The playoffs are once again among us... some predictions for the first round.
EAST
1 Chicago over 8 Indiana in 4 games
The Bulls are the more complete, talented team. They are better offensively and defensively. This should be the least interesting series in round 1.
2 Miami over 7 Philadelphia in 5 games
As much as I want to see the 76ers pull one out, it is not going to happen. They don't have the firepower to hang with the star-studded Heat. Iggy can only guard LeBron or Wade.
3 Boston over 6 New York in 7 games
The Celtics come limping into the playoffs, trying to find an identity again after the Kendrick Perkins trade. Funny things can happen when the Knicks get into the playoffs... Game 7 in Boston, though, gives them the advantage.
4 Orlando over 5 Atlanta in 6 games
I'm not sold on the Magic as legitimate contenders, but I think they have the firepower to overtake the Hawks.
WEST
1 San Antonio over 8 Memphis in 6 games
This is an intriguing game since people think the Spurs are a weak 1 and the Griz a strong 8, but reports of an upset have been greatly exaggerated. The Spurs still have the big 3, and Manu Ginobili will be the best player in this series.
2 Los Angeles over 7 New Orleans in 5 games
If David West were healthy, this might be an interesting series. As it is, I don't see the Lakers faltering, even as poor as they have played down the stretch.
6 Portland over 3 Dallas in 7 games
The upset of the first round, I like the more athletic Blazers to take down Dallas, even though Dirk is playing as well as anyone in the NBA. The Mavs need Tyson Chandler to be huge in this series, but I am not sure he is up to it.
4 Oklahoma City over 5 Denver in 6 games
It should be the most entertaining series in the first round, as both teams get out and run. The difference is that one of these teams have Kevin Durant, and one does not.
What are your predictions?
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Sweet 16 Predictions
With 2 (or 3, depending on who you ask) rounds complete, it is time to make some predictions on who will make the Final Four.
EAST
1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
The Wildcats are just as talented as the Buckeyes, but there is no making up for the experience difference. When toughness is needed, I trust guys like William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler more than I trust anyone on Kentucky.
2 North Carolina over 11 Marquette
I think UNC caught a bit of a break when Marquette knocked off Syracuse, because UNC would have struggled with the Orange zone. Buzz Williams is one heck of a coach, so expect this to be a tight game, tighter than the talent difference would indicate. But in the end, Marquette doesn't have anyone as good as Harrison Barnes.
1 Ohio St. over 2 North Carolina
Much like the Buckeyes previous game against Kentucky, the Heels have the talent to stick with Ohio St., but not the experience. Buckeyes will not be denied, as nobody has looked better so far in the Tourney.
WEST
1 Duke over 5 Arizona
Arizona is very fortunate to have gotten this far. They needed a last second block by Derrick Williams to get past Memphis (when there arguably could have been a foul called on the rebound), and they needed a 5 second call on Texas (which arguably should have been a timeout granted for the Horns) before their winning basket. Derrick Williams is the X Factor, because he is playing as well as anyone in the country, but Duke just has too many horses for Arizona to stick around.
2 San Diego St over 3 UConn
The Aztecs won perhaps the worst March Madness double OT game in history, but don't hold it against them, they simply win. They got a bad game from their star and still beat a good Temple team. Against SDSU's big and athletic front line, Kemba Walker could find those holes to the basket closing more quickly than he is used to.
2 San Diego St over 1 Duke
If there is anyone that Duke is susceptible to, it would be an athletic team with a talented front line. The Aztecs fit that bill. While Duke will have a decided edge in the backcourt, look for SDSU's frontcourt to take command. Also, this game will be in Anaheim, making it a virtual home game for the winner of the Mountain West.
SOUTHWEST
1 Kansas over 12 Richmond
Richmond is a great story, but they simply don't have the horses to compete against KU. The Jayhawks will be able to throw plenty of athletes at Kevin Anderson, and the Spiders need big things from him to advance. Not going to happen.
11 VCU over 10 Florida St.
The Seminoles were extremely impressive in their win over Notre Dame, but they had perhaps their best offensive game of the year, something we have not seen consistently from them. I don't think we will see it again this week. VCU is playing as well as anyone.
1 Kansas over 11 VCU
Don't feel bad for Shaka Smart though, he appears ready to cash in on a big payday.
SOUTHEAST
4 Wisconsin over 8 Butler
Everyone (including myself) underrated the Badgers for their miserable Big 10 performance, but this is a very quality team. They don't turn the ball over, are efficient on offense, and have two studs in Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer. This will be a slow game and won't be one to tell the grandkids about, but I like Wisconsin. First to 50 wins.
3 BYU over 2 Florida
Don't underestimate Jimmer. Not sure how BYU will be able to slow down Florida inside, but I like them to get up and down, and for Jimmer to score just enough. Hopefully we get another game like their first round battle last season.
4 Wisconsin over 3 BYU
The Badgers become the second Big Ten team in the Final Four, as Bo Ryan shows his genius by controlling tempo and frustrating Jimmer.
What are your picks?
EAST
1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
The Wildcats are just as talented as the Buckeyes, but there is no making up for the experience difference. When toughness is needed, I trust guys like William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler more than I trust anyone on Kentucky.
2 North Carolina over 11 Marquette
I think UNC caught a bit of a break when Marquette knocked off Syracuse, because UNC would have struggled with the Orange zone. Buzz Williams is one heck of a coach, so expect this to be a tight game, tighter than the talent difference would indicate. But in the end, Marquette doesn't have anyone as good as Harrison Barnes.
1 Ohio St. over 2 North Carolina
Much like the Buckeyes previous game against Kentucky, the Heels have the talent to stick with Ohio St., but not the experience. Buckeyes will not be denied, as nobody has looked better so far in the Tourney.
WEST
1 Duke over 5 Arizona
Arizona is very fortunate to have gotten this far. They needed a last second block by Derrick Williams to get past Memphis (when there arguably could have been a foul called on the rebound), and they needed a 5 second call on Texas (which arguably should have been a timeout granted for the Horns) before their winning basket. Derrick Williams is the X Factor, because he is playing as well as anyone in the country, but Duke just has too many horses for Arizona to stick around.
2 San Diego St over 3 UConn
The Aztecs won perhaps the worst March Madness double OT game in history, but don't hold it against them, they simply win. They got a bad game from their star and still beat a good Temple team. Against SDSU's big and athletic front line, Kemba Walker could find those holes to the basket closing more quickly than he is used to.
2 San Diego St over 1 Duke
If there is anyone that Duke is susceptible to, it would be an athletic team with a talented front line. The Aztecs fit that bill. While Duke will have a decided edge in the backcourt, look for SDSU's frontcourt to take command. Also, this game will be in Anaheim, making it a virtual home game for the winner of the Mountain West.
SOUTHWEST
1 Kansas over 12 Richmond
Richmond is a great story, but they simply don't have the horses to compete against KU. The Jayhawks will be able to throw plenty of athletes at Kevin Anderson, and the Spiders need big things from him to advance. Not going to happen.
11 VCU over 10 Florida St.
The Seminoles were extremely impressive in their win over Notre Dame, but they had perhaps their best offensive game of the year, something we have not seen consistently from them. I don't think we will see it again this week. VCU is playing as well as anyone.
1 Kansas over 11 VCU
Don't feel bad for Shaka Smart though, he appears ready to cash in on a big payday.
SOUTHEAST
4 Wisconsin over 8 Butler
Everyone (including myself) underrated the Badgers for their miserable Big 10 performance, but this is a very quality team. They don't turn the ball over, are efficient on offense, and have two studs in Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer. This will be a slow game and won't be one to tell the grandkids about, but I like Wisconsin. First to 50 wins.
3 BYU over 2 Florida
Don't underestimate Jimmer. Not sure how BYU will be able to slow down Florida inside, but I like them to get up and down, and for Jimmer to score just enough. Hopefully we get another game like their first round battle last season.
4 Wisconsin over 3 BYU
The Badgers become the second Big Ten team in the Final Four, as Bo Ryan shows his genius by controlling tempo and frustrating Jimmer.
What are your picks?
Sunday, March 06, 2011
Early Conference Tournaments
On Saturday, three conference tournaments played their championship game, meaning 3 teams clinched their spot in The Big Dance. A quick look at all of them.
Big South - UNC-Asheville
They took care of top seeded Coastal Carolina, who was decimated by injuries and suspensions (they had 8 active players). UNC-Asheville was the 3 seed out of the Big South, and they took out 6th seed Charleston Southern and 7th seed High Point before taking down Coastal Carolina. Despite being a 19 win team, look for them to potentially be in the play-in game. They could win that, but their chances of winning a Tourney game are minimal.
Atlantic-Sun - Belmont
The Bruins are about to become very popular in America. That is because they are a 30 win team that has lost to Tennessee twice, Vanderbilt, and one fluky conference loss to Lipscomb. Other than that, they are unblemished on the season, and won their conference championship by 41 points over North Florida (who was the 6 seed in the conference). Look for Belmont to a be about a 13 seed and a popular upset choice in the first round.
Ohio Valley - Morehead St.
The Eagles are led by Kenneth Faried, one of the best big men in college basketball and one of the best rebounders in recent college basketball history. Though the much anticipated rematch with Murray St. did not happen, it was still an entertaining game in their win over Tennessee Tech. While I am not sure if they have the guard play to spring an upset (Demonte Harper notwithstanding), I don't think any team is going to be eager to take on Kenneth Faried in the first round of the Tournament. It is fitting for the OVC Player of the Year to end his career playing in the Tourney.
Do any of these teams have a chance to win a game in The Big Dance?
Big South - UNC-Asheville
They took care of top seeded Coastal Carolina, who was decimated by injuries and suspensions (they had 8 active players). UNC-Asheville was the 3 seed out of the Big South, and they took out 6th seed Charleston Southern and 7th seed High Point before taking down Coastal Carolina. Despite being a 19 win team, look for them to potentially be in the play-in game. They could win that, but their chances of winning a Tourney game are minimal.
Atlantic-Sun - Belmont
The Bruins are about to become very popular in America. That is because they are a 30 win team that has lost to Tennessee twice, Vanderbilt, and one fluky conference loss to Lipscomb. Other than that, they are unblemished on the season, and won their conference championship by 41 points over North Florida (who was the 6 seed in the conference). Look for Belmont to a be about a 13 seed and a popular upset choice in the first round.
Ohio Valley - Morehead St.
The Eagles are led by Kenneth Faried, one of the best big men in college basketball and one of the best rebounders in recent college basketball history. Though the much anticipated rematch with Murray St. did not happen, it was still an entertaining game in their win over Tennessee Tech. While I am not sure if they have the guard play to spring an upset (Demonte Harper notwithstanding), I don't think any team is going to be eager to take on Kenneth Faried in the first round of the Tournament. It is fitting for the OVC Player of the Year to end his career playing in the Tourney.
Do any of these teams have a chance to win a game in The Big Dance?
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Book Review: Scorecasting
I was fortunate to get a copy of Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won
, and it is a book that I have been enjoying immensely.
The book is like the freakonomics of the sports world... it looks at common assumptions in sports (homefield advantage, does defense win championships?, why coaches don't go for it on 4th down, etc) and why they are correct or incorrect. It gives strong statistical backup for all of their beliefs.
As a sports fan that also loves numbers (I am an accountant by trade), it has been a fascinating read. I have learned a lot about these commonly held beliefs, and certainly it will provide at least subtle changes to how I view sports and how I think about them.
If you like sports and like numbers, then I am confident in saying that you will enjoy this book.
, and it is a book that I have been enjoying immensely.The book is like the freakonomics of the sports world... it looks at common assumptions in sports (homefield advantage, does defense win championships?, why coaches don't go for it on 4th down, etc) and why they are correct or incorrect. It gives strong statistical backup for all of their beliefs.
As a sports fan that also loves numbers (I am an accountant by trade), it has been a fascinating read. I have learned a lot about these commonly held beliefs, and certainly it will provide at least subtle changes to how I view sports and how I think about them.
If you like sports and like numbers, then I am confident in saying that you will enjoy this book.
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Super Bowl Predictions
On paper, you couldn't really ask for a better Super Bowl.
We have star power, storied franchises, and rabid fan bases. Both teams are very good, and they are very complete teams.
The Packers are led by Aaron Rodgers, who is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL. He has a strong, accurate arm, and is sneakily one of the most athletic QBs in the League. They have a strong defense led by Clay Matthews, one of the best pass rushers out there. He is quick, fast, and has an attitude about him, leading their defense.
The Steelers are led by Ben Roethlisberger, one of the best playoff QBs you will find. He doesn't put up gaudy numbers, but he has a knack for making big plays when they are needed the most. He is a Super Bowl veteran and will be looking to add another to his trophy case. He is helped defensive by a strong LB corps, with James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, two hard-hitters and athletic defenenders.
In the end, I think Roethlisberger will make one more play than Rodgers. I like Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to be Super Bowl champions once again.
Steelers 27, Packers 24
We have star power, storied franchises, and rabid fan bases. Both teams are very good, and they are very complete teams.
The Packers are led by Aaron Rodgers, who is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL. He has a strong, accurate arm, and is sneakily one of the most athletic QBs in the League. They have a strong defense led by Clay Matthews, one of the best pass rushers out there. He is quick, fast, and has an attitude about him, leading their defense.
The Steelers are led by Ben Roethlisberger, one of the best playoff QBs you will find. He doesn't put up gaudy numbers, but he has a knack for making big plays when they are needed the most. He is a Super Bowl veteran and will be looking to add another to his trophy case. He is helped defensive by a strong LB corps, with James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, two hard-hitters and athletic defenenders.
In the end, I think Roethlisberger will make one more play than Rodgers. I like Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to be Super Bowl champions once again.
Steelers 27, Packers 24
Friday, January 28, 2011
Who should be the college basketball player of the year?
As we make our way into February, the POY race in college basketball seems to be down to three players: Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, and JJ Sullinger.
Sullinger is probably in third right now, but that says more about the other two guys than it does about him. He is averaging about 18 and 10, and is the biggest reason why Ohio St is undefeated and ranked #1 even after losing Evan Turner, last year's POY. He is a force down low, and is the most skilled big man in college basketball. He is the best player on perhaps the best team in America.
Kemba Walker was the leader out of the gate, and he has done it all for Connecticut, who has been one of the big surprises of the country so far. He is averaging around 25 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals per game, which are ridiculous numbers on the college level. He has been one of the most clutch players in America, and has guided a young UConn team into the top 5.
Jimmer Fredette, though, is likely the leader in the clubhouse after his 43 point performance against 4th ranked San Diego St. He averages over 27 PPG, and has scored over 40 multiple times this year, even though he gets all of the attention from opposing defenses. He has BYU in the top 10 and looking like a potential Final Four team.
Who do you think the winner should be?
Sullinger is probably in third right now, but that says more about the other two guys than it does about him. He is averaging about 18 and 10, and is the biggest reason why Ohio St is undefeated and ranked #1 even after losing Evan Turner, last year's POY. He is a force down low, and is the most skilled big man in college basketball. He is the best player on perhaps the best team in America.
Kemba Walker was the leader out of the gate, and he has done it all for Connecticut, who has been one of the big surprises of the country so far. He is averaging around 25 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals per game, which are ridiculous numbers on the college level. He has been one of the most clutch players in America, and has guided a young UConn team into the top 5.
Jimmer Fredette, though, is likely the leader in the clubhouse after his 43 point performance against 4th ranked San Diego St. He averages over 27 PPG, and has scored over 40 multiple times this year, even though he gets all of the attention from opposing defenses. He has BYU in the top 10 and looking like a potential Final Four team.
Who do you think the winner should be?
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Kenneth Faried the best big man in college basketball?
This was originally posted over at Veteran Leadership.
If I had to choose one big man for my college basketball team this season, I would take Kenneth Faried of Morehead St. He is not the most well-known player (how many people even know where Morehead St. is?), and he's not the guy with the most pro potential, but he just so happens to be the best big man in college basketball.
Physically, he is like a man among boys in the post. This is obviously especially true against mid and low-majors, but he has also been excellent against some of the top teams in college basketball. He is very strong, and very quick for a man of his size. He just looks bigger.
He is the best rebounder in college basketball (he is tied for the rebounding lead right now with over 14 per game, he was second in the NCAA last year with 13 per game, and third 2 years ago with 13). He is very, very good at using his body to seal the defender to get into position, and he certainly has a nose for the ball. Also, it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, but he is great at tipping the ball to keep it alive for his team. He certainly projects, in my mind, to be an elite rebounder at the pro level.
As of today he is 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and 2nd in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.
He is also very good defensively, using that quickness and athleticism to erase shots at the rim. He is the reigning OVC Defensive Player of the Year (and Player of the Year, for that matter) and he looks poised to defend his crown. The Eagles often use him as the base man in a 2-3 zone, and he really takes away a lot of opportunities for driving to the hoop and finishing at the rim. I have noticed that sometimes he relies a little too much on his athleticism, and does not get into proper position because he thinks he can recover, but overall, there is very little to complain about defensively. So far this year he is averaging over 2 blocks and 2 steals per game. That is Hakeem Olajuwon-esque.
On the offensive side of the ball, he certainly does not project to be a dominant low-post scorer in the NBA, but he is not without skill. He is surprisingly adept with his left and right hand, and is a solid ballhandler for a true post man. He is also a solid passer, and finds the open guys on the perimeter. Putbacks are a big part of the game, as it is perfect for his elite rebounding skills, and his ability to finish with power at the rim. Free throw shooting is a definite chink in his armor, but on the college level he can simply overpower a lot of guys.
Kenneth Faried is not a perfect player, and he will not be the top pick in the NBA Draft come next June... but for my money, I'd take him as the best big man in college basketball right now. He is one of the top rebounders and defenders down low in the land, and he's more than capable of putting 20 points per night on the board. You can't ask for too much more than that from your big man. He averaged 17 PPG last year on 56% shooting, and both of those numbers have improved this year.
What are your thoughts? Would you rather have another big man instead of Faried?
If I had to choose one big man for my college basketball team this season, I would take Kenneth Faried of Morehead St. He is not the most well-known player (how many people even know where Morehead St. is?), and he's not the guy with the most pro potential, but he just so happens to be the best big man in college basketball.
Physically, he is like a man among boys in the post. This is obviously especially true against mid and low-majors, but he has also been excellent against some of the top teams in college basketball. He is very strong, and very quick for a man of his size. He just looks bigger.
He is the best rebounder in college basketball (he is tied for the rebounding lead right now with over 14 per game, he was second in the NCAA last year with 13 per game, and third 2 years ago with 13). He is very, very good at using his body to seal the defender to get into position, and he certainly has a nose for the ball. Also, it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, but he is great at tipping the ball to keep it alive for his team. He certainly projects, in my mind, to be an elite rebounder at the pro level.
As of today he is 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and 2nd in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.
He is also very good defensively, using that quickness and athleticism to erase shots at the rim. He is the reigning OVC Defensive Player of the Year (and Player of the Year, for that matter) and he looks poised to defend his crown. The Eagles often use him as the base man in a 2-3 zone, and he really takes away a lot of opportunities for driving to the hoop and finishing at the rim. I have noticed that sometimes he relies a little too much on his athleticism, and does not get into proper position because he thinks he can recover, but overall, there is very little to complain about defensively. So far this year he is averaging over 2 blocks and 2 steals per game. That is Hakeem Olajuwon-esque.
On the offensive side of the ball, he certainly does not project to be a dominant low-post scorer in the NBA, but he is not without skill. He is surprisingly adept with his left and right hand, and is a solid ballhandler for a true post man. He is also a solid passer, and finds the open guys on the perimeter. Putbacks are a big part of the game, as it is perfect for his elite rebounding skills, and his ability to finish with power at the rim. Free throw shooting is a definite chink in his armor, but on the college level he can simply overpower a lot of guys.
Kenneth Faried is not a perfect player, and he will not be the top pick in the NBA Draft come next June... but for my money, I'd take him as the best big man in college basketball right now. He is one of the top rebounders and defenders down low in the land, and he's more than capable of putting 20 points per night on the board. You can't ask for too much more than that from your big man. He averaged 17 PPG last year on 56% shooting, and both of those numbers have improved this year.
What are your thoughts? Would you rather have another big man instead of Faried?
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
NBA 2010-2011 Predictions
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Miami Heat, 64 wins
Yes, they will be hurt by big men, but how many teams actually have the talent to exploit that? Maybe a couple. They'll run around everyone during the regular season. Nobody will be able to come close to matching their wings. LeBron will be supremely motivated after an offseason in which everyone suddenly decided he was no longer the best player in the NBA. He might still have something to say about that.
2. Orlando Magic, 57 wins
The best chance that the East has to knock off Miami. If Dwight Howard asserts himself and takes his offensive game to the next level, nobody has the talent to stop him.
3. Chicago Bulls, 52 wins
Rose and Boozer seems like a perfect fit together, and Noah does all of the little things very well. I think Rose takes a leap to be one of the top 10 players in the NBA and the Bulls move up to a 3 seed.
4. Boston Celtics, 51 wins
Basically, we know what we have with them. They're a solid team that will be a tough out in the postseason. However, a year older for all of the big 3 players means 4th place.
5. Atlanta Hawks, 48 wins
They won 53 games when most things went right for them... hard to see them going anywhere except a little bit backwards after the only real change was to the head coach.
6. Milwaukee Bucks, 46 wins
I thought they played a little above their heads last year at times, but they are a very solid team that could have won a playoff series if Andrew Bogut had been healthy. Things depend on if Brandon Jennings is ready to take another step.
7. New York Knicks, 40 wins
Finally, some excitement in MSG! Amare has plenty of limitations, but he should put up big number under the bright lights and under Mike D'Antoni. Raymond Felton was a nice pickup.
8. Philadelphia 76ers, 38 wins
They do have a bunch of young talent (Young, Speights, Iguodala, Williams, Turner, Holiday), it's just completely mismatched and there is no logic to the roster assembly. Still, Doug Collins can mold an 8 seed out of this group.
9. Indiana Pacers, 37 wins
The pickup of Darren Collison solved some PG woes (he was very good in relief last season), but opened up a hole down low. Granger is a stud but there is still not enough help to make the postseason.
10. Charlotte Bobcats, 35 wins
I think last season was the peak for this group.
11. Detroit Pistons, 35 wins
Another team that has talented players but no logic to the roster assembly. They will be able to put points on the board, but I'm not sure if they can stop anyone.
12. Cleveland Cavaliers, 31 wins
Not a lot positive to say, the Cavs will stink and it will obviously be a terrible season without LeBron. They have the talent to avoid last place in the conference, and they should be highly motivated to prove they aren't a bunch of nobodies, but they don't have too much of a chance here.
13. Washington Wizards, 30 wins
John Wall is here, and that means there is hope for the future of the franchise. However, the present still doesn't look that promising.
14. New Jersey Nets, 27 wins
The good news is that not many teams will be able to double their win total. The bad news is that they are still a big-name aquisition away from being a threat to make the playoffs. Still, a core with Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors, and Devin Harris is exciting.
15. Toronto Raptors, 24 wins
Yuck.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Los Angeles Lakers, 57 wins
Still easily the best in the West, as long as Kobe is healthy. I believe they are the only team that has the horses to challenge the Heat in the postseason.
2. San Antonio Spurs, 53 wins
Parker should be healthier, Ginobili should be healthy (stop me if you have heard that before), and Duncan is still there. The addition of Tiago Splitter should help in the wide open race for the 2 seed.
3. Portland Trailblazers, 52 wins
Greg Oden being healthy would be a big boost, as he is sneakily one of the best rebounders in the NBA. However, that doesn't seem likely to happen for a full season.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder, 51 wins
Everything went right health wise for the Thunder last season. I predict things won't go quite as well this year. However, their core should keep improving as Kevin Durant wins the MVP award.
5. Dallas Mavericks, 51 wins
It seems like they never go away... another 50 win season awaits.
6. Houston Rockets, 49 wins
One of my favorite teams. Will everyone be happy with their minutes? They have a lot of good players, and it will be tough to keep to a rotation. Having Yao back will be a big boost.
7. Utah Jazz, 49 wins
If Al Jefferson is healthy, the Jazz shouldn't miss a beat. However, I'm assuming there will be a little transition.
8. Phoenix Suns, 46 wins
The feel good story of last season, they won't be quite as good, but Nash can still navigate them to the playoffs, maybe for the last time.
9. Denver Nuggets, 44 wins
No depth up front, drama around Carmelo, not a lot of defense... smells like just missing the postseason for the Nugs.
10. New Orleans Hornets, 41 wins
If Chris Paul is healthy, he could easily lead them to the postseason even with a mediocre roster. Remember, the guy had one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a PG... New Orleans will be doing everything possible to convince Paul to want to stay in the Big Easy.
11. Los Angeles Clippers, 38 wins
On paper, they should challenge for a playoff spot, especially with Blake Griffin. However, we know that these games aren't played on paper, but by the little men in our TV sets, which usually means things don't go well for the Clips.
12. Memphis Grizzlies, 36 wins
They have a solid pieces, but no depth. Still, they should be able to semi-maintain the feel good play of last season. Still not enough to get back to the postseason, but it will be fun to watch Grizz games.
13. Sacramento Kings, 31 wins
Tyreke Evans was very good as a rookie last season, and he will have DeMarcus Cousins down low with him. They are starting to build some young talent, but they are still a year at least away from competing.
14. Golden State Warriors, 31 wins
They will at least be fun to watch with Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, and David Lee. Unfortunately, with their defense, they will also be fun to play against.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves, 20 wins
They have some nice young pieces (Kevin Love could win a rebounding title sooner rather than later), but there is not enough to avoid the cellar.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Heat over 76ers in 4
Magic over Knicks in 6
Bucks over Bulls in 7
Celtics over Hawks in 6
Heat over Celtics in 6
Magic over Bucks in 5
Heat over Magic in 6
Lakers over Suns in 5
Spurs over Jazz in 7
Rockets over Blazers in 7
Thunder over Mavs in 5
Lakers over Thunder in 7
Spurs over Rockets in 6
Lakers over Spurs in 5
Heat over Lakers in 7
1. Miami Heat, 64 wins
Yes, they will be hurt by big men, but how many teams actually have the talent to exploit that? Maybe a couple. They'll run around everyone during the regular season. Nobody will be able to come close to matching their wings. LeBron will be supremely motivated after an offseason in which everyone suddenly decided he was no longer the best player in the NBA. He might still have something to say about that.
2. Orlando Magic, 57 wins
The best chance that the East has to knock off Miami. If Dwight Howard asserts himself and takes his offensive game to the next level, nobody has the talent to stop him.
3. Chicago Bulls, 52 wins
Rose and Boozer seems like a perfect fit together, and Noah does all of the little things very well. I think Rose takes a leap to be one of the top 10 players in the NBA and the Bulls move up to a 3 seed.
4. Boston Celtics, 51 wins
Basically, we know what we have with them. They're a solid team that will be a tough out in the postseason. However, a year older for all of the big 3 players means 4th place.
5. Atlanta Hawks, 48 wins
They won 53 games when most things went right for them... hard to see them going anywhere except a little bit backwards after the only real change was to the head coach.
6. Milwaukee Bucks, 46 wins
I thought they played a little above their heads last year at times, but they are a very solid team that could have won a playoff series if Andrew Bogut had been healthy. Things depend on if Brandon Jennings is ready to take another step.
7. New York Knicks, 40 wins
Finally, some excitement in MSG! Amare has plenty of limitations, but he should put up big number under the bright lights and under Mike D'Antoni. Raymond Felton was a nice pickup.
8. Philadelphia 76ers, 38 wins
They do have a bunch of young talent (Young, Speights, Iguodala, Williams, Turner, Holiday), it's just completely mismatched and there is no logic to the roster assembly. Still, Doug Collins can mold an 8 seed out of this group.
9. Indiana Pacers, 37 wins
The pickup of Darren Collison solved some PG woes (he was very good in relief last season), but opened up a hole down low. Granger is a stud but there is still not enough help to make the postseason.
10. Charlotte Bobcats, 35 wins
I think last season was the peak for this group.
11. Detroit Pistons, 35 wins
Another team that has talented players but no logic to the roster assembly. They will be able to put points on the board, but I'm not sure if they can stop anyone.
12. Cleveland Cavaliers, 31 wins
Not a lot positive to say, the Cavs will stink and it will obviously be a terrible season without LeBron. They have the talent to avoid last place in the conference, and they should be highly motivated to prove they aren't a bunch of nobodies, but they don't have too much of a chance here.
13. Washington Wizards, 30 wins
John Wall is here, and that means there is hope for the future of the franchise. However, the present still doesn't look that promising.
14. New Jersey Nets, 27 wins
The good news is that not many teams will be able to double their win total. The bad news is that they are still a big-name aquisition away from being a threat to make the playoffs. Still, a core with Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors, and Devin Harris is exciting.
15. Toronto Raptors, 24 wins
Yuck.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Los Angeles Lakers, 57 wins
Still easily the best in the West, as long as Kobe is healthy. I believe they are the only team that has the horses to challenge the Heat in the postseason.
2. San Antonio Spurs, 53 wins
Parker should be healthier, Ginobili should be healthy (stop me if you have heard that before), and Duncan is still there. The addition of Tiago Splitter should help in the wide open race for the 2 seed.
3. Portland Trailblazers, 52 wins
Greg Oden being healthy would be a big boost, as he is sneakily one of the best rebounders in the NBA. However, that doesn't seem likely to happen for a full season.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder, 51 wins
Everything went right health wise for the Thunder last season. I predict things won't go quite as well this year. However, their core should keep improving as Kevin Durant wins the MVP award.
5. Dallas Mavericks, 51 wins
It seems like they never go away... another 50 win season awaits.
6. Houston Rockets, 49 wins
One of my favorite teams. Will everyone be happy with their minutes? They have a lot of good players, and it will be tough to keep to a rotation. Having Yao back will be a big boost.
7. Utah Jazz, 49 wins
If Al Jefferson is healthy, the Jazz shouldn't miss a beat. However, I'm assuming there will be a little transition.
8. Phoenix Suns, 46 wins
The feel good story of last season, they won't be quite as good, but Nash can still navigate them to the playoffs, maybe for the last time.
9. Denver Nuggets, 44 wins
No depth up front, drama around Carmelo, not a lot of defense... smells like just missing the postseason for the Nugs.
10. New Orleans Hornets, 41 wins
If Chris Paul is healthy, he could easily lead them to the postseason even with a mediocre roster. Remember, the guy had one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a PG... New Orleans will be doing everything possible to convince Paul to want to stay in the Big Easy.
11. Los Angeles Clippers, 38 wins
On paper, they should challenge for a playoff spot, especially with Blake Griffin. However, we know that these games aren't played on paper, but by the little men in our TV sets, which usually means things don't go well for the Clips.
12. Memphis Grizzlies, 36 wins
They have a solid pieces, but no depth. Still, they should be able to semi-maintain the feel good play of last season. Still not enough to get back to the postseason, but it will be fun to watch Grizz games.
13. Sacramento Kings, 31 wins
Tyreke Evans was very good as a rookie last season, and he will have DeMarcus Cousins down low with him. They are starting to build some young talent, but they are still a year at least away from competing.
14. Golden State Warriors, 31 wins
They will at least be fun to watch with Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, and David Lee. Unfortunately, with their defense, they will also be fun to play against.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves, 20 wins
They have some nice young pieces (Kevin Love could win a rebounding title sooner rather than later), but there is not enough to avoid the cellar.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Heat over 76ers in 4
Magic over Knicks in 6
Bucks over Bulls in 7
Celtics over Hawks in 6
Heat over Celtics in 6
Magic over Bucks in 5
Heat over Magic in 6
Lakers over Suns in 5
Spurs over Jazz in 7
Rockets over Blazers in 7
Thunder over Mavs in 5
Lakers over Thunder in 7
Spurs over Rockets in 6
Lakers over Spurs in 5
Heat over Lakers in 7
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7
Pittsburgh (-3) over Miami
I think Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back, making their offense balanced again. Miami has some nice wins this season, but I'm not sure Chad Henne is going to be very effective against this defense. I like Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game in Miami, with Roethlisberger making the difference.
Cincinnati (+3.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta looked like it might have a chance to be the class of the NFC, and then they got beat easily by Philly. Cincy started off well before tailing off, but they know they need a win to try and salvage their season. Look for a good gameplan from Mike Zimmer, and just enough plays out of the Cincy offense to pull off an upset.
St. Louis (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
After last week's win over the Chargers, I believe in the Rams in the NFC West. The defensive front is getting after people just like Spagnulo's Giants' teams used to do. The offense, thanks to Sam Bradford, is showing more signs of life than they have in years. Something is brewing in St. Louis, and I think it will be enough to beat the Bucs.
San Francisco (-3) over Carolina
2-5 an the Niners will start to believe. The musical chairs of Carolina quarterback goes back to Matt Moore. Won't make a difference for this punchless offense, as teams will just load the box. Carolina's receivers aren't good enough to beat anyone.
Washington (+3) over Chicago
The Bears correction continues, as the Redskins are showing signs of being solid. Donovan McNabb is playing better than Jay Cutler right now, which is why I will take the Skins. The Bears need to get Matt Forte the ball in the running game, because teams will be going after Cutler with the way the offensive line has performed this season.
New Orleans (-13.5) over Cleveland
The Saints appear to have some of their mojo back, particularly if they can continue a strong rushing attack. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good in his first game starting in his career, but there is not enough firepower in Cleveland to compete with the Saints.
Buffalo (+13) over Baltimore
Baltimore should win the game easily, but I think the Bills will be able to make the final score respectable. Fred Jackson should get more touches after the trade of Marshawn Lynch, and that could be a good thing. It will also be interesting to see if they have anything new for CJ Spiller. Ryan Fitzgerald is not anyone's answer to a long-term solution at QB, but he is serviceable, which is more than you could say about Trent Edwards.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over Tennessee
I believe in Kevin Kolb. He looked great against Atlanta, and he appears to have the timing of the offense down. The only thing that concerns me is that Desean Jackson will be out of the game, which is a big blow to the offense. Still, I have more faith in Philly's run game than Tennessee's pass game, which is why I will take the Eagles here.
Seattle (-5.5) over Arizona
Nice win by Seattle last week, showing that they could win a road game, which was in question for me before that game. At home, I think they will overwhelm Arizona, who is better with Max Hall than they were with Derek Anderson (or Matt Leinart), but not good enough to be a serious contender.
Denver (-7) over Oakland
The Broncos have played well, just are struggling to get over the hump. The Raiders, meanwhile, looked awful last week, and Kyle Boller could be getting the start this week. I think Denver's offense is a lot more explosive than the Raiders, even with the lack of a running game.
New England (+3) over San Diego
New England looks like the Patriots of old... a bunch of scrappy guys just going out there and playing. I can't put my finger on what is different after essentially trading Randy Moss for Deion Branch, but SOMETHING is. And it's clear that as great as Moss is, things were not working out this season. The Patriots look like a force the rest of the way to me.
Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay
The game that is full of storylines. Favre comes back to Lambeau again, and this time the Packers are reeling. The Packers know that if they lose this game, the Vikings have all of the momentum in the division. Still, I like the Vikings D (which has quietly been excellent) to get after Aaron Rodgers like they did last year, and for Favre to hit Moss on a deep ball that will make the difference.
Dallas (-3) over New York
The NFC East seems to always have these types of games... one team is struggling, the other team is playing well... but talent-wise, they are close to even, and there is one team that really needs the game more than the other team. Dallas will be in desperation mode. At home in Big D, I'll take Dallas to prolong the death of their season for another week.
I think Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back, making their offense balanced again. Miami has some nice wins this season, but I'm not sure Chad Henne is going to be very effective against this defense. I like Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game in Miami, with Roethlisberger making the difference.
Cincinnati (+3.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta looked like it might have a chance to be the class of the NFC, and then they got beat easily by Philly. Cincy started off well before tailing off, but they know they need a win to try and salvage their season. Look for a good gameplan from Mike Zimmer, and just enough plays out of the Cincy offense to pull off an upset.
St. Louis (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
After last week's win over the Chargers, I believe in the Rams in the NFC West. The defensive front is getting after people just like Spagnulo's Giants' teams used to do. The offense, thanks to Sam Bradford, is showing more signs of life than they have in years. Something is brewing in St. Louis, and I think it will be enough to beat the Bucs.
San Francisco (-3) over Carolina
2-5 an the Niners will start to believe. The musical chairs of Carolina quarterback goes back to Matt Moore. Won't make a difference for this punchless offense, as teams will just load the box. Carolina's receivers aren't good enough to beat anyone.
Washington (+3) over Chicago
The Bears correction continues, as the Redskins are showing signs of being solid. Donovan McNabb is playing better than Jay Cutler right now, which is why I will take the Skins. The Bears need to get Matt Forte the ball in the running game, because teams will be going after Cutler with the way the offensive line has performed this season.
New Orleans (-13.5) over Cleveland
The Saints appear to have some of their mojo back, particularly if they can continue a strong rushing attack. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good in his first game starting in his career, but there is not enough firepower in Cleveland to compete with the Saints.
Buffalo (+13) over Baltimore
Baltimore should win the game easily, but I think the Bills will be able to make the final score respectable. Fred Jackson should get more touches after the trade of Marshawn Lynch, and that could be a good thing. It will also be interesting to see if they have anything new for CJ Spiller. Ryan Fitzgerald is not anyone's answer to a long-term solution at QB, but he is serviceable, which is more than you could say about Trent Edwards.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over Tennessee
I believe in Kevin Kolb. He looked great against Atlanta, and he appears to have the timing of the offense down. The only thing that concerns me is that Desean Jackson will be out of the game, which is a big blow to the offense. Still, I have more faith in Philly's run game than Tennessee's pass game, which is why I will take the Eagles here.
Seattle (-5.5) over Arizona
Nice win by Seattle last week, showing that they could win a road game, which was in question for me before that game. At home, I think they will overwhelm Arizona, who is better with Max Hall than they were with Derek Anderson (or Matt Leinart), but not good enough to be a serious contender.
Denver (-7) over Oakland
The Broncos have played well, just are struggling to get over the hump. The Raiders, meanwhile, looked awful last week, and Kyle Boller could be getting the start this week. I think Denver's offense is a lot more explosive than the Raiders, even with the lack of a running game.
New England (+3) over San Diego
New England looks like the Patriots of old... a bunch of scrappy guys just going out there and playing. I can't put my finger on what is different after essentially trading Randy Moss for Deion Branch, but SOMETHING is. And it's clear that as great as Moss is, things were not working out this season. The Patriots look like a force the rest of the way to me.
Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay
The game that is full of storylines. Favre comes back to Lambeau again, and this time the Packers are reeling. The Packers know that if they lose this game, the Vikings have all of the momentum in the division. Still, I like the Vikings D (which has quietly been excellent) to get after Aaron Rodgers like they did last year, and for Favre to hit Moss on a deep ball that will make the difference.
Dallas (-3) over New York
The NFC East seems to always have these types of games... one team is struggling, the other team is playing well... but talent-wise, they are close to even, and there is one team that really needs the game more than the other team. Dallas will be in desperation mode. At home in Big D, I'll take Dallas to prolong the death of their season for another week.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
NFL Power Rankings
Each NFL season seems to bring a lot of turnover among the best teams in the NFL, as free agency and the draft can cause a lot of attrition in the League. However, it's always fun to try and predict which teams will be at the top of the heap once the season ends.
At the top of any power rankings should be the New Orleans Saints, simply because they are the defending Super Bowl champions. They did not experience a whole lot of roster turnover, and so there will be a lot of the same faces. The offense should again be very explosive, as they will be quarterbacked by Drew Brees, the MVP of the League. Sean Payton is also in place, as he makes all of the pieces of the puzzle fit together. If Gregg Williams can captain the defense to be as opportunistic as they were last season, the Saints will be strong contenders for the Super Bowl once again.
The Indianapolis Colts will be one of the best teams in the NFL as long as they still have Peyton Manning. He is one of the best QBs in the history of the game, and always seems to be make everyone around him perform at a higher level. They had two rookie WRs last year and an inconsistent running game, and still they were among the best teams in the NFL and almost won the Super Bowl. With the continuity that he provides for the offense, the Colts will be a great team once again.
Now that Brett Favre has returned from retirement, the Minnesota Vikings should again be among the top teams in the NFL. They have a lot of playmakers on offense, which will make them very difficult to gameplan against. If the Offensive Line can adequately protect Favre, they will put up a ton of points. The defense is getting older, but they are still among the best units in the League. They will be very hungry to get over the hump after just falling short last season.
It is shaping up to be a great NFL season, as there are a lot of great teams. The Saints, Colts, and Vikings were three of the best last season, and they look like three of the best heading into this season. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the best teams this year.
At the top of any power rankings should be the New Orleans Saints, simply because they are the defending Super Bowl champions. They did not experience a whole lot of roster turnover, and so there will be a lot of the same faces. The offense should again be very explosive, as they will be quarterbacked by Drew Brees, the MVP of the League. Sean Payton is also in place, as he makes all of the pieces of the puzzle fit together. If Gregg Williams can captain the defense to be as opportunistic as they were last season, the Saints will be strong contenders for the Super Bowl once again.
The Indianapolis Colts will be one of the best teams in the NFL as long as they still have Peyton Manning. He is one of the best QBs in the history of the game, and always seems to be make everyone around him perform at a higher level. They had two rookie WRs last year and an inconsistent running game, and still they were among the best teams in the NFL and almost won the Super Bowl. With the continuity that he provides for the offense, the Colts will be a great team once again.
Now that Brett Favre has returned from retirement, the Minnesota Vikings should again be among the top teams in the NFL. They have a lot of playmakers on offense, which will make them very difficult to gameplan against. If the Offensive Line can adequately protect Favre, they will put up a ton of points. The defense is getting older, but they are still among the best units in the League. They will be very hungry to get over the hump after just falling short last season.
It is shaping up to be a great NFL season, as there are a lot of great teams. The Saints, Colts, and Vikings were three of the best last season, and they look like three of the best heading into this season. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the best teams this year.
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