Sunday, July 09, 2006

Looking back: My MLB Predictions

As we approach the halfway point of the year, I thought it might be cool to go back and look at some of the MLB Predictions I made before the season. (my pre-season picks in green)

East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devilrays

Hey, a good note to start off on! If only things stayed this well!

Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. *Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals

Well, I may as well have been dead wrong. I thought Detroit could contend for 3rd, but I obviously had no idea they'd be this good this quickly. For the Sox, the offense has been much better than I expected, with Thome and Dye being excellent middle-of-the-order hitters. The Twins are about where I thought they'd be, it's just that Detroit and Chicago have been too good!

West
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Anaheim Angels (none of that LA crap here)
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

Oakland is indeed on top like I thought, but I had no idea the Angels would struggle so much. I knew that in the past they were over-reliant on singles hitters, but on paper they looked to have nice talent at the Majors with lots of young, skilled players in the farm to step up if needed, but things obviously haven't worked out quite like that this year. Though I don't feel too bad about it.

EDIT: Although now that I look at the standings, with a couple of good games against Oakland, the Angels are now only 3 games back of Oakland. Baseball is a funny game.

East
1. New York Mets
2. *Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Well I was right on with the Mets, and dead wrong with the Braves. It was obvious that Atlanta was slowly becoming less and less talented as the years went on, and eventually they'd have to lose, but I didn't think it'd come this quickly and this harsh. The Marlins are also a little bit of a surprise... they're very young obviously, but the talent is coming along and they're playing some decent baseball.

Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

I don't even know what to make of this division, except that the Cubs were an awful pick. I'm not really sure what the heck I was thinking here. As for the big surprise, the Reds have been very solid. We knew the offense would be there, but raise your hand if you thought Bronson Arroyo would a first-half Cy Young candidate in the NL, and I'll give you a cookie.

West
1. LA Dodgers
2. San Fransisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

This division is a mess, really. I took another look at it in late May, but things haven't really cleared up since then. As of this writing, every team is separated by 5 games or less, with the Padres on top at 47-40, followed by the Dodgers two games back. It's really still too early to tell if my picks were anywhere close to being right, although with the pitching the Pads are showing it doesn't look like they'll fall down to 3rd.

AL MVP: Travis Hafner - the guy can just rake, and he's got a heck of a lineup around him. (Other Votes: Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols - Has officially replaced Bonds as the best hitter in the game. (Other Votes: David Wright)

Well, Hafner has been the best hitter in the American League so far, but that didn't even net him an All-Star appearance, so I'm not sure what to make of that. As for Pujols, even with the injury, he still looks like the front runner here, with David Wright in there if he falters.

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana - Scary thought, he should be just entering his prime. (Other Votes: Rich Harden, John Lackey)
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy - Still improving, and plays in great pitcher's park. (Other Votes: Roy Oswalt)

I believe I'm right with Johan, as he's been the most valuable pitcher in the AL so far, but we know how voters are. In the NL, Peavy and his ERA in the mid 4s is not looking like such a good pick, although that race appears to be wide open.

AL Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johima - Generally, older Japanese players fare well. (Other Votes: Fransisco Liriano)
NL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hermida - will be batting in Florida. 20/20 potential. (Other Votes: Connor Jackson)

Pretty awful picks by me to end this. Johjima can't even smell the top 3 at this point, and it's basically a pick'em between Liriano, Verlander, and Papelbon (take one guess as to who I'd vote for!). In the NL, Uggla, Fielder and Zimmerman appear to be well above the competition. Hermida has been a disappointment so far, but he's also had injury problems.

How have your picks been?!

1 comment:

kampy said...

Big Papi might have a problem with your anointing Hafner the best AL hitter in the first half... his average isn't there because of the shift, but the numbers and clutch hits sure are.