My American League All-Star Picks

With the midseason break approaching, time to give my picks for the American League All-Star team starters.

Catcher
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer is the real easy choice here. He currently sits 2nd in the AL in batting average, he's showed his usual great plate patience (.410 OBP is also second in the AL), and he's been a solid doubles hitter. We're still waiting for the homerun power to come on a semi-consistent basis, but he's still indisputably the best catcher in the AL.
Other Options: Dioner Navarro (TB)
Actual Pick: Joe Mauer

First Base
Kevin Youkilis (BOS) - I feel much less sure on this one... Jason Giambi has been a better hitter, but he has a lot less ABs and less value in the field. Youkilis has been a little better hitter than Justin Morneau, but Morneau has almost 40 more PAs. In the end, Youkilis is my choice... he's been his typical self getting on base at a .375 clip, and he's hitting for good power this year, with 13 HR and 22 2B. Plus, as always, he plays solid defense at 1B.
Other Options: Justin Morneau (MIN), Jason Giambi (NYY)
Actual Pick: Kevin Youkilis

Second Base
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Again, a pretty easy choice here. Of all regular 2B in the AL, Kinsler has the highest average, gets on base the most, and has hit for (easily) the most power. He's even stolen 23 bases while only getting thrown out once. Brian Roberts has been very good as well, but Kinsler is hitting for a lot more power and stealing bases more effectively.
Other Options: Brian Roberts (BAL)
Actual Pick: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Third Base
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) - No surprise that A-Rod is once again the best 3B in the AL. The man in a machine, and continues to be one of (if not the) top all-around players in the MLB. He's in the top 6 in lots of major offensive categories, including #2 in OPS.
Other Options: Mike Lowell (BOS), Evan Longoria (TB)
Actual Pick: Alex Rodriguez

Shortstop
Michael Young (TEX) - Honestly, not a lot of inspiring choices for AL SS. I think Young has probably been the best of a pretty mediocre bunch of AL SS's this year.
Other Options: Derek Jeter (NYY), Jhonny Peralta (CLE)
Actual Pick: Derek Jeter (NYY)

Outfield
Grady Sizemore (CLE) - Sizemore continues to be one of the best all-around players in the MLB, despite playing for an underachieving Indians team. Sizemore's average is down a bit this year, but he is still working the count to get on base, and is leading the AL in HR as of this writing. He combines that with good defense in CF, and 20 SB (only caught 3 times). Sizemore does it all on the baseball field.

Josh Hamilton (TEX) - Hamilton is one of the best stories in the MLB, and he's made it even better by becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in the AL. He's hitting for average (top 10 in AL) and power (2nd in HR, top 5 in SLG), and is far and away leading the AL in RBI with 85 as of this writing. His numbers are skewed a bit because of the ballpark he plays in (his home/road splits are pretty ugly), but he's still my choice.

JD Drew (BOS) - Drew is playing like he finally deserves that big contract, as he's been one of the best hitters in the AL so far this year. His OPS easily is tops among AL OFs with enough ABs to qualify. He's 3rd in the League in SLG, and he's getting on base at an excellent clip, also 3rd in the American League.

Other Options: Carlos Quentin (CHI), Jermaine Dye (CHI), Nick Markakis (BAL)
Actual Picks: Josh Hamilton, Manny Ramirez (BOS), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

Designated Hitter
Milton Bradley (TEX) - No contest here whatsoever. Bradley has likely been the best hitter in the American League so far this season, and is definitely far and away above the other DH candidates. If you were going to bet on baseball, what were the odds you could have gotten if you would have picked Milton Bradley to be leading the AL in OPS at the midway point?
Actual Pick: David Ortiz (BOS)

What would your picks be?

Thursday Debate: Who is the best MLB GM?

We have a weekly feature on here called Thursday Debate... today it's time to look at who is the best General Manager in the MLB.

It's an interesting debate that's highly subjective, because every GM is in a different position. Payroll, owners, competing teams, even luck can all have huge impacts on the performance of certain GMs. But in my mind, there are a few guys that stick out above the rest. They are:

Billy Beane (Oakland) - If you've read Moneyball, you know all about Beane. If you haven't, well, you really should. Beane consistently does more with less perhaps better than anyone else in baseball. He doesn't have a whole lot of resources in Oakland, but the A's are always competitive and usually in the playoffs. In all ihonesty, he hasn't done great with trades recently, but he's a master at picking up the right free agents and does a good job with the farm system.

The biggest complaint I've seen about him is that his teams typically don't perform that well in the playoffs. Well, the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot. In a 5 or 7-game series, the best team definitely does not always win. That's not really the GM's fault.

Terry Ryan (Minnesota) - As a Twins fan, I follow Ryan closer than any other GM. First, his strengths. He runs a great minor league system and constantly replenishes the Major League team with Minor League talent. Almost every important players on the Twins is homegrown. Second, he's great at making small deals. You may remember him making a certan deal with San Francisco, but that's just part of it. He's made lots of small deals for guys like Jason Bartlett, Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, etc. Also, he got Johan Santana in the Rule 5 Draft, and that alone should put him high on the list.

But that's not to say he doesn't have his weaknesses. His free agent signings in recent years have left something to be desired. He likes to keep the young guys down on the farm as long as possible, and that leads him to sometimes going with a lot of veterans that shouldn't be starting. Last year, guys like Tony Batista and Juan Castro got a lot of playing time. This year, it was guys like Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. That's not good.

John Schuerholz (Atlanta) - If nothing else, just look at all of those division titles in a row. Sometimes people will say he just had some luck in having Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, but you can't win that much with only a few pitchers. He did a very good job with the farm system, free agents, and everything else. And again, the Braves might only have a couple of World Series rings to show from all of those division titles, but the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Theo Epstein (Boston) - We all know he was the guy that was the GM when they finally broke the drought. He tends to use a more stats-oriented approach, and that's something I like. But I kind of wonder how he would do with a team that had a lesser payroll. He's made quite a few mistakes, but he can help cover that up because the Sox spend lots and lots of money. GMs like Billy Beane and Terry Ryan don't have that luxury.

Kevin Towers (San Diego) - I think he's one of the more under appreciated GMs but you have to respect what he's going in San Diego. They've been in the playoffs the past couple of years (with a pretty young team) and look to have a good shot again this year.

Dave Dombrowski (Detroit) - Dombrowksi is another guy who I think is a little underrated, as he has had a lot of success in both Florida and now Detroit. In Florida he won 1 World Series and basically built a large portion of the 2003 team that won the World Series. In Detroit he took a team that lost 119 games in his first year, and turned it into what it is now... a team that won the AL Pennant last year and looks like pretty strong contenders once again. Plus, with a young pitching staff the future appears to be bright.

Mark Shapiro (Cleveland) - Shapiro did a really nice job rebuilding the Indians and turning them into what looks like they will be perennial contenders. They've got a nice, young nucleus that is mostly locked up, and should be mainstays near the top of the AL Central for years.

Omar Minaya (New York Mets) - I personally am not a huge fan of his as a GM, but he's done a nice job. He's made some pretty solid FA pickups in New York that got them deep into the postseason last year and back atop the division right now.

Walt Jocketty (St. Louis) - The Cardinals are struggling this year but Jocketty has had a lot of success in past years. Obviously the Cardinals won the World Series last year, and they were mainstays in the playoffs before that.

Another guy to consider is Brian Cashman, but it's just hard to judge him because we don't know how many of the moves are his and how many are George Steinbrenner's. Josh Byrnes from Arizona is another guy that could wind up on this list in another couple of years, as the DBacks have a nice farm system in place.

If pressed, I think I would choose Billy Beane as the top GM, followed (in order) by Terry Ryan, John Schuerholz, Dave Dombrowksi, and Kevin Towers.

But who do you think is the best? Vote and then give me your reasons in the comments. Please.

Who is the best MLB GM?
	Billy Beane - Oakland
	Terry Ryan - Minnesota
	John Schuerholz - Atlanta
	Theo Epstein - Boston
	Dave Dombrowksi - Detroit
	Mark Shapiro - Cleveland
	Walt Jocketty - St. Louis
	Omar Minaya - New York
	Kevin Towers - San Diego
	Other

MLB Power Rankings - 7/16

Like the last wildly popular version, it's time for another set of rankings of my top 10 teams in the MLB. Or in other words, nothing much else is going on in sports right now.

1. Boston Red Sox - Just barely retain the top spot, but they still have a comfortable 9 game lead in the AL East. But I still think the Yankees might have a little something to say by the end of the season, but things are still looking very good in Boston.

2. Detroit Tigers - They have scored almost 50 more runs than the next highest team (Cleveland), and the pitching is pretty solid too. They're "only" 25-19 at home, but a fantastic 29-17 on the road. Once Zumaya comes back to shore up the bullpen they're probably the team to be in the American League.

3. Cleveland Indians - Their offense hasn't been quite as explosive as the Tigers, but it's still pretty darn good. Unlike Detroit, they're a pedestrian 21-24 on the road, but a remarkable 33-13 at home, best in the Majors.

4. Anaheim Angels - The Angels are actually tied with the Red Sox for the best record in the Majors, though I think it's been a little flukey. Still, they're a really solid team and look like the overwhelming favorites in the AL West. The Mariners might have a shot if they make a couple of moves, but the A's don't look very good right now after getting swept by the Twins.

5. San Diego Padres - They have falled behind the Dodgers right now in the NL West, but I do still think they will come out on top. They have the best pitching in the League, and have been a little unlucky. It looks like the NL West will be one of the best races between the Dodgers and Padres.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers - They have started off great since the Break, moving into the lead in the NL West. They are a great 19-10 in 1-run games, which tends to even out, which is why I'm a little more optimistic about the Padres than the Dodgers. But if Saito and Broxton can continue to shut the door at the end of ballgames the Dodgers should be in great position.

7. Milwaukee Brewers - They're probably looking over their shoulders at the Cubs a little bit (especially if the Ben Sheets injury is serious), but they've survived a mini stumble (with the Cubs playing very well) and are still up 3.5 games. If Sheets is OK, Yovani Gallardo should remain in the rotation, bumping either Jeff Suppan or Chris Capuano.

8. Minnesota Twins - After a 4-game sweep of the A's, the Twins are only 6 games behind the Tigers in the Central. If the young pitchers (Bonser, Garza, Baker) can continue to give them quality starts, they are a serious threat in the AL. They've still got the best pitcher in baseball and a very good middle of the order.

9. New York Yankees - They're just a game over .500, but no team has been more unlucky with regards to what their record is and what their pythagorean record is. They have issues in the bullpen, but the rotation is starting to come together (especially if Phillip Hughes can remain healthy).

10. Chicago Cubs - The Cubs have won 3 in a row and are 7-3 in their last 10, which have made them into a threat in the NL Central and possibly even a factor in the Wildcard race. Don't look now, but Carlos Marmol has been one of the best relievers in the MLB this year.

What are your thoughts?

MLB 2nd Half Predictions

Continuing with the theme of midseason MLB posts, it's time for one more... my 2nd half predictions. I'll give you my order for the divisions, and then any other random predictions I can think of. I'd comment on the All-Star game, but I didn't really watch it (other than the surprisingly exciting bottom of the 9th inning).

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

I think the Yankees have just had awful luck this year (6-14 in 1-run games) that will even out over the course of the year, so I actually think they might have a chance to make a legitimate run at the division title, but 10 games is just a lot to overcome against a really good Red Sox team. At the tail end of the division, the DRays still aren't any good.

AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians*
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

I would like to pick the Twins here, but it's hard to see lightning striking twice. The Indians and Tigers are both high quality teams and the 7-8 game edge they have will be tough for the Twins to overcome. That said, I do have a good feeling about this Twins team, and all (well, maybe there's still some) bias aside, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Minnesota back in the postseason.

AL WEST
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers

I think Oakland will be the best team in this division in the 2nd half, but I'm not sure they're quite good enough to overcome the 9 game cushion that the Angels have right now. Likewise, the Mariners are a good team, but not better than the Angels. As usual, the Rangers are pretty much irrelevant at this point.

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. NY Mets*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

I think some of the performances by Mets pitchers have been a little flukey (see: John Maine, Jorge Sosa, Oliver Perez), which is why I give the Braves the slight edge for the division. I do like the Mets to win the Wildcard, but the Phillies should be in the race until the end as well. The Marlins are talented, but still a little too inconsistent for me to be legitimate contenders, though they are only 7 games back.

NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

I made the bold prediction that the Cubs will win the NL Central over a month ago, and I am sticking with it. As I said a little while ago, I don't feel too comfortable with it, but the Cubs are playing better and are only 4.5 games back. As their luck continues to even out I see them eventually beating out the Brewers in a really tight race. The rest of the division is awful. The Cardinals are 40-45 and only 7.5 GB, but they haven't even been playing that well. No one else has any chance.

NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants

The Padres only have a 1 game lead right now, but I do think they are definitely the best team in the division. The Dodgers might be able to give them a fight, but I think the DBacks will start falling out of the race. The Rockies have been a nice story, but they're a .500 team. They're just not good enough at this point to compete with the Padres.

Other predictions:

Pitcher most likely to see his numbers drop - Chad Gaudin - It probably doesn't take a rocket scientist for this call, but Gaudin's 2.88 ERA is completely flukey. For one, he has never pitched this well throughout his career. Second, his K/BB numbers are not impressive. Only 68 strikeouts compared to 48 BB. That won't get the job done all year long. I expect his ERA to raise almost a point by the end of the year.

Pitcher most likely to see his numbers improve - Tim Lincecum - I've been on the Lincecum bandwagon from the beginning, and at one point even wondered if he might eventually be a Cy Young candidate, so it's a little disappointing to see the ERA up at 4.63. But I'm not exactly worried. For one, he still has dynamite stuff. Like, some of the best stuff in the MLB. Second, his splits still look very good. He has had some trouble with his control at times, but that was to be expected. What you have to like is that he is striking out over a batter per inning (79 K in 72 IP), which is great. He's also doing a decent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. I think his ERA could drop a run in the 2nd half. Of course, when he does things like this, it's easy to fall in love with his potential.

What do you think of these predictions? Agree or disagree with them?

My American League All-Stars (so far)

We're a little over a third of the way through the season, so I figured it was a good time to post my AL All-Stars if the game were today. I'll try to post the NL ones in a couple days, but for now, well, hopefully this is enough.

Catcher: Jorge Posada (NYY)
Victor Martinez has been good as well, but the mini-Renaissance from Posada puts him in front. Martinez has more HR and RBI than Posada, but Posada has a huge doubles edge which actually gives him the advantage in SLG, to go along with a 30 point edge in OBP. Joe Mauer would have been his recent injury knocks him out of it.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
This was a bit of shocker for me when I was doing research, but Youkilis has been outstanding (if only I could have bet on that at the sportsbook). I imagine there could be some disagreement because he doesn't have the HR and RBI numbers of some other guys (such as reigning MVP Justin Morneau), but Youkilis gets on base at an excellent .428 clip, and his .536 SLG is nothing to sneeze at. He is actually 6th in the AL in OPS.

Second Base: BJ Upton (TB)
He's not quite a defensive whiz at 2B, but his offensive effort has been quite sterling. His OBP is nearly .400, his SLG is in the mid 500s, and he's even stole 13 bases. Maybe he's not a Gold Glover defensively, but his offense more than makes up for it.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
This one doesn't even really need any explanation. A-Rod has been far and away the best 3B in the AL so far.

Shortstop: Carlos Guillen (DET)
The talent in the AL at SS is not nearly as strong as the NL talent, but the cupboard is not totally bare. Really, any of Carlos Guillen, Jhonny Peralta, Derek Jeter, and Orlando Cabrera are viable choices here, but I go with Guillen. Jeter gets on base more, Peralta hits more HR, and Cabrera plays better defense, but Guillen combines them all the best.

Outfield: Magglio Ordonez (DET)
Magglio has been the best hitter in the MLB so far, so of course he gets the nod in one of the OF spots. His average is great, he's getting on base a ton, and he's hitting for lots of power (over 40 XBH). At age 33 Ordonez is having by far his best year and is the AL MVP at this point.

Outfield: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA)
Magglio has been the bestr, but Guerrero isn't too far behind. Guerrero has been very patient at the plate so far, and surprisingly is first in the AL in OBP right now. Of course, he's still hitting for power, just not as much as Ordonez.

Outfield: Torii Hunter (MIN)
Gary Sheffield's recent surge has him way up there, but Hunter gets the nod for his offense and defense. He's having a career year at the plate, and as his foot has healed from last year he has returned to his great form in CF. He doesn't get on base as well as Sheffield, but has hit for more power than him so far this year and has made up the rest of the difference in the field.

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz (BOS)
Regular readers of this blog might know I'm a big fan of Travis Hafner, but Ortiz has just been clearly better so far. His power is down a little bit from last year, but he is 2nd in the AL in OBP and is still slugging over .600. He has been excellent in picking up the slack for Manny Ramirez.

Starting Pitcher: Dan Haren (OAK)
Haren's the easy choice here, with his ERA currently sitting at 1.70. He has a very good 3.33 K/BB ratio, is striking out 7 hitters per 9 innings, and is just not giving up many hits. His DIPS ERA suggests that this won't quite last, but he's been really good so far, best in the AL.

Any disagreements?

Interview with a Tigers Blogger

With the Twins and Tigers series coming up this weekend, Ian from Bless You Boys and Sweaty Men Endeavors and I had a little cross-blog interview. I asked him questions about the Tigers, and he asked me questions about the Twins. We did this year, and due to popular demand (at least that's what we tell ourselves) have brought it back. I'll post Ian's responses here, and mine will be over at Bless You Boys.

(1) I think it's safe to say that Gary Sheffield has struggled thus far since coming to Detroit. What seems to be his problems? Can they compete for a division title if he is only average?

Ian: From what I've seen, I think Sheffield's just trying too hard. He came to a World Series team and got a big contract extension, and I think he's putting some pressure on himself. And it's only gotten worse as he continues to slump. He's swinging at bad pitches and seems to be pulling most every pitch. He just looks uncomfortable; even his stance looks different from what I remember.

And no, I don't think the Tigers can compete if Sheffield doesn't figure it out. They have a decent record right now, thanks to their pitching, but I don't think that can last throughout the season. Eventually, they need Sheffield to provide the run production expected of him. There's no other player on the roster (well, maybe Magglio Ordonez) who can put up those kinds of numbers by himself.

(2) To be blunt, Sean Casey has been pretty atrocious thus far. Do they have any other options to turn to if he keeps struggling like this?

Ian: Definitely. Marcus Thames has already been starting against left-handed pitchers, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think he could play that position every day, if necessary. Or Chris Shelton, who was the first baseman most of last season, could be called up from AAA Toledo. Either move would probably strengthen the lineup. However, the defense at first base would suffer, and that's not an unimportant consideration to Jim Leyland. Casey's already saved several throwing errors with his glove. But if neither option is to the Tigers' liking, they'll try hard to trade for another first baseman.

(3) Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman have both followed up successful seasons last year with great starts to this season. If you had one game to win, which guy would you rather have on the mound?

Ian: I'd choose Bonderman, and not just because of his experience. Before the season, I thought Tigers fans were laying it on a little thick, saying he could be a Cy Young Award candidate, but so far, he's pitched to that level. Two of his last three starts have been phenomenal, and he'd bring that talent and determination to a must-win game. For whatever reason, Bonderman can still struggle in the first inning, but if a team doesn't get to him then, something clicks and he locks in. He could absolutely go nine innings in a Game 7, and I don't think you can say the same thing about Verlander.

(4) I must admit, it usually gives me hope as a Twins fan to see Todd Jones coming out to pitch the 9th... but then he usually gets the job done (even with the measly K rates). What makes him so effective?

Ian: I think a lot of Detroit fans often ask the same question. But it seems like Jones succeeds largely through stubbornness and conviction. He knows what kind of pitcher he is, so he pitches to contact and lets his defense make the plays. If Jones tried to blow fastballs by everyone, he'd get hammered out there. But as long as he keeps his ball moving, so the batters can't square it up, he'll be effective. He'll allow at least one baserunner per save situation, but then induce a double-play grounder to close out the game. A few times a season, he'll have a meltdown and blow a three-run lead. Yet he comes right back the next day, just as all the good relievers do.

(5) Where do you see the Tigers finishing up this season? Who do you think are their main competitors in the Central?

Ian: It probably looks like a hometown pick, but I really do think the Tigers are the best team in the AL Central and will eventually finish on top. With Kenny Rogers' injury, they no longer have the best starting rotation in the division, but I'd still like their top four over anyone else's. What I'm most encouraged by - and what should worry the other teams in the Central - is that they've been competitive despite disappointing production from their lineup and inconsistent pitching from the bullpen. Sheffield should eventually start hitting, and if Casey doesn't, the Tigers will somehow upgrade the position. And the starting rotation will be bolstered either by Rogers' return, or a call-up from the minors, such as Virgil Vasquez or Andrew Miller. So ultimately, this team is in good shape.


-----------------------------------------

Once again much thanks to Ian from Bless You Boys and Sweaty Men Endeavors. Ian does great work on the Tigers, Detroit in general, and really all of sports. So be sure to check him out!

This is why I place no significance in MLB Awards

Here's a quote from Aarom Gleeman that pretty much tells me all I need to know about the MVP Awards process:

The single most ridiculous of those five Mauer-less ballots without question comes from Joe Cowley, who covers the White Sox for the Chicago Sun-Times. Cowley somehow couldn't find a place for the MLB batting champion on his ballot, but did see fit to include a different catcher: Chicago's own A.J. Pierzynski (whom Cowley no doubt relied upon for juicy quotes throughout the season). For those of you wondering, here's how the two catchers compare:

Mauer beat Pierzynski by 52 points in batting average, 96 points in on-base percentage, and 71 points in slugging percentage, all while coming to the plate 65 more times. Mauer also caught the league's second-best pitching staff and threw out 38 percent of would-be basestealers, while Pierzynski caught a staff that surrendered 111 more runs and threw out just 22 percent of basestealers. Faced with that overwhelming evidence, Cowley gave Pierzynski a 10th-place vote and left Mauer off his ballot.

John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer also left Mauer off his ballot, yet found room for Mariners left fielder Raul Ibanez, whose OPS was 67 points lower than Mauer's without even accounting for the massive difference in their defensive value. Joe Roderick, who covers the A's for the Contra Costa Times, left Mauer off his ballot while giving a second-place vote to Oakland's Frank Thomas and a 10th-place vote to Tejada, who won his aforementioned 2002 AL MVP with the A's.

Even Jason Williams, who covered Mauer all season for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, narrowly found room for him on his ballot with a 10th-place vote. Among the nine players Williams deemed more valuable than Mauer were four designated hitters. That's right, one of two Twins beat writers given a vote for AL MVP felt that four guys who didn't even play defense were more valuable than a Gold Glove-caliber catcher who batted .347. For better or worse, these are the people who made Morneau MVP.

2006 American League Awards

I don't have the energy to put all this all in one post, and it would get very long, so I'll just cut it in half, and go for the American League awards now:

MVP
More than any other year, there are lots and lots of legitimate candidates. Heck, I've seen guys that are as high as 1 and as low as 8 or 9 on some ballots... the class is that strong. Before he got hurt, I would have put Travis Hafner as my MVP. Obviously he doesn't play defense, but he was the best hitter in the American League this year when he was healthy. Manny Ramirez was also fantastic at the plate, but he had even less ABs than Hafner.

The toughest thing about this crop of candidates is that all of them are so similiar... Hafner, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, etc. For the most part, they're very good hitting 1B/DH. Other than Morneau, none of those guys contributes at all in the field.

Then there's the guys that contribute greatly not only at the plate but in the field. Joe Mauer is a gold-glove caliaber backstop, Derek Jeter plays an average SS, Grady Sizemore is a great defensive CF, and Jermaine Dye has a cannon in right. Personally I tend to favor these guys a bit (as you'll notice).

So who's my MVP? I'll give you a hint, he put up a .429 OBP while playing catcher. To a lot of Twins fans, Joe Mauer wasn't even the MVP of the Twins... but I'd obviously disagree. Mauer was the rock in the lineup, posting a great OBP at #3. Also, while he didn't hit a lot of HR, he did hit a good amount of doubles, which helped contribute to a solid SLG. He finished 7th in the league in OPS (right above Morneau). Oh yeah, and he played great defense at the most demanding defensive position.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Derek Jeter
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Jermaine Dye
5. Johan Santana

Cy Young
There's really no debate up top. Johan led the league in Wins, ERA, Ks, and IP. If he doesn't win the Cy, we'll know for sure the award is a sham. This should be his 3rd straight, but I guess I'll have to settle for #2.

After that is where things start to get real hazy. Kelvim Escobar (11-14) is 6th in the league in ERA. CC Sabathia, John Lackey, and Mike Mussina also deserve some consideration.

But the other factor is closers. Normally, I would say closers don't deserve to be in the discussion. Pitching 70 innings is just not as valuable as pitching 200 innings. However, some things are at work here. For one, there were a lot of legitimately great closers this year. K-Rod, Mariano Rivera, Jonathon Papelbon, Joe Nathan, BJ Ryan, and JJ Putz were all unvelievable this year. Combine that with mediocre starting pitching, and I think some closers deserve to at least be in the discussion.

1. Johan Santana
2. Roy Halladay
3. Mike Mussina
4. JJ Putz
5. CC Sabathia

Rookie of the Year
If only Francisco Liriano hadn't gotten hurt. Then we'd be talking about him as the easy ROY and a Cy Young candidate. He was that dominant this year. But there's no need to dwell on the past. Health was a big issue for the class... Papelbon also missed extensive time. Which I why I like Verlander the one pitcher to throw over 125 innings, and he threw 186. That's a huge margin.

After that, Liriano and Weaver were great in about 120 innings. Papelbon was lights out in the pen. Ditto for Joel Zumaya. In any other year, these guys are worthy winners. Nick Markakis was excellent as well. But I think the top 5 spots all belong to pitchers this year, who, if healthy, can wreak havoc in the AL for year.

1. Justin Verlander
2. Jonathon Papelbon
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Jered Weaver
5. Joel Zumaya

Any egregious errors?

is it really over?

6 months of Twins baseball. A 25-33 start, falling as many as 12.5 games back of the division lead, only to comeback and dramatically take the lead on the final day of the season. A batting champ, the probably Cy Young, and MVP candidates.

All erased in 3 games over the span of 3 games.

Did that really just happen? Can it really be over so quickly? What the heck happened?

I could talk at length about why the Twins lost this series, but I'll stick to this quick analysis, and stop with the negatives. Heck, there wasn't a whole lot of positives for the series. I don't understand how a team that won 96 games could look so bad. But I digress.

I'll just focus on what a fun and exciting season this was for the Twins. The aforementioned 96 wins and AL Central title. But that's just a small part of what made this the most fun season following the Twins of my life. What did I love about these Twins? Well, since you asked:

- Joe Mauer. What else needs to be said? The first catcher to lead the MLB in batting while playing Gold Glove caliber defense behind the plate. At age 23. It was a pleasure to watch Joe play baseball day in and day out.

- Another fantastic season for Johan Cytana. He got the pitching triple crown which all but locks up his 2nd Cy Young award. This should be his 3rd straight Cy Young, but voters are stupid.

- The electricity of Francisco Liriano. When he was on the mound, there was no one better in the MLB this year. Great fastball, great changeup, and an absolutely devastating slider. If he was healthy, things might have been a lot different. Come back healthy Francisco.

- Justin Morneau becoming the star everyone thought he'd be. Everyone knew the power was always there, but he became a very complete hitter, hitting to all fields. One of the most fun guys to watch hit the ball.

- The effort of Torii Hunter. Sure, he can make mistakes (see: Game 2). And he's lost a step defensively. And he can take some bad swings at the plate. But he gives it all whenever he's out there, and there's not much better about baseball than watching him play baseball. Friday may have been his last game in a Twins uniform... if that's the case, thanks for the memories Torii.

- Brad Radke. You can't say enough about this guy. Pitching with a torn labrum is bad enough, but he was also gutting it out with a stress fracture in his throwing shoulder. He couldn't do anything without pain, yet he was pitching great start after start, and truly left everything he had. Thank you Brad Radke, for a great season and a great career.

- Covering everything on Thank You Brian Sabean. I wrote about the Minnesota Twins almost every day for the last 4 months... which made me appreciate the good times more. I don't know if I'll be back next year with TYBS, but hopefully time permits it, because it was really a great experience.

So while the last 3 games were not exactly the storybook ending everyone was hoping for, it was an unbelievable and unforgettable season, and one I won't soon forget. From the division title to winning 96 games to getting back to the playoffs, it was just about everything I could ask for. And with a young team, we might be back here again next year.

Thanks for reading, thanks for letting me ramble, and see you in a few days. While it was a great year that I'll look back fondly on, it's still a tough pill to swallow being swept. So I'll mope for a few days, and start looking forward to next year, where I can only hope for half the excitement this year brought.

2006 MLB Playoff Predictions

Let's jump right in:

ALDS

Yankees vs. Tigers - Honestly, I just can't see the Tigers beating the Yankees. The Yankees have the best lineup possibly ever, and the Tigers pitching has not been the same as it was in the first half of the year. The Tigers lineup is impatient, which should play into the hands of the Yanks starters. Plus, Detroit has to be feeling down after being swept by the Royals to lose the division. YANKEES IN 3.

Twins vs. Athletics - I previewed this more extensively elsewhere, but I do think the As are getting disrespected a little bit. Zito-Loaiza-Harden-Haren can be a very good rotation, and the bullpen is very solid. However, the Twins still have Johan, and he's pretty good. Plus, if it gets down to the 7th inning and the Twins have runners on and they have to get Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau, who do they go with? I'm not sure either. TWINS IN 5.

NLDS

Padres vs. Cardinals - The Cardinals limp into the playoffs with 1 good starter (who hasn't been all that great lately) and a mediocre bullpen. Meanwhile, the Padres have very solid starting pitching, a reliable bullpen, and a solid lineup. Albert Pujols is unbelievable, but he can't do it without any help. PADRES IN 4.

Mets vs. Dodgers - With Pedro Martinez, the Mets are the clear favorite to win the NL. Without him, they're just another team with mediocre starting pitching. Who's their ace? Tom Glavine and his 4.33 ERA since the AS break? Orlando Hernandez and his 4.66 ERA? The Mets have the best lineup in the NL, but I just don't think they have the starting pitching to get it done against a solid, pesky Dodgers lineup. DODGERS IN 5.

ALCS

Yankees vs. Twins - Can the Twins score enough runs? That's what it comes down to. Against any pitcher not named Johan Santana, we know the Yankees will get theirs. But can the Twins take advantage of the mediocre starting pitching of the Yanks? Can Boof Bonser and Brad Radke give the Twins 6 good innings and then turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball? As much as I'd love to see it and will be rooting like none other if this matchup does happen, I'm not sure they can. YANKEES IN 6.

NLCS

Dodgers vs. Padres - All of San Diego's batting stats are a bit skewed because of their home ballpark, but I do think the Dodgers have the better, more balanced offense. Kenny Lofton and Rafael Furcal set the table, and then guys like JD Drew, Nomar Garciaparra, and Jeff Kent are more than capable of bringing them in. Pitching wise, the Padres have the best in the NL, with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Woody Williams, and even Clay Hensley providing stability. The rotation is so good they don't even know who'll be starting Game 1 yet. They've also got a great bullpen, with Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink, and Cla Meredith. However, the Dodgers pitching is pretty solid as well... which is why they're my slight favorite here. DODGERS IN 7.

WORLD SERIES

Yankees vs. Dodgers - A series only the TV networks could love! Two very solid offenses, two decent pitching staffs. However, I just don't think the Dodgers (or any NL team) has enough pitching or hitting to match up with the Yankees. If the As/Twins don't take out the Yankees, nobody does. I'd put money on that. YANKEES IN 5.

I do bite my thumb at you, MLB schedule-makers

Twins/A's game on Tuesday: Noon CDT.
Twins/A's game on Wednesday: Noon CDT.

Looks like I'll be missing a couple classes this week.

The 2006 AL Central Champions... the Minnesota Twins!

When the Twins were 25-33 and 10.5 games out of first place behind the MLB-leading Detroit Tigers in early June, I didn't like their chances.

When the Twins played great baseball going into the All-Star break but hardly made up any ground on the Detroit Tigers, I didn't like their chances.

When the Twins were 1 game back heading into the final week of the regular season, and needed 2 more win than Detroit in the final 6 games to win the division, I was cautiously optimistic.

When the Twins were tied with the Tigers going into the final series of the season, with the Twins taking on Chicago and the Tigers taking on Kansas City, I was cautiously optimistic.

When it came down to Sunday, with the Twins needing Carlos Silva to beat the White Sox and Odalis Perez to beat the Tigers, I wasn't too optimistic.

When the Tigers jumped out to a 6-0 lead over Kansas City and the White Sox took a 1-0 lead over Minnesota, I was pretty much resigned to facing the Yankees in Round 1.

When the Tigers loaded the bases in the bottom of the 12th inning with 1 out, I was preparing myself for the Yankees.

So when the Royals beat the Tigers 10-8 to seal the division title for the Twins, I could hardly believe it.

96-66. American League Central Division Champions. It defies logic. But then, so has this whole season for Minnesota.

See you in the playoffs.

Twins Magic Number: 0

(I apologize in advance for the fanboy-esque post... I'm just a little excited right now!)

After starting the year at 25-33, who would have thought the playoffs would be in the cards for the Twins? Admittedly, probably not me. But I'll admit the hearing the words "The Twins are going to the playoffs," is music to my ears.

With the Twins 8-1 win over the Royals and the White Sox 14-1 loss to the Indians (way to go out with a bang!) the Twins are assured of at least the Wildcard. The magic number is 0.

Meanwhile, the race for the division is still on. With 6 games to play, the Twins stand 1 (one) game out from the Tigers. This is a little misleading, however, because the Tigers have the tiebreaker. So in other words, if the Twins want to avoid a first round matchup with the Bronx Bombers, they have to win 2 more games than the Tigers do in the last week. The odds are against them, but then, the odds have been against them all year.

In the clincher, the Twins followed the same formula they followed all year... young pitcher on the mound, "pirahnas" getting on base, and the mashers in the middle driving them in. Boof Bonser was once again excellent, and appears (at least in my eyes) to have a strangleholdon the #2 spot in the rotation. With 6.1 good innings, his record is now at 7-5 with an ERA of 4.15. Thank You Brian Sabean indeed!

Offensively, the Twins were patient, drawing 6 walks. But they also got the power. Justin Morneau cracked his 34th HR of the year, and is now at 129 RBI, 2nd most in the AL. Torii Hunter also hit his 30th HR, meaning that after so many years of not having a HR hitter, the Twins have 2 this year. Funny how that works. Another possible milestone for Hunter is that he is now close to reaching 100 RBI. He needs just 5 in the last 6 games to become the 3rd Twins player (Morneau, Cuddyer) to reach that mark this year. Should we resign Torii? I don't know. But it's been fun watching him play for the last month?

In the race for the batting title, Joe Mauer helped his cause with a 2/3 day, raising the average to .349. His main competitors both had good days as well - Derek Jeter went 2/4 to raise the average to .340, and Robinson Cano went 2/4, leaving his average at .342. With 6 games left, this looks like it will be a very tight race, although it is still Mauer's to lose, obviously.

But with the playoff spot clinched, there's no need to worry about the batting title, awards, or anything else. Just enjoy what a marvelous ride it's been so far, and hope that the good times continue.

One thing is for sure... it's a good time to be a Twins fan!

Assessing the Playoff and Division Races

With 2 weeks left in the MLB season, now's a good time to take a look at who's winning the divisions, who's in the Wildcard lead in each League, and who has a chance to make the playoffs.

AL East: This one is pretty much over. Yankees hold a 10 game lead with 12 games left to play. I've really been amazed at how quickly the Sox have fallen... they were leading if I recall at the All-Star break, and then they made no moves at the deadline, and then the 5-game sweep, and it's been all downhill from there. One semi-interesting note here is the Jays are only 2 games behind Boston for 2nd in the division, and they haven't been there for a while.

AL Central/Wildcard: I combine these only because it looks pretty certain that the Wildcard winner will be coming out... which leaves 2 spots open for 3 teams. As of right now, the Tigers are in the lead, the Twins are 1.5 behind, and the Sox are 6 behind. Here are the remaining schedules:

Twins: @ BOS (3), @ BAL (3), KC (4), CHI (3)
Tigers: @ CHI (2), @ BAL (1), @ KC (3), TOR (3), KC (3)
White Sox: DET (2), SEA (4), @CLE (3), @MIN (3)

The way all of these teams are playing right now, I think Chicago is the odd team out. Their pitching has been inconsistent, and they don't have quite enough offense to make up for it, which is why they're 4-6 in their last 10 and things aren't getting any better. For the division title, I think the Tigers have built up a little too big of a lead and their schedule is a little easier than the Twins. So I have the Tigers winning with the Twins taking the Wildcard.

AL West: A's lead by 6.5 games and they have 13 games left (12 games left for the Angels)... it's more possible for a comeback here than the AL East, but it would take a collossal collapse and I just don't see that happening, as the A's are pitching pretty well and playing good baseball.

NL East: The Mets just clinched Monday... so move along, nothing to see here.

NL Central: Despite a pretty mediocre team outside of Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have managed to build up a 7 game lead in the division, mostly thanks to the extreme awfulness of everyone else. 2nd place Cincy is 4 games under .500.

NL West: And finally an interesting race. It's been back-and-forth lately, but as of now it's the Dodgers that hold a 1/2 game edge in the division over the Padres. A 3rd team, the Giants, is still holding out some hope as well, 4.5 games back. I like the Padres here, because I think their pitching is a little better than the Dodgers.

NL Wildcard: This is potentially the most interesting race... the Giants and Marlins are just barely in the discussion, but they pretty much have to win out at this point. So it'll basically come down to whoevers loses the West and the Phillies. Right now the Padres hold a 1.5 game lead on the Phils. It looks like the Dodgers and Phillies have better overall pitching than the Phils, but the Phils do have Ryan Howard, who's been out of his mind since the All-Star break. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll get quite enough help, which I why I like the loser of the West (the Dodgers in my predictions here) to get the consolation prize of the Wildcard.

Agree with the picks? Disagree with the picks?

too depressed to write anything

From the Star Tribune:

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota's rookie All-Star, is out indefinitely with what appears to be a left elbow injury.

---------------------------------------------

In a quiet postgame clubhouse, Liriano, 22, seemed on the verge of tears, and his voice crackled as he described the pain, pointing to the inside of the elbow this time, beneath the muscle and possibly in the joint.

---------------------------------------------

"I couldn't even throw the fastball, slider, changeup anything," Liriano said. "It bothered me every pitch I threw."

From the Twins website:

But it's not even close to the type of blow that the Twins could receive in the coming days if the news on starter Francisco Liriano is as bad as it appears to be.

Liriano pitched just four innings in the club's 9-3 loss to the Tigers at Comerica Park on Monday night before being pulled due to pain near his left elbow that flared up again.

The Twins 22-year-old rookie phenom was skipped over for his last start, due to the inflammation that he had in his left forearm. An MRI revealed no structural damage to the arm and the thought was that 10 days of rest would solve the problem.

But this time, the pain returned in what Liriano deemed a different spot and it seems to be worse than before. It's something that has even caused Liriano to be a bit scared of what may be causing the pain.

"I am, because it really bothered me a lot and I don't know what it is," Liriano said of being more concerned than he was before. "I couldn't throw my fastball, changeup, slider -- it bothered me on every pitch I throw.

"It really bothers me because it's getting worse."

UPDATE: As far as this goes, things don't appear to be quite as bad as I was initially bracing myself for... there's definitely a chance he's done for the year, but worse things have happened. As long as there's no long-term problems, I'm ok and too depressed about it anymore!

Interview with a Tigers fan

At one point I declared Ian from Sweaty Men Endeavors to be my superior in all things, and for one day at least, he will take over this blog.

With the Twins and Tigers starting a 3-game series today in Minnesta, I have asked Ian 5 questions I wanted to know about the Tigers, and he asked me 5 questions about the Twins (which you'll be able to see at his blog). So alas, here they are, helping you learn a little bit more about those MLB-leading Tigers.

Me: What's the single biggest reason for the Tigers surge from middle-of-the-pack to best team in baseball?
Ian: Pitching, pitching, pitching. Virtually every night, the Tigers get a quality start, so even when the lineup needs a few innings to put some runs on the board, they're still in the game. I think the starters also benefit from knowing they only have to go about six innings before the game is turned over to the bullpen, and those guys don't give up the lead very often. The whole staff is pretty relentless on the opposition. Just when those hitters think they might have Kenny Rogers figured out for their third trip to the plate, here comes Joel Zumaya firing rockets. The bullpen can give hitters a different look each time they're up. Considering how poor the pitching has been in Detroit over the years, it's really been amazing to watch.

Me: Should the Tigers make a big move and acquire a guy like Alfonso Soriano, Bobby Abreu, or Carlos Lee?
Ian: You know, I might be in the minority on this, but I lean toward the "If it ain't broke, why fix it?" mindset. It's not so much that I don't want to see the Tigers give up top pitching prospects, because that's one reason you build up that kind of commodity. And Dave Dombrowski's done a great job of keeping that pipeline fresh. The Tigers have just been playing so well that you almost can't imagine they could get better.

Yet there's also the side that says you have to go for it when you get the chance. Between the development of the younger players and the solid play from the veterans, everything's come together so well this season, and there's no guarantee it'll happen again. These windows don't stay open very long, so if the Tigers have a chance to make themselves a better team, one that contends for a championship, then they absolutely should do it. Even if it costs them a piece of the future. Abreu seems like he'd be the best fit with his left-handed bat, speed, defense, and on-base percentage. Yet Soriano - who's been the hot name, because you know Washington wants and needs to trade him - would be leading the team in virtually every offensive category if he were here.

Ultimately, I think the Tigers will make a move that looks underwhelming on paper - bringing in a Matt Stairs-John Mabry-David Dellucci type of player - but will fill an important role for the Tigers, giving them a left-handed bat that Leyland can shuffle among the corner outfield spots and first base.

Me: Todd Jones has struggled a bit this year, while younger guys like Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney have been more consistent? Who should the Tigers closer be?
Ian: I know Jones has taken a lot of flack from fans because it's never easy with him and he doesn't inspire a lot of confidence when he comes in for the ninth inning. But he's been very good lately, getting a lot of 1-2-3 innings, while lowering his ERA and WHIP numbers. Meanwhile, Rodney's been shaky and walking a lot of hitters. Many people think something's wrong with his mechanics. I think it was Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press who said Jones is simply best suited for the ninth inning because he relies on fooling hitters and getting them to make contact. If the bases are loaded with one out in the seventh, Jones won't come in and strike out the next two batters, which is what you need in that situation. That's what Zumaya does.

Sabermetricians have often said that managers shouldn't just save their best relievers for the ninth inning, because that's not always when they're needed most, and Jim Leyland is proving them right. As silly as this might sound, the Tigers would waste Zumaya if they only used him as the closer. He helps the team more in his current role, striking out batters in tough situations, or going two innings when needed. Some of Jones' saves might come after three fly balls caught on the warning track, but he somehow gets those last three outs.

Me: If the Tigers make the playoffs, who should get the ball in Game 1?
Ian: If the playoffs started next week, I'd make Justin Verlander the guy for Game 1. He's been the Tigers' best starting pitcher lately. His last six starts have been dominant. But there's a lot of concern about him eventually breaking down as he pitches more innings than he ever has before. Kenny Rogers might make the most sense, in terms of experience, but history says he's not very good in the second half of the season.

So that leaves Jeremy Bonderman. He's the best combination of experience and youth, with the kind of stuff that can mow down a lineup early in a game and set a tone for the rest of the series. And if he didn't work out, then you can bring in a veteran like Rogers to start in Game 2 and hopefully provide a steadying influence for the pitching staff. Jim Leyland has a lot of options to play with for a seven-game series. It's exciting to think about.

Me: Who's winning the AL Wildcard (be honest)?
Ian: At this point, it's hard to pick against the Twins. They looked dead in April and May, but very quietly (at least from Detroit's vantage point) began to make a run. And it was like people began tapping each other on the shoulders, saying "Hey, do you see what Minnesota is doing?" Then the Twins were like that horde you could see a few miles away on the horizon. What is that? Are they coming? We'd better get ready. But now, after sweeping Chicago, the day many of us anticipated has finally arrived. They're tied with the White Sox, right behind the Yankees in the wild-card standings, and to the Tigers fans that have been paying attention, the Twins look scary as hell - especially with that starting pitching.

Having said all that, however, I'm still going with the White Sox. I know they've been in a tailspin since the All-Star break, and their starting pitching - especially Buehrle and Garcia - looks messy right now. But to me, they've been the best team in the AL Central from the beginning. I still can't believe they're as far behind the Tigers as they are. I almost have to slap myself each time I look at the standings. And if Kenny Williams can make a big deal at the trade deadline - something he's been very good at in the past - I think they'll turn things around and get right back in this. Not that they're out of it, of course. It's more like they fell back into a race with the Twins and Yankees. And it's going to be fun to watch for the rest of this season.

Friday's game starts at 7:10 CDT.

Who's going to the playoffs in the American League?

As of this writing, things are pretty tight in all races, as I suppose it to be expected at this time of year. Let's look at the standings and potential winners of each race:

EAST
Boston: -
New York: 1.5 GB
Toronto: 4.5 GB

CENTRAL
Detroit: -
Chicago: 4.5 GB
Minnesota: 12 GB

WEST
Oakland: -
Texas: -
LA/Anaheim: 1.5 GB
Seattle: 3.0 GB

WILDCARD
Chicago: -
New York: 4.0
Toronto: 7.0
Minnesota: 7.5

First let's get the AL West out of the way, because there's definitely only going to be one team in the playoffs from that division. Before the year I picked the A's to win the whole shebang, but now, well, I'm definitely have second thoughts. The pitching hasn't been that good, Rich Harden is never healthy, and they've had disappointments on offense (namely, the left side of the infield). Meanwhile, the Angels look to be moving up. They potentially have one of the top rotations in baseball (don't look now, but John Lackey is turning himself into a Cy Young contender). I like the Angels to take the West, especially if they let some of the young hitters play.

Next we move to the East, where it's sorta the same old song and dance. Sure, the Blue Jays are a very nice team, and they have the best starter in the division, but they need AJ Burnett to stay healthy, and I'm not betting on that. Which leaves the Sox and the Yanks. Historically, the Yanks almost always seem to come out ahead, and I like them to do it again and take the division. For one, look at the pitching. The Sox are led by Curt Schilling (who was impressive Saturday), but after that they have a struggling Josh Beckett, Wakefield, a rookie in Jon Lester, and Kyle Snyder (who is pitching tomorrow). Sure, Clement's on the DL right now, but he's been pretty awful so far this year.

The Yanks don't have anyone of Schilling's caliber, but Mussina has been pretty darn solid this year. Behind him, Johnson and Wang aren't exactly going to make anyone too confident, but they're solid. Jaret Wright has also been surprising capable so far this year. I'm not too high on Sidney Ponson in the AL, but the other 4 are better than the Red Sox 4 right now, IMO. Offensively, it's close to a wash, although the Sox do have an advantage with Sheff and Matsui still out (any idea when they'll be back). Neither bullpen (other than the closers) inspire much confidence either. If you force me to make a pick, I'll go with Yankees, but I'm not overly confident about it.

In the Central, the Tigers seem to never lose, which makes them difficult to catch. Even more, they've been exceptional on the road with a 33-19 mark. The Sox are 4.5 back, but they've still got a deep pitching staff, and with Jim Thome on the club (and Jermaine Dye having an excellent year), the lineup is more potent that last year. The Tigers pitching staff has been pretty dominant, but I think they're bound to slow down some. Kenny Rogers always struggles in the 2nd half, and his low SO totals are a little worrisome. Verlander's always not striking out enough batters. (Although in the Tigers defense, I think Jeremy Bonderman has gotten a little unlucky and we might see his ERA drop some). What does all this mean? It means I've got a weak vote cast for the White Sox to take the Central.

Which brings us down to the Wildcard, usually the most exciting race of them all. With my divisional picks, this would leave the Tigers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Twins in the mix. As much as I'd love for the Twins to win this - and they do have the pitching at the top to do it - I think the hole is a little too deep, and they don't have quite the offensive firepower to crawl back. The Blue Jays have the offensive firepower, but I don't think they have quite the pitching depth to come back.

Which leaves the Tigers and the Red Sox. For reasons mentioned above, I like the Tigers pitching staff better (although it's really time to put Rodney/Zumaya in the closer's role), and I like the Sox better offensively. In this case, I think pitching wins, and I have to give the Tigers the Wildcard.

So there you have it: the Yankees, White Sox, and Angels as your division winners, with the Tigers winning the Wildcard. Although I'm not putting any money on it. These should all be some fantastic races to watch down the stretch.

Looking back: My MLB Predictions

As we approach the halfway point of the year, I thought it might be cool to go back and look at some of the MLB Predictions I made before the season. (my pre-season picks in green)

East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devilrays

Hey, a good note to start off on! If only things stayed this well!

Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. *Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals

Well, I may as well have been dead wrong. I thought Detroit could contend for 3rd, but I obviously had no idea they'd be this good this quickly. For the Sox, the offense has been much better than I expected, with Thome and Dye being excellent middle-of-the-order hitters. The Twins are about where I thought they'd be, it's just that Detroit and Chicago have been too good!

West
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Anaheim Angels (none of that LA crap here)
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

Oakland is indeed on top like I thought, but I had no idea the Angels would struggle so much. I knew that in the past they were over-reliant on singles hitters, but on paper they looked to have nice talent at the Majors with lots of young, skilled players in the farm to step up if needed, but things obviously haven't worked out quite like that this year. Though I don't feel too bad about it.

EDIT: Although now that I look at the standings, with a couple of good games against Oakland, the Angels are now only 3 games back of Oakland. Baseball is a funny game.

East
1. New York Mets
2. *Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Well I was right on with the Mets, and dead wrong with the Braves. It was obvious that Atlanta was slowly becoming less and less talented as the years went on, and eventually they'd have to lose, but I didn't think it'd come this quickly and this harsh. The Marlins are also a little bit of a surprise... they're very young obviously, but the talent is coming along and they're playing some decent baseball.

Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

I don't even know what to make of this division, except that the Cubs were an awful pick. I'm not really sure what the heck I was thinking here. As for the big surprise, the Reds have been very solid. We knew the offense would be there, but raise your hand if you thought Bronson Arroyo would a first-half Cy Young candidate in the NL, and I'll give you a cookie.

West
1. LA Dodgers
2. San Fransisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

This division is a mess, really. I took another look at it in late May, but things haven't really cleared up since then. As of this writing, every team is separated by 5 games or less, with the Padres on top at 47-40, followed by the Dodgers two games back. It's really still too early to tell if my picks were anywhere close to being right, although with the pitching the Pads are showing it doesn't look like they'll fall down to 3rd.

AL MVP: Travis Hafner - the guy can just rake, and he's got a heck of a lineup around him. (Other Votes: Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols - Has officially replaced Bonds as the best hitter in the game. (Other Votes: David Wright)

Well, Hafner has been the best hitter in the American League so far, but that didn't even net him an All-Star appearance, so I'm not sure what to make of that. As for Pujols, even with the injury, he still looks like the front runner here, with David Wright in there if he falters.

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana - Scary thought, he should be just entering his prime. (Other Votes: Rich Harden, John Lackey)
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy - Still improving, and plays in great pitcher's park. (Other Votes: Roy Oswalt)

I believe I'm right with Johan, as he's been the most valuable pitcher in the AL so far, but we know how voters are. In the NL, Peavy and his ERA in the mid 4s is not looking like such a good pick, although that race appears to be wide open.

AL Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johima - Generally, older Japanese players fare well. (Other Votes: Fransisco Liriano)
NL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hermida - will be batting in Florida. 20/20 potential. (Other Votes: Connor Jackson)

Pretty awful picks by me to end this. Johjima can't even smell the top 3 at this point, and it's basically a pick'em between Liriano, Verlander, and Papelbon (take one guess as to who I'd vote for!). In the NL, Uggla, Fielder and Zimmerman appear to be well above the competition. Hermida has been a disappointment so far, but he's also had injury problems.

How have your picks been?!

Who should be starting in the All-Star Game: American League

And I'm back from my mini-break, fresh with my AL list of who should be starting the All-Star game.

But before I give that, let me say some words. Despite some obviously poor choices at some spots by the fans, I'm ok with the fans voting for the starters. After all, it should be about what the fans want to see. The only problem is that if you do that, you can't have the All-Star game count for anything. Including home-field adantage for the winning team. On one hand, you're sending the message that it's an exhibition by letting the fans vote who they want, but then on the other hand you're making it count for something. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

On another note, I liked the point that Harold Reynolds made on Baseball Tonight... maybe it's time to stop having the managers pick the teams. Let them manage the game (Ozzie earned that right with winning the World Series), but some of the choices are so bad that they really shouldn't be picking the team. /rant

Now let's get on with it. Here's the guys that should be starting at each position:

Catcher
Who it is: Ivan Rodriguez
Who it should be: Joe Mauer
Why? Ok, I admit that I am unbashed Mauer guy, but really, this one is obvious. I wrote earlier that he's the best catcher in the MLB, and he hasn't really done anything to change my mind. Let me just put it this way, Mauer's Batting AVG is 66 points better than Pudge's OBP. Oh yeah, and he slugs better as well. Not even close.

First Base
Who it is: David Ortiz
Who it should be: Travis Hafner
Why? If you consider David Ortiz a 1B, then so is Hafner. And Hafner has probably been the best hitter in the AL so far this year. Hafner's AVG, OBP, and SLG are all well above Ortiz', and he doesn't even play in a big hitter's park like Fenway. It's a shame when the best hitter in the League doesn't make the All-Star team (barring the 32nd man vote)

Second Base
Who it is: Mark Loretta
Who it should be: Brian Roberts
Why? Well, Roberts has simply been the 2B so far this year in the AL. Of course, he was injured so he doesn't have the AB that some other guys do, and I could certainly buy that argument for not putting him on there. Jose Lopez is slugging a lot better, but Roberts' .378 OBP is tops among 2B in the AL.

Third Base
Who it is: Alex Rodriguez
Who it should be: Alex Rodriguez
Why? You could make a case for Troy Glaus because of the power numbers, but the nod goes to Alex Rodriguez. He's not having quite his normal power year, but he still gets on base at a nice rate, and he plays good defense at the hot corner. The fans got it right here.

Shortstop
Who it is: Derek Jeter
Who it should be: Derek Jeter
Why? I could definitely see an argument for guys like Carlos Guillen or Miguel Tejada (don't look now, but Guillen has the highest OPS of the group), but I'd stick with Jeter. No, he doesn't play good defense, and he hasn't hit for a ton of power, but he does get on base. His .425 OBP is 6th in the American League, which is superb for a SS.

Outfield
Who it is: Manny Ramirez
Who it should be: Manny Ramirez
Why? Manny's just Manny, which is to say he's been one of the top hitters in the American League this year. He's getting on base at a great clip, and his .621 SLG is 4th in the American League. No, the defense isn't really up to par, but he's been more than good enough at the plate to make up for it.

Who it is: Vladimir Guerrero
Who it should be: Jermaine Dye
Why? Vlad got in strictly on reputation here, because he is not having an All-Star type year (18th in AL in OPS among OF). Meanwhile, Jermaine Dye has been superb for the Sox, as he's 5th in the AL in SLG at .606. He's cranked out 20 HR, his OBP is almost .400, and he's been one of the 3 best OF in the AL so far.

Who it is: Ichiro Suzuki
Who it should be: Vernon Wells
Why? Like Vlad, Ichiro gets in here because of his reputation. He's a great singles hitter and gets on base at a very good rate (and plays great defense), but the power gap between him and a guy like Vernon Wells is too much to ignore. Wells is slugging over 150 points higher than Ichiro, and is playing top notch defense in CF. He deserves the starting nod.

National League tomorrow!

What to watch: Francisco Liriano vs. Roger Clemens

Now, I'm not going to presume that I have any influence in what you watch... but if I do, take my recommendation and watch the Twins vs. the Astros. Why? Well, you should always watch the Twins. But more importantly, Twins phenom Franisco Liriano takes on Roger Clemens in his season-debut.

If you didn't know (or if you haven't been reading this blog!), Liriano is close to being my hero already, as well, as being a legitimate Rookie of the Year Contender (and possible All-Star), despite not even starting all year. The numbers are very impressive: 6-1, 2.16 ERA, more than 10 K/9 innings. Let me put it this way, if Liriano had enough innings to qualify, he'd be leading the Majors in ERA.

On the other hand, you have 5 fingers. But even deeper than that, "The Rocket" will of course make his 2006 Major League debut. He wasn't overly impressive in his 3 minor league starts, but you might remember him well for his 7 Cy Young Awards (oh yeah, and he was robbed last year).

In other words, just watch the game if you can. If you regret, I'll give you your money back.