Thursday, July 26, 2007

Thursday Debate: Who is going to win the NL West?

We have a little feature on here called Thursday Debate... today we look at who is going to win the NL West.

For the record, the standings currently look like this:

LA Dodgers: 56-46, -
SD Padres: 54-46, 1 GB
Arizona Diamondbacks: 54-48, 2 GB
Colorado Rockies: 51-50, 4.5 GB
SF Giants: A long way back

So it would appear to be a 4-team race right now and should wind up being one of the most interesting stories as we wind down the year. At the All-Star break I was pretty strongly on the Padres bandwagon to win the division, but now I'm a lot less sure.

First off let me say that even though Arizona is right in the race, I stand by my thoughts that they will slowly drop out. They've just had great luck in 1-run games, and that doesn't tend to hold up. Their pythagorean record is 48-54, which suggests that they should be closer to San Fran than to the top of the division. They might continue to overplay the pythagorean record if The Big Unit can stay healthy and some of their young guys can start hitting better, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I also don't think the Rockies have much of a chance. They've played well, but they are what they are... a .500 team. They have a nice, young core, but I don't see them competing with the Dodgers or Padres.

Which leaves those 2 teams... I still think it is a 2-team race between the Dodgers and Padres. Both teams are very solid, and either of them could win the Wildcard if they don't win the division. The Dodgers are obviously 1 game up in the standings, while the expected records (based on run differential) suggests the Padres are a little bit better.

I think this is a race that will come down to just a couple of games between them... I wouldn't put any money on it because I think any type of injury of string of bad luck can change the tide. The teams are pretty even. However, if I had to choose, I would stick with the Padres for now... their pitching is a little better, and I think their lineup is getting better (and the addition of Bradley should help. So I'll take San Diego, but I'm not too confident about it right now.

Who do you think will win the NL West?


Who will win the NL West?
LA Doders
SD Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
  

11 comments:

Signal to Noise said...

It pains me to do so, but I have to go with the Dodgers. I think their younger hitters can explode if Grady Little will make sure to put them in the games more often. Matt Kemp and James Loney should not be riding pine.

Stefan Ming said...

I got the Dodgers. The Padres offense has a tough time producing runs. But I'll take them in the wild-card

rstiles said...

Unless the Dodgers get another starter before the trading deadline, I have to go with the Padres....Peavy and Young are too good....plus Maddux and Wells are vets....

Sanchez said...

I voted for the 'Doders'.

Sorry, I just had to bring that up 'cause it looks so funny!

Anonymous said...

Dodgers are the best team in the MLB, we have great fans, really Los Angeles has great fans we just need to stay up. For example, last week in Los Angeles an associate of mine wanted to watch the Dodgers, so I tried to get him front seats, guess what everything was sold out that show how great our fans are. The prices were really crazy though 2 times the face value. Anyhow I end up getting them face value in the end using this free comparison tickets site through this link
Dodgers tickets
http://www.ticketwood.com/mlb/LosAngeles-Dodgers-Tickets/index.php
Anyhow I though this is something would interest you, GO DODGERS!!!
God bless Baseball

The Big Picture said...

padres for two reasons: chris young and jake peavey.

pitching will be the factor...and the best bullpen in baseball will also help.

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