Sunday, September 02, 2007

NFL Week: Why the Vikings will be better than people think

All of this week I will be focusing on the NFL and giving my previews and picks, since the season starts Thursday (with what should be a fantastic game).

But first, let me talk about my favorite team, the Minnesota Vikings, and why I think they will be a lot better than anyone expects. As in, competing for a Wildcard spot good.

First, the defense. It should be really good, and that starts everything. Last year it was historically good against the run, and mediocre against the pass for a couple of reasons. One, they had no pass rush. The D-Line simply did not get pressure on the QB. This year, Ray Edwards will be starting right away, and he has the potential for double-digit sacks. He's explosive, fast, and quick off the edge. Also contributing on the Line is Brian Robison and Erasmus James, both of which were not here last year (Robison is a rookie, James was hurt). Leslie Frazier also really likes to blitz, which will add pressure because the LBs are pretty quick.

Another problem was Fred Smoot, who is now departed. He was really bad last year. Cedric Griffin will be starting, and rookie Marcus McCauley is looking really good as a nickelback. I think they will be better at getting to the passer, which could turn this in a top 5-10 defense in the NFL.

Offensively, there are concerns, but there is talent.

Things all start with the running game, which is good. The O-Line should be improved with a year to gel... the McKinnie-Hutchinson-Birk part of the Line could be the best LT-LG-C combo in the League, at least on paper. From the RB standpoint, there is a lot of talent. Chester Taylor had over 1200 yards last year (as well as being dependable receiver), and he won't even be the most talented RB in Minnesota. That would be Adrian Peterson, my pick for the Rookie of the Year.

That just means that QB Tarvaris Jackson needs to keep defenses honest, and I really think he can do that. He's very unproven, which is why the Vikings are being rated so low (and it's hard to argue with people who say he is raw), but he has improved immensely. It was only preseason, but he was making good, quick reads. He has a strong arm, and has the mobility to make plays with his feet. There will definitely be ups-and-downs (in no small part because the WR corps is inexperienced and unproven), but I love his talent.

With the defense and running game, Tarvaris Jackson needs only to be average to make this a competitive football team. I really think he can do that. I think the Vikings will be a very tough team to play, and will be in the hunt for the Wilcard.

Am I delusional? Do I have a reason to be so optimistic? I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Vikings' chances this season.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree 100% with you. Perhaps with the increasing popularity of "fantasy" sports teams some people have forgotten that football is ultimately a TEAM GAME!!!! While no one seems to notice the Vikings seem to be following the Bears' receipe for a consistant powerful TEAM. They have 1)built a defense, 2)drafted a talented and for now erratic-learning QB, 3) a powerful rushing game while stating the 4) "the passing game will come in time." I want to throw up every time I hear people whining that none of the receivers look like Moss (who gained most of his stats playing against cream puff defenses of Lions, Packers and [Bad Defesne] Bears- Oh my!!!)or a quarterback like Culpepper (who failed to read defenses completed a lot of passes to opponents and had fumblitus after Moss left. Those players looked great on "fantasy teams" but how many NFC North Championships or Super Bowls did these teams win? None! Why, because the real NFL is real football and not fantasy! The Vikings have the making of very good, young team that could, with breaks, become a force in the NFC for years to come. The Bears, who still have questions about Grossman and Benson as well as issues on defense with Briggs and the talented Tommie Harris' leg had a soft schedule a year ago and also will have to watch out for improved Lions and the venerable Favre. I like the Vikings' chances to content for the NFC North title and also the playoffs.

Anonymous said...

I agree with your Vikings assesment with one big "But". If they are 1-3 going into Week 5 they are going to be 2-6 or 1-7. Week 5-8 is the meat of the schedule & they will be a huge underdog in all 4 games. If they can take 3 out of the first 4 they can be 4-4 at the halfway point and compete for a wild card from there.

Anonymous said...

Very good points, but lets remember this. The team will still have to score to win games. The vikes offense will be similar to the vikes defense of last year... one dimentional. Last year teams gave up on running the ball cuz they had hours to pick apart the defense. Teams will be playing the run this year like they played for the pass last year. T-Jack needs to be a little better than ordinary for the vikings to be successful. Not Pro-bowl but respectable. But than again, Baltimore won a superbowl with Trent Dilfer at QB. It is a toss up. If the vikes can stay healthy they have a great shot in the watered down NFC. I personally feel that the vikes are preparing for the next few years to really make a statement about who they are and who they are not anymore(Smoot and Culpepper's "love boat") Dead weight is gone, and they are building right.

Anonymous said...

Vikings will surprise!10-6 is not out of the question. Stong running game, smart Qbing by Jackson. Stout D. Pack and Lions weak Beras are beatable. GO VIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I have a few issues with the first comment. First, Culpepper always had fumbleitis. Second, yes Moss got most of his stats against the teams he played the most against. But he lit up almost everyone. During a one 4 week stretch he tallied a combined 473 yards against NYG, Pitt, and Tenn (although 25 yds against Chi in that stretch). I didn't include the 144 yds against the Lions after Tenn in that number. Third, Chicago is taking the Lebron James road to the Super Bowl, which is playing in the horribly outmatch division/conference. Fourth, Childress is a horrible coach. Its hard for someone in MN to see, but Childress is more concern about being perceived as the big bad new sheriff in town then he is about making smart coaching decisions. When he got into that pissing match right away with Culpepper over his rehabing in Florida instead of MN I dropped the team after being a life long fan. That wasnt about rehabing or anything else, he was forced out and made to look like the bad guy. This team reminds me of the movie Major League, where the new owner tries everything in her power to tank the season so she has an excuse to move the team to LA. Since they play in the worst division in football and they have a great new running back they may win up to 5 games this year. When they become the Los Angeles Vikings then they'll maybe they'll make smart decisions again and become a contender.

Kurmudge said...

Oh heavens, Anonymous, did Childress refuse to marry your sister?

The ire against Childress among the fever swamps of Viking fans is breathtaking. In the past year, I have learned, from reading the trenchant posts at places such as KFAN's Rube Chat and the Strib blog comments sections, that 1) Mike Tice had the team one step from the Super Bowl in 2005, 2) that Culpepper was better than every QB in the NFL except for maybe Manning, 3) that Randy Moss was driven out of town for no particular reason (this conflicts with the Tice brilliance of #1), that all Childress had to do was stay the course and championships were surely ours, and so on.

The reality was that the team was getting old and had to be rebuilt again, starting with Culpepper, who was (and is) a mediocrity who can't handle pressure. Here in Mn he initially had great WR security blankets to bail him out, showed his panic mode in Miami (same as his panic in the famous 41-0 NFC championship game), and he will actually be all right in Oakland purely because the pressure's completely off of him. He behaved like a childish jerk when he was injured in 2005, because the team played better without him, which bruised his overactive ego.

And the team was going nowhere until the defense got serious and some discipline showed up as the first order of business. That means that those who don't want to go with the team concept (Marcus Robinson in addition to Culpepper) should head out the door.

Does that make it take a little bit longer to be competitive? Sure. Unless you really get lucky. Like Belichek and NE- the coach there is probably the best in decades at putting together and sustaining an effective defense. His offense wins for one reason- he got lucky because the world ignored Tom Brady and left him available in the sixth round. Then because of injury, Brady got to play. The rest, as they say, is history.

If NE was that smart, they would have drafted Brady in at least the fourth round to make sure that he didn't get away, and started grooming him as the starter right away. Instead, Bledsoe got hurt and NE stumbled into Nirvana.

So, the Vikings will play OK defense, good enough to win if they can score. They will score enough if Rice matures very fast, Williamson hits the bench early, and Ferguson plays a lot (avoiding more injury), and most of all, if Tarvaris Jackson learns at a record speed, to read defenses on the fly instead of the standard means of mediocre QBs, going through some sort of checklist.

As Tarkenton pointed out 30 years ago, if you actually know how to play QB, there is no such thing as a primary receiver- there is someone you thought about in the huddle when setting up the formation, but the primary receiver is dictated to you by the defense, and the good signal-callers recognize the first change when under center and the rest of the scene as they drop back. You don't look for the original person, you look for the one who should now be open based on what you saw before the play began. The bad ones (Culpepper) can't understand what has happened as the play unfolded, others, such as McNabb (Brady, Brees, Hasselbeck, Favre, etc.), get it, and, more importantly, stay cool while executing what the play just dictated.

Time will tell which Jackson is.

Stefan Ming said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Stefan Ming said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Stefan Ming said...

The Vikings wont do squat. Every year Vikings fans are the same, they build up their team in the pre-season only to find themeselves saying at the end of the season: There's always next year...

Anonymous said...

I seriously cannot believe what I have read by you bloggers about the Vikes. How are the Vikes meant to be better this season than last other that the drafting of Adrian Peterson. Yes the running game and run defence is good as well as the offensive line but look at the rest of this teams flaws No.1- They have an unproven and inexperienced quartrback who has quite possibly the worst wide recievers in the NFL No.2-The pathetic pass defence has only slightly improved from last season and No.3- Their running game will not be as successful as it can be due to opposing defences having the luxury of stacking the box due to a poor passing game meaning less rushing yards. I can't see this team scoring more than 10 offensive points a game. If I was a fan (which I am not (go Packers)), I would be very happy if the team equalled last years win total.

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