NBA Playoffs Round Two Predictions

With the second round underway, some predictions:

Bulls over Hawks in 6 games
The Hawks won Game 1, but I think the Bulls are simply the better team. Derrick Rose is the best player in the series, and the Bulls are the better defensive team. When you have the best player and better defense, you're usually going to win.

Heat over Celtics in 5
Suddenly the Celtics are showing their age, and they seem to be lacking a true identity ever since they traded away Kendrick Perkins. The Heat are still not firing at all cylinders (maybe next year when they are more used to playing together), but they are easily playing well enough to win this series.

Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
The Grizzlies dominated game 1, but I am not sure they quite have the firepower to bea the Thunder 4 times. The interior defense of OKC is too good to get abused by Zach Randolph like that every game. The Grizz have solid perimeter defenders to slow down Kevin Durant, but he is too good to be contained.

Lakers over Mavericks in 7
Dallas was game 1 in LA, giving them an upper hand early. But I like the Lakers to win, as they are too good down low. Tyson Chandler is as good as they come defensively down low, but he needs to more help, and I am not sure he will get quite enough on the defensive end. Pau Gasol needs to be huge in this series, and I think he can.

NBA Preseason MVP Candidates

LeBron James captured his first NBA MVP title in the 2008-2009 title, cementing his status as the best basketball player in the world right now. He has to be high up on a list of candidates heading into the 2009-10 season as well. His Cavaliers are expected to be one of the top contenders for the title this season, and being on a successful team is key to winning the award. James is the most athletically gifted player ever in the NBA. He can finish better than anyone else, as well as being an excellent rebounder, passer, and defender. With each passing season, it seems like another weakness in his game has been shored up, so it will be interesting to see how he can improve on last season.

Kobe Bryant is another annual contender for the award, as he will be playing on the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, a team that is the favroties to repeat. Bryant has lost some of the explosiveness of his younger days, but he makes up for it with craftiness and smarts. He has a great jumper, and is very creative about getting it off in many different situations. He has started to share the ball more and more, highlighting his skills as a passer. The numbers, star power, and wins will be there, which is why you can't count otu Kobe Bryant for the MVP award.

Dwyane Wade was magnificent last season, leading an otherwise bad Miami Heat team to the NBA playoffs. He puts his body on the line every night, and no guy is better at getting to the hole and drawing contact. He is a great teammate, getting others involved (over 7 assists per game last season) and playing staunch defense. If his body can withstand the pounding that he takes, he will be high up on the list of MVP candidates.

Dwight Howard continues to grow every year, and his Magic team will again be one of the strongest contenders in the East. Howard is the best rebounder and shot blocker in the NBA, and his offensive game seems to get a little bit better every season. Howard is an athletic freak down low, with size, speed, and strength that you normally don't ever see for men his size. With a lot of help from teammates, Howard should put up huge numbers once again, and will likely lead the league in rebounds.

These are just four of the contenders for MVP. Though it is possible that someone like Chris Paul or Kevin Durant will sneak into the race and garner some votes, it seems likely to me that as we embark on the 2009-10 season, the MVP will be one of these four guys.

NBA Conference Finals Thoughts

We are in the midst of two great conference finals matchups. In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic are knotted at 1 game apiece. In the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers lead the Denver Nuggets 2 games to 1.

First, a look at the East, which has been epic through 2 games. After Rashard Lewis won game 1 with a late 3-pointer, LeBron James answered with a buzzer beating 3 of his own, evening the series. Thoughts from this series:

- LeBron James, of course, has been ridiculously good. He is the best basketball player on the planet, and he's showing it through the first 2 games. After being almost unstoppable in game 1 (20/30 shooting? Are you serious?), he followed that up with 35 points and the aforementioned game-winner in game 2. With the defense focusing on him, he is shooting a high percentage, playing great defense, and getting good looks for his teammates.

- However, he can't do it on his own. In Game 21, Mo Williams had 19 points, but it took him 21 shots to do it. Delonte West only had 12 points in 46 minutes. Zydrunas Ilgauskas only had 12 points on 5/13 shooting. LeBron will get these guys lots of great looks, so they are going to need to hit shots.

- Dwight Howard needs to dominate for the Magic. The Cavaliers have nobody that can guard him (Zydrunas Ilgauskas is not even close to quick enough), so there is no reason for Howard to only have 10 points on 3/8 shooting. His average needs to be up in the 20s for the Magic to win this series.

- I love watching Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu play when they are firing at all cylinders. Great shooters, good handles, good passers... a fantastic wing combination.

- Courtney Lee is showing me some good offensive game a lot more quickly in his career than I thought he would.

- Still like the Cavs in this series... LeBron is simply too good. I'll go with Cavs in 6.

Then there is the West, where the Lakers victory on Saturday gave them a 2-1 series lead... all 3 games have been closely contested and have come down to the wire, where any of the games conceivably could have been won by either team. Thoughts:

- Kobe Bryant was a man in Game 3, carrying the Lakers down the stretch with 41 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 5 assists. Clutch 3 to put the Lakers up late and then lots of late free throws.

- Kenyon Martin with one of the worst inbounds passes I have seen to all but seal the fate of the Nuggets in game 3. Give credit to Lamar Odom for great defense on the ball out of bounds, but that was still an atrocious pass.

- Don't see how the Lakers can win an NBA title if they get as little contributions from their PGs as they did in game 23. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown basically added nothing to the table.

- Carmelo Anthony, where did you go in the 2nd half? With his disappearance and the struggle of JR Smith to score (he played well in other areas but didn't add much scoring the ball - 4/15 shooting), the Nuggets just didn't have enough offense.

- Well done Bird Man... 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks in 24 minutes. The man is an athletic specimen.

Hope you guys are enjoying these 2 series' as much as I am... it has been excellent so far, hope we can continue to have great basketball games!

NBA Opening Day Thoughts

I wasn't actually able to watch any of the games, but my observations based on highlights and box scores:

- Derrick Rose is really good. Obviously we know he's not a great shooter at this point, but when you get 9 assists, and 3 steals as a PG in your first game, you're doing something right. If only Mike D'Antoni had waited and taken the Bulls job instead of New York.

- When Tyrus Thomas came out of college I thought he was a poor man's cross between Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire, but he's never really played consistently the first 2 years. So I'm pretty excited to see what he'll do if he gets PT like he did tonight (41 mins). The results were encouraging... 15 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block. And he's still only 22. Crazy. Bulls could be better than everyone thinks.

- Joe Alexander, DNP Coach's Decision. Never good for a top 10 pick. (though maybe there's more to the story that I just don't know about)

- So the Celtics are still really good at defense. And Paul Pierce should probably be considered (if he isn't already) a top 5 NBA player, maybe top 3. But got to be concerned about Ray Allen if you're the Celts... he obviously showed signs of slowing down during the playoff run last year, and while it's only 1 game (against a good defensive team to boot), 8 points on 2/9 shooting in 41 minutes isn't exactly encouraging.

- I guess it's a little early to anoint Portland as a playoff team already. Anyone know why Greg Oden only played 13 minutes?

- As long as Lamar Odom remains content in his role at 6th man (obviously some skepticism here), Lakers certainly look like the team to beat on paper.

What did you notice?

"With no regard for human life!"

Thank you Kevin Harlan. I love that PBP call.

Anyway, Cavs tied the series up 2-2. My first question... the Celtics won 66 games this year? Really? For the second straight game, Boston just looked absolutely abominable offensively, with no flow, and nobody stepping up and making shots. They shot just 38.6% for the game, and only 3/14 from downtown.

None of the big 3 look like they're able to take over a game offensively... KG is far too passive, Paul Pierce has struggled, and Ray Allen continues to be almost a non-factor in this series (other than 1 quarter in this game). The difference between those guys and LeBron is that even when LeBron isn't shooting well, he is still such an incredible passer that he gets tons of open looks for other guys. Boston's three stars don't do that. So while James was again awful shooting the ball, his 13 assists were enough to propel Cleveland into a series-tying victory.

This series should also have put to rest any doubt in the Kevin Garnett vs. Tim Duncan debate. Both great players, but Duncan is a different player in the playoffs and in the 4th quarter. I know the supporting casts over their careers have been vastly different, but change them up and I don't think Garnett would have 4 rings.

As we have seen in the playoffs, home court has been huge, and as Charles Barkley has been saying, things go from game to game... so it will be interesting to see if Boston can get some offensive flow again back in Boston.

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

With what should be a great playoff season just about upon us, it's time to prognosticate, undoubtedly ending in horrible shame at my ignorance. But that's ok.

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
It's going to be strange to see the Hawks back in the playoffs, although I don't foresee their stay being too lengthy. The Hawks have talent and athleticism, but they're no match for the Celtics. The Celtics should be able to smother the Hawks defensively, leading to a quick, decisive victory.
BOSTON IN 4

(2) Detroit Pistons vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are a great story and I'll be rooting for them, but it's difficult seeing them match up with the Pistons in a 7-game series. The Pistons are a bit too strong defensively and efficient offensively. The Sixers have played about as well as anyone over the past couple of months, but Detroit in the playoffs is a completely different animal.
DETROIT IN 5

(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Toronto Raptors
I like the Raptors in an upset pick. I'm not sure the Magic and their players are really familiar being in this position, as a favorite in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how they handle it. The Raptors don't really have anyone to match up with Dwight Howard, but then the Magic don't have a good matchup for Chris Bosh. This should be a highly entertaining series.
TORONTO IN 7

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Washington Wizards
These clubs will meet up for the 3rd straight season, but this year should be a lot better than last. Now that the Wizards are healthy, they're a very dangerous club capable of putting up lots of points on the board. Meanwhile, the Cavs have the best player in the world. In round 1, I think LeBron wills his team to victory... as long as the game is close at the end, LeBron will win it for the Cavs.
CLEVELAND IN 7

What are your thoughts on round 1 of the East?

NBA MVP Pick

Since this has been the best MVP race in recent memory, and we should actually get a deserving winner (no offense Steve Nash), it's time to weigh in. Basically everyone's top 4 is the same in some order: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul. I'm not going to deviate from that formula, so I will just give my top 4. In reverse order.

4. Kobe Bryant - A lot of the talk lately seems to take it for granted that either Kobe or Chris Paul will be MVP, but in my book Kobe is 4th. Yes, he's been real good on a great team. He's a great player, but that doesn't mean that others haven't been a little greater. He is still a great scorer (even with the hurt finger), scoring over 28 PPG while shooting a respectable 46%. He's a solid rebounder and passer, but LeBron (comparing him since they play similar positions) is better in both areas. He's very good defensively, but not the consistently great like Kevin Garnett, and his defensive numbers don't match Chris Paul. Add it all up, and a great season for Kobe Bryant, but still only enough to merit 4th place.

3. Kevin Garnett - He has played less minutes this year so the numbers are down a bit, but it's impossible to deny his impact on the Celtics. He's the best defensive player in the game, and he has backed it up with wild efficiency on the offensive end. His shooting is up at 54%, highest in his career. He is the ultimate team player, sacrificing his numbers and shots for the greater good of the team. He is still a great rebounder and an excellent passer for his size. How the Celtics do in the postseason will determine whether this season was a success, but there is no denying that KG has been great in his first year for Boston.

2. Chris Paul - I put him just a tiny smidgen below LeBron, but he's certainly a great MVP choice. John Hollinger actually had him as his MVP and Most Improved Player, and that's a pretty good thought. In the blink of an eye Chris Paul has surpassed Steve Nash as the best PG in the NBA, and has become one of the best players. He's become a better shooter, upping his % to above 48% on the season. He's averaging over 21 PPG, and also finding time to dole out 11.6 APG and steal 2.7 balls per game. All while leading the most surprise team in the NBA to one of the top seeds in the West. What a player.

1. LeBron James - Today I was watching Sportscenter top plays with some friends, and LeBron James was #2 with some ridiculous coast-to-coast move followed by a thunderous dunk in traffic. Someone else said something about how that wasn't even that good. But then we realized, LeBron is just so good, so talented, so athletic, that he makes it all look easy. I mean, look at his numbers... 30 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, plus a more consistent defensive effort this season. No, his team's record is not as good as the other candidates, but that's so much his fault as it is that his teammates are simply not as good. But LeBron has been fantastic, and he gets my MVP vote. Once again, he's simply the best, most talented player in the NBA.

Who does your vote go too?

Thursday Debate: Midseason NBA MVP

We are about at the midway point of the NBA season, which means it's time for the ultimately worthless midseason awards. I'm going to focus on the MVP race, because I think it's the most interesting, and ultimately that is what matters.

Let's start off with apologies to guys like Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Chauncey Billups, Dirk Nowitzki, and Carlos Boozer, who just miss the cut. Here are the top 5, in inverse order:

5. Dwight Howard (Orlando) - He has taken his game to a completely new level this season on both sides of the ball. With 2.6 blocks per game, he is a threat defensively at the basket. Offensively, he has developed an efficient, and explosive post game, using his incredible quickness in the post. Plus, at age 22 he is the best rebounder alive, using his instincts and athleticism to grab nearly 15 rebounds per game.

4. Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles) - People often refer to Kobe as the best player in the world, but I'm not sure that's the case anymore. He seems to have lost a little bit of the athleticism after the knee surgery. But people don't give him enough credit for his craftiness and smarts scoring the basketball. While a guy like LeBron James relies on his athleticism sometimes to score, Kobe scores in a number of ways. He is quick on the post, great with fadeaways, and just crafty when he gets the ball down low. The shooting percentage is down a little bit, and he is not getting to the FT line as much as he has in past years (again, a sign that he may have lost a little explosiveness and is not going to the basket as much), but he's still obviously one of the 2 most dangerous offensive players in the NBA.

3. Kevin Garnett (Boston) - Looking at the Celtics record is enough to see the impact that KG has had. The counting stats are down a bit this year, but there are reasons for that. He is not playing quite as many minutes, and he is simply deferring to teammates more. With talented guys around him, KG does not have to force things... of course, he has adapted his game seamlessly, showing the unselfishness of his game. He is taking only good shots... he is shooting the ball 4 less times per game than he was last year, and his shooting percentage has skyrocketed from 47.6% to 55.1%. Add in the world-class defense, and KG is #3 on my MVP list.

2. Chris Paul (New Orleans) - Yes, the most underappreciated player in the NBA. People need to see how good Chris Paul is. It's difficult to appreciate how good he has been in leading the Hornets to their blistering 32-12 start. He scores efficiently (48% shooting, 35% 3's, 89% FT), and is a fantastic passer, doling out over 10 assists per game. For being 6'0, he is a great rebounder, snagging 4 per game. Defensively, he might have the quickest hands of anyone in the NBA, getting 2.6 steals per game. He is the premier PG in the NBA.

1. LeBron James (Cleveland) - The best, most athletic player in the NBA. To say that LeBron James is the most athletic player in the game hardly does him justice... it really is like a man among boys, at times. He is the quickest player in the league off the dribble, one of the fastest up the court, and the highest leaper. Oh yeah, and he's the best and strongest finisher at the hoop in the NBA, with a greater skill of getting 3-point plays. Add in the fact that he's a great passer and is becoming a great defender, and it's hard not to see him deserving this award every year for a while. He may not be a consistent outside shooter yet (and maybe never will be), but he more than makes up for that by being so incredibly outstanding in every other facet of the game.

Your thoughts? Who is your first half MVP?

Who is the Midseason NBA MVP?
	LeBron James
	Chris Paul
	Kevin Garnett
	Kobe Bryant
	Dwight Howard
	Other

Spurs win Game 1

As was pretty much expected, the Spurs won Game 1 fairly easily, dominating the 3rd quarter in route to an 86-75 win.

But while the Spurs win wasn't surprising, the complete nonfactor of LeBron James was a bit surprising. LeBron was only 4/16 from the field, scoring 14 points, grabbing 7 rebounds, and doling out 4 assists. While he probably won't struggle like this all series, I think this is going to be a major problem for the Cavs.

Game 5 notwithstanding, LeBron still isn't that great of a jump shooter. His offensive game is more predicated on getting to the rim, and he's just not able to do that too effectively against the Spurs, the best help defensive team in the NBA. Even if LeBron gets by the strong on-the-ball defense from Bowen or Ginobili, he'll still have Tim Duncan, Fransisco Oberto, Robert Horry, & Co. at the rim. That's hard.

One more note on the Cavs, and that's to say that Larry Hughes should not be starting, and at no time should be guarding Tony Parker. I'm not big on Hughes anyway, but with him being hobbled a bit Parker can drive by him at will, as he showed. The less Hughes plays, the more Gibson plays, the better. Gibson was outstanding in Game 1.

For the Spurs, it was the same story as usual. Aside from a stretch in the 2nd quarter they were efficient offensively and superb defensively. Tony Parker was the high point scorer and he did play a terrific game, but Tim Duncan was the MVP. The numbers were impressive... 24 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, but as is the case with Duncan the whole game was great. He was great in help defense at the rim, he didn't force things, and is always in the right position. Just a brilliant game from him.

This is how I think the series will go... both teams are strong defensively so the scoring will be low, but the Spurs are just too good and efficient to be beat in a 7 game series. I still believe LeBron will be good enough to get them a win or two, but beyond that, there's too much Tim Duncan and too much Tony Parker.

Who would you trade the #1 pick for?

Saw an interesting idea on FanIQ (via Blazer's Edge), so I thought I'd give my take on it... the question is, if you were the Portland Trailblazers, who would you trade the #1 pick for?

Critical Fanatic had only 2 players that he'd trade the right to draft Oden for... LeBron James and Dwight Howard.

The first one, I'd agree with. I think LeBron James is a no-brainer. He's already the best player in the NBA at age 22, and he's the most physically gifted player in the history of the NBA. No matter the potential of Oden, LeBron James is a guy I would trade him for.

The other choice of Dwight Howard, I would disagree with. Obviously, Howard is an utterly fantastic player. But I do have some concerns about him turning into one of the top 3 players in the NBA. Steve Kerr wrote an article on Yahoo! earlier this season, basically wondering whether Dwight Howard would really develop into a good back-to-the-basket player. I have some of those same concerns. I mean, he still scored 17 PPG and shot 60% from the field, but is he ever going to be a dominant offensive force? I'm not sure.

There is only one other guy I would trade the pick for, and that is Dwyane Wade. He is 25, but I thought he was the best player in the NBA this year when he was healthy, and we saw what he could do when he led the Heat to the NBA title in 2006. He is a great scorer, but he still remains unselfish and plays hard every night. I think he and LeBron will be the two best players in the NBA next season.

Other possibilities were intriguing, but not enough. Tim Duncan is the best PF ever (in my book), but he's on the wrong side of 30 to be trading Greg Oden for. Ditto for Kevin Garnett, who has started to decline (albeit slightly). Kobe Bryant is getting older as well. Beyond that, there's really no one I would consider.

So who would make you give up the #1 pick?

NBA Finals Predictions

First off, let me say that I think San Antonio is much better than anyone from the East. By the same token, I would say Dallas, Phoenix, and Utah were all better than any team from the East. But that doesn't mean this thing won't be competitive.

The reason I think this will be competitive is the same reason I was glad the Cavs won the last series, and that should be pretty obvious... LeBron James. He is simply the best, most dominating player in this series. As he showed in Game 5 against Detroit, he can win games by himself, something I don't think Detroit had.

Unfortunately, the Spurs have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best players in this series, as well as a much better coach and a more versatile team. They're also better defensively and more efficient offensively. The Spurs have every single edge in this series except one... they don't have LeBron James.

So how many wins is LeBron James good for? Well, if Daniel Gibson plays like he did in Game 6, maybe 4. But I don't think that will happen. I think James will be fantastic throughout, and that should be good for a couple of wins. Beyond that, I really just think the Spurs are too good. Too good defensively, too efficient offensively, too well-coached, and too experienced led by Tim Duncan. All in all, I'll take the SPURS IN 6.

What are your thoughts?

We are all witnesses

W-O-W

Cavs even the series

Some quick thoughts from Game 4:

- This is like deja vu for the Pistons. Last year, after game 2 of the 2nd round, their offense was kind of stagnant for the rest of the playoffs. This year, they dominated the first 2 games against Chicago, and then it was a struggle the rest of the series. Against Cleveland, they have really struggled all series, barely hanging onto the 2 games at home. Last year this all caught up with them in the conference finals, as Miami went on to win the series. This year, I kinda think the same thing will happen... I like Cleveland in 7.

- I am starting the think the Cavs are actually a better team without Larry Hughes (he only played 16 minutes because of injury). They're not as strong defensively without Hughes, but I think their offense is a little better.

- Where is the Chauncey Billups that was always the clutch performer at the end of games? To be blunt, he sucked at the end of this one. First the bad pass and foul, then the awful pull-up 3 on the fast break. Those were two killer plays.

- LeBron making a couple of clutch free throws! Yay!

- I'm not an NBA head coach, but I think Detroit should have at least tried to guard Drew Gooden in the corner. He killed them from there in the last few minutes of the 4th.

- More and more I think that whoever wins this series is going to get lambasted in the Finals... the only hope is if Cleveland wins and LeBron single-handedly makes things interesting. We'll see.

What are your thoughts on the game that was?

Stuff

With the weather getting nicer, admittedly I'm spending less and less time watching sports and more time, you know, outside doing stuff and enjoying the Memorial Day weekend. So I'll just post my thoughts on some different topics of sports conversation over the weekend.

- First, the Western Conference has been a lot better all year long, and the first 2 rounds of the playoffs were worlds more exciting in the West than the East, but I have found a little more interest in Pistons/Cavs than Jazz/Spurs. Utah and San Antonio is probably a little better played, but the other series has a guy named LeBron James. For all of the slacking LeBron has done this year, he has still turned it on for the playoffs and he's still the most exciting player to watch in the NBA.

- Just to clarify, the fact that LeBron can do things like this is a big reason why he's so great to watch.

- This doesn't even really need to be said, but if you're bored, just go to Fire Joe Morgan and read. Definitely one of the most consistently entertaining sites on the interwebs.

- As more and more evidence piles up against Mike Vick and his knowledge of the dogfighting ring, I hope Roger Goodell is proactive (like he was with Pac-Man Jones) and suspends Vick, even if the law hasn't filed charges yet or the case is still pending. I think he will, and I think that will be the right move.

- I took Roger Clemens in my fantasy baseball drafts at the start of the year with the expectations that he'd be back, so from that standpoint it was good to see that after two OK starts, he was very solid in his AAA start, tossing 6 scoreless innings. But don't get me wrong, the Yankees still suck a lot.

- For the record, of all of the Thursday Debates I've done, I still think the question about who is the 2nd best PG in the NBA is still the most intriguing one. I've still going with Chris Paul, but it's tough to argue with Pacifist Viking who likes Jason Kidd as the best PG in the NBA.

- Spurs lead the series 3-1... assuming their ticket is punched (and I don't see any way the Jazz will win 3 straight), here's hoping the Cavs join them in the Finals.

Conference Finals Predictions

The conference finals are here! It's safe to say that my predictions haven't exactly been wildly successful thus far, but, well, persistence is key.

Cavs vs. Pistons
This was a surprisingly close series last year, with the Cavs nearly beating Detroit in 6 before succumbing to the Pistons in 7 games. This year, I think both teams are a little better. LeBron James could stand to try a little harder all the time, but he's still the most gifted player athletically in the League. For Detroit, everything is flowing better. They are getting more ball movement, more everything offensively, and that is making them a better team. If LeBron becomes Superman like he can be during this series, the Cavs have a good shot at winning it. However, I think the Pistons learned something from letting the Bulls back into the last series. PISTONS IN 6.

Jazz vs. Spurs
Everyone seems to be giving this series to the Spurs, but the Jazz are pretty darn good too. They won Game 7 in Houston, then took care of Golden State in a surprisingly quick fashion. They've got great balance, solid defense, great rebounding, and Deron Williams is huge at the PG spot. I think the Jazz are the second best team left in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they're going up against the best team left. The Spurs were kinda my thought to win it all before the playoffs began, and I've seen absolutely nothing to change my mind. They score in a multitude of ways, and they are the best defensive team in the NBA. Utah will have enough to make it a very good series, but the Spurs are a little too good, I think. SPURS IN 6.

NBA Playoff Predictions

With the long, grinding season over, we've finally reached the NBA playoffs. To be honest, I found this NBA regular season to be pretty dull for the most part, but we've got a lot of great playoff matchups. Here's my picks:

EAST

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Orlando Magic
The Magic just aren't playing very good basketball right now. They've got some good parts, but I think Detroit is just too talented and too experienced. Magic might steal 1, but Detroit is number 1 seed for a reason. PISTONS IN 5.

(4) Miami Heat vs. (5) Chicago Bulls
I think Dwyane Wade is great, but I don't really like this matchup for Miami. The Bulls basically gave Miami everything they wanted last year in the first round, and now the Bulls are better and the Heat are worse than they were. If Wade was at full strength, maybe. But as it is, I think the Bulls will be too strong, especially defensively, against the Heat. BULLS IN 6.

(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (6) New Jersey Nets
Everyone seems to be picking the Nets here, but I'm not so sure. I think the Raptors are the better defensive team, and they're a little more balanced. Plus, the Nets bench it just so bad. Either way, it will definitely be a tight series, and if I were a Raptors fan, I would boo Vince Carter mercilessly. RAPTORS IN 7.

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (7) Washington Wizards
I feel robbed. Instead of LeBron vs. Wade in round 1, we get this. I can just about guarantee it won't be as exciting as the series last year between these 2 teams. CAVS IN 4.


WEST

(1) Dallas Mavericks vs. (8) Golden State Warriors
Interesting matchup here for obvious reasons... Golden State has performed very well against Dallas this year, and the Warriors coach is Don Nelson, who is pretty familiar with this Mavs team. Still, let's not get carried away. There's a reason the Mavs won 67 games. MAVS IN 5.

(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Utah Jazz
Jazz have a very solid starting lineup with the potential to cause problems for Houston. Deron Williams is going to be really tough to guard, and Mehmet Okur can pull Yao Ming away from the basket. But this is a really good Houston team... they have the two stars, tons of great role players, and they just do what it takes to win. As I've said many times, the Rockets actually remind me a lot of the Heat last year as a team. ROCKETS IN 6.

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
Obviously the Nuggets star power is enough to cause anyone problems, but this is San Antonio we're talking about. They're great defensively, and I think they should be able to slow down a good but slightly predictable Denver attack. I think Bowen will frustrate Carmelo some, and the duo of Parker/Ginobili will be able to stay with AI enough to not let him take over enough games to win the series. This should be very entertaining, but the Spurs are a little too good. SPURS IN 6.

(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
This was probably the best first round series last year, but I don't think we'll see a repeat of that. For one, Phoenix is better. They've got some guy named Amare Stoudemire that should be able to dominate down low. That's even bigger because the Lakers are not as good inside as they were last year. The series should still be entertaining because of the Kobe vs. the Suns aspect, but I don't think it will be as good as last year. SUNS IN 5.

Disagreements?

My 2007 NBA MVP Winner

Yesterday I looked at the "Other" Awards in the NBA, and today it's time for the MVP. The prevailing theory everywhere seems to be that this is a two-horse race between Dirk Nowitski and Steve Nash, but I'm not sure I subscribe to that theory.

We'll get to that later, but first another note. Two guys may very well have made this list (almost certainly would have) had they not gotten injured. One is Dwyane Wade. He was actually my MVP of the first half, and I still think he's been the best player when he's played, but the injury drops him from consideration. The second is Yao Ming, who was extremely good, but again gets knocked out because of injury.

Which leaves my top 7. Apologies to Gilbert Arenas, Tracy McGrady, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire, who just missed the cut.

(7) Carlos Boozer - Utah Jazz

Boozer finished 4th in the NBA in rebounding, and has just been an efficient and effective post player for the surprising Jazz. In scoring 21 points and grabbing 11.8 rebounds per game, the raw numbers are there. But he's also shooting nearly 56% from the field, getting to the line over 5 times a game, and getting 3 assists per contest. Boozer has been one of the big reasons for the rise of the Jazz this year.

(6) Kevin Garnett - Minnesota Timberwolves

As usual, KG quietly gets the job done. He's still the best rebounder in the NBA, and he compliments that with a versatile offensive game, great passing skills, and very good all-around defense. He is perhaps the most unselfish player in the League, giving 100% every night for a team that has basically been run into the ground by Kevin McHale. At age 30 he is still one of the premier players in the NBA and places #6 on my ballot.

(5) LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers

It is telling that LeBron finishes 5th here, and in many respects had a very disappointing season. There was all the talk early on about how it didn't really look like he was trying all that hard, and I'm not sure that was unwarranted. In any regard, he simply didn't progress this year the way we all thought and hoped he would. His shooting percentages are all done, including (most notably) his FT percentage, which seems to have forced him to shoot more jumpers. His rebounding and assists numbers are also slightly down, which isn't what everyone expected from the King. A strong playoff performance (like last year) will go a long way towards making everyone forget this regular season, but let's not get too carried away. He was pretty darn good.

(4) Steve Nash - Phoenix Suns

I suspect this is the placement that will make people unhappy, but that's ok. I actually do think Nash has been better this year than his 2 MVP years, I just think he didn't really deserve the MVP the last couple of seasons. He's a great player, and a great PG, I just think there are guys more valuable than him. The number of assists per game is gaudy, but also aided by the fact that his supporting cast is superb and the pace the Suns play at gives them a lot more possessions. Still, he is a great passer, great shooter (maybe the best in the NBA), and he handles the ball extremely well, especially with the offhand. Putting Nash at 4 isn't a slight to him, it's just recognizing that there are some really good players that are just a little better than him.

(3) Kobe Bryant - Los Angeles Lakers

His PPG average is down about 4 points, but Kobe has been better this year than he was last year. He is taking a lot less shots per game and as a result has been a more efficient scorer. He gets to the line about 10 times per game, which is good because he is a very good FT shooter. Another aspect of him toning down the shots some this year is that he got his teammates more involved, which upped his APG to 5.4. Even with him handling the ball so much, he still has a pretty low turnover rate, which just adds to his effectiveness.

(2) Tim Duncan - San Antonio Spurs

Obviously Duncan isn't flashy, but he's just a great player. He averaged 20 and 10 like he has done every year of his career except one (last year, when he was bothered by foot injuries), but his impact goes beyond that. He shot 55% this year, which is superb for someone shooting 14 shots per game like he does. He's also one of the best interior defenders in the NBA, as he once again anchored one of the best defenses in the League. He's not going to wow you, but with the efficient offensive game and great defensive work, he's #2 on my MVP ballot.

(1) Dirk Nowitzki - Dallas Mavericks

Dirk continued his rapid ascent to superstardom with his best year to date, a year that is good enough to win him NBA numbers. As of now he's a 50-40-90 guy... he shoots 50.1% from the field, 41.9% from downtown, and 90.3% from the FT line. And he's a 7-footer. And that's not all. He also averaged 9 RPG, and posted a career high in APG with 3.4. He's not the best defensive player around, but he's the best all-around player in the NBA, and one that is deserving of winning the MVP.

Playoff Race: Eastern Conference

As we get towards the end of the NBA season, it's time to take a look at the playoff picture and some of the potential storylines. Let's start with the East, because I'm too lazy to do both conferences right now.

A possibly great 4/5 matchup - As things sit right now, Miami would be the 4 seed (because they will win their division) and Cleveland will be the 5 seed. Meaning Lebron vs. Wade. We all saw what these guys did in the playoffs last year... playing against each other in a 7-game series would be really great to see. I'd rather see it in the conference finals, but I'll settle for it here.

The race for the 8 seed - Then again, does this really matter? Right now Orlando is the 8 seed at 36-42, but Indiana is 2 games back and Philly is 3 games back. Regardless of who finishes 8th, these teams are not good. In other words, I'm not all that optimistic that any of them can hang with Detroit.

The Wizards could be the worst playoff team ever - I mean, they're a solid club at full strength... but (no disrespect to Prada over at Bullets Forever), without Arenas and Butler they're really bad. Their bench was already thin, and now Donnell Taylor is their 6th man. I have a feeling it will be a short and ugly playoff appearance for the Wizards this year.

Competitive 2nd round matchups - If the seeds hold, we could get some really good matchups, and I think any of 5 teams are very capable of winning the conference. The first round doesn't look like it will be very exciting (except Heat/Cavs), but possible matchups involving Detroit vs Miami/Cleveland and Chicago vs. Toronto would be very competitive.

Anyway, as you can tell, I'm not really excited about the playoffs in the East this year other than seeing LeBron in the playoffs... the West, on the other hand, should be awesome. We'll do a recap of what things look like tomorrow.

NBA Power Rankings

With the All-Star break and all of its festivities (including Charles Barkley vs. Dick Bavetta) behind us, I figured now would be as good a time as any for my Top 10 NBA Power Rankings.

(1) Dallas Mavericks (44-9) - The thing I like about Dallas is that they have the personnel to beat you in a multitude of ways. During their 9 game winning streak they have scored over 105 points on 4 separate occasions. They've also won a game 80-77. Oh yeah... after their first 21 games, they were 14-7. Since, they're 30-2. Just think about that for a second. Wow.

(2) Phoenix Suns (39-13) - The Suns would have a shot to be #1, but then Steve Nash got hurt and they lost 3 straight heading into the break. Still, their top 6 (Nash, Bell, Diaw, Stoudemire, Marion, Barbosa) is better than anyone else's top 6, and their style of play is the most unique in the NBA. Honestly, the only thing I think that can derail them from a rematch against Dallas in the Conference Finals is injury. Barring that, they're too talented and too well-coaches to fall to anyone else.

(3) San Antonio Spurs (35-18) - Ho hum, the Spurs keep plugging along. Duncan has been fantastic, Parker has been very solid, and Ginobili should be well-rested for the playoffs (only playing 28 MPG). This is a team that will always be in it at the end.

(4) Houston Rockets (33-19) - Got to love what the Rockets are doing, especially without Yao. I know I've said this before but the Rockets remind me of last year's Heat team, with Yao being a better Shaq and T-Mac not quite being as good as Wade. One problem... while the Heat were able to win in one series against the West, I don't think they'd have made it to the Finals if they had been a 4 or 5 seed in the West, which is what Houston will ultimately be.

(5) Utah Jazz (35-17) - The big men, Boozer and Okur, are both excellent... but seriously, how good is Deron Williams? Good shooter (who showed during the Rookie/Sophomore game that he has great range), great passer, above average defender. Look at the numbers... 17.4 PPG, 9.2 APG, 3.5 RPG... I'm not saying I'd rather have him over Chris Paul (I'm not sure who I'd take), but the pick to take Williams looks a lot better now than it did last year.

(6) Detroit Pistons (32-19) - Hey, finally a team from the East! Cant' complain too much about C-Webb, but think for a second... in one season the Pistons went from having Ben Wallace as their starting center to Chris Webber. That defensive dropoff is like going from Jason Kidd (a bad defensive PG) to me as the starter. That's never good.

(7) Cleveland Cavaliers (31-22) - I can't really figure these guys out. With LeBron, I can see them going all the way to the NBA Finals. Then I see the rest of the backcourt... Larry Hughes, Damon Jones, Eric Snow, Daniel Gibson, and Sasha Pavlovic. Yikes.

(8) Chicago Bulls (29-25) - The record is not as good as some others, but their point differential is solid, and I really think the Bulls will be one of the teams to beat in the playoffs this year. Now, if they could only find a way to trade for KG, we'd all be happy.

(9) Los Angeles Lakers (30-24) - The Lakers have been struggling lately, but they should be helped by the soon return of Luke Walton (no, really). Walton's great passing and unselfishness really help to keep the triangle flowing... in some ways I think he is actually the 2nd most important player on the team.

(10) Washington Wizards (29-21) - They score on average 0.1 PPG more than their opponents and they don't win all that much on the road... I didn't really want to put them on this list, but no one else really jumped out at me. I think this year will win up a lot like last year for the Wiz... the explosive and exciting offense to make things very interesting and give them a chance to win in Round 1 of the playoffs, but ultimately they'll be undone by the fact that they can't stop anybody.

What would you change here?

My Favorite NBA Players to Watch

Yesterday I looked at my favorite college basketball players to watch, and today, it's time to turn to the NBA. Once again, in no particular order, the players I most enjoy watching:

Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix) - I mentioned this in my Midseason Awards, but I just think his game is so unique and so fun to watch, especially in Phoenix, the perfect system for his skills. He's an excellent 3-point shooter with a quick release. But he's also one of the fastest players in the NBA on the fast break, one of the quickest on his first step to the basket, and a very good finisher at the hoop.

LeBron James (Cleveland) - He hasn't quite progressed this year as much as everyone hoped and expected, but he's still the guy that will get me to watch a game more than anyone else. More than any other player, you're never really quite sure what you might see from LeBron, or what he might do out on the court. He's the most athletically gifted player ever, and he makes plays that just shouldn't be made. He needs to be a little more consistent and continue to develop the jumper, but he's still great to watch.

Gilbert Arenas (Washington) - Gotta love watching Agent Zero simply because he's liable to pretty much shoot from anywhere at anytime. 25 footer with 20 seconds left on the shot clock in a tight game? He'll do it. Plus, he's got a great blog on NBA.com, and that's got to count for something, right?

Kyle Korver (Philadelphia) - Just a fantastic shooter. He's got an unbelievably quick release and his range starts right about when he steps into the arena. The rest of his game is not so great, but watching him shoot makes up for that.

Kevin Garnett (Minnesota) - You just have to like a guy toiling in relative anonymity in Minnesota (well, anonymity compared to other superstars), but he just goes out there every night, plays hard, and puts up great numbers for a perpetually mediocre organization under Kevin McHale. He's one of the best rebounders of the modern era, he's consistent offensively, a great defensive player, good passer, and he gives 100% every night. Hopefully the TWolves trade him to a contender.

Shane Battier (Houston) - A guy that just does all of the little things. He's a great 3-point shooter, he plays great defense (on the ball and off the ball) and he's completely unselfish on the court.

Andrew Bynum (Los Angeles) - While its fun to watch him mature more and more, what I like about watching Bynum is his passing ability. It hasn't quite shown up a lot in the stats, but he's been very good in the triangle at just taking what is there and making some solid passes to open teammates. Very impressive for a young guy.

Allen Iverson (Denver) - And last but not least, Allen Iverson, still one of the most exciting players in the NBA, with one of the most unique styles of play ever in the NBA. I mean, just think, he's 6 feet tall, 160 pounds, has never had a great jumper, and will still wind up as one of the most prolific scorers ever. Just fun to watch him compete.

Who do you enjoy watching?