Thursday, September 20, 2007

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 3

I'm hovering around the .500 mark... that's my goal for this year, but I wouldn't mind at least getting some type of cushion. Anyway, week 3 picks.

Cardinals (+8) over Ravens
I just don't trust the Ravens offense enough to cover an 8-point spread right now. I mean, they only scored 20 against the Bengals, and they tried to give the game to the Jets last week. I like them to win, but probably not cover.

Panthers (-3.5) over Falcons
I have a really hard time picking Panthers games... they're just so inconsistent from week to week. So this reflects more on my feelings about the Falcons rather than the Panthers.

Redskins (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants suck. That's about all that there is to it. Their defense has been terrible, Eli isn't quite 100%, and their starting RB is hurt. Other than that, they've had a great start to the year.

Rams (+3.5) over Bucs
I came into the season really thinking the Rams were going to be a solid team, and they've obviously been very disappointing. Things might be even tougher without Orlando Pace, but I'll put my faith in them for one more week.

Bengals (+3.5) over Seahawks
We all know about the defensive problems the Bengals had this week, but the Seahawks haven't exactly been tearing it up offensively thus far. I mean, the Cardinals held them to 20 points. I just think the Bengals offensive will be a little too explosive.

Chargers (-5) over Packers
Brett Favre has played well so far, but let's see how he does against a good defense. I'm still a bit skeptical about the Packers offense. Things won't get too much easier for LDT going against a good Packer defense, but he shouldn't be bottled up quite as much as in the past 2 weeks.

49ers (+9) over Steelers
I've been as big of a fan as anyone of the Steelers so far, but 9 points is a large spread against a solid 49ers team is a lot. I like the Steelers to win this game, but I think the Niners are solid enough on both sides of the ball to keep things interesting.

Lions (+6) over Eagles
I like the Eagles in this one, but they are banged up a bit defensively, and McNabb has been pretty atrocious thus far. The Lions played atrociously last week, but a lot of that had to do with JT O'Sullivan playing almost a full half, and he was awful. If Kitna is healthy, I'll take the Lions to cover.

Raiders (-3) Browns
A rejuvenated LaMont Jordan should have a big game against the hapless Browns defense. I just hope that I don't have to watch this game.

Jets (-3) over Dolphins
I have absolutely no idea what to think of this game. So I'll take the home team.

Patriots (-16.5) over Bills
The spread is a little large, but with the performance of the Patriots over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to argue. And it's hard to argue picking against them, especially with how poorly JP Losman has played thus far.

Vikings (+3) over Chiefs
Kelly Holcomb looks like he'll be the starter this week for the Vikings... that is probably good news, short term. Larry Johnson won't find many holes to run against in this Vikings defense.

Colts (-6) over Texans
The Texans have been very impressive so far, but they will be without Andre Johnson this week. That should cause some problems for Matt Schaub.

Broncos (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars are the other team that I hate picking their games... I just don't know what is going to happen with them week-to-week. I assume we'll see a heavy dose of MJD and Fred Taylor (especially against the Broncos real good pair of corners), but who knows. Not me. I'll take the Broncos and hope they don't burn me for the 3rd straight week.

Cowboys (+3) over Bears
Not real confident about this one, especially since it is in the Windy City. But the Bears have 1 offensive TD in 2 games, and that came on a pass to a backup O-Lineman. Hope the Bears D/ST can score enough to keep up with the Cowboys.

Saints (-4) over Titans
If Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and the rest of the Saints offense struggles for the 3rd straight week, it might officially be time for fantasy owners everywhere to worry.

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 15-15-2

9 comments:

Neil Joshi said...

The fact that you can confidently pick New England to cover when it faces a 16.5 point spread speaks to how dominant they have been so far. But, I must agree that they will cover that enormous spread against the terrible Bills.

Kevin Hayward said...

.500 doesn't make you look like much of an expert, does it? :-)

Bryan said...

+1 to kevin hayward.
good to see you picked the good guys.

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