NBA Playoffs Round Two Predictions

With the second round underway, some predictions:

Bulls over Hawks in 6 games
The Hawks won Game 1, but I think the Bulls are simply the better team. Derrick Rose is the best player in the series, and the Bulls are the better defensive team. When you have the best player and better defense, you're usually going to win.

Heat over Celtics in 5
Suddenly the Celtics are showing their age, and they seem to be lacking a true identity ever since they traded away Kendrick Perkins. The Heat are still not firing at all cylinders (maybe next year when they are more used to playing together), but they are easily playing well enough to win this series.

Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
The Grizzlies dominated game 1, but I am not sure they quite have the firepower to bea the Thunder 4 times. The interior defense of OKC is too good to get abused by Zach Randolph like that every game. The Grizz have solid perimeter defenders to slow down Kevin Durant, but he is too good to be contained.

Lakers over Mavericks in 7
Dallas was game 1 in LA, giving them an upper hand early. But I like the Lakers to win, as they are too good down low. Tyson Chandler is as good as they come defensively down low, but he needs to more help, and I am not sure he will get quite enough on the defensive end. Pau Gasol needs to be huge in this series, and I think he can.

NBA First Round Playoff Predictions

The playoffs are once again among us... some predictions for the first round.

EAST

1 Chicago over 8 Indiana in 4 games
The Bulls are the more complete, talented team. They are better offensively and defensively. This should be the least interesting series in round 1.

2 Miami over 7 Philadelphia in 5 games
As much as I want to see the 76ers pull one out, it is not going to happen. They don't have the firepower to hang with the star-studded Heat. Iggy can only guard LeBron or Wade.

3 Boston over 6 New York in 7 games
The Celtics come limping into the playoffs, trying to find an identity again after the Kendrick Perkins trade. Funny things can happen when the Knicks get into the playoffs... Game 7 in Boston, though, gives them the advantage.

4 Orlando over 5 Atlanta in 6 games
I'm not sold on the Magic as legitimate contenders, but I think they have the firepower to overtake the Hawks.


WEST

1 San Antonio over 8 Memphis in 6 games
This is an intriguing game since people think the Spurs are a weak 1 and the Griz a strong 8, but reports of an upset have been greatly exaggerated. The Spurs still have the big 3, and Manu Ginobili will be the best player in this series.

2 Los Angeles over 7 New Orleans in 5 games
If David West were healthy, this might be an interesting series. As it is, I don't see the Lakers faltering, even as poor as they have played down the stretch.

6 Portland over 3 Dallas in 7 games
The upset of the first round, I like the more athletic Blazers to take down Dallas, even though Dirk is playing as well as anyone in the NBA. The Mavs need Tyson Chandler to be huge in this series, but I am not sure he is up to it.

4 Oklahoma City over 5 Denver in 6 games
It should be the most entertaining series in the first round, as both teams get out and run. The difference is that one of these teams have Kevin Durant, and one does not.

What are your predictions?

World Cup and NBA Finals

Like many people, I am not much of a soccer fan, but I do love the World Cup, which starts on Friday morning.

Perhaps the greatest sporting event in United States history is the Miracle on Ice in 1980. As I'm sure you remember, a team of U.S. Amateurs shocked the powerful Soviet Union team, going on to win the Olympic Gold Medal at Lake Placid.

Really, the World Cup is the best chance for something like that to ever be duplicated for the United States. It is our last popular sport in which we are extreme underdogs. If the USA were to win the World Cup, it would be even more shocking than the Miracle on Ice, indeed, the goal really is to get out of group play. It will be a fairly successful World Cup if that is all that we accomplish.

The United States is a team without an international star, hoping to get by on superior teammwork and unity. We won't win anything on talent alone (which is not to say that the talent level is terrible, it is not, but it is nowhere near other country powerhouses). It is very exciting... to root for your country in the biggest sporting even in the world, with the extra thrill of them being an underdog.

I wouldn't make any gambling deposits on them at a Moneybookers Casino, but it sure will be fun to watch them play and try to advance. They look as ready as they have been, as the team is playing well (second in the Confederations Cup last year), and Coach Bob Bradley has them playing as one unit.

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The Lakers have a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals after taking out Boston in a weird Game 3, and the series stays in Boston for games 4 and 5. Boston obviously needs a better effort from Ray Allen, who was as awful in Game 3 as he was brilliant in Game 2.

The bright spot for Boston was Kevin Garnett, who looked like he would provide very little in the series after games 1 and 2. However, he had a brilliant game 3, and put up numbers reminiscent of KG of old. If he can do that again this series, Boston should have a great chance, especially if Pierce and Allen step up.

If I was check out casino deposit options at something like the Roxy Palace Casino, my money would still be on the Lakers in this series. They have the best player in this series, and they might have the second best player as well (depending on whether you prefer Pau Gasol or Rajon Rondo.

It seems clear that home court does not matter that much anymore, as both teams have one on the opponents home court. This is a series that seems ready to go 7 games, and I'll take the Lakers at home in that one, giving Kobe a 5th title and firmly planting him as one of the 10 best players in NBA history.

All in all, it's a good time to be a sports fan!

NBA Conference Finals Thoughts

We are in the midst of two great conference finals matchups. In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic are knotted at 1 game apiece. In the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers lead the Denver Nuggets 2 games to 1.

First, a look at the East, which has been epic through 2 games. After Rashard Lewis won game 1 with a late 3-pointer, LeBron James answered with a buzzer beating 3 of his own, evening the series. Thoughts from this series:

- LeBron James, of course, has been ridiculously good. He is the best basketball player on the planet, and he's showing it through the first 2 games. After being almost unstoppable in game 1 (20/30 shooting? Are you serious?), he followed that up with 35 points and the aforementioned game-winner in game 2. With the defense focusing on him, he is shooting a high percentage, playing great defense, and getting good looks for his teammates.

- However, he can't do it on his own. In Game 21, Mo Williams had 19 points, but it took him 21 shots to do it. Delonte West only had 12 points in 46 minutes. Zydrunas Ilgauskas only had 12 points on 5/13 shooting. LeBron will get these guys lots of great looks, so they are going to need to hit shots.

- Dwight Howard needs to dominate for the Magic. The Cavaliers have nobody that can guard him (Zydrunas Ilgauskas is not even close to quick enough), so there is no reason for Howard to only have 10 points on 3/8 shooting. His average needs to be up in the 20s for the Magic to win this series.

- I love watching Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu play when they are firing at all cylinders. Great shooters, good handles, good passers... a fantastic wing combination.

- Courtney Lee is showing me some good offensive game a lot more quickly in his career than I thought he would.

- Still like the Cavs in this series... LeBron is simply too good. I'll go with Cavs in 6.

Then there is the West, where the Lakers victory on Saturday gave them a 2-1 series lead... all 3 games have been closely contested and have come down to the wire, where any of the games conceivably could have been won by either team. Thoughts:

- Kobe Bryant was a man in Game 3, carrying the Lakers down the stretch with 41 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 5 assists. Clutch 3 to put the Lakers up late and then lots of late free throws.

- Kenyon Martin with one of the worst inbounds passes I have seen to all but seal the fate of the Nuggets in game 3. Give credit to Lamar Odom for great defense on the ball out of bounds, but that was still an atrocious pass.

- Don't see how the Lakers can win an NBA title if they get as little contributions from their PGs as they did in game 23. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown basically added nothing to the table.

- Carmelo Anthony, where did you go in the 2nd half? With his disappearance and the struggle of JR Smith to score (he played well in other areas but didn't add much scoring the ball - 4/15 shooting), the Nuggets just didn't have enough offense.

- Well done Bird Man... 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks in 24 minutes. The man is an athletic specimen.

Hope you guys are enjoying these 2 series' as much as I am... it has been excellent so far, hope we can continue to have great basketball games!

Celtics Survive Game 2

Wow. First off, obviously I did not see the Celtics being up 2-0 coming. If I had bet on the NBA Finals, I would be in bad shape right now. Fortunately, I stick to just talking about the games. And after being a bit of a bore for most of the game, the Lakers made things interesting before succumbing the Boston. I was actually going to stop watching without about 8 minutes to go, but with the effort that the Lakers were still exerting (even down 24) I decided to stick around, and almost witnesses something awesome. Obviously I had no inkling that LA would eventually make it a 2 point game, but it goes to their credit that they continued to exert maximum effort. But the result of all of it is that Boston leads 2-0.

How have they done it? Well, obviously defense has been huge. Up until the 4th quarter of Game 2, they had frustrated Kobe Bryant just like they did in the regular season, and nobody else was really picking up the slack. But then again, we knew going on that the Celtics were the best defensive team in the NBA, and their help defense was great. The big reason that Boston is up 2-0 and in control of the series is because they have been so good offensively, which is what I did not expect.

Boston shot 53% in Game 2 and got to the foul line 38 times. Those are winning numbers. For as bad as they looked against Cleveland offensively, they have turned things around quite nicely. They are getting out and picking up the tempo (which we thought the Lakers would be doing), and Rondo is running the break like a seasoned pro. Rondo considers to be extraordinarily effective considering he does not have a jumpshot. 16 assists, 6 rebounds, and constant solid defense? That's more than enough to make up for only 4 points on 1-4 shooting.

The other big thing for the Celtics was the play of the bigs of the bench. Once again, PJ Brown was just solid. He knows his role and his game so well... hit open midrange jumpers, and always be in the right place defensively. He's been monumental for Boston. The reason Boston is so great defensively is because of their help defense, and Brown is the epitome of that. He's always in the right position to help on guys driving to the hoop, or to take charges. Then, of course, there is Leon Powe. His aggressiveness on the offensive end was big in the first half, when the Lakers jumped out to a quick start. Just taking a look at his numbers - 21 points in 15 minutes. Leon Powe might never play a better game in his life.

For the Lakers, they have to figure out how to slow Boston down, and to decrease the disparity in free throw attempts. As noted, Boston took 38 compared to LA's 10. It doesn't take a basketball mastermind to know that you're not going to win a lot of games with a 28 free throw attempt difference. The easy answer is to say that LA needs to be more aggressive and take it to the hoop more, but Boston's defense makes that a tough proposition.

Obviously I have to stick with my prediction of LA to win the series, but it goes without saying that Game 3 is a must-win for the Lakers. At home, with the momentum of a near comeback, they need to get out to a good start in game 3 and exert control over things in LA.

Just a final note, and I know that the refs not calling traveling is a bit of a running joke in the NBA, but come on, how do you not call that travel by Vladimir Radmanovic on the fast break dunk that cut the lead to 104-100? I actually really don't have a problem with them letting borderline travels go, but Vlad Rad's travel there was rather egregious, and on a fast break to boot. It definitely helped the entertainment factor that nothing was called, but he blatantly travelled on a fast break. Got to be called.

Final final note, but Jeff Van Gundy making fun of Mark Jackson for comparing Leon Powe to Dr. J was the highlight of the game for me in terms of the announcers. I had a good laugh. Bravo Jeff Van Gundy.

2008 NBA Finals Prediction

Time to give my prediction for the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers!

While both teams are pretty evenly matched, I like Los Angeles to win this series based on the matchup advantages they have. First, Boston has nobody really to match up with Kobe Bryant. Paul Pierce has done a very good job defensively this postseason, but he is simply not the player that Kobe Bryant is. Look for Bryant to exert himself, especially late and in close games, which is a huge edge in their favor. In so many of these closely-matched series', the team that has the best player wins, and Kobe Bryant is the best player in this series.

Up front, I think LA has the edge with their athleticism. While Kevin Garnett can match up well with either Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol, I think it will be much tougher for Kendrick Perkins to match up with them. They are both athletic big men that can get up and down the court. Plus, they are both skilled with the basketball, and I'm not sure how effective of a defender Perkins is 15 feet from the basket. I look for LA to exploit that.

Lastly, the Lakers have a huge coaching edge. Phil Jackson is one of the best coaches of all-time, looking for his NBA record 10th Title. Doc Rivers was on the chopping block as recently as the end of last season, as many Celtics fans openly pined for his firing. Look for Jackson to exploit the Lakers advantages. So I think the Lakers will be victorious in this game. I like the teams to split the first 2 in Boston, and the Lakers to take the next 3 at home.

Lakers in 5.

What's your pick?

NBA Conference Finals Predictions

We're down to the final four teams in the NBA playoffs, and we have some relatively power matchups. Let's cut out the pretext and just get to the predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

With Boston and Detroit, we have to the two teams that have been a cut above the rest of the conference all season long. Detroit, of course, are veterans at this Conference Finals thing, having been here for the last 5 seasons. Boston is coming off of a season in which they won 24 games and replaced 60% of their starters, so they're not quite so experienced with the Conference Finals. But no matter, as Boston is the favorite heading into the series.

But there has been a big development for Boston which makes them appear a lot more vulnerable than they looked in the regular season... Ray Allen got really old, really fast. He was a virtual non-factor against Cleveland, even sitting out for the majority of the 4th quarter of Game 7. He wasn't hitting shots, he wasn't getting open looks consistently, and he could not create his own shot. Without him, does Boston have the offense to get past Detroit? Especially with defensive stalwart Tayshaun Prince guarding Paul Pierce?

I do think the importance of Rajon Rondo will be magnified in this series. Against Cleveland, his defensive skills were not as important, because the Cavs obviously do not have a great offensive PG. However, Rondo will be asked to slow down Chauncey Billups, and his success or failure will be a large determinant of this series. As it stands, I'll go with the more talented Billups, and ergo, the Pistons. The Boston that I watched struggle to handle Cleveland does not have the offensive firepower to hang with Detroit.

PISTONS IN 6


WESTERN CONFERENCE

We have two legitimately great teams in this series, with the Lakers taking on the Spurs. The Lakers have been the most impressive team in the postseason so far, dispatching the Nuggets in 4 and the Jazz in 6. Meanwhile, the Spurs impressively beat Phoenix in 5 games before outlasting the Hornets in 7.

Both teams are extremely well-coached, fundamentally sound, and talented. That's usually means we should have a pretty nice series on our hands. I would guess that Bruce Bowen will start on Kobe Bryant, which will be the key matchup in the series. Though the Lakers certainly have other options on the floor, they still look to Kobe to get the offense going, both with his scoring and drawing of defenders.

When the Spurs have the ball, the key matchup will be how Derek Fisher guards Tony Parker. The Spurs obviously have Duncan and Ginobili, but the key to the offense is Tony Parker hitting his 18-footers. When Parker is hitting the jumpshot (predominately off of the pick & roll and kickouts from Duncan), the Spurs become very, very difficult to stop.

This should be a classic series between two great teams. In this case, I'll go with the proven commodity... seems like the Spurs are on a mission.

SPURS IN 7

What are your thoughts?

"With no regard for human life!"

Thank you Kevin Harlan. I love that PBP call.

Anyway, Cavs tied the series up 2-2. My first question... the Celtics won 66 games this year? Really? For the second straight game, Boston just looked absolutely abominable offensively, with no flow, and nobody stepping up and making shots. They shot just 38.6% for the game, and only 3/14 from downtown.

None of the big 3 look like they're able to take over a game offensively... KG is far too passive, Paul Pierce has struggled, and Ray Allen continues to be almost a non-factor in this series (other than 1 quarter in this game). The difference between those guys and LeBron is that even when LeBron isn't shooting well, he is still such an incredible passer that he gets tons of open looks for other guys. Boston's three stars don't do that. So while James was again awful shooting the ball, his 13 assists were enough to propel Cleveland into a series-tying victory.

This series should also have put to rest any doubt in the Kevin Garnett vs. Tim Duncan debate. Both great players, but Duncan is a different player in the playoffs and in the 4th quarter. I know the supporting casts over their careers have been vastly different, but change them up and I don't think Garnett would have 4 rings.

As we have seen in the playoffs, home court has been huge, and as Charles Barkley has been saying, things go from game to game... so it will be interesting to see if Boston can get some offensive flow again back in Boston.

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

With what should be a great playoff season just about upon us, it's time to prognosticate, undoubtedly ending in horrible shame at my ignorance. But that's ok.

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
It's going to be strange to see the Hawks back in the playoffs, although I don't foresee their stay being too lengthy. The Hawks have talent and athleticism, but they're no match for the Celtics. The Celtics should be able to smother the Hawks defensively, leading to a quick, decisive victory.
BOSTON IN 4

(2) Detroit Pistons vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are a great story and I'll be rooting for them, but it's difficult seeing them match up with the Pistons in a 7-game series. The Pistons are a bit too strong defensively and efficient offensively. The Sixers have played about as well as anyone over the past couple of months, but Detroit in the playoffs is a completely different animal.
DETROIT IN 5

(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Toronto Raptors
I like the Raptors in an upset pick. I'm not sure the Magic and their players are really familiar being in this position, as a favorite in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how they handle it. The Raptors don't really have anyone to match up with Dwight Howard, but then the Magic don't have a good matchup for Chris Bosh. This should be a highly entertaining series.
TORONTO IN 7

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Washington Wizards
These clubs will meet up for the 3rd straight season, but this year should be a lot better than last. Now that the Wizards are healthy, they're a very dangerous club capable of putting up lots of points on the board. Meanwhile, the Cavs have the best player in the world. In round 1, I think LeBron wills his team to victory... as long as the game is close at the end, LeBron will win it for the Cavs.
CLEVELAND IN 7

What are your thoughts on round 1 of the East?

Thursday Debate: Should the NBA Playoff Format be Changed?

We have a little thing on this blog I like to call Thursday Debate... I ask a question, give my opinion, and then see how everyone else feels about it. Today we have the most popular sports topic right now... should the NBA playoff format be changed?

As we suffer through the Cleveland/San Antonio series, which is taking place a couple of weeks after the peak of the postseason (the Phoenix/San Antonio series), I think it's very appropriate to ask the question: should the NBA playoff format be changed?

The common thought (and the thought of David Stern) (and to quote Bryan L.) is that changing things would be a long-term solution to a short-term problem. But is it really just a short-term problem?

The NBA has been dominated by the West for the past 10 years... the only 2 titles won by teams in the East since the 1998 Bulls were the Pistons in 2004 (over the self-destructing Lakers), and Dwyane Wade beating the Mavs last year. Other than that things have been dominated by the West.

And really, it seems to me that the balance of power won't be shifting for a while The East has LeBron and Wade, two of the brightest young stars in the NBA. They also have no power teams, an abnormal amount of bad GMs, and bad luck in the draft. The West has teams that look like they can reasonably compete for a title for the next few years (Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio), and the two best players coming into the league will be headed out West.

Or another way to put, from Bill Simmons (love him or hate him), who said the point more succinctly than I just did:

1. Once the league's reckless (repeat: reckless) expansion pushed the number of teams past the mid-20s, it became too easy for one conference to be stacked with elite teams. David Stern has argued multiple times that this stuff evens out over time, but clearly, that's not true. We've had much better teams in the West for nearly a full decade; in eight of the past 10 seasons, the best two teams played before the Finals, and in four of those seasons, they played before the conference finals. Um ... that's not a major flaw in the system?

We saw this imbalance from 1980 to 1989, when there were always 3-4 great teams in the East (the Celtics, Sixers and Bucks dominated the first half, then the Celtics, Pistons, Bulls, Hawks and Cavs took turns in the second half) and the Lakers whupped up a different underdog in the Western finals almost every year. But here was the big difference: Because the league hadn't killed itself with expansion and there were so many salary cap loopholes, the Lakers were always really good. They went nine-deep with two franchise players (Magic and Kareem), an All-Star (Worthy), great role players and a rotating cast of accomplished veterans passing through for a ring. Because such a great/memorable/entertaining team was carrying the West in the '80s, nobody cared that the conferences were unbalanced. Now? We care. We don't have Magic's Lakers to salvage things.

2. Once upon a time, the NBA created conferences to cut down on everyone's travel -- not just to save expenses but to save the bodies of its players (all of whom were flying coach). Even now, it's a reasonable strategy for the regular season. But for the playoffs? Not nearly as reasonable. Everyone's flying around in charter jets, for God's sake! If we adopted the 2-3-2 format for every playoff series -- which should happen, anyway -- travel time and days would be cut back. So you can't play the "too much traveling" card. Not in 2007.

3. There's a rigid predictability to the playoffs every spring that we don't necessarily need. For instance, one of the reasons the Mavs-Warriors series was so much fun was because it came out of nowhere. Shouldn't we be searching for that "what a goofy matchup!" variable every spring? Why do we want to subject ourselves to a solid decade of Cavs-Bulls or Cavs-Heat series in the East? Isn't the unpredictability and randomness part of what makes March Madness so great?

On the other hand, some people like tradition. I myself was in that boat for a long time, but after a string of the NBA Finals not coming close to matching the excitement from earlier rounds, I think it's time for a change. Tradition is nice, having the two best teams meet in the NBA Finals is even better.

What are your thoughts? If you were in charge, would you change the playoff format? And I'd love to hear in the comments what'd you would change it too?

Should the NBA Change its Playoff Format?
	Yes
	No

2001 NBA Finals, Game 1

Over the weekend on ESPN Classic they showed some good NBA Finals games. There was some interesting stuff, so I put a few of them on the DVR to watch because I thought it would be interesting to see all of these guys when they were younger. Other games I taped include the 1998 Bulls vs. Jazz Game 6 (MJ's last shot for Chicago), and a couple of Rockets games so I could watch some tape of Olajuwon in his prime.

But the first game I watched was Game 1 of the 2001 NBA Finals between the LA Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers, which the Sixers won 107-103 in OT. I figured I'd write about that game here because it was a lot more interesting than Game 2 of the 2007 NBA Finals, even if I did know what happened.

Also to note my biases, the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers might be my favorite team ever. I loved watching them play and that's a big reason I am a 76ers fan today. Some thoughts on the game:

- Here was the 76ers starting lineup: Allen Iverson, Aaron McKie, Jumaine Jones, Tyrone Hill, Dikembe Mutombo. Seriously, that was the starting lineup of an NBA Finals team (maybe why they lost 4-1). But that alone should give you an indication of just how great Allen Iverson was and is. Every night the defense had to know exactly who was getting the ball and who was getting the majority of the shots for Philly, and Iverson was still the MVP and led them to the Finals.

- By the way, Allen Iverson had 48 points in this game, including 7 in a row late in OT to clinch the game.

- Looking at the 76ers team, I got the feeling that this is the exact type of team that Kobe Bryant would like to play on today. Everyone was defensive minded and didn't care if they got shots... heck, Iverson shot 30+ times many times and everyone else just continued to play good defense and never force anything on offense.

- Watching Shaq play then, I don't think he gets enough credit for how athletic he is. People see him as the big, powerful guy on the post, and he is that, but in his prime he could get up and down the floor as well as any big man in the NBA. He was also a very solid passer and ballhandler.

- And for the record, Shaq had 44 points and 20 rebounds in this game against Dikembe Mutombo (more on him later). In that year's playoffs he averaged over 30 points and 15 rebounds per game. Wow.

- Interesting matchup of Raja Bell (who got his start in Philly) guarding Kobe Bryant whenever he was in the game. I forgot their history went back that far. And for the record, Bell did a very good job on Bryant even back then.

- About Dikembe Mutombo, there is no doubt that he was one of the most intimidating defenders at the rim ever. He was 35 years old at this time and past his prime, but one play stuck out to me. On one Lakers possession Horace Grant caught a pass and looked like he had an open layup. Instead, he paused, looked around for Mutombo (who was far under the hoop), but this pause was enough time for Mutombo to get over and block the shot. It was awesome.

- It was interesting watching Rick Fox play... he just seemed so very unathletic, but he was still a very effective player because he knew what his role was and he was always in the right position.

- Another reason I enjoyed this game... their was no flopping. That was refreshing.

- This has been said over and over, but the NBA on NBC was fantastic. Great music, great commentary (Marv Albert and Doug Collins), great camera work, great everything.

So the Lakers did go on to win the next 4 (and finish their 15-1 romp through the 2001 playoffs), but for one night at least Philly was king. What a game. If you're interested, the last minutes of it are on Youtube.

Do you remember this series at all?

Spurs win Game 1

As was pretty much expected, the Spurs won Game 1 fairly easily, dominating the 3rd quarter in route to an 86-75 win.

But while the Spurs win wasn't surprising, the complete nonfactor of LeBron James was a bit surprising. LeBron was only 4/16 from the field, scoring 14 points, grabbing 7 rebounds, and doling out 4 assists. While he probably won't struggle like this all series, I think this is going to be a major problem for the Cavs.

Game 5 notwithstanding, LeBron still isn't that great of a jump shooter. His offensive game is more predicated on getting to the rim, and he's just not able to do that too effectively against the Spurs, the best help defensive team in the NBA. Even if LeBron gets by the strong on-the-ball defense from Bowen or Ginobili, he'll still have Tim Duncan, Fransisco Oberto, Robert Horry, & Co. at the rim. That's hard.

One more note on the Cavs, and that's to say that Larry Hughes should not be starting, and at no time should be guarding Tony Parker. I'm not big on Hughes anyway, but with him being hobbled a bit Parker can drive by him at will, as he showed. The less Hughes plays, the more Gibson plays, the better. Gibson was outstanding in Game 1.

For the Spurs, it was the same story as usual. Aside from a stretch in the 2nd quarter they were efficient offensively and superb defensively. Tony Parker was the high point scorer and he did play a terrific game, but Tim Duncan was the MVP. The numbers were impressive... 24 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, but as is the case with Duncan the whole game was great. He was great in help defense at the rim, he didn't force things, and is always in the right position. Just a brilliant game from him.

This is how I think the series will go... both teams are strong defensively so the scoring will be low, but the Spurs are just too good and efficient to be beat in a 7 game series. I still believe LeBron will be good enough to get them a win or two, but beyond that, there's too much Tim Duncan and too much Tony Parker.

NBA Finals Predictions

First off, let me say that I think San Antonio is much better than anyone from the East. By the same token, I would say Dallas, Phoenix, and Utah were all better than any team from the East. But that doesn't mean this thing won't be competitive.

The reason I think this will be competitive is the same reason I was glad the Cavs won the last series, and that should be pretty obvious... LeBron James. He is simply the best, most dominating player in this series. As he showed in Game 5 against Detroit, he can win games by himself, something I don't think Detroit had.

Unfortunately, the Spurs have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best players in this series, as well as a much better coach and a more versatile team. They're also better defensively and more efficient offensively. The Spurs have every single edge in this series except one... they don't have LeBron James.

So how many wins is LeBron James good for? Well, if Daniel Gibson plays like he did in Game 6, maybe 4. But I don't think that will happen. I think James will be fantastic throughout, and that should be good for a couple of wins. Beyond that, I really just think the Spurs are too good. Too good defensively, too efficient offensively, too well-coached, and too experienced led by Tim Duncan. All in all, I'll take the SPURS IN 6.

What are your thoughts?

We are all witnesses

W-O-W

Cavs even the series

Some quick thoughts from Game 4:

- This is like deja vu for the Pistons. Last year, after game 2 of the 2nd round, their offense was kind of stagnant for the rest of the playoffs. This year, they dominated the first 2 games against Chicago, and then it was a struggle the rest of the series. Against Cleveland, they have really struggled all series, barely hanging onto the 2 games at home. Last year this all caught up with them in the conference finals, as Miami went on to win the series. This year, I kinda think the same thing will happen... I like Cleveland in 7.

- I am starting the think the Cavs are actually a better team without Larry Hughes (he only played 16 minutes because of injury). They're not as strong defensively without Hughes, but I think their offense is a little better.

- Where is the Chauncey Billups that was always the clutch performer at the end of games? To be blunt, he sucked at the end of this one. First the bad pass and foul, then the awful pull-up 3 on the fast break. Those were two killer plays.

- LeBron making a couple of clutch free throws! Yay!

- I'm not an NBA head coach, but I think Detroit should have at least tried to guard Drew Gooden in the corner. He killed them from there in the last few minutes of the 4th.

- More and more I think that whoever wins this series is going to get lambasted in the Finals... the only hope is if Cleveland wins and LeBron single-handedly makes things interesting. We'll see.

What are your thoughts on the game that was?

Stuff

With the weather getting nicer, admittedly I'm spending less and less time watching sports and more time, you know, outside doing stuff and enjoying the Memorial Day weekend. So I'll just post my thoughts on some different topics of sports conversation over the weekend.

- First, the Western Conference has been a lot better all year long, and the first 2 rounds of the playoffs were worlds more exciting in the West than the East, but I have found a little more interest in Pistons/Cavs than Jazz/Spurs. Utah and San Antonio is probably a little better played, but the other series has a guy named LeBron James. For all of the slacking LeBron has done this year, he has still turned it on for the playoffs and he's still the most exciting player to watch in the NBA.

- Just to clarify, the fact that LeBron can do things like this is a big reason why he's so great to watch.

- This doesn't even really need to be said, but if you're bored, just go to Fire Joe Morgan and read. Definitely one of the most consistently entertaining sites on the interwebs.

- As more and more evidence piles up against Mike Vick and his knowledge of the dogfighting ring, I hope Roger Goodell is proactive (like he was with Pac-Man Jones) and suspends Vick, even if the law hasn't filed charges yet or the case is still pending. I think he will, and I think that will be the right move.

- I took Roger Clemens in my fantasy baseball drafts at the start of the year with the expectations that he'd be back, so from that standpoint it was good to see that after two OK starts, he was very solid in his AAA start, tossing 6 scoreless innings. But don't get me wrong, the Yankees still suck a lot.

- For the record, of all of the Thursday Debates I've done, I still think the question about who is the 2nd best PG in the NBA is still the most intriguing one. I've still going with Chris Paul, but it's tough to argue with Pacifist Viking who likes Jason Kidd as the best PG in the NBA.

- Spurs lead the series 3-1... assuming their ticket is punched (and I don't see any way the Jazz will win 3 straight), here's hoping the Cavs join them in the Finals.

Conference Finals Predictions

The conference finals are here! It's safe to say that my predictions haven't exactly been wildly successful thus far, but, well, persistence is key.

Cavs vs. Pistons
This was a surprisingly close series last year, with the Cavs nearly beating Detroit in 6 before succumbing to the Pistons in 7 games. This year, I think both teams are a little better. LeBron James could stand to try a little harder all the time, but he's still the most gifted player athletically in the League. For Detroit, everything is flowing better. They are getting more ball movement, more everything offensively, and that is making them a better team. If LeBron becomes Superman like he can be during this series, the Cavs have a good shot at winning it. However, I think the Pistons learned something from letting the Bulls back into the last series. PISTONS IN 6.

Jazz vs. Spurs
Everyone seems to be giving this series to the Spurs, but the Jazz are pretty darn good too. They won Game 7 in Houston, then took care of Golden State in a surprisingly quick fashion. They've got great balance, solid defense, great rebounding, and Deron Williams is huge at the PG spot. I think the Jazz are the second best team left in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they're going up against the best team left. The Spurs were kinda my thought to win it all before the playoffs began, and I've seen absolutely nothing to change my mind. They score in a multitude of ways, and they are the best defensive team in the NBA. Utah will have enough to make it a very good series, but the Spurs are a little too good, I think. SPURS IN 6.

I Love TNT

I know this has basically been said ad nauseum, but it bears repeating... the NBA on TNT is awesome. It really it far, far superior to the NBA coverage on ESPN, or any sports coverage anywhere. Everything about the presentation is fantastic. The announcers themselves, the music, the postgame crew, even Craig Sager!

On Monday, they had Shaq in studio. I have to admit, I love the Big Aristotle. I know some don't like him that much, but I've always found him to be hilarious. Tonight, from what I watched of the studio guys (mostly postgame) he didn't add a ton, but it was still funny.

But that wasn't the only good thing. The nightcap (aside from being a great game) had Marv Albert and Steve Kerr announcing, simply the best announcing duo in the NBA. They are great. Working the sidelines was Craig Sager, who had some good stuff tonight. Here are a just a few quotes heard from just the end of the Spurs/Suns and the postgame show.

Craig Sager: "Robert Horry has made a lot of big shots over the course of his career, and some might call this a cheap shot."
Steve Nash: "Oh, good one."

(let me also mention I find Nash to be one of the most entertaining guys in the Association)

Craig Sager: "You looked like you got right up from the ground ready to fight."
Steve Nash: "Yeah I've been working on my guns."

Charles Barkley: "I can't believe he's making these passes left-handed and behind his back."
Ernie Johnson: "Yeah he's only been doing that the last 5 or 6 years."

Just everything about the NBA coverage on TNT is outstanding. The game coverage is far superior to ESPN's, and the pre/postgame crew just unspeakably good. They're constantly hilarious, but they can also be serious and talk about the games. It's a great mix.

To end I'll remember a moment from like last week, when (for some reason or another which they probably mentioned by I think I missed), Kenny Smith was not there for one of the shows. Of course, Charles doesn't miss this opportunity, and starts saying stuff like, "I am so glad you guys fired Kenny."

I am so glad for the NBA on TNT.

Weekend Basketball Action

My thoughts on each of the ongoing series':

Nets/Cavs - This series has some interesting and talented players, but I found that I haven't really gotten into it much. I think it's just the fact that it's in the Eastern Conference makes it less interesting. Regardless, the Cavs have taken a 2-1 series lead on the back of LeBron James, making Game 4 a must-win for New Jersey at home. If they fall behind 3-1 I'm not sure they'll be tough enough to come back. Of course, Jason Kidd is averaging a triple double so far this postseason, which is nice. My only thoughts are that I'm not sure either of these clubs will have the firepower to get by Detroit in the next round.

Pistons/Bulls - And yeah, Chicago may have won Game 4 by 15, but they've got no chance. I saw what I needed to in the 2nd half of Game 3... Detroit is just simply better right now. The score in a variety of ways (as opposed to just jumpshots for the Bulls), and I think they're a little better defensively right now.

Warriors/Jazz - The Jazz have taken a 3-1 lead right now, but I'm not quite ready to stick a fork in the Warriors quite yet. Assuming Jason Richardson isn't suspended for his flagrant foul, Golden State is more than capable of taking Game 5 in Utah. They had two great shots to win there in the first 2 games, and I don't think they'll be lacking any confidence just because they're down 3-1. The Jazz have been extremely impressive and obviously they're the overwhelming favorites right now, but this 3-1 series feels a lot different that the Chicago/Detroit series.

Spurs/Suns - The Spurs rallied to win Game 3, and that seemed to me like a pretty big blow for Phoenix. Phoenix just simply has no answer for Tim Duncan, who has been the most impressive player so far this postseason. Kurt Thomas is trying, but he's just not going to be able to slow him down. Duncan is averaging 32 and 15 so far against Phoenix, to go along with his phenomenal post defense. I love watching Phoenix play, but I just don't see them beating San Antonio 3 out of 4 times.

Your thoughts?

Jazz win Game 1

While I was studying (not the best method, but it works) I was fortunately able to catch game 1 between the Jazz and the Warriors, and it was pretty awesome. Quick thoughts.

- The Tony Parker/Steve Nash PG matchup is great in the other series, but this one is equally fascinating. Deron Williams had the upper hand tonight with 31 points and 8 assists, but Baron Davis was pretty darn good as well.

- Al Harrington, welcome to the playoffs. 21 points in Game 1... or 6 less than he had all series against Dallas.

- Also a Dee Brown sighting... good to see he's still doing what he does best, dribbling really fast so it looks like he's out of control, but going up for the tough layup in traffic on the fast break. He's made an art form out of that.

- Shades of the Andrei Kirilenko of old... 13 points, 7 rebounds, 7 blocks, 4 assists.

- I was really surprised that Utah matched the tempo of Golden State as much as they did. Of course, when you have Deron Williams, who's always in control, you can afford to do that and get away with it.

- That final play to put Utah ahead for good epitimizes the big advantage Utah has in this series... GS has nobody to match up with Carlos Boozer. 17 points, 20 rebounds, and he wasn't even that good offensively.

- The Western Conference playoffs are living up to the hype... Spurs/Suns game 1 was fantastic, and this one was equally exciting.

Back to studying for me... what did you think of Game 1?