Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Bold Prediction: the New York Yankees will win the AL East

About a month and a half ago, I made a prediction that the Cubs would win the NL Central. At the time, they were 7 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the Brewers. Currently they sit 4 games above .500 and are 4.5 games back of the Brewers. Work to be done, but they've made progress, which gives me the confidence to make another prediction.

The Yankees are currently 3 games over .500 and 8 games behind the AL East-leading Red Sox. There was some disagreement when I put them 9th in my power rankings a couple of days ago. So it seems like the perfect time to make the call that they'll win the division.

Obviously, they have problems. A lot of the pitching staff is old (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina) and might be susceptible to injuries. Phil Hughes might be their most important pitcher in the 2nd half, and he hasn't even fully make it back from his injury yet. The bullpen has major issues. Johnny Damon has been pretty bad so far, and who knows when Jason Giambi will be back.

Still, there is hope.

The Yankees 47-44 record is a bit misleading, because they've played a lot better than that. They've had a lot of bad luck in 1-run games which tends to even out. Their run differential suggests their record should be closer to 53-38. Obviously it's not, but that's usually a pretty good indicator of future success.

The good news is that the offense is still really good (especially that A-Rod guy), and the pitching staff is starting to come together. Roger Clemens is finding his groove after his traditional late start to the season. Mussina and Pettitte are getting older but are still fairly reliable. Chien-Ming Wang has quietly put up excellent numbers. And of course, the wildcard, Phil Hughes, who was deep into a no-hitter before his injury. He has looked sharp in his rehab starts and should be back at the Major League level very soon.

And of course, the trade deadline is approaching. The Yankees have absolutely no qualms with taking on a lot of money, which tends to make things easier when trading. They also have some pretty nice prospects that they can dangle if they so choose to.

8 games is a big hole to climb at this point in the season. But I think the Yankees are finally starting to play good baseball (they've won 9 of 12), and a huge x-factor named Phil Hughes is about ready to come back. The Red Sox are a very good baseball team, but I'm going to make the prediction right now that by the end of the season, the Yankees will be better.

Your thoughts? Am I crazy?


SlickBomb said...

NY is not going to be bringing on any more payroll. Glory, glory hallelujah! The Bronx is marching on!

/end fanboy

CW aka Chad Sexington® said...

I think the division might be more plausible than the Wild Card, so as a Bombers fan, I'm extremely cautiously optimistic...I can't stress how cautious I am enough...

John said...

Take a look at Boston's schedule the rest of the way, especially in Sept & Oct...very easy

Sanchez said...

Wow, that is a bold prediction. But one I'm with you on. The Yankees are never end up as crap as they at first seem.

Anonymous said...

Crazy? No.

Flat out retarded? Yes.

How you got into college, much less linked by Deadspin, is the bigger mystery.

Rich Kotite said...

Not only are the Yankees going to win the division, but the Socks aren't making the playoffs.

Curt Schilling has hit the wall. He's done. He should've went out a hero after the sock thing, but he's too much of a moron to do that. David Ortiz is hurt. His numbers are terrible, but his clutchness helps that team out big-time. He's going to need some surgery, though, which will either screw them for about 2 to 3 weeks now, or screw them the last month of the season when he can't put any of that Mo Vaughn-like fat on his front foot ... Their best pitcher - Beckett - is due for some blisters. Their second best pitcher is a rookie, who is going to start getting TAGGED in games now that people have seen him a few times. The rest of their staff is a cancer-survivor who was no damned good last season, this rookie with the funny name, and a knuckle-baller who's been rocked his last few outings ...

The Yankees are going to go hard after some bull-pen help, and they're going to go hard after a big bat that can play first (Adam Dunn?). Phil Hughes is going to come back and win about 7 games before he leads them to a World Series win ...

Your bold prediction is coming true!

UInforzenCavemanDH said...

As I and every other Yankee fan says when we're down...come talk to me in August and then we'll see who's prime to take the divison. This should make for an interesting few weeks of baseball coming up....if only the Bombers could stop losing to shitty divisional opponents (i'm looking at you Baltimore)

Anonymous said...

//Curt Schilling has hit the wall. He's done. He should've went out a hero after the sock thing, but he's too much of a moron to do that. David Ortiz is hurt. His numbers are terrible, but his clutchness helps that team out big-time. He's going to need some surgery, though, which will either screw them for about 2 to 3 weeks now, or screw them the last month of the season when he can't put any of that Mo Vaughn-like fat on his front foot ... Their best pitcher - Beckett - is due for some blisters. Their second best pitcher is a rookie, who is going to start getting TAGGED in games now that people have seen him a few times. The rest of their staff is a cancer-survivor who was no damned good last season, this rookie with the funny name, and a knuckle-baller who's been rocked his last few outings ...//

Jesus Christ do you even watch BASEBALL let alone the Red Sox?

Anonymous said...

Not completely nuts... baseball is a game that will humble you quickly. But the odds are heavily in favor of the BoSox. I doubt NY will even sniff the division title. Their exposive lineup isn't enough to make up for their shaky old pitching. Pridiction: Boston doesn't have a losing streak more than 3 games the rest of the way and wins the division by 5 games.

gjdodger said...

UInforzenCavemanDH...did you also say that when the Yankees went 12 years without seeing the postseason in the 60's and 70's, and 15 years in the 80's and '90's? Does "Yankees Fan" mean "bereft of logic, and merely assuming the Pinstripers are going to win, just because they're the Pinstripers"? Anyhow, yeah, I agree; New York is going to overtake Boston. The comments about the Yanks being better than their record rings true; using the largely discredited Pythagorean measure, they should have 53 wins, not 47. And Boston is sinking, fast.

Ghost of Carl Monday said...

it's a bold prediction, but everyone was saying that when the lead was at 8 games about a month ago. The Yankees are good enough on offense to win any game, but that is usually knocked out by the pitching, which has been knocked around all year. And the schedules favor anyone else the rest of the way, as NY gets Anaheim, Boston, Cleveland and Detroit. The Sox? 12 games against Tampa Bay.

Anonymous said...

As I Yankee fan, I want the Wild Card this year. Since it's inception we've seen too many crappy teams sneak in via the wild card and win the World Series (1997 & 2003 Marlins, 2002 Angels, and of course the 2004 RedSox). Maybe it's our turn to win the series the way Bud Selig reinvented it to be. All that needs to be done is an 11-8 record in the post season and title #27 is ours.

The Zoner said...

I read you too much to say you are nuts, but I definitely don't agree.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Red Sox have it. Yankees don't.

Eric said...

Nuts? No, not nuts. I've been waiting for and fearing the mid-season Yankee resurgence since April. However, the schedule does not favor a Bronx AL East title.

neonwattagelimit said...

My gut still says the Yanks won't prevail. They'll get close enough to make things interesting, but wind up with 90 or 92 wins while falling short of the postseason by two to five games. Your prediction isn't crazy, though.

I'd like to discuss that Yankee fan's contention about "crappy teams sneaking in via the Wild Card" for a sec, 'cause that is really NOT the case. To wit:
'97 Marlins were a pretty good team. They had lousy ownership, but there have been far worse World Champs.
'02 Angels were also legit. They won 99 games and were one of the best teams in baseball that year.
'03 Marlins I'll grant you, that team was a fluke.
'04 Sox were a great team. They had the best pythag. record in baseball and were a more well-rounded team than that year's Yankees. In fact, I'll go so far to say that they are the second-or-third best World Champ of the Wild Card era (after the '98 Yanks and maybe the '95 Braves).

I don't understand why the Wild Card gets so much hate. Most of the worst playoff teams recently ('06 Cards, '05 Padres) were division champs. Often the Wild Card has the second-best record in the league, and there were a lot of very good teams in the pre-Wild Card era that missed out because they were in the wrong division ('93 Giants).

Kind of an off-topic rant, yes, but it needed to be said.

grittysquirrels said...

No, you're not crazy. You're just willing to say what everybody who isn't a Yankees fan is afraid of.

We all know the push is coming, just trying not to think about it.

I would absolutely lovefor the Red Sox to beat out the Yanks this season but obviously when you have a team that loaded with a record like they have you know that they are going to turn it around and have the perpencity for a huge run.

Kevin Hayward said...

The Red Sox definitely have to feel the Yankees breathing down their necks at this point.

The Brewers have arguably more to be concerned about with the red-hot Cubs, especially now that it looks like Sheets will be out for a while.

There's a lot of baseball left to play, and either one of these races could go either way.

Anonymous said...

I think you are right! The Yankees look better now than early in the season, everything you said is on target, they should win it all!

Anonymous said...

As a yankee fan married to a red sox fan, I can say that after reading the comments there is one constant, the yankees fans love their team, at all times, we don't fear loss, we realize we have a great team, we could lose the next 5 years in a row and no one would haave the rings that we do. I am not prone to running up to random sox fans all done up in sox attire and shouting "you're on the wrong side, I mean, what "side" the side where people boo Damon who was once their chosen one??? I would love Jeter if he became a bsox player, I am proud of my team, I admire their ability to be great year after year, they are never an embarassment, and I try never to be an embarassement to them by being a "crazy" fan. Sorry, but I know that the Yankees can win the AL East again this year. I feel confindent that they are playing strong, and want the win, and will have it all.

Anonymous said...

Your bold prediction...coming true.
Yankees sliced down lead & are about to take the division title.... GO YANKEES GO...
Its awesome year for Yankees fans..coming far behind from & ....getting division title...

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