Update on my bold predictions

As you may know, over the course of the summer I made a couple of baseball predictions that I considered bold, or at least bold at the time. I'm kind of short on time tonight, so I'll just give a quick update on them, and see if you think I'll be right or horribly wrong.

- First, in early June, I made a prediction that the Cubs would win the NL Central. At the time, they were 7 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. But still, I was confident that they would rebound and even made a bet with Joe from The Sports Flow.

Right now, they are 4 games over .500 and tied for first with the Brewers. I still feel pretty good about this, and think the Brewers will toil around the .500 mark while the Cubs will wind up with 85-90 wins.

- My other prediction was made in mid-July, and that was that the Yankees would win the AL East. At the time they were 3 games over .500 and 8 games behind the Red Sox.

Barring an amazing comeback (as I write this) against the Angels, they will finish the day 14 games above .500 but 6 games back of the Red Sox. As I kind of feared, they would be a lot better, but it would be tough to overcome a very good Red Sox team. I don't feel as good about this prediction obviously, but they still have a shot, with 6 games still remaining against the BoSox.

What are your thoughts? How many of these predictions will I get right?

NFL Prediction: Adrian Peterson will be the Rookie of the Year

I don't know how this matches up to some other bold predictions I've made, and it may just be blatant homerism, but I'm putting in my prediction right now that Adrian Peterson will be the NFL Rookie of the Year as long as he stays healthy.

I know, he is in a running back by committee system along with Chester Taylor. But just watch this play and tell me who you think will be getting more carries in this offense. Chester Taylor does a lot of things well, but Adrian Peterson is just an amazing runner. He's fast, he's quick, he's powerful... he's got more talent than most running backs in the NFL have. It's only preseason, but Peterson had carries for 70 yards against the Jets, and looked VERY impressive doing it.

But still, both guys will get carries. I understand that. But I do think that as the Vikings get closer to the goal line, Peterson will start to get more carries and more TDs. He's just got a nose for the endzone, and he has the power to get in there. He scored 41 touchdowns in college. Also, as the year goes on, I think Peterson will start to get more and more carries, as his talent will just be too difficult to keep off the field.

There is also some concern about his health, as he was bothered by some injuries in college. Obviously this is a concern, but I think the fact that he won't have to play every down right away will help. While the presence of Chester Taylor will hurt him a little in terms of overall numbers, it will help him stay fresh.

So what do you think? Can Adrian Peterson be the Rookie of the Year, or is this just wishful thinking on my part?

Bold Prediction: the New York Yankees will win the AL East

About a month and a half ago, I made a prediction that the Cubs would win the NL Central. At the time, they were 7 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the Brewers. Currently they sit 4 games above .500 and are 4.5 games back of the Brewers. Work to be done, but they've made progress, which gives me the confidence to make another prediction.

The Yankees are currently 3 games over .500 and 8 games behind the AL East-leading Red Sox. There was some disagreement when I put them 9th in my power rankings a couple of days ago. So it seems like the perfect time to make the call that they'll win the division.

Obviously, they have problems. A lot of the pitching staff is old (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina) and might be susceptible to injuries. Phil Hughes might be their most important pitcher in the 2nd half, and he hasn't even fully make it back from his injury yet. The bullpen has major issues. Johnny Damon has been pretty bad so far, and who knows when Jason Giambi will be back.

Still, there is hope.

The Yankees 47-44 record is a bit misleading, because they've played a lot better than that. They've had a lot of bad luck in 1-run games which tends to even out. Their run differential suggests their record should be closer to 53-38. Obviously it's not, but that's usually a pretty good indicator of future success.

The good news is that the offense is still really good (especially that A-Rod guy), and the pitching staff is starting to come together. Roger Clemens is finding his groove after his traditional late start to the season. Mussina and Pettitte are getting older but are still fairly reliable. Chien-Ming Wang has quietly put up excellent numbers. And of course, the wildcard, Phil Hughes, who was deep into a no-hitter before his injury. He has looked sharp in his rehab starts and should be back at the Major League level very soon.

And of course, the trade deadline is approaching. The Yankees have absolutely no qualms with taking on a lot of money, which tends to make things easier when trading. They also have some pretty nice prospects that they can dangle if they so choose to.

8 games is a big hole to climb at this point in the season. But I think the Yankees are finally starting to play good baseball (they've won 9 of 12), and a huge x-factor named Phil Hughes is about ready to come back. The Red Sox are a very good baseball team, but I'm going to make the prediction right now that by the end of the season, the Yankees will be better.

Your thoughts? Am I crazy?

Bold Prediction: the Chicago Cubs will win the NL Central

I'm all about bold and rash predictions on this site, which makes this perfect.

Yes, the Chicago Cubs are having their share of problems right now. The manager is imploding, they're 2-12 in 1-run games, they're 7 games under .500, and they're 6.5 games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

But still, I think they'll win the NL Central. For a few reasons:

- The division sucks. Milwaukee is the only decent team in that division, and they have started to struggle now that they are playing teams outside the division. The Brewers have been playing very well, but their record is a little better than the run differential suggests it should be, and that's with great performances from JJ Hardy (who simply can't keep up this pace), and Francisco Cordero, who has been basically superhuman so far.

- The Cubs are playing a lot better than their record would indicate. Their record is only 24-31, but they have outscored their opponents by 20 runs, suggesting that they should be 30-25. They've had some bad luck, as being 2-12 in 1-run games is just not something that tends to stay consistent over the course of the season. As long starts to deviate back towards the mean the record will improve.

- Carlos Zambrano has been horrible. He's a little overrated, but he's a lot better than a 5.62 ERA, which is what he is at right now. The BB rate is normal, but the HR rate is a little high and the K rate is a little low. These are problems that he has to fix, but his track record suggests he can and that should keep the ERA dropping. Of course, maybe this is offset some by the fact that Jason Marquis is playing out of his mind, but we'll see.

So anyway, as of now, I'll take the Cubs to win the NL Central. They're not playing particularly well at 24-31, 6.5 games back, but I think they'll have enough to come back and overtake the Brew Crew.

Your thoughts? Am I way off base here?