Minnesota Vikings Draft Analysis

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off of a disappointing end to the 2010 season. Despite a great record and a high-powered offense, they came up just short in the NFC Championship game, losing to the New Orleans Saints in OT. They played well enough to win, but just made a few crucial mistakes that caused them to lose.

Heading into the offseason, there were a few different holes that they needed to address. One was depth at CB, especially with Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield going through injury problems. Another was depth at RB, as Chester Taylor was not resigned, and instead went to the Chicago Bears. Last, they needed to look at the offensive line, and get more depth to challenge the starters for playing time.

They traded down out of the first round, but then were able to add Chris Cook out of Virginia to try to beef up the secondary. He projects to be a cornerback, but he can likely also play a little of bit of safety if they need him to. They hope he will challenge for a nickel role, and has the size to eventually be a starting cornerback in the NFL. They should be able to give him time to develop, and perhaps contribute on special teams.

Their second round pick was much more well known and accomplished in college, and that was Toby Gerhart, a RB out of Stanford. He is very versatile, and should be a nice complement to Adrian Peterson, as they hope that he can fill the void left by Chester Taylor. They would like him to be a solid pass catcher out of the backfield, good blocker on third down, and give Peterson the occasional rest by getting some carries. He seems to know his role well, and looks like he will be a nice extra piece of the offense for the Vikings.

Their next pick was Everson Griffen, a DE from USC. This was not a position of need, but he fell a lot farther than expected, and so the Vikings simply saw him as the best player available, and thought he would provide nice value for them, The rest of their draft was not filled with many big names, but simply guys they hope can compete for roster spots at WR, OL, and LB. It will be interesting to see if any of them stick. However, this draft will be measured by how well Toby Gerhart and Chris Cook play for the Vikings.

NFL Power Rankings Week 3

With 2 weeks of the NFL season under our belt (after the Monday night game), it is time to take a look at some NFL power rankings. Here are my top 10 in the NFL after 2 weeks of play.

1. Baltimore Ravens
The offense has finally caught up (and perhaps even surpassed) the defense. Joe Flacco looks like a future star in the NFL (he is very close already), and their trio of running backs is making the running game very dangerous. Plus, they still have Ray Lewis leading the defense, and he is still making huge plays.

2. New York Giants
After an impressive victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the first game of their new stadium, the Giants passing game doesn't look like it's missed a beat without Plaxico Burress. The D-Line is still as deep and talented as any in the NFL, and if Eli Manning can play like he did in week 2 the offense will be one of the most balanced in the NFL.

3. New Orleans Saints
As we knew heading into the season, the offense is extremely explosive. Drew Brees nearly broke the single season passing record last season, and he might have another crack at it this year. he already has 9 TD passes through 2 games. The Saints are averaging a whopping 46.5 PPG, and obliterated a pretty good Eagles defense on Sunday. If the Saints D can hold u, they could be Super Bowl contenders.

4. Minnesota Vikings
They have looked good but not great through 2 games. They've struggled out of the gate against both Cleveland and Detroit, trailing by three at halftime each game. But neither was in doubt as the second half closed. Adrian Peterson is looking like an all-time great RB with runs like this, and the defense is playing attacking football.

5. New York Jets
The Jets have been one of the surprise teams of the NFL, going 2-0 while opening up against potential playoff teams in Houston and New England. If you were into NFL betting you probably could have made a lot of money betting that through 2 games the Jets would be allowing 8.0 PPG and no defensive touchdowns allowed (the only TD scored against them was on special teams. Matt Sanchez looks to be carrying on the recent trend of successful, young NFL quarterbacks.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Reed? After making the game-winner in OT the week before, he missed two 4th quarter FGs which could have potentially won the game for Pittsburgh in the Windy City. Instead, he missed wide left on both, and the Steelers lost to drop to 1-1. They have a lot of concerns about the running game and offensive line, but this defense is still pretty special, especially when Troy Polamalu gets back. Obviously we have not heard the last from the defending champions.

7. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts seem to be flying a little more under the radar than usual, which is a little strange. There are a little more question marks at receiver, but Peyton Manning is still the quarterback. If they can get the tandem of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown up and running effectively, the offense will again be one of the best in the NFL.

8. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan has shown that there will be no sophomore slump, as he's establishing himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the game already. The Falcons are 2-0 and looking every bit the playoff team they were a season ago. The revamped defense is looking much improved, turning in good performances against Miami and Carolina, two teams that were very good a season ago.

9. New England Patriots
It is way too soon to panic for a franchise that employs both Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck, but something is not quite right for the Pats. They have no running game, Brady is throwing all day without a ton of success (100 throws in two games), the defense is not pressuring the QB, and they could very easily be 0-2 right now. At the very least, the AFC East will be more of a race than perhaps some people expected heading into the season.

10. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are one of 9 undefeated teams after week 2 (not sure a lot of sports betting was done for that!), which merits inclusion in the top 10, even though I'm not sure they're really better than teams like the Cowboys, Packers, or Bears. At the very least, Frank Gore showed that Adrian Peterson will at least have a challenger in the rushing title race. The 49ers and Vikings play in Week 3's only matchup of undefeated teams.

What are your thoughts? What order would you change?

Adrian Peterson TD Run vs. Cleveland Browns

Just in case you haven't seen this spectacular run from the best RB in the NFL.

How did Brett Favre look?

Tonight we got our first real extended look at Brett Favre since he joined the Minnesota Vikings, as he played the first half plus one series against the Houston Texans. A week ago, he played in 2 series and completed 1 of 4 passes against the Kansas City Chiefs. From all accounts, the offense was very rusty with Favre last week, as he had only been with the team for a couple days.

Things looked much more comfortable for Favre and the Vikings against the Texans, as Favre completed 13 of 18 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. He was making good decisions, and making throws putting the Vikings many playmakers in position to make plays.

With guys like Adrian Peterson (who had a 75 yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage), Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin, the Vikings have lots of guys that can make plays. Defenses have a lot of guys they will have to focus on, and that could lead to some big plays if Favre can get the ball in their hands, which he looked much more comfortable doing tonight. That trend should continue as they get more reps together and the QB and WRs can get a better sense of what the others are going to do.

The biggest thing was touched on by Adam Schefter at halftime... Favre didn't make mistakes. He is the NFL's all-time leader in interceptions, and has a tendency to try and force plays when nothing is there. He can't do that this year if the Vikings are just going to be successful, as he needs to just let the defense and running game lead the team, and take whatever the opposing defense is going to give him. He was able to do that here.

The Vikings didn't have a lot of success down the field... Favre aired it out one time to Jaymar Johnson, but nothing came of it. Again, that is stuff that tends to happen when they have more practice time together, so we will just have to see how that develops.

All in all, a successful showing from Favre and the Vikings. He looked a lot more comfortable this week, and should look even better with a couple more weeks of practice left before the season opener against the Cleveland Browns.

NFC North Predictions

The NFC North was a division that experienced a lot of change in the offseason. In 2008, it was considered a pretty weak division when the Minnesota Vikings won it, but in 2009 it appears to be much stronger, with 3 teams battling for supremacy. It should be one of the most intriguing division races in the NFL.

The cellar will again be occupied by the Detroit Lions, but they should be much improved. Of course, it is impossible not to improve on their 0-16 season, but that's beside the point. The biggest change is at the top, with Jim Schwartz as the new head coach. After coming over from the Tennessee Titans, he is attempting to instill a new attitude in the franchise. A big part of that will be Matthew Stafford, the number 1 pick in the NFL Draft, a QB with a ton of physical tools, who will undoubtedly see the field at some point this season.

The Green Bay Packers should be much improved, as they were one of the youngest teams in the NFL last season. Aaron Rodgers should be more comfortable in the passing game, and that should make the passing game very potent. The biggest key for the Packers success will be how well they can transition to the 3-4 defense. Dom Capers is trying to make the change this season, and Green Bay will be in the hunt for the division crown if they can make the transition seamless.

There is a lot of excitement around the Chicago Bears, mostly due to the addition of quarterback Jay Cutler. He was acquired in a trade from the Denver Broncos, and gives the Bears an elite quarterback that they have not had for a long-time. While their receiving options are inexperienced, Cutler will make everyone on the offense better. If the defense can recapture its form from the Super Bowl team, then the Bears will be strong contenders for the NFC North title.

Last, there is the Minnesota Vikings, who will be looking to repeat and make it back to the playoffs. The biggest change, of course, is the late addition of Brett Favre. After numerous struggles at the quarterback position over the past few season, Brad Childress is hoping that the 40 year-old Favre can bring stability to the most important position in football. He will have plenty of options, with Adrian Peterson, Bernard Berrian, and Percy Harvin to gather the attention of opposing defenses. This offense, in addition to one of the best defenses in football, should be enough to repeat in the division, in my mind.

So the NFC North will be one of the most interesting and competitive divisions in football, with the Vikings, Bears, and Packers all looking like legitimate contenders. I think the Minnesota Vikings will repeat as division champions, but opinions are varied. It will be fun to see how things turn out.

2009 NFL Draft Thoughts

Some miscellaneous thoughts on the NFL Draft that was...

- As a Vikings fan, I do like the pick of Percy Harvin at 22 in round 1. Yes, there are obviously a plethora of character concerns. He tested positive at the Combine for marijuana (meaning he is either really dumb or has a serious problem), and there have been some other concerns in the past. However, he is a top 10 talent, and has the explosiveness to make a huge difference. With a veteran team and now veteran coach, hopefully that will be able to quell some of the character issues. If that's the case, he adds another option for either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels (along with Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, and Visanthe Schiancoe), which should help the offense come closer to matching the defense, which was excellent in 2008. If that's the case, the Vikings could take the next step.

- I'm not saying anything new when I say this... but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems a lot like Troy Williamson... fast, suspect hands, limited college productivity... let's just say I was scared before the draft that the Vikings might take him at #22.

- Have to love what the hated Packers did on day 1... BJ Raji and Clay Matthews should immediately help a bad defense.

- NFL Draft grades are so stupid... seriously, it takes at least a few years to determine that. Second, it generally rewards those teams that have a lot of picks. Not that draft grades matter even one iota in the grand scheme of things, it just irks me for some reason to see them... like anyone has any idea how good a team drafted one day after the draft? If they really did, then why is the draft always so unpredictable?

- I think Mark Sanchez will be the best QB from this draft... Stafford has amazing physical tools but he has never been as consistent of a college player as you'd hope to see. Sanchez doesn't have the game experience of Stafford but I like his toughness and consistency. And I'm not a big Josh Freeman guy.

- Love what Baltimore did getting Michael Oher at 23... great value there. And I really like the Jags, who had an awful offensive line last year, getting tackles with their first 2 picks in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton.

- Crabtree at 10... I'm with everyone else in that I love the pick. He should be a solid starter very early on in his career and will be a great help to whoever eventually becomes the QB in San Francisco.

What were your thoughts?

Thoughts on the Vikings Pickup of Sage Rosenfels

The Vikings picked up Sage Rosenfels from the Houston Texans for a 4th round pick last week, which drew some not-so-inspired reactions from Vikings fans. Rosenfels is not a star QB, has not proven long-term consistency in the NFL, and is turnover-prone at times. For fans hoping for a Kurt Warner or Matt Cassel, Rosenfels is a disappointment.

But I like the move.

Rosenfels is an accurate QB, which a career completion percentage of over 60% for his career and around 65% for the past 2 years. With Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerrotte last year, accuracy was not the forte of Vikings QBs, and receivers couldn't be really sure about where the ball was going to end up. Rosenfels is accurate and can make some plays down the field.

Most of all, he wouldn't be asked to do a whole lot. The Vikings offense is obviously based around Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, and all the Vikings need is a QB that will be able to take advantage of all of the attention paid to the RBs. Jackson and Frerrotte were able to do that in stretches last year, but not consistently. Rosenfels has shown the ability to be more consistent in attacking defenses and finding weaknesses.

Of course, Rosenfels will have to beat out Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job, which is no certainty. Jackson played well in the regular season down the stretch, and no doubt Brad Childress would prefer that the younger, more athletically gifted player win the QB battle. Also, Rosenfels would have to be more careful with the ball and cut down on turnovers. With the running game and defense that the Vikings have, they don't need a QB that will be forcing things and taking unnecessary risks. Rosenfels has shown the tendency to do those things in his career, which he will need to cut back on.

If Rosenfels can cut down on turnovers and take advantages of the mismatches that AD provides, then it will be a great use of a 4th round pick by the Minnesota Vikings. If he works out, they will be able to take another step toward the Super Bowl. If it doesn't work out, then Brad Childress will likely lose his job and there will be wholesale changes for the Vikings next season.

No pressure Sage.

The impact of Jared Allen

My life was super busy around draft time, so I never really got a chance to comment on any of the happenings (much thanks to Steve F. for his excellent post on the draft)... plus, since the Vikings didn't have a first-round choice, I didn't feel as strong of a need to comment on things.

However, I'm quite ok with the Vikings not having a first-round pick, since it allowed them to acquire the NFL's sack leader in 2007, shoring up their biggest defensive weakness, which is consistently getting to the QB with the Front 4.

For the past couple of seasons, the Vikings have had a lot of trouble stopping the pass. When people hear that, they generally assume that this is because of a porous secondary. Not that the Vikings secondary is all-world, but I never really saw that as the main reason. In my mind, there are two big reasons why they have struggled so much against the pass:

- They were so dominant against the run that people just didn't try. This is fairly obvious and has been beaten to death, but a couple of years ago, the Patriots came into the Metrodome for a Sunday night game, and they came out and literally threw the ball on about their first 20 offensive plays. This sorta provided the blueprint, and teams have simply been following it ever since.

- They could never have a consistent pass rush on the Line. Pat Williams is a man against the run, but he's not going to be putting consistent pressure on the QB. Kevin Williams is great, but facing constant double teams on the inside. Which should have, in theory, left lots of room for the DEs to operate, but it didn't always work that way. The hodgepodge of guys like Brian Robison, Ray Edwards, Kenechi Udeze, Darrion Scott, etc. are all average at best (at least, at this point in their careers) at getting to the QB. Even with 1-on-1 matchups, there was never a consistent rush of any type for the front 4. Which means 1 of 2 things happened: either the Vikings had to bring pressure from the LBs which opened things up in the passing game, or the secondary had to cover guys for a really long time. Neither is optimal.

So, of course, it's not hard to see how much of an impact Jared Allen will bring to the Vikings defense. He's one of (if not the) best pass rushers in the NFL, and he's not going to slow down the run defense either. Offensive teams will have a real tough time figuring out how to block the Vikings Line... they'll feature 3 All-Pros... 3 guys that could legitimately get double teamed if they weren't playing with the other two. On the opposite side, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison both seem to be developing into solid pass rushers, and should benefit from the increased attention that teams will have to pay Jared Allen.

So with Allen the Vikings should continue to be dominant against the run while improving them greatly against the pass. His pressure off the edge will keep QBs up at night, and it will hide any problems in the secondary because they won't have to cover as long.

For years, the Vikings have been searching for a dominant pass rushing DE, expending first round pick after first round pick on them. Now, it appears as if they finally have their man in Jared Allen. With his past, it's certainly a risk. The financial commitment is large. But when you look at his potential impact on the defense and on the franchise, giving up only a first round pick and 2 third rounders seems like a bargain.

Watching this video, I have only one thought... is it football season yet?

NFC Playoff Picture

After the Vikings escaped with a win over the Chicago Bears Monday night, it appears things are slowly starting to take shape in the formerly muddled NFC playoff picture.

The only thing that we know for certain is that Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay will all be playing into January. Beyond that, it would appear that the Giants are safe at 9-5, but I'm not so sure. They are not playing well, and they have a tough schedule coming up: AT Buffalo, vs. New England. I think it is not at all out of the realm of possibility that the Giants lose 2 and a team like the Saints can get to 9-7 and push them out.

After that, the Vikings currently hold the 6th seed at 8-6, and thus they control their own destiny. In fact, if they beat Washington next week and New Orleans loses to Philadelphia, the Vikings will clinch a playoff berth.

AT 7-7, both the Redskins and Saints could make the playoff even if they finish 8-8, but more likely they must win out to have a chance. New Orleans hosts Philly next week and goes to Chicago in Week 17, while the Redskins go to Minnesota next week before hosting Dallas in Week 17. Looking at the schedules as well as at how well the teams are playing, I have a hard time seeing Washington making it in, but the Saints could certainly sneak in there.

Elsewhere, Carolina is technically alive (I believe) at 6-8, but they would have to win out and get a lot of help if they're going to make it. So basically they are done.

What are your thoughts on how things will play out? Personally, I think the Vikings will nab the 5th seed... they have 2 winnable games next week, and I have a hard time seeing the Giants winning out. After that, it would not at all shock me to see the Saints at 9-7 and in the playoffs, but I'll go with the odds and put the Giants as my 6th seed.

How do you think it will end up?

Adrian Peterson is pretty much my hero

Before the season, I said he would be the Rookie of the Year.
After the Bears game, I said he was the most explosive RB in the NFL.
That might have been selling him short.

I have watched the Vikings my entire life. There have been only two players that I get excited just when I think about what they can do on a football field... the first was Randy Moss, and now there is Adrian Peterson.

The numbers are obviously, but just a part of what makes him so special and so fun and exciting to watch. But let's start with the numbers, because then tend to be more tangible.

- He now holds the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards rushing in one game. He did this in his 8th NFL game.
- Everyone knew that he would be running the ball all day, and he still was able to rack up 253 yards in the 2nd half.
- Halfway through his rookie season he has 1,036 yards rushing. My simple math skills tell me that this would have him on pace for 2,072 yards for the season. The rookie record is 1,808 yards. The overall single season record is 2,105 yards.
- Peterson is the first rookie ever to have 2 200-yard rushing games in his rookie season.

More intangibly speaking, he is breathtaking to watch. The cuts, the speed, the power, the vision. It's all there.

He has the power to run the ball inside. There were concerns about his so-called upright running style in college... well, those concerns seem to be gone. He does not shy away from contact, he lowers his shoulder and goes through the defender. He is one of the strongest running backs in the League.

Then there is the speed. On one play on Sunday Shawne Merriman looked like he had him on contain to the outside, and Peterson just simply beat him to the corner. On many other plays he just outran the defense. On Sunday he had TD runs of 64 and 46 yards. He has been a big play machine. This is said about a lot of guys and it's not always necessarily true, but Peterson is truly a threat to take it all the way anytime that he touches the ball.

Best RB in the NFL? I think it might be tough to argue with that right now.

Adrian Peterson is the most explosive RB in the NFL

He may not be the best RB in the NFL yet, because he is not a great pass catcher or blocker... but I think that Adrian Peterson is already the most explosive RB in the NFL with the ball in his hands.

He single-handedly won it for the Vikings today (with a little help from Ryan Longwell). 20 carries for 224 yards and 3 TD. He also set up the game-winning FG with a long kick return. For the game, he had nearly 360 total yards on 25 touches (20 carries, 1 reception, 4 kick returns). Wow.

Through 5 games he now has 607 yards rushing, 4 TD, and 6.3 YPC. He's also got 10 receptions for 175 yards and a receiving TD. For good measure he also has 248 yards return yards. So by my calculations, through 5 career games, Adrian Peterson has 1030 total yards.

This is why I thought Adrian Peterson would be the Rookie of the Year.

Fantasy Football Sleeper: Mewelde Moore

If you have an extra roster spot on your roster teams, strongly consider picking up Mewelde Moore. Right now he's the 3rd string RB for the Vikings that has been inactive for 2 of their 4 games this year. But pay no attention to that. He could be the starting RB for the Bucs pretty soon.

The Vikings and Bucs have been in talks, and it's almost too logical. Moore is a FA after this year, and he won't get much (any?) playing time behind Chester Taylor and AD. Meanwhile, the Bucs are in the middle of a playoff race, and their top 2 RBs are hurt. A deal HAS to be done. My guess is that a deal eventually does get done (with the Bucs sending a 5th rounder).

When that happens and if Moore starts, he should be a solid fantasy option. As someone that has watched every one of his games, he's solid. He's not a great RB, but he's productive. He's not a burner, but he's shifty, surprisingly tough to bring down, and he catches the ball a ton out of the backfield (which is perfect for the TB offense).

In 4 years, he has a career 4.9 YPC. Some of that is in garbage time, sure, but that's still really good. Playing mostly part-time roles, he has almost 3 catches a game for his career. He can be even more productive in that area if he gets consistent playing time.

So trust me, if you have an extra roster spot, take a look at getting Mewelde Moore. It makes too much sense for a deal not to be made, and he should be really productive if he gets playing time.

NFL Week 1 Thoughts

Time to give my thoughts on what was a very, very solid mostly opening day action in the NFL.

Vikings 24, Falcons 3
You already know how I feel about this... this is how the Vikings are going to have to win football games this year. They played great defense (with a very good pass rush - 6 sacks - which was the achillies heel of the defense last year), and were able to run the football with success. Obviously I hope Chester Taylor isn't hurt, because the Vikings are going to need him, but Adrian Peterson made my Rookie of the Year pick look good, at least for one day.

Broncos 15, Bills 14
Obviously this isn't quite what I expected from Denver, given that I picked them to win the AFC West, but they did just barely get the job done. Statistically, Denver dominated the game. Cutler had over 3 times as many passing yards as Losman, and Denver had more than 50 yards rushing edge on Buffalo. However, Buffalo had the Special Teams edge... with a Roscoe Parrish TD, which kept the game in their favor until time expired. Which is all that matters.

Steelers 34, Browns 7
I expected the Steelers to dominate this game, though maybe not quite this much. Also as expected, the Browns QB woes will keep them from doing anything this year. Charlie Frye was abysmal (and replaced early in the game), and Derek Anderson wasn't much better, completing less than 50% of his passes. Brady Quinn, hope you're ready.

Packers 16, Eagles 13
Philly special teams, you have got to be kidding me. Two muffed punts... one that led directly to a Packer TD and the other that led to the game-winning FG (Mason Crosby is pretty good, by the way). Everyone knew the Packers defense was good, but they shut McNabb down, as he completed just 15 of 33 passes... whether that was because of the Packer defense or because McNabb just struggled, I didn't really see enough of the game to comment... anyone that watched a lot of it want to help me out here?

Panthers 27, Rams 13
This is definitely not what I expected. Marc Bulger had troubles, barely completing 50% of his passes, and Steven Jackson could not get it going either, fumbling twice. Meanwhile, after so many years of the Panthers being picked to have a chance to go to the Super Bowl, could they be flying under the radar? If they play defense and run the ball like they did today, then they are a very real threat to New Orleans in the South.

Patriots 38, Jets 14
It's always tough for me to watch Randy Moss play in another uniform, especially today, when it was just about vintage Randy Moss. Brady had lots of time in the pocket, and he made the most of it, completing 79% of his passes for nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs. I already can't wait for the AFC Playoffs.

Redskins 16, Dolphins 13 OT
Remember all that preseason talk about how Ronnie Brown hadn't won the job yet, and everyone just scoffed at it as just motivational tactics by Cam Cameron? Well, Brown didn't exactly light it up, with 11 carries for 32 yards (not that Jesse Chatman was any better). A great performance by the defense at home, and Miami doesn't have enough to get the win. It could be a long season in Miami. Their 2nd and 3rd leading receivers on the day were their starting RB and backup RB.

Titans 13, Jaguars 10
So much for that vaunted Jaguars running game. Maurice Jones-Drew had 7 carries for 32 yards, and Fred Taylor had 6 carries for 16 yards. Are you kidding me? 13 carries combined for those 2 guys? Garrard was statistically solid, but the offense has to run through the 2 good RBs. Otherwise we could be seeing this result a lot for the Jags.

Texans 20, Chiefs 3
It's really going to be a long season in Kansas City. The offense is just simply atrocious. A bad QB (whoever they throw out there), bad WRs, a slowing down Tony Gonzalez, and a mediocre O-Line. Larry Johnson isn't going to get much help. On the other side, I'm really excited to see what Andre Johnson will do this year now that there are other talented guys around him. 142 yards and TD for him in the opener.

Lions 36, Raiders 21
I thought the Raiders defense was good? Kitna had 2 INTs, but he also completed 75% of his passes for 289 yards and 3 TDs. And yeah, Calvin Johnson is pretty good. For the Raiders, they at least have to be encouraged by the resurgent LaMont Jordan. 159 total yards and a score for him.

Chargers 14, Bears 3
New year, same Rex Grossman. He was inconsistent, threw 1 INT (not entirely his fault) and had one play where the ball just slipped out of his hands. Vintage Rex Grossman right there. Also, I know the Chargers eventually wound up with 14 points, but that Bears defense is really, really good. No one holds LDT to 25 yards on 17 carries. That's ridiculous.

Seahawks 20, Bucs 6
Nothing real surprising here, as the Seahawks are just clearly the better team. The Bucs took a 6-0 lead after the 1st, but it was Seattle after that. Now a whole lot to say about it.

Cowboys 45, Giants 35
More than anything, the one thing that I took away from this game was... that both secondaries suck. Eli Manning and Tony Romo are good, but they shouldn't be throwing for a combined nearly 660 yards and 8 TDs. On a positive note, we did get a "Hefty Lefty" sighting, and that's always exciting. For my fantasy team's sake, I hope Brandon Jacobs' injury isn't serious.

So far in my picks against the spread this week I am 8-5-1... a nice start in my quest to finish above .500.

What stuck out most to you?

SKOL VIKINGS

I'll have more complete NFL thoughts later, but for now, let me bask in the 24-3 defensive domination of Atlanta.


19 carries, 103 yards
1 reception, 60 yards, 1 TD

1-0.

NFL Week: Playoff and Season Predictions

After giving my complete NFC Predictions and AFC Predictions, it's time for my playoff and awards predictions. Because such is the natural order of things.


AFC PLAYOFFS
(3) Denver over (6) Baltimore
(5) San Diego over (4) Pittsburgh

(1) New England over (5) San Diego
(3) Denver over (2) Indianapolis

(1) New England over (3) Denver


NFC PLAYOFFS
(3) Philadelphia over (6) Minnesota
(4) St. Louis over (5) Seattle

(1) New Orleans over (4) St. Louis
(3) Philadelphia over (2) Chicago

(1) New Orleans over (3) Philadelphia


SUPER BOWL
New England over New Orleans

Looking things over, I think that, like last year, there are probably at least 3-4 teams in the AFC better (or at least on par) with the best team in the NFC. I think New Orleans is probably the best team in the NFC right now, but I think New England, Indianapolis, Denver, and San Diego are probably more complete teams than them.

MVP: Tom Brady - Finally has some offensive weapons which will help with his numbers. The fact that he'll be playing on the preseason Super Bowl favorite helps too.

Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson - Already been over this!

Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin - I think he'll do very well as a head coach, making Pittsburgh a surprise team in the AFC.


One final note of housecleaning... I am bringing back my picks against the spread this year (those will all come tomorrow), but since I want to make a pick on the Thursday game, I'll do it here. I am taking Indianapolis -6 in this ballgame. It should be extremely entertaining, but I see the Colts winning by about 10 on their home turf.

NFL Week: NFC Predictions

Yesterday I gave my AFC Predictions, so today it is time to move onto the NFC.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6

I like the Eagles a lot this year. Everyone forgets this, but Donovan McNabb was having a great year last year before he got hurt. With Brian Westbrook more developed as a runner, and Kevin Curtis added to an improving Reggie Brown in the WR spots, the offense should be solid. I like the Eagles to return to the top of the East.

2. Dallas Cowboys: 9-7

After Bill Parcells could never quite lead Dallas to take the next step, it's Wade Phillips' turn. Romo being under center all year will help, and the offense should be very solid with multiple options at RB and WR. But there is still some concerns defensively, especially in the secondary.

3. Washington Redskins: 7-9

I'm not sure what it is, but I'm just not that high on the Redskins. I like Jason Campbell and think he will eventually be a solid QB, but I don't know if he is quite ready to it. The WR corps is mediocre, and I'm just not that big on Joe Gibbs the 2nd time around. I don't know.

4. New York Giants: 5-11
I think it might be a long year in New York. They were 8-8 last year, and are now without Tiki Barber, who has been the key cog in their offense for years. I like Brandon Jacobs, but he cannot do all of the things that Tiki did. This places added pressure on Eli, and I'm not sure how that will work out. Plus, I think pretty soon the whole team is going to hate Tom Coughlin.

NFC NORTH

1. Chicago Bears: 11-5

I have some questions about (namely Rex Grossman), but they are clearly the best and most talented team in the division. The defense should again be dominant, and if Cedric Benson stays healthy, the offense should be good enough to win a lot of games.

2. Minnesota Vikings: 9-7

I went over this a couple of days ago... basically, good defense, great running game... success.

3. Green Bay Packers: 7-9

The Packers will be a solid defensive team, but I have some concerns. Brett Favre has been regressing, making worse and worse decisions as his arm gets a little worse, and that doesn't bold well. The running game will be inconsistent, meaning Favre will be throwing the ball a ton. He's liable to make a lot of mistakes.

4. Detroit Lions: 6-10
The offense should be very explosive, but the defense will struggle. I think they'll be putting a ton of points on the board (which Mike Martz offenses tend to do), but they won't be able to stop anyone. That's a problem.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints: 11-5

I'm not huge on the Saints this year, I just don't see another team in this division that will challenge them. The offense will again be very explosive, but can the defense hold up again?

2. Carolina Panthers: 7-9

If everything goes right, the Panthers could be very dangerous. Just like last year. They have some talent on both sides of the ball, but I don't see Delhomme being able to lead them back to the playoffs.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-11

Just not big on them this year. Yes, they picked up Jeff Garcia, but how much is he really going to help? I know the Eagles did well last year, but that was like a perfect situation for him. I'm not sure how well he will do when asked to do more. I'm just not a big fan of their offensive talent, and the defense is getting older.

4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-11
Bobby Petrino will be good in the long haul, but he's in a tough spot here. New QB, new system, lots of distractions... it could be a tough first year for him.

NFC WEST

1. St. Louis Rams: 10-6

I really like the Rams this year... I just think their offense will be so versatile. They have a great QB, lots of receiving options (Holt, Bruce, Bennett, McMichael), one of the best RBs in the game, and a very good backup RB/FB (Brian Leonard). They'll put a ton of points on the board, and their defense should be helped by the drafting of Adam Carriker, who has looked really good this preseason.

2. Seattle Seahawks: 9-7

The Seahawks are sort of like the constant in the NFC... every year they're basically the same, and every year they're contending for the division title. At least that's how it seems to me. I don't see a reason why things will be different this year.

3. San Francisco 49ers: 9-7

Like everyone else, I like the Niners this year. I love what Mike Nolan is doing, building an excellent young core for this team. A lot of this season depends on the continued development of Alex Smith... if he can become a consistently above average QB, the Niners will have a great chance at winning the division. I suspect they're still one more year away.

4. Arizona Cardinals: 6-10
New coach, good skill players, bad O-Line, bad defense... still the same old Cardinals.

Your thoughts? What would you change?

NFL Week: Why the Vikings will be better than people think

All of this week I will be focusing on the NFL and giving my previews and picks, since the season starts Thursday (with what should be a fantastic game).

But first, let me talk about my favorite team, the Minnesota Vikings, and why I think they will be a lot better than anyone expects. As in, competing for a Wildcard spot good.

First, the defense. It should be really good, and that starts everything. Last year it was historically good against the run, and mediocre against the pass for a couple of reasons. One, they had no pass rush. The D-Line simply did not get pressure on the QB. This year, Ray Edwards will be starting right away, and he has the potential for double-digit sacks. He's explosive, fast, and quick off the edge. Also contributing on the Line is Brian Robison and Erasmus James, both of which were not here last year (Robison is a rookie, James was hurt). Leslie Frazier also really likes to blitz, which will add pressure because the LBs are pretty quick.

Another problem was Fred Smoot, who is now departed. He was really bad last year. Cedric Griffin will be starting, and rookie Marcus McCauley is looking really good as a nickelback. I think they will be better at getting to the passer, which could turn this in a top 5-10 defense in the NFL.

Offensively, there are concerns, but there is talent.

Things all start with the running game, which is good. The O-Line should be improved with a year to gel... the McKinnie-Hutchinson-Birk part of the Line could be the best LT-LG-C combo in the League, at least on paper. From the RB standpoint, there is a lot of talent. Chester Taylor had over 1200 yards last year (as well as being dependable receiver), and he won't even be the most talented RB in Minnesota. That would be Adrian Peterson, my pick for the Rookie of the Year.

That just means that QB Tarvaris Jackson needs to keep defenses honest, and I really think he can do that. He's very unproven, which is why the Vikings are being rated so low (and it's hard to argue with people who say he is raw), but he has improved immensely. It was only preseason, but he was making good, quick reads. He has a strong arm, and has the mobility to make plays with his feet. There will definitely be ups-and-downs (in no small part because the WR corps is inexperienced and unproven), but I love his talent.

With the defense and running game, Tarvaris Jackson needs only to be average to make this a competitive football team. I really think he can do that. I think the Vikings will be a very tough team to play, and will be in the hunt for the Wilcard.

Am I delusional? Do I have a reason to be so optimistic? I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Vikings' chances this season.

The Adrian Peterson Run

You already know why I think Adrian Peterson will be the NFL Rookie of the Year... but if you need more convincing, or if you just want to see the reason why Vikings' fans are so very excited about this guy, watch this video (if you haven't already):



W-O-W! Watching that gives me goosebumps.

NFL Prediction: Adrian Peterson will be the Rookie of the Year

I don't know how this matches up to some other bold predictions I've made, and it may just be blatant homerism, but I'm putting in my prediction right now that Adrian Peterson will be the NFL Rookie of the Year as long as he stays healthy.

I know, he is in a running back by committee system along with Chester Taylor. But just watch this play and tell me who you think will be getting more carries in this offense. Chester Taylor does a lot of things well, but Adrian Peterson is just an amazing runner. He's fast, he's quick, he's powerful... he's got more talent than most running backs in the NFL have. It's only preseason, but Peterson had carries for 70 yards against the Jets, and looked VERY impressive doing it.

But still, both guys will get carries. I understand that. But I do think that as the Vikings get closer to the goal line, Peterson will start to get more carries and more TDs. He's just got a nose for the endzone, and he has the power to get in there. He scored 41 touchdowns in college. Also, as the year goes on, I think Peterson will start to get more and more carries, as his talent will just be too difficult to keep off the field.

There is also some concern about his health, as he was bothered by some injuries in college. Obviously this is a concern, but I think the fact that he won't have to play every down right away will help. While the presence of Chester Taylor will hurt him a little in terms of overall numbers, it will help him stay fresh.

So what do you think? Can Adrian Peterson be the Rookie of the Year, or is this just wishful thinking on my part?

Skol Vikings Audo

I'm off to move back to college this weekend, so I'm finishing up packing, so I'll just point to this link to audio for Skol, Vikings (which, if you're not a Vikings fan, won't mean anything to you). This is especially cool because I'm even more optimistic than usual after the Vikings preseason pounding of the Jets!

It's definitely a great fight song!

Skol Vikings Audio

Skol Vikings! Let's win this game
Skol Vikings! Honor your name.
Go get that first down
Then get a touchdown
Rock 'em, sock 'em, FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT! FIGHT!
Go Vikings, run out the score, you'll hear us yell for more!
V-I-K-I-N-G-S
Skol Vikings, let's go!