Coming into the year, Greg Oden was the consensus #1 prospect, but now that Kevin Durant has asserted himself as the frontrunner for the NCAA Player of the Year, things have changed in the eyes of some people. Both are extraordinary players in very different ways, and both will contribute immediately.
Some analyst said not too long ago, and I don't remember who exactly, but he basically asked would you rather have David Robinson or Dirk Nowitski? That's probably who Oden and Durant compare to the best, and if they turn out anything like them, well, you can see what all the hype is about.
First is Greg Oden, the most highly touted Center prospect in a long, long time. Despite limited use of his right hand, Oden has averaged over 15 PPG so far this year while shooting 62% from the field. He has developed a solid offensive game in the post with his left hand, even shooting free throws right handed. Still, he does have a way to go on the offensive end, as he is not really polished at all yet with his back to the basket. However, the fact that he is so athletic and agile suggests that that will come with time and experience.But offense is not where Oden will make his living... right now, as a freshman, Oden is the best defensive big man in college basketball. That's not a slight to guys like Joakim Noah, who are very good, but Oden is just in another world. He's always in the right position, he has an NBA-type body already, and he has unbelievable instincts. He averages 3.7 BPG, and that's even with teams knowing what kind of force he is down there. Another good thing is that he's smart down there and not over-aggressive... even with all of the blocks, he's not putting guys on the line and getting himself into foul trouble, as he averages 2.4 fouls per game and has not fouled out in a game this year. Athleticism, positioning, smarts, and timing make Oden the best defensive college big man in the country.
Next is Kevin Durant, who has taken the college basketball world by storm. His numbers alone are almost mind-boggling. He's averaging over 25 points and 11 rebounds per game as a freshman in the Big 12. What's more, he is averaging about 33 points and 14 rebounds per game in conference play. That is simply incredible.Many are saying Kevin Durant will 'redefine' our notion of a forward offensively, though admittedly I can't really see that. What does Durant do that Nowitski or McGrady doesn't? That's not a slight to Durant at all, but I wouldn't say he's redefining anything. But that doesn't really matter all that much... what does matter is that his offensive skill set might be better than any other college player's has been for quite a while. He's a very solid 3-point shooter, he can get by his man and get to the hoop, or he can post up smaller defenders. He is the entire package offensively.
Defensively, he's not there yet but the potential is there. He has long arms that can wreak havoc on an offense... as evidenced by 1.9 BPG and 1.5 SPG. He's an average defender right now, but with his tools and some good coaching, he has the ability to develop in a very good one.
So who would I choose? Certainly you can't go wrong with Oden or Durant. However, if I had the #1 pick in the NBA Draft and these 2 guys were on the board, my selection at this point would still be Greg Oden. Defensively, he can step in and immediately challenge for the All-Defensive team, and that's no exaggeration. He is that smart, that strong, and that athletic. Offensively, he's a work in progress to some degree, but the potential to be a great scorer in the post is there, which we will certainly learn more about at his right wrist gets healthier. So for these reasons, I would give Oden the slightest of nods over Durant, though the way Kevin Durant is playing, that could change.
If you had the #1 pick in the NBA Draft and these 2 players were on the board, who would you choose?
23 comments:
Oden, just because of the old cliche that you can't teach 7 feet, plus, like you said, he plays good D.
If McGrady and Nowitzki had played U.S. college ball, they'd have done quite similar stuff, and that's not to take anything away from Durant and his freaky skills -- he's just head and shoulders above his opponents.
Also Oden. Durant is a stud along the lines of KG and TMac- but how many championships have either of them led a team to?
I think it really depends who is drafting. If the team has a void at the 5 position I take Oden. If they have someone stable there, I take Durant. It really depends on the team, they are both so good!
I agree with Mini Me. If I ran the Boston Celtics, and I already have scorers and young (though underachieving) forwards, I'd take Oden. But maybe the Sixers, who need a superstar, rather than a role player, should opt for Durant.
Overall, however, I'd say the #1 guy is Oden as he offers something not many other players do right now. He can play right away as a defensive presence. And his offensive skills will only get better.
Bob Knight: "Take Jordan."
NBA Exec: "But we really need a center."
Bob Knight: "Play Jordan at center."
I'm all about still taking Oden....dudes playing with one hand right now
Oden.
All-star calliber forwards come out ever year. There just aren't as many great centers. The drop off from a dominant center to an average center is much steeper than the drop off from a dominant forward to an average forward.
I agree with most of what you wrote, but Durant really can redefine how offense is played. He can dominate from the post or the perimeter, and there are plenty of players in the NBA who can do that, sure, but his height separates him there. No one who is 6'9" is as explosive as he is on the perimeter and no one with is perimeter skills can do what he does in the post.
He is infinitely more explosive than Dirk (seriously, how long does it take Dirk to get from the three point line to the rim? Seven dribbles?). And his height and plethora of post moves makes him a much tougher match up in the post than McGrady. There may be players who do one thing better than Durant, but no one is matching his all-around skill set. And he is still rail-thin ang growing; can you imagine him filling out?
As for the "you win with centers" thing...well, you win with the best players, I think. The centers who won were just better than the smaller guys they defeated. Plus, you can win a milion ways in today's NBA - how different are the Pistons, the Suns, the Suprs, the Mavs? Would you be surprised if any of those teams won the title? I woudln't be.
Durant is the better player, and he hasn't even come close to reaching his "NBA potential" where all they do is exploit match-ups. He is the ultimate match up nightmare. I'd take Durant. But whoever drafts Oden is gonna be pretty happy, too.
I know they say you can't teach 7 foot, but Durant actually has a longer wing span than Yao Ming, his arms are ubeleivably long.
http://texassports.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=16&url_article_id=5595&change_well_id=2
check out the picture lower right Durant against Wilt chamberlain
Thanks for the comments guys.
Great stuff Point 23... I do agree with you on the 'win with centers' idea... having a great center is certainly not a prerequisite to winning an NBA title these days, but I think Oden is just so good defensively, good enough to make up for the offensive difference right now.
There's no doubt Durant will be incredible once he fills out more, but Oden can hardly shoot with his dominant hand, and he's still scoring 15 PPG and shooting over 62%. I think people tend to underrate how good he is offensively. He's very agile for a big man, physically dominant, and he hasn't really learned how to play with his back to the basket yet. That's why I'm so high on him... not only will he almost immediately become one of the top centers in the League, within 2 years he should be one of the top 5 centers offensively.
But that said, as has been mentioned, I'd be really, really happy with either guy. Just great players.
a true center with a defensive presence like Oden doesn't come around very often, you gotta go with him if you have the #1 pick.
The idea that a great center is more valuable than a great swingman actually has very little to do with actual play. Like point23 said, it's all about finding the best 5 players once your on the court, and it's not essential to have a great center.
HOWEVA, centers are still infinently more valuable than wing players for one reason. Market scarcity. The difference between a great center and a good center is astronomically bigger than the difference between a great wing player and a good wing player, yet the salary isn't. Consider that mediocre centers like Chris Kaman, Samuel Dalembert, and Tyson Chandler are making close to the maximum, which is almost certainly what Dwight Howard and Oden will cost after a while. You'd be hard-pressed to say that Howard (and potentially Oden) are only a couple million dollars a year more valuable than Chandler, Kaman, or Dalembert.
On the other hand, the difference between Kobe Bryant and Caron Butler/Tayshaun Prince is probably just as big as the difference between Howard/Oden and Dalembert/Kaman/Chandler, but the difference is salary is significantly larger. Kobe makes the max, but Butler and Prince both make around 8 million dollars a year. That's about half of what Kobe makes, yet I'd argue they're not half as good.
Oden's more valuable because a)there are few great centers out there, and b)the difference between a great center and an average one is not very large in terms of salary. That's why, despite Durant tearing it up, I'd take Oden 9 times out of 10.
By "not half as good," I mean they are better than half as good.
To add/clarify my point, which duo would you rather have?
Oden (16M) and Caron Butler (8M)for a combined 24 million.
or
Durant (16M) and Kaman (11M) for a combined 31 million.
Either one can win, but there's a big difference in salary. I'd take the first one.
And yes, we're speaking in hypotheticals, but the point still stands.
Oden... once in a liftime opportunity to take a big guy with this much talent. He wont disappoint.
thats definetly a good point. centers are few and far between and there is a plethora of good shooting guards/power fowards in the league. i think this whole thing hinges on how good oden is with both hands. seriously... imagine trying to play basketball with ur non dominant hand.
that being said i prolly still take durant, at least right now. the kid is sick. his instincts are incredible. i find it laughable(even as a mavs fan) that the article likened durant to nowitzki. hes much more like another kevin... kevin garnett. once durant fills out... his potential is threw the roof.
bill simmons summed it up pretty good i think when he said that oden has the potential to be one of the best 5 centers in the league but durant has the potential to be one of the 5 best players of all time.
on a funny note... wouldnt it be great if this was like the olajuwon/bowie thing and there ends up being a MJ caliber player in this draft. or even the whole lebron/melo with wade coming out of no where.
i think durant's riskier -- you know what you're getting with oden -- but i think durant can change the direction of a franchise while i see Oden as more stability than anything.
i think that was about a 7 out of 10 on the "made sense scale."
When I look at this debate, Durant is one the best players I have ever seen. Oden may be the best pick for conventional wisdom, but conventional wisdom picked Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan. NBA execs should not make the same mistake. I know the Oden is a very good player, but Durant is a once-in-a-lifetime player. He's big enough to play center (assuming he can put on a few pounds of muscle) and he's agile enough to play and defend a point guard. We haven't seen that since Magic Johnson.
It depends whos getting first pick. but i'm sure that my man oden will be #1 pick.
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