Pittsburgh (-3) over Miami
I think Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back, making their offense balanced again. Miami has some nice wins this season, but I'm not sure Chad Henne is going to be very effective against this defense. I like Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game in Miami, with Roethlisberger making the difference.
Cincinnati (+3.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta looked like it might have a chance to be the class of the NFC, and then they got beat easily by Philly. Cincy started off well before tailing off, but they know they need a win to try and salvage their season. Look for a good gameplan from Mike Zimmer, and just enough plays out of the Cincy offense to pull off an upset.
St. Louis (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
After last week's win over the Chargers, I believe in the Rams in the NFC West. The defensive front is getting after people just like Spagnulo's Giants' teams used to do. The offense, thanks to Sam Bradford, is showing more signs of life than they have in years. Something is brewing in St. Louis, and I think it will be enough to beat the Bucs.
San Francisco (-3) over Carolina
2-5 an the Niners will start to believe. The musical chairs of Carolina quarterback goes back to Matt Moore. Won't make a difference for this punchless offense, as teams will just load the box. Carolina's receivers aren't good enough to beat anyone.
Washington (+3) over Chicago
The Bears correction continues, as the Redskins are showing signs of being solid. Donovan McNabb is playing better than Jay Cutler right now, which is why I will take the Skins. The Bears need to get Matt Forte the ball in the running game, because teams will be going after Cutler with the way the offensive line has performed this season.
New Orleans (-13.5) over Cleveland
The Saints appear to have some of their mojo back, particularly if they can continue a strong rushing attack. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good in his first game starting in his career, but there is not enough firepower in Cleveland to compete with the Saints.
Buffalo (+13) over Baltimore
Baltimore should win the game easily, but I think the Bills will be able to make the final score respectable. Fred Jackson should get more touches after the trade of Marshawn Lynch, and that could be a good thing. It will also be interesting to see if they have anything new for CJ Spiller. Ryan Fitzgerald is not anyone's answer to a long-term solution at QB, but he is serviceable, which is more than you could say about Trent Edwards.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over Tennessee
I believe in Kevin Kolb. He looked great against Atlanta, and he appears to have the timing of the offense down. The only thing that concerns me is that Desean Jackson will be out of the game, which is a big blow to the offense. Still, I have more faith in Philly's run game than Tennessee's pass game, which is why I will take the Eagles here.
Seattle (-5.5) over Arizona
Nice win by Seattle last week, showing that they could win a road game, which was in question for me before that game. At home, I think they will overwhelm Arizona, who is better with Max Hall than they were with Derek Anderson (or Matt Leinart), but not good enough to be a serious contender.
Denver (-7) over Oakland
The Broncos have played well, just are struggling to get over the hump. The Raiders, meanwhile, looked awful last week, and Kyle Boller could be getting the start this week. I think Denver's offense is a lot more explosive than the Raiders, even with the lack of a running game.
New England (+3) over San Diego
New England looks like the Patriots of old... a bunch of scrappy guys just going out there and playing. I can't put my finger on what is different after essentially trading Randy Moss for Deion Branch, but SOMETHING is. And it's clear that as great as Moss is, things were not working out this season. The Patriots look like a force the rest of the way to me.
Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay
The game that is full of storylines. Favre comes back to Lambeau again, and this time the Packers are reeling. The Packers know that if they lose this game, the Vikings have all of the momentum in the division. Still, I like the Vikings D (which has quietly been excellent) to get after Aaron Rodgers like they did last year, and for Favre to hit Moss on a deep ball that will make the difference.
Dallas (-3) over New York
The NFC East seems to always have these types of games... one team is struggling, the other team is playing well... but talent-wise, they are close to even, and there is one team that really needs the game more than the other team. Dallas will be in desperation mode. At home in Big D, I'll take Dallas to prolong the death of their season for another week.
Showing posts with label Picks Against the Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Picks Against the Spread. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Thursday, September 24, 2009
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2009: Week 3
Back for the always challenging picking against the spread! When I used to do these in the past, my goal was always .500... so I will stick with that as a goal. Let's just say there is a reason I don't gamble! But picking against the spread is more fun and challenging than picking straight up.
I just got my odds from here, taking the most common line at the time if there are any discrepancies between all of them.
Titans (+3) over Jets
Perhaps no team has been more impressive over 2 weeks than the Jets (#5 in my power rankings), but I think this will be a case of one team desperately needing a win, and the other wanting a win. The Titans, at 0-2, need a win. They have playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, and they are too good to fall to 0-3 and let them die.
Packers (-6.5) over Rams
The Rams are averaging 3.5 PPG over the first two weeks. Nope, that is not a misprint.
Lions (+6.5) over Redskins
A lot of people are saying this is the week the streak ends (including Peter King, though he said that last week too)... I'm not sold, but I think it will be an ugly game. I like the Redskins to win a game that feels like a loss... sorta like last week. Something like 16-13 with a late FG.
Chiefs (+8.5) over Eagles
Without Donovan McNabb, I like the Eagles to struggle for this victory. The defense got shredded last week by the Saints. And while no one will mistake this Chiefs offense for the Saints offense, I think Todd Haley will be able to exploit some things to keep the game at least close.
Patriots (-4) over Falcons
Another desperation game... not that the Patriots are done if they fall to 1-2, but they just need to get some of their mojo back. This would be a good place to start by beating a good Falcons team. Tony Gonzalez has added another dimension to the Falcons offense. New England needs to get better pressure on the QB or else Matt Ryan will pick them apart. I like Bill Belicheck to get it done.
Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars
Jack Del Rio, start updating your resume.
Vikings (-6.5) over 49ers
I know Frank Gore is real good, and the Niners have looked solid going 2-0. But they beat a sleepwalking Cardinals team and a Seahawks team that didn't have Matt Hasselbeck for much of the game. Let's not get too crazy yet. The Vikings need to start getting off to quicker starts, but I still like them by two touchdowns.
Ravens (-13) over Browns
Yep, the Ravens offense is pretty stinkin' good this year too. The Browns lost to Denver by 21 last week... I like the Ravens to do the same thing to them.
Giants (-6.5) over Bucs
The Bucs defenders keep dropping, and the passing game can't get much consistency. Cadillac is a great story, but the Bucs are just not a good football team right now. Meanwhile, the Giants passing game is finding its groove, which should only open things up more for the running game.
Saints (-6) over Bills
Until the Saints prove me wrong, I will assume nobody can stop them. Buffalo has been fairly impressive this year and they look like they could challenge for a playoff spot if things break right. But they still aren't getting TO very involved, and you have to think he won't like that for too much longer. The Saints defense has just been good enough to think the Saints could be contenders this year, and I like that trend to continue against Buffalo.
Bears (-2) over Seahawks
If Matt Hasselbeck plays, he won't be anywhere near 100%. That does not bode well for a very mediocre Seahawks team. Plus, the defense didn't look so good either giving up TD runs of 79 and 80 yards against Frank Gore. Look for Forte to finally get on track running the football this week.
Bengals (+4) over Steelers
I'm not sure the Bengals have enough to upset Pittsburgh, but I think they keep it real close. Pittsburgh has not looked very dominant through 2 games, while the Bengals looked surprisingly solid winning at Lambeau last week. Look for them to try to get Cedric Benson involved again, which will set them up to make just enough plays in the passing game to keep this a tight ballgame.
Dolphins (+6) over Chargers
I am guessing the Dolphins will try a similar strategy that they tried against the Colts... with about the same result.
Raiders (+1.5) over Broncos
Not that JaMarcus Russell and his 35% completion rate (seriously... 35%... no, seriously) is that impressive, I think the Raiders are a better overall team than the Broncos. With the game being played at Oakland, I like them to take a squeaker against their bitter rivals from Denver.
Colts (+2.5) over Cardinals
I know Arizona is at home and played well last week... but the Cardinals are favored? I was a bit surprised, I must admit. I simply think the Colts are a much better team than the Cardinals. They got gouged in the running game last week against Miami, but Arizona is not exactly a team that is going to exploit that weakness.
Panthers (+8.5) over Cowboys
For some reason, the Panthers just bore me. I don't know what it is about them, but I am just not interested at all in them. I think something about Jake Delhomme is just so unenticing to me, that even with the dynamic running backs they have (not to mention Steve Smith), I just don't care to ever see them play. What that has to do with me picking them to cover, I don't know.
What are your thoughts? Which picks do you disagree with?
I just got my odds from here, taking the most common line at the time if there are any discrepancies between all of them.
Titans (+3) over Jets
Perhaps no team has been more impressive over 2 weeks than the Jets (#5 in my power rankings), but I think this will be a case of one team desperately needing a win, and the other wanting a win. The Titans, at 0-2, need a win. They have playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, and they are too good to fall to 0-3 and let them die.
Packers (-6.5) over Rams
The Rams are averaging 3.5 PPG over the first two weeks. Nope, that is not a misprint.
Lions (+6.5) over Redskins
A lot of people are saying this is the week the streak ends (including Peter King, though he said that last week too)... I'm not sold, but I think it will be an ugly game. I like the Redskins to win a game that feels like a loss... sorta like last week. Something like 16-13 with a late FG.
Chiefs (+8.5) over Eagles
Without Donovan McNabb, I like the Eagles to struggle for this victory. The defense got shredded last week by the Saints. And while no one will mistake this Chiefs offense for the Saints offense, I think Todd Haley will be able to exploit some things to keep the game at least close.
Patriots (-4) over Falcons
Another desperation game... not that the Patriots are done if they fall to 1-2, but they just need to get some of their mojo back. This would be a good place to start by beating a good Falcons team. Tony Gonzalez has added another dimension to the Falcons offense. New England needs to get better pressure on the QB or else Matt Ryan will pick them apart. I like Bill Belicheck to get it done.
Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars
Jack Del Rio, start updating your resume.
Vikings (-6.5) over 49ers
I know Frank Gore is real good, and the Niners have looked solid going 2-0. But they beat a sleepwalking Cardinals team and a Seahawks team that didn't have Matt Hasselbeck for much of the game. Let's not get too crazy yet. The Vikings need to start getting off to quicker starts, but I still like them by two touchdowns.
Ravens (-13) over Browns
Yep, the Ravens offense is pretty stinkin' good this year too. The Browns lost to Denver by 21 last week... I like the Ravens to do the same thing to them.
Giants (-6.5) over Bucs
The Bucs defenders keep dropping, and the passing game can't get much consistency. Cadillac is a great story, but the Bucs are just not a good football team right now. Meanwhile, the Giants passing game is finding its groove, which should only open things up more for the running game.
Saints (-6) over Bills
Until the Saints prove me wrong, I will assume nobody can stop them. Buffalo has been fairly impressive this year and they look like they could challenge for a playoff spot if things break right. But they still aren't getting TO very involved, and you have to think he won't like that for too much longer. The Saints defense has just been good enough to think the Saints could be contenders this year, and I like that trend to continue against Buffalo.
Bears (-2) over Seahawks
If Matt Hasselbeck plays, he won't be anywhere near 100%. That does not bode well for a very mediocre Seahawks team. Plus, the defense didn't look so good either giving up TD runs of 79 and 80 yards against Frank Gore. Look for Forte to finally get on track running the football this week.
Bengals (+4) over Steelers
I'm not sure the Bengals have enough to upset Pittsburgh, but I think they keep it real close. Pittsburgh has not looked very dominant through 2 games, while the Bengals looked surprisingly solid winning at Lambeau last week. Look for them to try to get Cedric Benson involved again, which will set them up to make just enough plays in the passing game to keep this a tight ballgame.
Dolphins (+6) over Chargers
I am guessing the Dolphins will try a similar strategy that they tried against the Colts... with about the same result.
Raiders (+1.5) over Broncos
Not that JaMarcus Russell and his 35% completion rate (seriously... 35%... no, seriously) is that impressive, I think the Raiders are a better overall team than the Broncos. With the game being played at Oakland, I like them to take a squeaker against their bitter rivals from Denver.
Colts (+2.5) over Cardinals
I know Arizona is at home and played well last week... but the Cardinals are favored? I was a bit surprised, I must admit. I simply think the Colts are a much better team than the Cardinals. They got gouged in the running game last week against Miami, but Arizona is not exactly a team that is going to exploit that weakness.
Panthers (+8.5) over Cowboys
For some reason, the Panthers just bore me. I don't know what it is about them, but I am just not interested at all in them. I think something about Jake Delhomme is just so unenticing to me, that even with the dynamic running backs they have (not to mention Steve Smith), I just don't care to ever see them play. What that has to do with me picking them to cover, I don't know.
What are your thoughts? Which picks do you disagree with?
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Giants/Redskins Pick
Not sure if I'll have time to do my picks against the spread this year, but I'll try. And with the season opener tonight, I'll give my pick here for the defending champion Giants taking on the Washington Redskins.
I'll take the Redskins (+4.5).
Of course, if you'll remember how my picks last year went (when I was under .500), you definitely won't want to put any stock into the picks. But it's fun to try.
I like Jason Campbell to take another step forward for the Skins this year, helping lead the Skins. If Clinton Portis can stay healthy again, he's a top 10 back. Plus, I'm not sold on the Giants this year... obviously Eli has taken a step forward, but can he do it on a consistent basis? Will Plaxico be focused every week after the Super Bowl win? Can Brandon Jacobs stay healthy? Can the defense play as well as they did at the end of last year? Lots of questions.
Giants 20, Redskins 17.
I'll take the Redskins (+4.5).
Of course, if you'll remember how my picks last year went (when I was under .500), you definitely won't want to put any stock into the picks. But it's fun to try.
I like Jason Campbell to take another step forward for the Skins this year, helping lead the Skins. If Clinton Portis can stay healthy again, he's a top 10 back. Plus, I'm not sold on the Giants this year... obviously Eli has taken a step forward, but can he do it on a consistent basis? Will Plaxico be focused every week after the Super Bowl win? Can Brandon Jacobs stay healthy? Can the defense play as well as they did at the end of last year? Lots of questions.
Giants 20, Redskins 17.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 17
The final week of the season! Unfortunately, I'll basically need to run the table to reach .500. Hmmm... maybe next year. Anyway, the week 17 picks:
Patriots (-13.5) over Giants'
Rams (+6) over Cardinals
Falcons (-1) over Seahawks
Panthers (-3) over Bucs
Bengals (-3) over Dolphins
Bengals (-10) over 49ers
Lions (+4) over Packers
Jaguars (+6.5) over Texans
Vikings (-3) over Broncos
Saints (-2) over Bears
Chiefs (+6.5) over Jets
Eagles (-7.5) over Bills
Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens
Chargers (-8.5) over Raiders
Colts (+6) over Titans
Redskins (-9) over Cowboys
Last Week: 6-9
Season: 101-111-10
Patriots (-13.5) over Giants'
Rams (+6) over Cardinals
Falcons (-1) over Seahawks
Panthers (-3) over Bucs
Bengals (-3) over Dolphins
Bengals (-10) over 49ers
Lions (+4) over Packers
Jaguars (+6.5) over Texans
Vikings (-3) over Broncos
Saints (-2) over Bears
Chiefs (+6.5) over Jets
Eagles (-7.5) over Bills
Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens
Chargers (-8.5) over Raiders
Colts (+6) over Titans
Redskins (-9) over Cowboys
Last Week: 6-9
Season: 101-111-10
Friday, December 21, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 16
Only 2 more weeks left as we continue on with the drive to .500!
Panthers (+10.5) over Cowboys
Cardinals (-10) over Falcons
Browns (-2.5) over Bengals
Chiefs (+4.5) over Lions
Bears (+8.5) over Packers
Texans (+7) over Colts
Jaguars (-13) over Raiders
Vikings (-6.5) over Redskins
Patriots (-22) over Dolphins
Eagles (+3) over Saints
Bills (+2.5) over Giants
Ravens (+10.5) over Seahawks
Bucs (-5.5) over 49ers
Jets (+8.5) over Titans
Chargers (-8.5) over Broncos
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 95-102-10
Panthers (+10.5) over Cowboys
Cardinals (-10) over Falcons
Browns (-2.5) over Bengals
Chiefs (+4.5) over Lions
Bears (+8.5) over Packers
Texans (+7) over Colts
Jaguars (-13) over Raiders
Vikings (-6.5) over Redskins
Patriots (-22) over Dolphins
Eagles (+3) over Saints
Bills (+2.5) over Giants
Ravens (+10.5) over Seahawks
Bucs (-5.5) over 49ers
Jets (+8.5) over Titans
Chargers (-8.5) over Broncos
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 95-102-10
Thursday, December 13, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 15
I realize I missed Thursday's game... finals have been the death of me (well, not quite, but you know what I mean) this week. Anyway, my picks as we are nearing the end of my drive to .500!
Bengals (-8) over 49ers
Ravens (-3.5) over Dolphins
Eagles (+10.5) over Cowboys
Packers (-9.5) over Rams
Colts (-10.5) over Raiders
Patriots (-23) over Jets
Cardinals (-3.5) over Saints
Redskins (+4.5) over Giants
Jaguars (+3.5) over Steelers
Lions (+10) over Chargers
Seahawks (-7.5) over Panthers
Falcons (+13.5) over Bucs
Titans (-4) over Chiefs
Vikings (-10) over Bears
Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 90-93-10
Bengals (-8) over 49ers
Ravens (-3.5) over Dolphins
Eagles (+10.5) over Cowboys
Packers (-9.5) over Rams
Colts (-10.5) over Raiders
Patriots (-23) over Jets
Cardinals (-3.5) over Saints
Redskins (+4.5) over Giants
Jaguars (+3.5) over Steelers
Lions (+10) over Chargers
Seahawks (-7.5) over Panthers
Falcons (+13.5) over Bucs
Titans (-4) over Chiefs
Vikings (-10) over Bears
Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 90-93-10
Friday, December 07, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 14
I missed the Bears/Redskins game, but here are the rest of the week 14 picks as I continue my drive for .500!
Bills (-7) over Dolphins
Rams (+6.5) over Bengals
Browns (-3) over Jets
Cowboys (-10.5) over Lions
Chiefs (+6.5) over Broncos
Raiders (+10.5) over Packers
Colts (-9) over Ravens
Jaguars (-10.5) over Panthers
Vikings (-8.5) over 49ers
Patriots (-10.5) over Steelers
Giants (+3) over Eagles
Cardinals (+7) over Seahawks
Bucs (-3) over Texans
Chargers (PK) over Titans
Saints (-4) over Falcons
Last Week: 6-9
Season: 81-87-10
Bills (-7) over Dolphins
Rams (+6.5) over Bengals
Browns (-3) over Jets
Cowboys (-10.5) over Lions
Chiefs (+6.5) over Broncos
Raiders (+10.5) over Packers
Colts (-9) over Ravens
Jaguars (-10.5) over Panthers
Vikings (-8.5) over 49ers
Patriots (-10.5) over Steelers
Giants (+3) over Eagles
Cardinals (+7) over Seahawks
Bucs (-3) over Texans
Chargers (PK) over Titans
Saints (-4) over Falcons
Last Week: 6-9
Season: 81-87-10
Saturday, December 01, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 13
This week did not get off to a good start (as I picked the Packers), but I will attempt to redeem myself as I continue my drive for .500.
Browns (PK) over Cardinals
Panthers (-3) over 49ers
Broncos (-3.5) over Raiders
Jaguars (+6.5) over Colts
Jets (+1) over Dolphins
Vikings (-4) over Lions
Bucs (+3.5) over Saints
Bears (+1.5) over Giants
Eagles (-3) over Seahawks
Bengals (+7) over Steelers
Chargers (-6) over Chiefs
Falcons (+3) over Rams
Texans (+3.5) over Titans
Redskins (-5.5) over Bills
Patriots (-20) over Ravens
This Week: 0-1
Season: 75-78-10
Browns (PK) over Cardinals
Panthers (-3) over 49ers
Broncos (-3.5) over Raiders
Jaguars (+6.5) over Colts
Jets (+1) over Dolphins
Vikings (-4) over Lions
Bucs (+3.5) over Saints
Bears (+1.5) over Giants
Eagles (-3) over Seahawks
Bengals (+7) over Steelers
Chargers (-6) over Chiefs
Falcons (+3) over Rams
Texans (+3.5) over Titans
Redskins (-5.5) over Bills
Patriots (-20) over Ravens
This Week: 0-1
Season: 75-78-10
Thursday, November 29, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Packers @ Cowboys
Last week I picked the Thanksgiving games and then in the hoopla of the holiday season forgot to pick the rest... so yeah. Anyway.
At the start of the year I was not sold on the Packers as legitimate contenders. The reasons were obvious... they had no running game, and I had watched Brett Favre play the past 2-3 years, when he was just as likely to make a game-changing mistake as he was to making a big play. Plus, the Packers are my least favorite team in the world. It's true.
So when they got off to the quick start, I was just assuming that they would quickly fall back down to Earth. But then a funny thing happened... they kept winning. Now they're 10-1 and facing the Cowboys in the 2nd biggest game of the year (not that I will actually, you know, get to see it).
The Cowboys are favored by 7, and maybe for good reason. They're at home, and they've had the most explosive offense in the NFC so far this year.
But I'm going to take the Packers, not only to cover, but to win this game outright. Just a feeling. Their running game is getting better and better, the defense is fantastic (great corners, good pass rush, fast LBs). Plus, the passing game is firing on all cylinders right now. Favre is avoiding the big mistakes, the receivers are making plays after the catch.
So with that said, the Packers are my pick in this game. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 75-77-10
At the start of the year I was not sold on the Packers as legitimate contenders. The reasons were obvious... they had no running game, and I had watched Brett Favre play the past 2-3 years, when he was just as likely to make a game-changing mistake as he was to making a big play. Plus, the Packers are my least favorite team in the world. It's true.
So when they got off to the quick start, I was just assuming that they would quickly fall back down to Earth. But then a funny thing happened... they kept winning. Now they're 10-1 and facing the Cowboys in the 2nd biggest game of the year (not that I will actually, you know, get to see it).
The Cowboys are favored by 7, and maybe for good reason. They're at home, and they've had the most explosive offense in the NFC so far this year.
But I'm going to take the Packers, not only to cover, but to win this game outright. Just a feeling. Their running game is getting better and better, the defense is fantastic (great corners, good pass rush, fast LBs). Plus, the passing game is firing on all cylinders right now. Favre is avoiding the big mistakes, the receivers are making plays after the catch.
So with that said, the Packers are my pick in this game. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 75-77-10
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Thanksgiving
3 games on Turkey Day... I'll make my picks for those, and pick the rest later in the week.
Jets (+14) over Cowboys
Jets have been playing a little better the last couple of weeks with Kellen Clemens, and I'm not sure they're quite as bad as their 2-8 record indicates. I think Leon Washington makes a couple big plays and allows the Jets to keep it close. Obviously I still like the Cowboys to win, but I think the Jets can keep it semi-respectable.
Packers (-3.5) over Lions
Lost in the Brett Favre hoopla is the fact that the Packers defense is really good. Kitna tends to struggle and make some bad decisions when there is pressure on him, and I think that will be the case in this game. Plus, the Lions secondary is nothing to write home about... I think Favre and the passing game will go wild against the Lions.
Colts (-11.5) over Falcons
The Colts have to be better than they showed the last 2 weeks, right? Peyton Manning has been really bad, which is not a trend I expect to continue.
Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 73-76-10
Jets (+14) over Cowboys
Jets have been playing a little better the last couple of weeks with Kellen Clemens, and I'm not sure they're quite as bad as their 2-8 record indicates. I think Leon Washington makes a couple big plays and allows the Jets to keep it close. Obviously I still like the Cowboys to win, but I think the Jets can keep it semi-respectable.
Packers (-3.5) over Lions
Lost in the Brett Favre hoopla is the fact that the Packers defense is really good. Kitna tends to struggle and make some bad decisions when there is pressure on him, and I think that will be the case in this game. Plus, the Lions secondary is nothing to write home about... I think Favre and the passing game will go wild against the Lions.
Colts (-11.5) over Falcons
The Colts have to be better than they showed the last 2 weeks, right? Peyton Manning has been really bad, which is not a trend I expect to continue.
Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 73-76-10
Thursday, November 15, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 11
Hectic week... I'm sorry. Again, just my quick picks.
Bengals (-3) over Cardinals
Browns (-3) over Ravens
Cowboys (-10.5) over Redskins
Panthers (+9.5) over Packers
Saints (+1.5) over Texans
Chiefs (+14.5) over Colts
Chargers (+3) over Jaguars
Vikings (-5) over Raiders
Patriots (-16) over Bills
Giants (-3) over Lions
(That one is for you Bryan!)
Eagles (-10) over Dolphins
Jets (+9.5) over Steelers
Bears (+5.5) over Seahawks
Rams (-3) over 49ers
Bucs (-3) over Falcons
Titans (+2) over Broncos
Last Week: 8-5-1
Season: 66-69-8
Bengals (-3) over Cardinals
Browns (-3) over Ravens
Cowboys (-10.5) over Redskins
Panthers (+9.5) over Packers
Saints (+1.5) over Texans
Chiefs (+14.5) over Colts
Chargers (+3) over Jaguars
Vikings (-5) over Raiders
Patriots (-16) over Bills
Giants (-3) over Lions
(That one is for you Bryan!)
Eagles (-10) over Dolphins
Jets (+9.5) over Steelers
Bears (+5.5) over Seahawks
Rams (-3) over 49ers
Bucs (-3) over Falcons
Titans (+2) over Broncos
Last Week: 8-5-1
Season: 66-69-8
Friday, November 09, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 10
Home for Veteran's Day... quick picks:
Lions (+1) over Cardinals
Bengals (+3.5) over Ravens
Bills (-3) over Dolphins
Falcons (+4) over Panthers
Bears (-3.5) over Raiders
Cowboys (-1.5) over Giants
Vikings (+6) over Packers
Colts (-3.5) over Chargers
Chiefs (-3) over Broncos
Rams (+11) over Saints
Browns (+10) over Steelers
Jaguars (+4) over Titans
Redskins (-3) over Eagles
Seahawks (-10) over 49ers
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 58-64-7
Lions (+1) over Cardinals
Bengals (+3.5) over Ravens
Bills (-3) over Dolphins
Falcons (+4) over Panthers
Bears (-3.5) over Raiders
Cowboys (-1.5) over Giants
Vikings (+6) over Packers
Colts (-3.5) over Chargers
Chiefs (-3) over Broncos
Rams (+11) over Saints
Browns (+10) over Steelers
Jaguars (+4) over Titans
Redskins (-3) over Eagles
Seahawks (-10) over 49ers
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 58-64-7
Friday, November 02, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 9
Sorry, been a hectic week... just my picks this week, as I continue with the drive to .500.
49ers (+3.5) over Falcons
Bengals (-1) over Bills
Browns (-1.5) over Seahawks
Eagles (+3.5) over Cowboys
Broncos (+3) over Lions
Packers (+2) over Chiefs
Patriots (-5) over Colts
Jaguars (+3) over Saints
Texans (+3) over Raiders
Vikings (+7) over Chargers
Bucs (-3.5) over Cardinals
Panthers (+4) over Titans
Redskins (-3.5) over Jets
Ravens (+9) over Steelers
Last Week: 7-5
Season: 53-55-7
49ers (+3.5) over Falcons
Bengals (-1) over Bills
Browns (-1.5) over Seahawks
Eagles (+3.5) over Cowboys
Broncos (+3) over Lions
Packers (+2) over Chiefs
Patriots (-5) over Colts
Jaguars (+3) over Saints
Texans (+3) over Raiders
Vikings (+7) over Chargers
Bucs (-3.5) over Cardinals
Panthers (+4) over Titans
Redskins (-3.5) over Jets
Ravens (+9) over Steelers
Last Week: 7-5
Season: 53-55-7
Thursday, October 25, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 8
After getting back to .500 last week, I struggled again, dropping me back under the .500. I'll just give my quick picks, because I also want to comment on the Boston College game tonight, and I don't have time for explanations!
Bears (-5) over Lions
Browns (-3) over Rams
Colts (-6.5) over Panthers
Patriots (-16.5) over Redskins
Saints (-3) over 49ers
Bills (+3) over Jets
Dolphins (+9.5) over Giants
Vikings (+1) over Eagles
Bengals (+3.5) over Steelers
Bucs (-4) over Jaguars
Raiders (+7.5) over Titans
Broncos (-3) over Packers
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 46-50-7
Bears (-5) over Lions
Browns (-3) over Rams
Colts (-6.5) over Panthers
Patriots (-16.5) over Redskins
Saints (-3) over 49ers
Bills (+3) over Jets
Dolphins (+9.5) over Giants
Vikings (+1) over Eagles
Bengals (+3.5) over Steelers
Bucs (-4) over Jaguars
Raiders (+7.5) over Titans
Broncos (-3) over Packers
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 46-50-7
Thursday, October 18, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 7
The drive for .500 continues! I actually had a really solid week last week, so hopefully I can continue with that momentum.
Ravens (-3) over Bills
I'm not huge on the Ravens, but the Bills have not been all that impressive. Trent Edwards will get the start again, and rookie QBs generally don't fare too well against good defenses.
Jets (+6.5) over Bengals
The Bungles are a bit of a mess right now... with Chad Pennington playing for his job, I think they'll have enough to cover.
Vikings (+9.5) over Cowboys
Of course I'm taking the Vikings here... That Adrian Peterson guy is pretty good. The Vikings offense has started to turn a little bit, as the passing game looked solid last week (even if the numbers don't exactly bear it out).
Bucs (+2) over Lions
The last time we saw the Lions, they got absolutely walloped by the Redskins... now they're 2 point favorites against Tampa? Nah don't like that. The Bucs are solid defensively, and they take care of the ball offensively. That's half the battle.
Patriots (-16.5) over Dolphins
As I have said in previous weeks, I am going to keep taking the Patriots until they prove that I shouldn't. They have some talent.
Saints (-9) over Falcons
The Falcons suck, but the Saints had one big week and all of a sudden they're 9 point favorites? Hmmm. For that reason I tried talking myself into taking the Falcons and the points, but I just can't. Word is that Byron Leftwich will be starting this week... I'm sorry, but I just can't see that ending well.
Giants (-9) over 49ers
The Giants have looked extremely potent offensively this year, while the Niners have looked extremely terrible offensively, especially with Trent Dilfer at the helm. The Giants look like the easy choice, but we'll see.
Chiefs (+2.5) over Raiders
Still not sold on the Raiders because I'm not sure that they can actually pass the ball. They are 29th in the NFL in passing YPG. Larry Johnson appears to be getting on track more (though maybe that was just because they played the Bengals?)... I'll take the Chiefs.
Bears (+5.5) over Eagles
I'm really not sure what to think here... two teams that seem to have underachieved a bit (though the Bears have been badly hurt by some injuries defensively). I'll take the Bears here, but I'm not real confident.
Steelers (-3.5) over Broncos
The Broncos have been a bit of a trainwreck, and Javon Walker will again be out. I see them struggling to move the ball consistently against a stout Pittsburgh defense.
Rams (+8.5) over Seahawks
Bulger's back, which should help out the Rams offense some. Of course, it really can't get any worse. Plus, the Seahawks haven't looked all that impressive thus far. I'll take the Rams to cover.
Texans (+1.5) over Titans
I have some concerns about Vince Young... if he's not fully healthy and full able to use his running abilities, he is simply not that good right now as a pocket passer. The Titans will have lots of problems running the football, but I'll take them here.
Redskins (-8.5) over Cardinals
Tim Rattay is the Cardinals QB. I rest my case.
Colts (-3) over Jaguars
This is a tough one because it is in Jacksonville and because the Jags typically play the Colts better than anyone else (with the Patriots being the obvious exception)... still, I like the Colts to win, and 3 points is too little of a spread to take the Jags.
Last Week: 8-3-2
Season: 41-41-7
Ravens (-3) over Bills
I'm not huge on the Ravens, but the Bills have not been all that impressive. Trent Edwards will get the start again, and rookie QBs generally don't fare too well against good defenses.
Jets (+6.5) over Bengals
The Bungles are a bit of a mess right now... with Chad Pennington playing for his job, I think they'll have enough to cover.
Vikings (+9.5) over Cowboys
Of course I'm taking the Vikings here... That Adrian Peterson guy is pretty good. The Vikings offense has started to turn a little bit, as the passing game looked solid last week (even if the numbers don't exactly bear it out).
Bucs (+2) over Lions
The last time we saw the Lions, they got absolutely walloped by the Redskins... now they're 2 point favorites against Tampa? Nah don't like that. The Bucs are solid defensively, and they take care of the ball offensively. That's half the battle.
Patriots (-16.5) over Dolphins
As I have said in previous weeks, I am going to keep taking the Patriots until they prove that I shouldn't. They have some talent.
Saints (-9) over Falcons
The Falcons suck, but the Saints had one big week and all of a sudden they're 9 point favorites? Hmmm. For that reason I tried talking myself into taking the Falcons and the points, but I just can't. Word is that Byron Leftwich will be starting this week... I'm sorry, but I just can't see that ending well.
Giants (-9) over 49ers
The Giants have looked extremely potent offensively this year, while the Niners have looked extremely terrible offensively, especially with Trent Dilfer at the helm. The Giants look like the easy choice, but we'll see.
Chiefs (+2.5) over Raiders
Still not sold on the Raiders because I'm not sure that they can actually pass the ball. They are 29th in the NFL in passing YPG. Larry Johnson appears to be getting on track more (though maybe that was just because they played the Bengals?)... I'll take the Chiefs.
Bears (+5.5) over Eagles
I'm really not sure what to think here... two teams that seem to have underachieved a bit (though the Bears have been badly hurt by some injuries defensively). I'll take the Bears here, but I'm not real confident.
Steelers (-3.5) over Broncos
The Broncos have been a bit of a trainwreck, and Javon Walker will again be out. I see them struggling to move the ball consistently against a stout Pittsburgh defense.
Rams (+8.5) over Seahawks
Bulger's back, which should help out the Rams offense some. Of course, it really can't get any worse. Plus, the Seahawks haven't looked all that impressive thus far. I'll take the Rams to cover.
Texans (+1.5) over Titans
I have some concerns about Vince Young... if he's not fully healthy and full able to use his running abilities, he is simply not that good right now as a pocket passer. The Titans will have lots of problems running the football, but I'll take them here.
Redskins (-8.5) over Cardinals
Tim Rattay is the Cardinals QB. I rest my case.
Colts (-3) over Jaguars
This is a tough one because it is in Jacksonville and because the Jags typically play the Colts better than anyone else (with the Patriots being the obvious exception)... still, I like the Colts to win, and 3 points is too little of a spread to take the Jags.
Last Week: 8-3-2
Season: 41-41-7
Friday, October 12, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 6
My drive for .500 continues... just my quick picks this week:
Cardinals (-4) over Panthers
Rams (+9.5) over Ravens
Vikings (+5) over Bears
Chiefs (+3) over Bengals
Browns (-4.5) over Dolphins
Redskins (+3) over Packers
Texans (+6.5) over Jaguars
Patriots (-5.5) over Cowboys
Eagles (-3) over Jets
Chargers (-9.5) over Raiders
Saints (+6.5) over Seahawks
Titans (+3) over Bucs
Giants (-3.5) over Falcons
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 33-38-5
Cardinals (-4) over Panthers
Rams (+9.5) over Ravens
Vikings (+5) over Bears
Chiefs (+3) over Bengals
Browns (-4.5) over Dolphins
Redskins (+3) over Packers
Texans (+6.5) over Jaguars
Patriots (-5.5) over Cowboys
Eagles (-3) over Jets
Chargers (-9.5) over Raiders
Saints (+6.5) over Seahawks
Titans (+3) over Bucs
Giants (-3.5) over Falcons
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 33-38-5
Thursday, October 04, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 5
The drive to .500 continues!
Cardinals (-3.5) over Rams
I have some grave doubts about how a dual QB system will work in the long-term, but for the short-term the Cardinals are clearly a better team for it. Give Kurt Warner time and he's still in the top half of QBs in the NFL. Who'da thunk it?
49ers (+3.5) over Ravens
Sorry, just not sold on this Ravens team. Also, just in case it hasn't been said, I really think they should be starting Kyle Boller instead of McNair, even when McNair is completely healthy. It's time.
Chargers (+1.5) over Broncos
A team as talented as the Chargers can't start the season 1-4, right? Right? Not even Norv Turner is this bad. At least that's what I'm telling myself.
Packers (-3) over Bears
The Bears have about half their defense out with injuries, their running game is ineffective, and there are rumors that they might be thinking about switching to their 3rd QB sometime in the relatively near future. Other than that, everything is great for the Bears.
Dolphins (+5.5) over Texans
Just a feeling. I don't like the Texans with the spread this large.
Bucs (+10) over Colts
There's a chance any or all of Bob Sanders, Marvin Harrison, and Joseph Addai could be missing this game due to injury. Even if they're not, the Bucs have a very solid defense, and an efficient offense. I don't think they'll be beating the Colts, but I think they can keep this a competitive game.
Chiefs (+2) over Jaguars
Coming into the year, I assumed the Chiefs would be a terrible team. Now I'm not so sure they can't be competitive in a suddenly mediocre AFC West. Damon Huard isn't terrible, and he has two really good targets in Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe (who has looked awesome). Larry Johnson's numbers are down, but this is in part due to the fact that they've played some teams that are good against the run. Don't sleep on the Chiefs.
Patriots (-16.5) over Browns
I'm still picking the Patriots to cover every week until they prove that this is not smart. I mean seriously, they've been KILLING teams.
Saints (-3) over Panthers
The Saints in a must-win game early in the year. David Carr is starting for the Panthers. Yes, I'll take New Orleans.
Giants (-3.5) over Jets
Honestly, I don't have the slightest clue. I'm not even going to try and pretend I do.
Seahawks (+5.5) over Steelers
I've been a big fan of the Steelers all year, but I think the Seahawks are a pretty decent team as well. I know it's in Pittsburgh, but the spread seems a little high.
Falcons (+8.5) over Titans
Don't look now, but I'm not so sure the Falcons are that bad of a football team. Joey Harrington can be a decent QB (really), and they have a solid RB duo to provide some offense balance. I know Andre Johnson was hurt, but it was an impressive win last week against Houston. I like them to cover against the Titans, who are a solid but I think a wee bit overrated.
Lions (+3.5) over Redskins
The Lions impressed me last week. I know I bashed the Bears a little in here, and they are banged up defensively, but 24 4th quarter points? That's impressive. That said, I am starting Jason Campbell in multiple fantasy leagues this week... that Lions secondary is awful.
Cowboys (-10) over Bills
No one has stopped the Cowboys yet. The spread and the fact that it's in Buffalo makes me a bit weary, but I'll stick with Dallas here.
What are your picks? Or where do you differ from me?
Cardinals (-3.5) over Rams
I have some grave doubts about how a dual QB system will work in the long-term, but for the short-term the Cardinals are clearly a better team for it. Give Kurt Warner time and he's still in the top half of QBs in the NFL. Who'da thunk it?
49ers (+3.5) over Ravens
Sorry, just not sold on this Ravens team. Also, just in case it hasn't been said, I really think they should be starting Kyle Boller instead of McNair, even when McNair is completely healthy. It's time.
Chargers (+1.5) over Broncos
A team as talented as the Chargers can't start the season 1-4, right? Right? Not even Norv Turner is this bad. At least that's what I'm telling myself.
Packers (-3) over Bears
The Bears have about half their defense out with injuries, their running game is ineffective, and there are rumors that they might be thinking about switching to their 3rd QB sometime in the relatively near future. Other than that, everything is great for the Bears.
Dolphins (+5.5) over Texans
Just a feeling. I don't like the Texans with the spread this large.
Bucs (+10) over Colts
There's a chance any or all of Bob Sanders, Marvin Harrison, and Joseph Addai could be missing this game due to injury. Even if they're not, the Bucs have a very solid defense, and an efficient offense. I don't think they'll be beating the Colts, but I think they can keep this a competitive game.
Chiefs (+2) over Jaguars
Coming into the year, I assumed the Chiefs would be a terrible team. Now I'm not so sure they can't be competitive in a suddenly mediocre AFC West. Damon Huard isn't terrible, and he has two really good targets in Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe (who has looked awesome). Larry Johnson's numbers are down, but this is in part due to the fact that they've played some teams that are good against the run. Don't sleep on the Chiefs.
Patriots (-16.5) over Browns
I'm still picking the Patriots to cover every week until they prove that this is not smart. I mean seriously, they've been KILLING teams.
Saints (-3) over Panthers
The Saints in a must-win game early in the year. David Carr is starting for the Panthers. Yes, I'll take New Orleans.
Giants (-3.5) over Jets
Honestly, I don't have the slightest clue. I'm not even going to try and pretend I do.
Seahawks (+5.5) over Steelers
I've been a big fan of the Steelers all year, but I think the Seahawks are a pretty decent team as well. I know it's in Pittsburgh, but the spread seems a little high.
Falcons (+8.5) over Titans
Don't look now, but I'm not so sure the Falcons are that bad of a football team. Joey Harrington can be a decent QB (really), and they have a solid RB duo to provide some offense balance. I know Andre Johnson was hurt, but it was an impressive win last week against Houston. I like them to cover against the Titans, who are a solid but I think a wee bit overrated.
Lions (+3.5) over Redskins
The Lions impressed me last week. I know I bashed the Bears a little in here, and they are banged up defensively, but 24 4th quarter points? That's impressive. That said, I am starting Jason Campbell in multiple fantasy leagues this week... that Lions secondary is awful.
Cowboys (-10) over Bills
No one has stopped the Cowboys yet. The spread and the fact that it's in Buffalo makes me a bit weary, but I'll stick with Dallas here.
What are your picks? Or where do you differ from me?
Thursday, September 27, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 4
I'm back for more embarrassment... my picks. Thoughts for all games hopefully will follow sometime Friday... no time right now! That's what school does to you, I suppose. My drive for .500 continues.
Ravens (-4) over Browns
Bucs (+3) over Panthers
Bears (-3) over Lions
A competent QB does wonders.
Rams (+13) over Cowboys
At this point in the NFL season, I'm not picking anyone except the Patriots with a spread this large.
Vikings (+1.5) over Packers
Got to stick with my boys. Kelly Holcomb looks like he will start again, and he should be more comfortable in the offense in his 2nd week.
Falcons (+3) over Texans
Broncos (+9.5) over Colts
Raiders (+4) over Dolphins
Jets (-3.5) over Bills
Eagles (-3) over Giants
Cardinals (+6) over Steelers
Chiefs (+11.5) over Chargers
See: not about the Cowboys/Rams game.
Seahawks (-2) over 49ers
Patriots (-7) over Bengals
The Pats seem to be just too good for everyone else right now.
Last Week: 5-8-3
Season: 20-23-5
Ravens (-4) over Browns
Bucs (+3) over Panthers
Bears (-3) over Lions
A competent QB does wonders.
Rams (+13) over Cowboys
At this point in the NFL season, I'm not picking anyone except the Patriots with a spread this large.
Vikings (+1.5) over Packers
Got to stick with my boys. Kelly Holcomb looks like he will start again, and he should be more comfortable in the offense in his 2nd week.
Falcons (+3) over Texans
Broncos (+9.5) over Colts
Raiders (+4) over Dolphins
Jets (-3.5) over Bills
Eagles (-3) over Giants
Cardinals (+6) over Steelers
Chiefs (+11.5) over Chargers
See: not about the Cowboys/Rams game.
Seahawks (-2) over 49ers
Patriots (-7) over Bengals
The Pats seem to be just too good for everyone else right now.
Last Week: 5-8-3
Season: 20-23-5
Thursday, September 20, 2007
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 3
I'm hovering around the .500 mark... that's my goal for this year, but I wouldn't mind at least getting some type of cushion. Anyway, week 3 picks.
Cardinals (+8) over Ravens
I just don't trust the Ravens offense enough to cover an 8-point spread right now. I mean, they only scored 20 against the Bengals, and they tried to give the game to the Jets last week. I like them to win, but probably not cover.
Panthers (-3.5) over Falcons
I have a really hard time picking Panthers games... they're just so inconsistent from week to week. So this reflects more on my feelings about the Falcons rather than the Panthers.
Redskins (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants suck. That's about all that there is to it. Their defense has been terrible, Eli isn't quite 100%, and their starting RB is hurt. Other than that, they've had a great start to the year.
Rams (+3.5) over Bucs
I came into the season really thinking the Rams were going to be a solid team, and they've obviously been very disappointing. Things might be even tougher without Orlando Pace, but I'll put my faith in them for one more week.
Bengals (+3.5) over Seahawks
We all know about the defensive problems the Bengals had this week, but the Seahawks haven't exactly been tearing it up offensively thus far. I mean, the Cardinals held them to 20 points. I just think the Bengals offensive will be a little too explosive.
Chargers (-5) over Packers
Brett Favre has played well so far, but let's see how he does against a good defense. I'm still a bit skeptical about the Packers offense. Things won't get too much easier for LDT going against a good Packer defense, but he shouldn't be bottled up quite as much as in the past 2 weeks.
49ers (+9) over Steelers
I've been as big of a fan as anyone of the Steelers so far, but 9 points is a large spread against a solid 49ers team is a lot. I like the Steelers to win this game, but I think the Niners are solid enough on both sides of the ball to keep things interesting.
Lions (+6) over Eagles
I like the Eagles in this one, but they are banged up a bit defensively, and McNabb has been pretty atrocious thus far. The Lions played atrociously last week, but a lot of that had to do with JT O'Sullivan playing almost a full half, and he was awful. If Kitna is healthy, I'll take the Lions to cover.
Raiders (-3) Browns
A rejuvenated LaMont Jordan should have a big game against the hapless Browns defense. I just hope that I don't have to watch this game.
Jets (-3) over Dolphins
I have absolutely no idea what to think of this game. So I'll take the home team.
Patriots (-16.5) over Bills
The spread is a little large, but with the performance of the Patriots over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to argue. And it's hard to argue picking against them, especially with how poorly JP Losman has played thus far.
Vikings (+3) over Chiefs
Kelly Holcomb looks like he'll be the starter this week for the Vikings... that is probably good news, short term. Larry Johnson won't find many holes to run against in this Vikings defense.
Colts (-6) over Texans
The Texans have been very impressive so far, but they will be without Andre Johnson this week. That should cause some problems for Matt Schaub.
Broncos (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars are the other team that I hate picking their games... I just don't know what is going to happen with them week-to-week. I assume we'll see a heavy dose of MJD and Fred Taylor (especially against the Broncos real good pair of corners), but who knows. Not me. I'll take the Broncos and hope they don't burn me for the 3rd straight week.
Cowboys (+3) over Bears
Not real confident about this one, especially since it is in the Windy City. But the Bears have 1 offensive TD in 2 games, and that came on a pass to a backup O-Lineman. Hope the Bears D/ST can score enough to keep up with the Cowboys.
Saints (-4) over Titans
If Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and the rest of the Saints offense struggles for the 3rd straight week, it might officially be time for fantasy owners everywhere to worry.
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 15-15-2
Cardinals (+8) over Ravens
I just don't trust the Ravens offense enough to cover an 8-point spread right now. I mean, they only scored 20 against the Bengals, and they tried to give the game to the Jets last week. I like them to win, but probably not cover.
Panthers (-3.5) over Falcons
I have a really hard time picking Panthers games... they're just so inconsistent from week to week. So this reflects more on my feelings about the Falcons rather than the Panthers.
Redskins (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants suck. That's about all that there is to it. Their defense has been terrible, Eli isn't quite 100%, and their starting RB is hurt. Other than that, they've had a great start to the year.
Rams (+3.5) over Bucs
I came into the season really thinking the Rams were going to be a solid team, and they've obviously been very disappointing. Things might be even tougher without Orlando Pace, but I'll put my faith in them for one more week.
Bengals (+3.5) over Seahawks
We all know about the defensive problems the Bengals had this week, but the Seahawks haven't exactly been tearing it up offensively thus far. I mean, the Cardinals held them to 20 points. I just think the Bengals offensive will be a little too explosive.
Chargers (-5) over Packers
Brett Favre has played well so far, but let's see how he does against a good defense. I'm still a bit skeptical about the Packers offense. Things won't get too much easier for LDT going against a good Packer defense, but he shouldn't be bottled up quite as much as in the past 2 weeks.
49ers (+9) over Steelers
I've been as big of a fan as anyone of the Steelers so far, but 9 points is a large spread against a solid 49ers team is a lot. I like the Steelers to win this game, but I think the Niners are solid enough on both sides of the ball to keep things interesting.
Lions (+6) over Eagles
I like the Eagles in this one, but they are banged up a bit defensively, and McNabb has been pretty atrocious thus far. The Lions played atrociously last week, but a lot of that had to do with JT O'Sullivan playing almost a full half, and he was awful. If Kitna is healthy, I'll take the Lions to cover.
Raiders (-3) Browns
A rejuvenated LaMont Jordan should have a big game against the hapless Browns defense. I just hope that I don't have to watch this game.
Jets (-3) over Dolphins
I have absolutely no idea what to think of this game. So I'll take the home team.
Patriots (-16.5) over Bills
The spread is a little large, but with the performance of the Patriots over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to argue. And it's hard to argue picking against them, especially with how poorly JP Losman has played thus far.
Vikings (+3) over Chiefs
Kelly Holcomb looks like he'll be the starter this week for the Vikings... that is probably good news, short term. Larry Johnson won't find many holes to run against in this Vikings defense.
Colts (-6) over Texans
The Texans have been very impressive so far, but they will be without Andre Johnson this week. That should cause some problems for Matt Schaub.
Broncos (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars are the other team that I hate picking their games... I just don't know what is going to happen with them week-to-week. I assume we'll see a heavy dose of MJD and Fred Taylor (especially against the Broncos real good pair of corners), but who knows. Not me. I'll take the Broncos and hope they don't burn me for the 3rd straight week.
Cowboys (+3) over Bears
Not real confident about this one, especially since it is in the Windy City. But the Bears have 1 offensive TD in 2 games, and that came on a pass to a backup O-Lineman. Hope the Bears D/ST can score enough to keep up with the Cowboys.
Saints (-4) over Titans
If Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and the rest of the Saints offense struggles for the 3rd straight week, it might officially be time for fantasy owners everywhere to worry.
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 15-15-2
Thursday, September 13, 2007
NFL PIcks Against the Spread 2007: Week 2
Time for my week 2 picks! Yay!
Jets (+10) over Ravens
Look, the Jets are not that great, but they're not as bad as they showed last week. The Ravens are good, but I just don't see them as 10 point favorites. Plus, I'm one of the guys that thinks the Jets will be better with Kellen Clemens at QB. I still like the Ravens to win, but I think it'll be decently close.
Texans +6.5) over Panthers
I kinda like what the Texans are doing. I don't know why, but I like them in this game, very possibly to win it. Part of it is that I'm not a big believer in Jake Delhomme... he was great last week, but I'm a bit skeptical we'll see a repeat.
Bears (-12.5) over Chiefs
If the Bears somehow find a way to lose this game outright, it might knock out absolutely everyone that plays any type of Survival Football. That's not even a joke. Every game would end because everyone would be eliminated.
Bengals (-6.5) over Browns
The Browns QB options are Derek Anderson (career: 6 TD, 9 INT) and Brady Quinn, a rookie who got into camp way late. They have a lame duck coach, a bad defense, and a past-his-prime RB. Other than that, things are going great for the Browns.
Cowboys (-3.5) over Dolphins
I don't care how bad the Cowboys defense looked last week, I don't see the Dolphins scoring enough points to keep up with them. I don't see the Dolphins scoring enough points to keep up with most teams.
Broncos (-10) over Raiders
I really don't know what to think in this game. I thought the Broncos were sure bets to beat the spread last week against Buffalo, and we know how that turned out. The Lions had some success running the ball against Oakland last week, and if Detroit had success, I can only imagine what the Broncos will do.
Vikings (+3) over Lions
If the Vikings can get pressure on Jon Kitna, I think he'll make some mistakes. If last week is any indication, the Vikings will be coming after the QB a little, which could leave them susceptible to some big plays, but I think they'll get to Kitna enough. Plus, Adrian Peterson should have another big day.
Colts (-7) over Titans
The Titans have a shot because they are sneakily good at running the football, but the way that I saw the Colts play last week leads me to believe they'll win by double digits. Peyton Manning might very well be a machine.
Falcons (+10) over Jaguars
I don't think the Falcons are as bad as they looked. Seriously. Harrington will play better with more time in the system, and their running backs are solid (the Minnesota run defense is just awesome). Plus, the Jags seem to always play down to the level of their opponents.
Patriots (-3.5) over Chargers
This is another game that I really don't know what to think. Both teams are among the 3 best in the NFL. I think the Patriots will win, so that's why I'm taking them with the points. But really, I have no idea.
Saints (-3.5) over Bucs
I just think the Saints are a much better team than the Bucs. Simple as that. Drew Brees will not play that poorly again.
Packers (+1.5) over Giants
The Giants have an injured QB that may or may not play, their starting RB is injured, they hate their coach, and their defense is atrocious. Other than that I love them this year.
Bills (+9.5) over Steelers
I like the Steelers, but the Bills showed last week they're a pretty darn good football team. Losman needs to play a lot better, but they're solid defensively, solid on special teams, and Marshawn Lynch had a great debut. I think they'll keep this one fairly close.
Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals
Not that the Seahawks lit up the world in week 1, but the Cardinals were very unimpressive. Although it was good that they got the running game going. With the run-oriented Ken Whisenhunt at the helm, I am kinda glad that I didn't really take Matt Leinart, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin in any of my fantasy leagues.
Rams (-3) over 49ers
I came into the year very optimistic about the Rams, and they sure sucked last week. Now, there's news that Orlando Pace is done for the year. So why am I picking them? Probably foolishness.
Redskins (+6.5) over Eagles
This is obvious, but I really did not like what I saw from the Eagles last week. No commitment to the run game, and McNabb did not play well. On the bright side, their special teams almost literally cannot get any worse. I expect them to beat Washington, but I think it'll be a tight contest.
Last Week: 8-6-2
Jets (+10) over Ravens
Look, the Jets are not that great, but they're not as bad as they showed last week. The Ravens are good, but I just don't see them as 10 point favorites. Plus, I'm one of the guys that thinks the Jets will be better with Kellen Clemens at QB. I still like the Ravens to win, but I think it'll be decently close.
Texans +6.5) over Panthers
I kinda like what the Texans are doing. I don't know why, but I like them in this game, very possibly to win it. Part of it is that I'm not a big believer in Jake Delhomme... he was great last week, but I'm a bit skeptical we'll see a repeat.
Bears (-12.5) over Chiefs
If the Bears somehow find a way to lose this game outright, it might knock out absolutely everyone that plays any type of Survival Football. That's not even a joke. Every game would end because everyone would be eliminated.
Bengals (-6.5) over Browns
The Browns QB options are Derek Anderson (career: 6 TD, 9 INT) and Brady Quinn, a rookie who got into camp way late. They have a lame duck coach, a bad defense, and a past-his-prime RB. Other than that, things are going great for the Browns.
Cowboys (-3.5) over Dolphins
I don't care how bad the Cowboys defense looked last week, I don't see the Dolphins scoring enough points to keep up with them. I don't see the Dolphins scoring enough points to keep up with most teams.
Broncos (-10) over Raiders
I really don't know what to think in this game. I thought the Broncos were sure bets to beat the spread last week against Buffalo, and we know how that turned out. The Lions had some success running the ball against Oakland last week, and if Detroit had success, I can only imagine what the Broncos will do.
Vikings (+3) over Lions
If the Vikings can get pressure on Jon Kitna, I think he'll make some mistakes. If last week is any indication, the Vikings will be coming after the QB a little, which could leave them susceptible to some big plays, but I think they'll get to Kitna enough. Plus, Adrian Peterson should have another big day.
Colts (-7) over Titans
The Titans have a shot because they are sneakily good at running the football, but the way that I saw the Colts play last week leads me to believe they'll win by double digits. Peyton Manning might very well be a machine.
Falcons (+10) over Jaguars
I don't think the Falcons are as bad as they looked. Seriously. Harrington will play better with more time in the system, and their running backs are solid (the Minnesota run defense is just awesome). Plus, the Jags seem to always play down to the level of their opponents.
Patriots (-3.5) over Chargers
This is another game that I really don't know what to think. Both teams are among the 3 best in the NFL. I think the Patriots will win, so that's why I'm taking them with the points. But really, I have no idea.
Saints (-3.5) over BucsI just think the Saints are a much better team than the Bucs. Simple as that. Drew Brees will not play that poorly again.
Packers (+1.5) over Giants
The Giants have an injured QB that may or may not play, their starting RB is injured, they hate their coach, and their defense is atrocious. Other than that I love them this year.
Bills (+9.5) over Steelers
I like the Steelers, but the Bills showed last week they're a pretty darn good football team. Losman needs to play a lot better, but they're solid defensively, solid on special teams, and Marshawn Lynch had a great debut. I think they'll keep this one fairly close.
Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals
Not that the Seahawks lit up the world in week 1, but the Cardinals were very unimpressive. Although it was good that they got the running game going. With the run-oriented Ken Whisenhunt at the helm, I am kinda glad that I didn't really take Matt Leinart, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin in any of my fantasy leagues.
Rams (-3) over 49ers
I came into the year very optimistic about the Rams, and they sure sucked last week. Now, there's news that Orlando Pace is done for the year. So why am I picking them? Probably foolishness.
Redskins (+6.5) over Eagles
This is obvious, but I really did not like what I saw from the Eagles last week. No commitment to the run game, and McNabb did not play well. On the bright side, their special teams almost literally cannot get any worse. I expect them to beat Washington, but I think it'll be a tight contest.
Last Week: 8-6-2
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