, and he can take bigger guys off the dribble (just ask DeSagana Diop). But he's also a good rebounder, and a great passer who always finds the open man. He's an efficient weapon, and too good to leave off.
PF Amare Stoudemire - The hardest player to project because of the injury. If he's fully healthy like he was before the knee injury, he's probably on the first team over Dwight Howard (or Yao, if you consider him a center). However, there's no way of telling how he'll be when he's back. Microfracture surgery has diminished Jason Kidd's skills (although he's still a good player because of his other skills), and Stoudemire depends more on his athleticism than Kidd does. I think he'll still be a great player when he comes back, but I'm not sure if he'll have quite the explosiveness, which is why I put him here.
C - Chris Bosh - Ok, so maybe he's not officially a center, but you get the idea. He's too good to leave off. He can score in the post or in the midrange, he's a solid rebounder, and he's excellent when he gets to the line. And the best part? He's still only 22, despite having 3 quality seasons under his belt. Last year was the first of many All-Star games for this guy.

So, how does it look? Am I way off here? What changes would you make?

The Heat will be playing in the NBA Finals

In a disappointing, not overly-competitive game, the Heat have advanced to the NBA Finals are their 95-78 victory over 2-time defending Eastern Conference Champion Detroit in Game 6.

Let's get one thing straight before we go any further - This series wasn't about Detroit "not showing up." It wasn't about Detroit thinking they could turn it on when they wanted. It was about Miami simply playing a lot better basketball than the Pistons did over 6 games.

Not that Miami, save for Shaq Fu and Jason Williams, played all that well in Game 6. Dwyane Wade was sick with the flu, and was only able to contribute 14 points on 6/15 shooting. Antoine Walker scored 11 points and grabbed 4 rebounds, and the bench combined to score only 13 points (though that was better than the Pistons' bench scoring 9). None of it mattered. Behind Shaq's 28, "White Chocolate's" 21, and the poor shooting from Detroit, Miami built a 5 point lead after the first quarter and it slowly kept building.

The Pistons were able to get plenty of open looks, but they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Collectively, they shot 33.3% from the field, but only 6/21 from downtown. The indiviual numbers weren't so impressive either:

Ben Wallace - 7 points, 7 rebounds, and getting abused down low by the Big Aristotle. But on the bright side, he was 3/4 from the charity stripe.
Rasheed Wallace - I suppose this was the fitting ending for this series for Rasheed. 4/12 shooting, 10 points.
Tayshaun Prince - Had been so impressive all series, but couldn't get it going today. 3/9 shooting, 10 points, 7 rebounds.
Richard Hamilton - Managed to score 33 points, but it took him 28 shots to do it.
Chauncey Billups - Over the past couple years earned a rep as one of the clutchest players in the NBA. In Game 6, however, he was 3/14 from the field (0/3 from downtown) for 9 points. He did have 8 assists, but that wasn't nearly enough to make up for the dreadful shooting.

So now the intriguing story for the Pistons - was this Ben Wallace's final game in Detroit? Chris Sheridan says Wallace is "coy" about his future. On Kevin Antcliff's site, you can already vote on what Detroit should do. Either way, Joe Dumars has put himself in an extremely precarious position. He already made one of the big draft blunders ever taking Darko (although I like Darko's potential), and then he shuffled him off for cap room to be able to resign Wallace. But that was before Wallace's postseason struggles. Personally, in hindsight, I think the Pistons would be a lot better off long-term if they had kept Darko and gotten rid of Big Ben after this year, but that's neither here nor there. Wallace is still a premier defensive player, but his offense is awful, and his game is predicated on energy, which is bound to slow down a little bit as he gets older. That and the fact that he's going to be possibly wanting $12 million a year to stay, well, that doesn't bode well for Motown. The problem now for Dumars is that there's no one on the FA market that could come close to replacing him.

As for the Heat, they now await the winner of Dallas/Phoenix, both teams that present big problems for Miami (more on that at a later date). But for now, they can soak up the sunshine for a couple days, as they prepare for their first ever NBA Finals Appearance.