Book Review: "The Extra 2%" by Jonah Keri

This book review was originally posted on Reed Reads.

I got the chance to read The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First by Jonah Keri and thought this it was a fantastic book.

The book begins by talking about the early parts of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays franchise - how they came to be, and how they first ran things under the initial owner and general manager. It was a period marked by futility, alternating strategies, and a lot of losing. Fans lost interest, and the D-Rays were a joke of an MLB franchise.

Around the mid 2000s, they were sold to a buyer that had a history on Wall Street. The people he hired to run the team also had extensive experience on Wall Street, which is where the title of the book comes from. It talks about some of the areas where the Rays looked for inefficiencies in the market to build the baseball team, since they knew they would not have the financial resources to compete against teams like the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.

The book's most obvious comparison is Moneyball by Michael Lewis. It wants to be like that, and reaches out for the same fans that liked Moneyball. It is not that good - the detail into what makes the Rays successful is not shown in nearly as much detail as Lewis' famous book, but it is a great look into an MLB franchise. I would recommend it to baseball fans.

Mike Blowers Prediction

Sweet video with Mike Blowers, Seattle Mariners radio color announcer, making a pregame prediction that was eerily accurate. Say Mike, you wouldn't happen to know next month's lottery ticket number, would you?

Best Baseball Players of the 1950s

The 1950s were a great time for Major League baseball. The game was just starting to become properly integrated, fan interest was high, and there were a lot of stars playing the game. Free from a lot of the scandal that hangs around the game in the modern era, baseball was truly America's sport, and the stars of the game were loved.

One of the biggest stars of the 1950s was Mickey Mantle of the New York Yankees, one of the most famous players in baseball history.
Ads by Google

He won 3 MVP Awards in his career (including back-to-back awards in 1956 and 1957), and is one of the most talented players in ever step on the diamond. He struggled with some durability issues for most of his career, but when he was on the field he was a terror. His OPS+ ranks him 6th all-time, and with over 500 homeruns in his career he is one of the best power hitters ever.

Depending on who you ask, some people consider Willie Mays the best CF of all-time and one of the 5 greatest players of all-time. Defensively, he may have been the best to ever roam CF, as we all remember his over-the-shoulder catch at the Polo Grounds in the World Series. He was also a very dangerous hitter, and his 660 HRs are currently 4th in the history of MLB. He was definitely one of the most complete players in the history of the game, and perhaps the best of the 1950s.

Mr. Cub, Ernie Banks, was one of the best SS's in baseball history, and he was at his peak during the 1950s, winning 2 NL MVP awards. Twice he led the league in HR, and was one of the best power hitters of the decade, especially impressive as a SS. He finished his career with 512 HR and over 1600 RBI, which again are especially great numbers coming from a shortstop, historically more of a defensive position.

Then there was Yogi Berra, a 3-time MVP winner and one of the most colorful characters in baseball history. Playing for the New York Yankees, he is probably one of the 3 best catchers to ever play in the MLB. In addition to his 3 MVPs, he placed in the top 10 four other times in his career, a testament to what the media and fans thought of him during his playing career. Any look at the best players of the 1950s has to include him.

So there were a lot of stars during the 1950s... these are just a few of the best players of the decade, one of baseball's most interesting eras.

My American League All-Star Picks

With the midseason break approaching, time to give my picks for the American League All-Star team starters.

Catcher
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer is the real easy choice here. He currently sits 2nd in the AL in batting average, he's showed his usual great plate patience (.410 OBP is also second in the AL), and he's been a solid doubles hitter. We're still waiting for the homerun power to come on a semi-consistent basis, but he's still indisputably the best catcher in the AL.
Other Options: Dioner Navarro (TB)
Actual Pick: Joe Mauer

First Base
Kevin Youkilis (BOS) - I feel much less sure on this one... Jason Giambi has been a better hitter, but he has a lot less ABs and less value in the field. Youkilis has been a little better hitter than Justin Morneau, but Morneau has almost 40 more PAs. In the end, Youkilis is my choice... he's been his typical self getting on base at a .375 clip, and he's hitting for good power this year, with 13 HR and 22 2B. Plus, as always, he plays solid defense at 1B.
Other Options: Justin Morneau (MIN), Jason Giambi (NYY)
Actual Pick: Kevin Youkilis

Second Base
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Again, a pretty easy choice here. Of all regular 2B in the AL, Kinsler has the highest average, gets on base the most, and has hit for (easily) the most power. He's even stolen 23 bases while only getting thrown out once. Brian Roberts has been very good as well, but Kinsler is hitting for a lot more power and stealing bases more effectively.
Other Options: Brian Roberts (BAL)
Actual Pick: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Third Base
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) - No surprise that A-Rod is once again the best 3B in the AL. The man in a machine, and continues to be one of (if not the) top all-around players in the MLB. He's in the top 6 in lots of major offensive categories, including #2 in OPS.
Other Options: Mike Lowell (BOS), Evan Longoria (TB)
Actual Pick: Alex Rodriguez

Shortstop
Michael Young (TEX) - Honestly, not a lot of inspiring choices for AL SS. I think Young has probably been the best of a pretty mediocre bunch of AL SS's this year.
Other Options: Derek Jeter (NYY), Jhonny Peralta (CLE)
Actual Pick: Derek Jeter (NYY)

Outfield
Grady Sizemore (CLE) - Sizemore continues to be one of the best all-around players in the MLB, despite playing for an underachieving Indians team. Sizemore's average is down a bit this year, but he is still working the count to get on base, and is leading the AL in HR as of this writing. He combines that with good defense in CF, and 20 SB (only caught 3 times). Sizemore does it all on the baseball field.

Josh Hamilton (TEX) - Hamilton is one of the best stories in the MLB, and he's made it even better by becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in the AL. He's hitting for average (top 10 in AL) and power (2nd in HR, top 5 in SLG), and is far and away leading the AL in RBI with 85 as of this writing. His numbers are skewed a bit because of the ballpark he plays in (his home/road splits are pretty ugly), but he's still my choice.

JD Drew (BOS) - Drew is playing like he finally deserves that big contract, as he's been one of the best hitters in the AL so far this year. His OPS easily is tops among AL OFs with enough ABs to qualify. He's 3rd in the League in SLG, and he's getting on base at an excellent clip, also 3rd in the American League.

Other Options: Carlos Quentin (CHI), Jermaine Dye (CHI), Nick Markakis (BAL)
Actual Picks: Josh Hamilton, Manny Ramirez (BOS), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

Designated Hitter
Milton Bradley (TEX) - No contest here whatsoever. Bradley has likely been the best hitter in the American League so far this season, and is definitely far and away above the other DH candidates. If you were going to bet on baseball, what were the odds you could have gotten if you would have picked Milton Bradley to be leading the AL in OPS at the midway point?
Actual Pick: David Ortiz (BOS)

What would your picks be?

MLB Power Rankings

Here is how I see the top 10 in the MLB as of June 17th... feel free to disagree, as this is what I believe is referred to as an inexact science.

1. Chicago Cubs - No real question about this in my mind. The Cubs are 2nd in the Majors in runs and 4th in the Majors in ERA. This means that their pythegorean record is even better than their Major League best 45-25 mark, which means this hot start is probably not a fluke. We'll see if they keep this pace up even with Soriano on the shelf, but so far they appear to be very legit.

2. Boston Red Sox - The Sox have a blistering 28-7 record at home, but they're only 16-22 on the road. They're also dealing with an injury to an offensive star, as David Ortiz continues to mend. But JD Drew has actually looked like an $11 million/year player of late, meaning the offense has barely missed a beat.

3. Philadelphia Phillies - Led by strong MVP candidate Chase Utley (and don't look now, but Pat Burrell has been awesome this year), the Phillies look like the 2nd best team in the NL right now. Cole Hamels is keeping the rotation together, and the pen is led by Brad Lidge, who has decided to be a great (great) closer again. The Phils actually have the 2nd best pythagorean record in the MLB.

4. Chicago White Sox - Guys like Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez might lead you to think that hitting has been the main reason for the Sox becoming relevant once again, but pitching has actually been the reason. Their 3.33 ERA is tops in the Majors, and they have been solid from 1-5 in the rotation, most surprisingly with John Danks and Gavin Floyd.

5. Oakland Athletics - The A's were supposed to be rebuilding, but they're 38-31, and the run differential suggests they should be even better than that. They're not ripping it up at the plate, but their 3.34 is just barely behind the White Sox for best in the MLB. If Rich Harden stays healthy (a huge if), the A's have one of the most formidable rotations in the MLB.

6. LA Angels - The Angels lead the AL West, but part of that reason is a little bit of abnormal success in close games, as shown through K-Rod's MLB leading 28 saves. They're in the bottom 3rd of the MLB in runs, however, and they'll need Vladimir Guerrero to start picking it up if they're going to continue at this pace.

7. St. Louis Cardinals - Even with Pujols injured, they're sticking in there with guys like Ryan Ludwick, who's improbably been one of the best hitters in the NL this season. Unfortunately, things haven't gotten easier, with Adam Wainwright on the DL and Todd Wellemeyer undergoing problems recently. Dave Duncan needs to keep pulling rabbits out of his hat.

8. Tampa Bay Rays - One of the feel good stories of the season, the Rays are 11 games above the .500 mark and having the best season so far of their existence. While BJ Upton and Carl Crawford are some of the first guys that come to mind, this has been the result of pitching from Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and James Shields. Kazmir missed the start of the year because of injury, but he might still be a Cy Young candidate - in 8 starts he has 6 wins, a 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 9.41 K/9.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks - The DBacks aren't doing anything special, but they have a large lead over the rest of the West, which has been really bad. Some might consider Justin Upton a disappointment a little for his low BA, but his peripheral numbers look pretty excellent for a 20 year old. He's going to be studly.

10. New York Yankees - The Yankees are just hanging around, like they usually do. The pitching was already mediocre, and that won't be helped by the injury of Wang. The Yankees do have to be pleased with the resurgence of Jason Giambi, who is a power threat once again.

What changes would you make?

Early Season MLB Surprises and Disappointments

With the MLB season being 1/16 over, of course it's time to grossly exaggerate what has happened so far.

-Surprises-

Livan Hernandez, RHP, Twins- I and humans everywhere scoffed at the Twins throwing multi million dollars at Livan Hernandez, but so far at least it has worked out. Livan is 3-0, but more importantly he has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. If the Twins play Adam Everett and Matt Tolbert in the middle infield spots it should boost their defense and help out Livan and more importantly the rest of that young staff.

Brian Bannister, RHP, Royals- I suppose I shouldn't be too surprised, but I didn't totally believe Bannister's 2007. He had a good year, but only 77 strikeouts. What's surprising is that Bannister doesn't quite put up the stats that should endear him to the sabermetric community, and more so, he understands why. The fact that Bannister is familiar with things like DIPS should only make him be a better pitcher and improve even more.

San Francisco Giants- Yes I realize they're 6-10 only. Yes I realize it's April 16, but if the Giants put up this good of a record over a whole season I'll be very impressed. Honestly, they are horrible. Take a look around their roster once. Bengie Molina hits cleanup? Brian Bocock plays short? Brian Bocock put up a robust .220/.293/.328 in the California League, probably the best offensive league in minor league baseball, which equates out to a -25.9 VORP. And outside of Angel Villalona, who is only 17, there isn't any help coming from any younger kids either, unless Dan Ortmeier tickles your fancy. The only thing keeping them going is the duo of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. And with the way he's pitching and the way the offense is going, Matt Cain is my odds on favorite to lead the NL in ERA and losses, if you can bet on such a thing.

-Disappointments-

Russ Martin, C, Dodgers- Really I could include the entire Dodgers team here. I picked out Martin mainly because I traded for him in fantasy baseball, but to tell the truth I'm not worried. My main complaint with the Dodgers is that Joe Torre is treating managing a major league baseball team like it's building a space shuttle (or to borrow a phrase from my favorite person on earth "it's not rocket surgery") rather than what it is: put your best 8 (or 9) guys out there and let them go to it. Instead the Dodgers have used the same lineup just twice, and inexplicably have played Juan Pierre, who shouldn't ever be on the field except to pinch run, instead of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier for some games. Really Joe Torre, put him in the 2 hole and let him go to work. The end.

New York Yankees- I said this was the year the Yankees would miss the playoffs. Hopefully I'll be right. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes have tons of talent, but it takes time to adjust to a major league season, but the Yankees don't have free wins against the Rays and Jays anymore to get back on track. The American League is just too good for a team to have to wait to get things going. Also, why in the world don't the Yanks have Mussina in the pen and Joba in the rotation? Truth be told, I hate the Yankees, and I'm not a huge fan of Joba doing stuff like this, but it's tough to root against a guy when this is going on. Also, the Yankees are relying probably a bit too much on older players such as Damon, Giambi, Posada and Matsui. Obviously they are good players, but how long can they play at their highest level?

On one more note, my preseason World Series pick, the Arizona Diamondbacks (yes I wish I had that on record) are playing very well. Chris Young is coming into his own (although probably should be hitting cleanup) and Justin Upton is one of the better young players in the game. It should be interesting to follow them all season.

Who are your surprises and disappointments?

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Base

After ranking the first basemen a few days ago, it's time to move on to 2B!

1. Chase Utley - It shouldn't be any surprise, but Utley is still the cream of the crop when it comes to 2B. He hit .332 last year, which is really good. But really, he does a little bit of everything. He missed 30 games, but he still had 22 HR, over 100 RBI, and over 100 Runs. And he even stole 9 bases just for good measure. He is easily the top fantasy 2B.

2. B.J. Upton - Upton is another guy that cashed in on his enormous talent in 2007. He showed good power, speed, and patience at the plate, which should carry over into the new year. Playing in only 129 games, he had 24 HR and 22 SB. The fact that he has a solid walk rate (and a .386 OBP) will give him plenty of opportunities to get on base and either steal bases or score a lot of runs. The fact that he will only be 23 for most of the year gives him the slight edge over Phillips for the 2nd spot.

3. Brandon Phillips - Phillips finally truly cashed in on all that talent, having a breakout year in 2007. He gives you power and speed from the 2B spot, with a 30-32 year last season. He also scored over 100 runs, and his .288 BA was certainly respectable. He'll turn 27 this summer, meaning he should be right in the middle of his prime.

4. Brian Roberts - He's a stolen base fiend, finishing with 50 of them in 2007. But that doesn't mean he is one-dimensional, as he also brings a solid amount of pop. He hit 12 HR and had 42 2B last year, which is not too shabby for a guy that brings so many SB as well as over 100 runs. An average of .290 is nothing to complain about either.

5. Robinson Cano - He didn't quite hit for .342 like he did in 2006, but he's still a very effective fantasy player. The average was still a very respectable .306, and he displayed solid power with 19 HR and 41 2B. As he's playing in the Yankees lineup, his RBI and R totals will be solid no matter where he bats in the order.

6. Chone Figgins - He might not hit .330 again, but he brings a lot of speed and versatility to the table. He missed over 45 games last year, but still had 41 SB, following up his 52 SB in 2006 and 62 SB in 2005. He doesn't have a lot of power, but he has averaged 8 triples over the past 3 years, which helps. He's also eligible for multiple positions.

7. Howie Kendrick - The guy can rake. As a 24 year-old playing only part of the time, he hit .322 last season, and slugged a very respectable .450. He doesn't take walks and he doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he's a great hitter for average, and should score a lot of runs in a solid Angels offense.

8. Ian Kinsler - Kinsler is a decent option for speed and power at 2B. He finished 2007 with 20 HR and 22 SB. He also showed solid plate discipline, finishing with an OBP of .355. He's a solid option at 2B... there are guys with more upside at this spot, but you could certainly do worse than Ian Kinsler.

9. Rickie Weeks - Many people (myself included) expected a breakout year from Weeks, but due to injuries and such, it never materialized, as he finished with just a .235 AVG. However, some of the peripheral numbers did look good... he took a fair amount of walks, had decent power, and even stole 25 bases. He's got high upside, but has to stay healthy.

10. Placido Polanco - Polanco was excellent last year with a .341 AVG, which allowed him to score over 100 runs. It's unrealistic to expect such high output again, but he will be in a solid lineup that adds Miguel Cabrera. Polanco is another guy that is just a solid option... there are other guys who might have more upside at this spot, but you know what you're getting from Placido Polanco.

Your thoughts? What would you change around?

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base

It's that time of year again! Here's my top 10 for 1B for Fantasy Baseball.

1. Albert Pujols - The power numbers were way down, but he still edges out Prince for the top spot. But it is a bit worrisome that he hit 17 less HR last year than in 2006, and had only 103 RBI compared to 137 the year before. Unlike past year, he's not a guy to consider with the first overall pick, but he's still the top 1B.

2. Prince Fielder - Prince obviously had a huge year in 2007, hitting 50 HR and topping 119 RBI. The average was at .288, which is obviously still good, but also about 40-50 points behind Albert Pujols, which is why Prince comes in at 2nd.

3. Ryan Howard - As was to be expected, Howard's numbers went down some compared to 2006, but he was still very productive. Fantasy owners will take 47 HR and a solid 136 RBI. One concern is that his average fell from .313 to .268, a rather precipitous drop. If he can get it back to the .300 range, he'll once again be a contender for top fantasy 1B.

4. David Ortiz - Curiously, Ortiz hit 19 fewer HR last year than in 2006, but he had 23 more doubles. Not sure why that was the case. He's still an RBI machine, totaling 117 last year, which was actually his lowest in 4 years. He should continue to get plenty of opportunities to drive runners in batting right in the middle of a very potent lineup.

5. Mark Teixeira - Teixeira quietly tore the cover off the ball in Atlanta, slugging .615 after the midseason trade. In only 54 games with the Braves, he had 17 HR and 56 RBI. He probably can't keep up that pace, but the Atlanta offense should be solid once again, and he'll be a big part of that.

6. Lance Berkman - As is becoming a theme with the 1B on this list, Berkman's power numbers were way down last year, as his HR total dropped by 11 and his SLG fell over 100 points. Even in a down year, he still hit 34 HR and had over 100 RBI. Again, if he can regain 2006 form, he's probably a top 3 1B.

7. Justin Morneau - Morneau didn't have quite the year he did during his MVP campaign, but he still hit 31 HR and drove in a solid 111 runs. The average did drop 50 points, which is a concern. I suspect we will see his numbers settle in somewhere in between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, which makes for a very good run-producing machine.

8. Derrek Lee - He probably won't approach the 46 HR he had in 2005 again, but he is a doubles machine, hitting 43 last year in 150 games. He's also a very solid hitter for average, as his batting average was a solid .317.

9. Travis Hafner - He was a bit of a disappointment last year with his numbers completely down across the board. His SLG dropped a whopping 200 points and his average was down 40 points. He hit 16 less HR, had 17 fewer RBI, and scored 20 less runs. However, if he can return anywhere near to his 2004-2006 form, he's a top 5 1B. Worth the risk.

10. Adrian Gonzalez - 30 HR, 100 RBI, 101 runs, and 46 doubles... those are numbers you can live with. Gonzalez is a very productive player who you know what you're going to get. He's never going to be an MVP type player, but he's just an above average 1B that helps you in a few different areas.

What are your thoughts? Which of these rankings would you change?

Thursday Debate: Who should be the AL Cy Young?

For the second straight Thursday Debate, let's focus on the AL Cy Young race, because there are lots of good candidates here. Much like the NL MVP race, any number of guys could reasonably win.

As mentioned a week or so ago, I like CC Sabathia to win the AL Cy Young Award. In my mind, with his peripheral numbers and league-leading amount of innings pitched, he is the best choice for this award.

But there are certainly a lot of other viable candidates. A brief rundown of them:

John Lackey - Led the league in ERA. Also had 179 K against only 52 BB.

Fausto Carmona - 2nd in the AL in ERA. Was GREAT at inducing groundballs. Sort of like a younger Chien Ming-Wang with more upside.

Johan Santana - Had a down year (relatively speaking) but still had nearly a 5:1 K:BB ratio.

Josh Beckett - Led the AL in DIPS among starters. Like Santana, a great K:BB rate.

Dan Haren - Was the leading candidate at the Break, and still had a fine year even though he tailed off a little bit. Third in the AL in ERA.

Erik Bedard - Might have been my Cy Young choice had he not gotten hurt towards the end of the year. Ridiculous K/9 rate.

Vote with your conscience.

Who should be the AL Cy Young?
	CC Sabathia
	Johan Santana
	Fausto Carmona
	Josh Beckett
	Erik Bedard
	Dan Haren
	John Lackey
	Other

The Chicago Cubs season could not have gone any better

Let me first say that I am not a Cubs fan. I wouldn't say my dislike is enough to call me a Cubs Hater, but I dislike them.

That said, I was rooting for them this regular season. That's because back in very early June, when the Cubs were 7 games under .500 and 6.5 GB of the Milwaukee Brewers, I made the prediction that they would win the NL Central. Joe from The Sports Flow called this "a reach", (by the way, he still hasn't paid me my $5!), but at the end of the season, it was the Cubs on top of the NL Central, making my bold prediction come true.

So I was happy about that. Then, I went back to cheering against them in the playoffs... where they were promptly swept. Life is good.

Thursday Debate: Who should be the NL MVP?

I touched on this a few days ago, but it's really pretty fascinating how many viable candidates there are for the NL MVP this year. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if any of a number of guys won the award, and I think there are viable arguments to be made for about 5 players, which is extremely rare.

My vote was Hanley Ramirez, as I obviously do not subscribe to the theory that a player has to be on a winning team to be an MVP candidate, because in my mind it makes no difference how good a player's team is when looking at an individual award. Other people have vastly different opinions on this, which makes for some pretty good debate.

Also, I was forced to bring back Thursday Debate due to popular demand (and by that 2 people that I personally know said I should bring it back)... not that that's a bad thing.

But I really am interested to see what you guys think... who should be the NL MVP? And why? Please vote, and leave a reason or two in the comments. I think the results could be really interesting.

Who should be the National League MVP?
	Hanley Ramirez
	David Wright
	Jimmy Rollins
	Matt Holliday
	Prince Fielder
	Albert Pujols
	Chipper Jones
	Chase Utley
	Miguel Cabrera
	Other

MLB Playoff Predictions

Yes, it is officially October. I'm studying for an Accounting test (which seems to be a constant thing for me!), so just my moderately quick picks for round 1. And I say this will full confidence and knowledge that the playoffs are an absolute crapshoot. Such is life.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Red Sox over Angels in 4 - I don't know, just not a huge fan of the Angels. I think the Red Sox are just a much better team. Their records were only 2 games apart, but the Sox Pythagorean record was a whopping 13 games better than the Angels. The Red Sox look like a pretty complete team.

Indians over Yankees in 5 - I've kind of been on the Yankees bandwagon all year, but I think their bullpen is a bit shaky. They have Rivera, and Joba has been lights out since being called up, but who else do they turn to? I think this will be their undoing.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Phillies over Rockies in 5 - The Rockies are a much better home team than they are road team (12 game difference). The Phillies are a better home team than they are a road team. I think this will be a big factor in the series. But let me say I am pretty excited for this matchup, especially seeing the Rockies back in the postseason. I'm actually really excited to see all of these new teams in the National League playoffs.

Cubs over Diamondbacks in 4 - I think the Cubs are a little more of a complete team. Better pitching, and the offense seemed to get a little better at the season went along. Plus, the Diamondbacks were outscored by 20 runs this season... they can't win a playoff series with a differential like that, can they? (ok, I pretty much just guaranteed they will. and i'm ok with that)

What are your picks?

My MLB Awards - American League

After giving my National League Awards yesterday, it's time for the AL, because such is the natural progression of things.

Cy Young: CC Sabathia (Cleveland Indians)
Sabathia sticks out slightly to me in a crowded AL race at the top. He had a great K:BB rate of 5.65:1, which best among AL starters. Another thing that gives him the edge in my book is that he had 241 IP, again leading the AL.
2. Dan Haren (Oakland Athletics)
Haren cooled off a lot in the 2nd half, but he still put together an excellent season. He had a solid K rate and BB rate, which gives him a slight edge over Lackey in my book.
3. John Lackey (Los Angeles Angels)
As mentioned, this was really close. Honestly, if you put him at #1, I'd be hard-pressed to agree. He's been a very, very good pitcher for a few years now.
4. Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox)
He was always a little overrated, but this year he really pitched up to his potential. The voters will look at the wins, but the more telling stats are the 4.85: 1 K:BB rate, and the fact that he did a solid job of keeping the ball in ballpark. And the fact that he stayed healthy is nice.
5. Johan Santana (Minnesota Twins)
He was not as good as he has been over the last 3 years, but still pretty darn effective. He struck out a solid 9.66 batters per 9 innings.


Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia (Boston Red Sox)
I think Pedroia was the best of a moderately underwhelming AL rookie class. But that shouldn't discount Pedroia's achievement, because he was very solid holding down 2B for the Sox. He was solid defensively at 2B, got on base at a very solid .380 clip, and even hit 39 doubles. A very solid year. (Ed. Note: I just realized I wrote the word "solid" 4 times in that description. I should proofread sometimes)
2. Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)
Surprisingly, even though he cooled off a little, Guthrie was the best AL Rookie pitcher in my book. He didn't strike out as many guys as Daisuke, but he has better control, which led to a solid 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Boston Red Sox)
I think it's fair to say that Daisuke was a little bit of a disappointment. Still, he has nasty stuff and gave them almost 205 solid innings. He had a good K rate, but walked a few too many guys. That resulted in a 4.40 ERA.
4. Hideki Okajima (Boston Red Sox)
In 69 innings, struck out 63 batters, walked 17, had 27 holds (for what it's worth), and even contributed 5 saves. He was a key cog in the very solid Red Sox bullpen.
5. Rafael Perez (Cleveland Indians
Perez was just about as good as it got in terms of middle relievers. In over 60 innings, he had over a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and had a 1.78 ERA for the Tribe.


MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NY Yankees)
The easy choice. Playing 3B, all he did was lead the league in SLG, OPS, finish 4th in OBP, and even steal 24 bases just for good measure. Just a great, great player.
2. David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox)
He didn't do quite enough to overcome the fact that he doesn't play defense, but might have been the best hitter in the AL this year. He led the AL in OBP and finished 2nd in SLG. An underappreciated part of the Red Sox dominance this year was how very, very good David Ortiz was.
3. Magglio Ordonez (Detroit Tigers)
He cooled down a little bit in the 2nd half, but still hard to argue with the production. 2nd in the AL in VORP.
4. Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
Yes, it's a bit baffling to me as well. But check the numbers. He was absurdly good this year. OBP of .411, and he finished 2nd in the AL in SLG.
5. Jorge Posada (New York Yankees)
A late career resurgence for Jorge Posada. As a catcher, he finished 3rd in the AL in OBP, and smacked 63 XBH. Jorge is my choice for #5.

What are your picks?

My MLB Awards - National League

Time to unveil my awards for the 2007 MLB season, starting with the National League. If you disagree, please voice your opinions in the comments, because a lot of these could get some good discussion (especially concerning the MVP, which is a wide open race). Anyway, my picks for Cy Young, ROY, and MVP.

Cy Young: Jake Peavy (San Diego)
Simply been the best in the NL. The ERA and wins are there (which is what the voters look for), but the secondary numbers are great as well. He's got about a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and leads the NL in Strikeouts and WHIP. This is a really easy choice.

2. Brandon Webb (Arizona)
I think Webb is the best of the rest, though there are a lot of guys close together. Webb struck out a solid 194 batters, but the fact that he pitched a League-high 236 innings gives him the edge at #2 in my proverbial book.
3. John Smoltz (Atlanta)
Smoltz just quietly goes out and delivered another outstanding season. Seriously, people don't talk about this guy enough. All he did was have a 4:1 K:BB ratio while pitching over 200 innings. Still one of the best pitchers in the game.
4. Roy Oswalt (Houston)
Mr. Consistency. You know what you're getting with Oswalt. His BB totals were a little higher than you might like, but he still had over 200 productive innings.
5. Brad Penny (Los Angeles)
Penny was excellent, though I think the 16-4 record is a little gaudy. His K:BB rate was less than 2:1, though he did a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark.


Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun (Milwaukee)
This seemed like such an obvious choice a month or two ago, but not so much anymore. At this point, Troy Tulowitzki is not really a bad choice. That said, I'm sticking with Braun, who was just a bit too good at the plate.

2. Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
Tulowitzki shoots up because he has over 600 ABs (most among these rookies), and has hit solidly while playing SS. A solid 24 HR.
3. Hunter Pence (Houston)
If he hadn't gotten hurt, he would definitely be challenging for the Rookie of the Year crown. As it is, he has to settle for 3rd in my book. Even without really taking a lot of walks, he was still really productive at the plate. He has a solid 56 XBH.
4. Tim Lincecum (San Francisco)
Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA, which was made more impressive by some nice splits. He had a great K rate. He was about equal with Gallardo, but he had about 25 more IP than him, which puts Lincecum at 4th and Gallardo at 6th.
5. James Loney (Los Angeles)
Loney was really good. He got on base at a .384 clip, and slugged nearly .550. In a hitter's ballpark. If he had more than about 370 PAs he would be higher on this list.
Also Considered: Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee), Peter Moylan (Atlanta)


MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Florida)
I suspect this is a choice a lot of people might disagree with. First let me say that this was a wide open race in the NL (more than I can ever really remember one being), and I think you could definitely make arguments for 5 or 6 different guys. But I am a big Hanley Ramirez guy. A few notes:
A) I place absolutely no significance in how good a player's team or teammates are. This is an individual award. I don't punish Hanley Ramirez (or any other player on a poor team) simply because the owners want a $20 million payroll.
B) A lot of Ramirez's value is derived from the fact that he is playing SS.
C) He's in the top 10 in OPS, leads the NL in VORP, gets on base, hits for power, and steals bases at a productive rate. And he plays SS. This is why he is my MVP.

2. David Wright (New York)
OK, his team choked down the stretch. But Wright had a great year. He was 4th in the NL in OBP, hit for power, and plays a decent 3B. Like Hanley, he gets a bump because of the position that he plays.
3. Albert Pujols (St. Louis)
He was not as good as he has been, and his team was not good, but he was still extremely productive. He had a poor April, but rebounded to finish in the top 2 in the NL in OBP, and slug over .570. The man OPS'ed 1.101 after the AS Break.
4. Prince Fielder (Milwaukee)
He was extremely productive, but he's just a step below these top 3 in my book. He plays QB which drops him a little lower than guys like Hanley and David Wright, and he doesn't get on base as much as Pujols. The counting stats are nice, but I think the other guys were a little more valuable.
5. Chase Utley (Philadelphia)
If he had played all season, he might very well be my MVP. He was really, really good. OBP of over .410, and he slugged over .560. All as a 2nd basemen.
6. Matt Holliday (Colorado)
I have a hard time ranking him. Someone whose baseball opinion I respect (you know who you are) said he was his NL MVP, but I have him 6th. That speaks to the wildness of this MVP race. For me, I just have a hard time getting over those home/road splits. But Holliday was quite good this year.
7. Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia)
Jimmy Rollins is a 30 HR hitter! Seriously. He doesn't get on base at the rate that a lot of the other guys do, but he hit for good power this year (87 XBH), played solid D at SS, and stole bases at a great rate.
8. Miguel Cabrera (Florida)
I've kinda always had it in my mind that Cabrera was the best 3B in the NL but was unjustly overshadowed by David Wright, but I do think Wright was a little better this year. Still, at only age 24, Cabrera should be in quite a few more MVP races in his career.
9. Chipper Jones (Atlanta)
Chipper was actually pretty awesome this year, he just couldn't stay on the field enough, amassing only about 590 PAs. But he actually led the NL in OPS. Bet you didn't know that if you hadn't already looked it up. Just a fine, fine hitter.
10. Jake Peavy (San Diego)
I'm not necessarily opposed to giving a pitcher an MVP award... but it would have to be a really extreme example. This doesn't qualify.

What are your thoughts? Who are your award winners?

Also, by popular demand, look for a Thursday Debate on the NL MVP race later in the week.

Rangers score 30 runs

By now I'm sure you know that the Texas Rangers just barely hung on to beat the Orioles in the first game of a double-header by the score of 30-3. But here was some of the things that I found most interesting about the game:

- Despite scoring 30 runs, the Rangers only scored in 4 different innings. For five separate innings they were held scoreless.

- The Orioles actually had a 3-0 lead, which means the Rangers scored 30 unanswered runs.

- The Rangers #8 and #9 hitters (Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ramon Vazquez): 8/12, 2 BB, 4 HR, 9 R, 14 RBI. That's called getting production out of the bottom of the lineup.

- Every Rangers started had at least 2 hits. The one guy for the Rangers that came in off of the bench (Travis Metcalf) hit a grand slam.

- The Rangers had 6 HR, but only 2 doubles.

- Wes Littleton of the Rangers, by virtue of pitching the final 3 innings, recorded a save. In a 30-3 game. That is awesome.

Other than the enormity of the runs by the Rangers, what did you find most interesting about the game?

Update on my bold predictions

As you may know, over the course of the summer I made a couple of baseball predictions that I considered bold, or at least bold at the time. I'm kind of short on time tonight, so I'll just give a quick update on them, and see if you think I'll be right or horribly wrong.

- First, in early June, I made a prediction that the Cubs would win the NL Central. At the time, they were 7 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. But still, I was confident that they would rebound and even made a bet with Joe from The Sports Flow.

Right now, they are 4 games over .500 and tied for first with the Brewers. I still feel pretty good about this, and think the Brewers will toil around the .500 mark while the Cubs will wind up with 85-90 wins.

- My other prediction was made in mid-July, and that was that the Yankees would win the AL East. At the time they were 3 games over .500 and 8 games behind the Red Sox.

Barring an amazing comeback (as I write this) against the Angels, they will finish the day 14 games above .500 but 6 games back of the Red Sox. As I kind of feared, they would be a lot better, but it would be tough to overcome a very good Red Sox team. I don't feel as good about this prediction obviously, but they still have a shot, with 6 games still remaining against the BoSox.

What are your thoughts? How many of these predictions will I get right?

What the Arizona Diamondbacks are doing is pretty remarkable

On the surface, what the Arizona Diamondbacks are doing doesn't seem that out of the ordinary. Sure, no one expected them to have the best record in the NL at 71-54, but stranger things have happened.

But looking at it a little closer, it's actually kind of amazing what they are doing right now. At the time that I write this, even though they are 17 games over .500, they have been outscored by 20 runs on the season. That is kind of amazing when you think about it.

According to their pythagorean record (which is based on run differential), their record should probably look more like 60-65. Which would put them 4th in the division.

Obviously, that fact makes little difference to the Diamondbacks, but it is something to keep in mind because pythagorean record has usually been a fairly good indicator of future results (for examples see the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs). That means that you probably shouldn't be surprised if the Diamondbacks slowly start to struggle, and eventually lose the division lead.

Of course, I've kind of been waiting for that for about a month now, but the Diamondbacks just keep on winning. Baseball is a funny game.

Barry Bonds rookie card

Sorry, I just laughed out loud when I saw this, so I had to post it.

If Joe Morgan wrote for this blog

I did this once before with John Kruk, and now it's time to bring it back. Also, thanks to FJM, just for being awesome in general.

What a year it has been so far! I'm absolutely delighted to be writing this. Seriously, I couldn't be more thrilled.

The biggest news in baseball right now, of course, is that Barry Bonds is the new HR leader. I'd love to talk about it more, but it would just cause too much controversy. For some reason, people don't want to be happy for Barry Bonds, and just enjoy the record. I'm not sure why people have this type of attitude.

The other big story right now is the New York Yankees, who have started to play a lot better and are right in the playoff race. I'm not big on their chances though, because the one thing you need more than anything else is consistency, and they just don't have that. One game they will score 20 runs, the next they will get shut out. Also, the bullpen has not been consistent, and I don't think they have anyone capable of coming in there to help right now. Mariano Rivera is still the best closer in the MLB, but he can't do it by himself.

One of the big surprises this year has been the Milwaukee Brewers, who are atop the NL Central right now. I haven't gotten a chance to watch them play yet this year, but they have a young, exciting team. I have heard a lot of good things about them, but let's see if they can remain consistent enough down the stretch.

Another of the most enjoyable things about this year has been the resurgence of Ken Griffey Jr. for the Big Red Machine in Cincinnati. I try to stay away from using all of these complicated statistics because I prefer to watch the games, but he is 5th in the League in HR right now, and definitely one of the most dangerous players in the MLB.

This is my favorite time of the year. Now that we are down to the final 2 months of the year, we can see which teams can be the most consistent. We can see if teams like the Yankees to scrounge up enough offense to help out veteran winners like Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina. Or if teams like the Boston Red Sox can score the tough runs when it really matters.

Remember, things aren't over until they are over, and certainly at this point no one is out of the playoff race. That's why they play the games.

MLB Power Rankings

First off, I apologize for such a long break in between posts. But if it's any consolation I had a fabulous weekend and don't have any regrets that I wasn't able to spend more time at the computer! So I have that going for me, which is nice.

As always, these rankings reflect how good I think these teams are at the moment, not who has accomplished most so far this year. Thus, they aren't based strictly on W-L records so far, because that would be boring.

1. Boston Red Sox - The Yankees have made a nice run lately, but the Sox have stayed pretty hot themselves. Their W-L record is easily the best in baseball right now, and their Pythagorean record suggests they might be even better than that. They continue to look like the best team in baseball.

2. New York Yankees - In past power rankings and in my bold prediction post I suggested that the Yankees have been the unluckiest team in baseball and their luck would be turning around quickly. Right now, that is happening, as they have won 4 straight and 18 of 24. Their run differential thinks that this correction should continue to occur, which is partly why I still think they'll have a pretty decent shot of winning the division, especially if the Red Sox ever slow down a little.

3. Los Angeles Angels - The Angels are following the "play .500 on the road and win a lot at home" style perfectly. They are nearly 20 games over .500 at home, and about at .500 on the road. That puts them #3 in my power rankings.

4. Cleveland Indians - Cleveland continues to be in a dogfight in the Central, but they were helped by Detroit's little losing streak. They hold a half game lead over Detroit and 5.5 game lead on the Twins right now.

5. New York Mets - They've created a bit of a separation from the rest of the NL East, and right now look like the best team in the National League. They should also get a big boost if Pedro Martinez can come back and be anything close to his old self.

6. Detroit Tigers - The Tigers are slumping, having lost 8 of their last 10. Still, they're 62-49 and right in both the division and Wildcard race. 2 of the Tigers superb outfielders, Gary Sheffield and Curtis Granderson, have struggled a lot lately, which has been part of the problem. But so has the fact that they've given up 67 runs in their last 10 games, including 7 or more runs 6 times. That's not good.

7. Chicago Cubs - I know they're 1 game out of first right now, but I kind of think they're the best team in the Central, though the loss of Soriano for a couple of weeks doesn't help. They were actually tied with the Brewers at one point in the weekend. Like the Yankees, they're a team that has played beneath their Pythagorean record all year long, and while they've gotten closer to evening that out, there is still a little ways to go. Which is why I still think they'll win the Central.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks - Every time I do this or every time I look at the standings I think the Diamondbacks' record is a bit fluky and they'll fall off. I still do think they will start to slide at some point, but until they do it's hard to ignore what they're doing. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball, and are slowly eyeing the Mets for the best record in the NL. And yet their run differential suggests they're about 10 games worse than their record. Like I said, I have a hard time seeing this success continue, but who knows.

9. Seattle Mariners - These are the AL version of the Diamondbacks. Their run differential suggests they shouldn't be this good, but they continue to hang around, 3 or 4 games behind the Angels (the game is not over at the time of this writing). The callup of Adam Jones might be a nice spark.

10. San Diego Padres - Unlike the previous 2 teams, these guys continue to play a little worse than the runs would suggest. I keep thinking these guys will eventually pull away a little bit and take a lead in the West, but it just hasn't happened. If I was a betting man I'd still say they'll win the West. But I'm not really a betting man.

Just missing this week is Milwaukee (they would be #11)(side note: how good is Ryan Braun? Seriously? WOW.), Atlanta/Philadelphia (tough to separate these teams right now), and Minnesota.

What changes would you make?