NBA Conference Finals Predictions

After two totally awesome rounds, we're down to the final 4. In the Eastern Conference, we have a rematch from last year, as the Detroit Pistons will take on the Miami Heat. In the Western Conference, we have another playoff rematch, although last year it took place in the second round, as the Phoenix Suns will take on the Dallas Mavericks. Let's take a look at each series.

Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
Technically, this is a rematch from last year. However, Miami is a much different team this year, after Pat Riley overhauled the roster in the offseason. Gone are Damon Jones and Eddie Jones, starters last year, and in are Jason Williams and Antoine Walker. The result? A more talented team, but it took them a while to find their groove. But now that they have, they're a legitimately scary team with the talent to win it all. Heck, they probably would have beaten Detroit if Dwyane Wade had been 100% in Game 7.

For Detroit, it's the same old story for them. We know what they have, and we know what they do. It will all depend on what type of intensity they play with, because if they play like they did in Games 3-6 against the Cavs, Miami can and will beat them. I do think Detroit did at least come to their senses somewhat in that 2nd half... they began playing their old style of defense, which is to say that they absolutely shut the opposing team down. I think they'd do well to stick with that strategy.

As far as the series goes, let me just say that Dwyane Wade is the best player in the series, and one of the top 5 players in the NBA. Also, I do like this Miami team more than last year, because I think that when things are going right they have a lot more balance and scoring options. However, Shaq is just not his old self. He can't play as many minutes, and because of the refs or otherwise he has not been as effective in thos minutes. I think with Wade on board they can again extend it to 7 games, but I think it'll be a new year, and the same results. PISTONS IN 7.


Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Very interesting matchup here as well, if only because of the coaches, because Avery Johnson and Mike D'Antoni are absolutely 2 of the top 4 coaches in the NBA. Add on to that that these teams are talented and play fun-to-watch styles, and this should be another entertaining series.

When Phoenix is hitting their 3s (like they were in Game 7) they are unbeatable. Against a super-athletic team with a lot better coach (AKA the Mavs as compared to the Clips), I don't see them doing this as much. As Dallas showed against the Spurs, they can play smallball if need be, which will probably negate any positive Kurt Thomas would be able to bring.

I think this will be very entertaining, but I think the Mavs defense is just too much better than the Suns defense. I think whoever Steve Nash guards, whether it's Devin Harris or Jason Terry, will just put up really big numbers. Dirk, as always, will be excellent as well. MAVERICKS IN 6.

Bye Bye LeBron, Bye Bye Happiness

Ok, I'm still happy. But I will say that I am going to miss watching LeBron in these playoffs. For a 21 year-old in his first stint in the playoffs, he was nothing short of amazing. But we know all of that already.

Today in the 2nd half, it was all about Detroit. Where was that defense all series? Granted, no one, James or otherwise, could hit an outside jumper to save their lives, but even so, the Detroit defense was absolutely suffocating, holidng Cleveland to 23 second-half points in the 79-61 series clicher. According to my research (read: I think I saw this during the broadcast), it was the lowest point total of any team in a Game 7.

LeBron was excellent in first half, but in the 2nd half Detroit collapsed on him and shut down the lane, drawing charges on multiple occasions. On the high pick & roll, they just went ahead and hedged hard, and then doubled LeBron, which was made all the more effective because no one else could do anything offensively (Cavaliers players not named LeBron James shot 9/41 from the field).

The biggest issue for Detroit, at least as far as their series against the Heat is concerned, is how bad Rasheed Wallace was. They need him to be a little more Sheedtastic against a better all-around team than the Cavs, which the Heat are. Shooting 4/16 and scoring 13 points will not get it done for the Heat. I really don't think this will be a problem because Sheed has been pretty consistent since he arrived in Detroit, but I had to come up with something! (Image from Need4Sheed)

Anyway, the Pistons, as expected, move on, although the series was a lot closer than was expected. This is completely overused, but well, I am a witness. And whether they lost to Detroit in Game 7 or not, I'll remember this postseason for LeBron for a very long time. I guess I'll see you next year LeBron. Oh, and work on that jumper a little more.

Previewing the Game 7s

With three game 7’s forthcoming in the NBA Playoffs, I thought now would be a good time to do a little preview of the games, as well as my predictions. By the time you read this, some or all of the games probably will have happened, so feel free to mock me when my picks are eventually wrong. Here we go.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Cleveland had the chance they were looking for to close out Detroit in Game 6 at home, but the Pistons prevailed 84-82, setting up this Game 7 in Motown, which is not real good news for the Cavs. While Cleveland was able to win Game 5 in Detroit, I don’t think they’ll have as good of luck this time around. The Detroit crowd should be a little more raucous this time around, which could fluster the young Cleveland squad.

The prevailing theme in this series is that everyone (myself included) seems to think that Detroit is the more talented team, they’re just not really playing with urgency yet. You would think that Game 7 would be a good time to play with that urgency, but if it hasn’t happened yet this series, maybe it won’t ever come. Or maybe LeBron James is just that good already. Either way, I think we’ll see more of what we saw in Games 3-6 than what we saw in Games 1-2.

That being said, I do like Detroit to take care of business at home in Game 7, although it won’t be easy. DETROIT BY 6.


Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
As far as the quality of the teams and of the games, this has been the best series of the playoffs easily. These may be the two best teams in the NBA (especially with the way Detroit is playing right now) and 5 out of 6 games have been extremely entertaining. It's a shame the series has to end, but it does.

The Mavs will get a boost with Jason Terry returning to the lineup after missing Game 6. Although, even without Terry, the Mavs showed that they are faster and more athletic than the Spurs. So that is the real key to the game - how Parker, Ginobili and the rest stop the penetration of Devin Harris and Jason Terry. Assuming all else goes how it has been (Duncan will get his; Nowitski will get his), the guard play will determine this one.

In the end, I do love how Harris and Terry have played this series, but in a Game 7 in San Antonio, you won't find me betting against Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, and the defending champs. SPURS BY 3.


Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Like the other Western Conference matchup, this has been extremely evenly matched. We've seen a little bit of everything so far - extreme rebounding discrepancies, double OT, and the Clippers, yes those Clippers, headed to a game 7. Like the rest of the games in this series, this should be a high scoring, and it will depend on how Phoenix rebounds and if they can shoot a decent percentage from beyond the arc.

Believe it or not, I think the biggest question mark for the Suns might be Steve Nash. Don't look now, but he's been outplayed by Sam Cassell so far in this series, and in the spurts that Dunleavy has guarded Nash with Shaun Livingston, Livingston has controlled the matchup. Nash needs to make good decisions, especially down the stretch, and he needs to make some outside shots, which he hasn't done so far in this series.

This is a tough one to call, but I think the more inexperienced Clippers can win this game. Nash has been underrated all year, and he has not really impressed this series, with Raja Bell and Shawn Marion being Phoenix' best players so far. The X-Factor is Leandro Barbosa, because he has the capabilities of getting hot and scoring a quick 20. I don't think it will be enough, even in Phoenix. CLIPPERS BY 4.

Sports Blogs I read

First off, my apologies. I wanted to write this post Thursday night, but I started a new job and got off there at midnight, and then I watched a tape of the Suns/Nuggets game, and by that point I was getting a headache was really tired, so I just went to bed.

Now, I thought of this a few days ago, and thought it would be cool to just make a list of the sports blogs that I frequent. I thought this would be a good way to make others aware of them and recognize them for the efforts. If yours is not on the list, chances are I don't know about it, forget it, and it just hasn't been updated ina while. Other bloggers, feel free to copy this "idea" (which I suppose isn't really that original). Here they are, in alphabetical order.

Blog Maverick - I'm not really a devoted reader of the blog, but it's interesting to occassionally look into the mind of billionaire Mark Cuban, because there's really no other blog like this.

Critical Fanatic - Has the daily sports buzz, which is nice. Also has a share of Cubs ramblings, and it's always enjoyable to me to read Cubs fans complaining about their team. :) Also had excellent stuff for the NFL Draft.

Dan's Take - All around sports goodness. Doesn't always focus on the big stories, but has other interesting stuff ("That guy" at your home poker game) which continues to make the blog interesting.

Deadspin - If you count this as a sports blog, probably the best out there. Updated many times throughout the day (and weekend), provides the big stories, obscure stories, and everything in between.

Double-A Zone - The official NCAA Blog. Well written, and covers all levels of the NCAA from Division 1 Division 2, to Division 3. I really enjoy this blog.

Every Day Should Be Saturday - All about college football, and quite frankly, I can't disagree with the premise that every day should be a Saturday (except this Saturday, when I work 4-midnight!)

Free Darko - Generally posts long, well-written messages about the NBA. A fun read if you like the NBA.

Give Me The Rock - Another good NBA blog, with a lot of focus on fantasy basketball.

Kevin Antcliff - A little sports, a little bit of everything else. Always good stuff from Kevin.

My Opinion on Sports - Usually has his eye on Oklahoma stuff and the Dolphins, but does cover lots of stuff nationwide. Posts frequently, so there's usually something new to read.

Need4Sheed - This blog is Sheedtastic. Need I say more?

Pacifist Viking - Mainly focuses on the Vikings but also does some NBA stuff. Well written.

Sportolysis - For more of a worldwide sports perspective.

Sweaty Men Endeavors - Might be my favorite. Very well written, funny, smart, etc. He does write a lot about crappy teams like the Lions and Tigers :), but he also writes about national stuff, and is smart and objective. Very enjoyable blog.

Squeeze Play Sports - A lot of their work is focused on stuff in the LA area, but they do a lot of cool things such as live (or running) blogs of different sports events, and that's always cool.

The Armchair Quarterback - A self-proclaimed ex-kicker, which obviously qualifies him for football work. Solid all-around.

The Big Picture - Another of my favorites. Always very entertaining stuff on here.

The Gatorade Dump - Has done some excellent work on both the NCAA Tournament and a good amount of NBA stuff. Very well-written blog.

The Mighty MJD - This is the guy that writes for Deadspin for the weekends, so you know it's entertaining. Also usually pretty spot on when it comes to analysis and things of that nature.

The Sports Pulse - Don't always write about the big stuff, but it's always entertaining. For instance, the last few posts have been about Charles Barkley, Ryan Leaf, and Coach K playing video poker.

YAYSports NBA - Quite simply the most entertaining NBA blog out there. Great work with Photoshop, great writeups, and really funny all around. They're also trying to make a movie, so donate money for that.

Yoco Hoops - To satisfy some college hoops needs.


I'm assuming I missed a lot, so either leave a message for me in the comments to recommend some more good ones, or better yet, create a list of your own on your blog!

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers/Value Picks

We're about 1/4 of the way through the year, but there are still a lot of players that are undervalued at this point. Here's a few of them at C, IF, OF, SP, and RP.

Catchers

Josh Willingham - Florida Marlins - He's playing LF for Florida, but in most leagues he still qualifies at C, which is a good thing. He's batting .286, and he has 7 HR and 29 RBI. Florida's not that good, but Willingham is solid and batting behind Cabrera. He may be available in mixed leagues.

Johnny Estrada - Arizona Diamondbacks - Estrada's just a really solid hitter. The only reason Atlanta got rid of him of was to make room for Brian McCann, who's been excellent in his own right. Estrada is batting .314, has a few HR, as well as 25 RBI and 14 R. A nice option at Catcher.

Infield

Mike Cuddyer - Minnesota Twins - Qualifies at 2B, 3B, and OF, which makes him even more valuable. He has always had hitting talent, and always put up great Minor League numbers, but never really got comfortable in the Majors. Now, he's getting to play everyday in RF, and at age 27, is making the most of it. In May, he's batting .375 and he has 8 doubles. He's a nice option at this point as long as he continues to play everyday.

Mike Lowell - Boston Red Sox - Qualifies at 2B and 3B, and he is starting to play everyday and hit the ball well. In May, he's batting .340 with a couple HR, 11 RBI, and 9 2B. Also has scored 12 runs in the potent Sox offense.

Jose Lopez - Seattle Mariners - He's just been really, really solid, but not many people seem to know about him. He's got a solid .295 average, but he's also contributed 5 HR, 30 RBI, and 23 Runs. From a 2B, this is excellent production.

Bill Hall - Milwaukee Brewers - He doesn't really have a set starting spot, but he still gets a solid amount of playing time, and qualifies at 2B, 3B, and SS. Has a nice .291 average, and 8 HR when not playing everyday is very good. Also has scored 23 runs.

Outfield

Matt Murton - Chicago Cubs - His power hasn't really come much yet, with only 2 HR, but he's got a .271 average, 17 RBI, and 18 R, and he's even got a couple of stolen bases. Last year he hit 7 HR in 140 AB, so he has decent power potential.

Curtis Granderson - Detroit Tigers - Not playing really well right now, with only a .255 average, but he hits for decent power and he's fast. He has 6 HR and 3 SB, and has 20/20 potential. He's been batting leadoff for the Tigers, so he should score a nice amount of runs this year (21 so far).

Dave Roberts - San Diego Padres - He won't provide any power or RBI, but he hits for a nice average, and he'll steal a lot of bases. He's batting .284 right now, and has a very nice 14 SB in 15 chances. If you need steals and he's available, pick him up and he should shore that up for you.

Barry Bonds - San Fransisco Giants - He's obviously not a sleeper, but I do think he's undervalued. His numbers have not been good this year - .233 AVG, 5 HR, and only 14 RBI. Which is why he could be available for trade. I think he's still a very good hitter, just in a slump right now. I'd expect the average to be up around .270 at least by the end of the year, and around 30 HR. If you can trade for him at a reasonable price, I wouldn't hesitate to do it.

Pitching

Fransisco Liriano - Minnesota Twins - He's set to make his first start on Friday, and that's a very good thing for fantasy owners. I've written about him here and here, and well, let's just say I'm high on his potential. He's got a great fastball, and absolutely filthy slider, and a good changeup. It will take him a while for his arm to get to the point where he can go deep into games, but he should provide quality innings and a good amount of strikeouts, without walking a lot of guys. If he's stll available in your league, stop reading and pick him up right now. You won't regret it.

Tony Armas - Washington Nationals - It seems like he's been around forever, but he is becoming a solid, reliable pitcher. He's got 4 wins, and his ERA is a paltry 3.02. With a over 2/1 K/BB ratio, and a WHIP of 1.12, while playing in the large expanse that is the Nationals home park, well, I can see him keeping this up.

Dave Bush - Milwaukee Brewers - His ERA is a shade over 4, but he has a K/BB ratioof almost 5/1. And with a WHIP of only 1.09, and an improving Brewer offense, he's a solid pickup.

J.J. Putz - Seattle Mariners - Now that he has emerged as the closer in Seattle after the disappointing start of Eddie Guardado, he's a must-own, and should rack up a good amount of saves. He has 4 of them already, but his WHIP is under, and his ERA is under 2. He also has 28 K in 19.2 innings.

Joel Zumaya - Detroit Tigers - This is pretty much for really deep leagues only, because he's still in middle relief. But, he's been excellent. He has 20 strikeouts and 7 walks in 18.1 innings. He has a 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and he's holding opponents to a 1.88 BAA. If/when Todd Jones gets hurt, Zumaya will take on a bigger role, and that coule make him very valuable.

Any other big ones I missed?

Suns win Game 5 in Double OT

I wasn't even planning on writing about this game, but it was too good not to mention, frankly. In double overtime, the Suns took the 3-2 series lead with a 125-118 victory, although the game was even closer than the 7 point difference would indicate.

The Clippers almost had the game in the bag, as they had a 111-108 lead with 3.8 seconds to play on the first overtime. However, Raja Bell caught the ball in the corner, and knocked down a 3 right in Daniel Ewing's eye, tying the game at 111, and sending it to a 2nd OT. Lots and lots of talk about how you should be fouling there, and I would agree, but I really don't think Ewing had time to. Bell caught it and shot it, and if Ewing would have fouled Bell would be going to the line to shoot 3. Can't take that risk.

Lots of excellent individual performers tonight for both teams. For the Clippers, you have to look at Elton Brand (33 points, 15 rebounds) and Sam Cassell (32 points, 5 assists), obviously. For the Suns, Shawn Marion (36 points, 20 rebounds) and Raja Bell (22 points, solid defense) led the way.

One unsung hero for the Clippers, I thought, was Shaun Livingston. Steve Nash was practically invisible in the overtimes, and that was because Shaun Livingston was guarding him. Earlier in the game, when Cassell was on Nash, the Suns pick & rolled the Clips to death. Then they made a switch, and Livingston shut Nash down. And to clarify, Livingston was decidedly not out of bounds when called for it.

One final note, I've heard over and over throughout these playoffs about how clutch Steve Nash and Sam Cassell are, but I don't see it. They take lots of big shots, and invariably they do make some, but they miss a huge amount of them. Look no further than the end of regulation. Sam Cassell gets called for an 8-second backcourt violation. Then Steve Nash takes a deep 3, which was not a good shot, and misses. Sam Cassell comes down and fires up a bad 3 with about 5 seconds left on the clock. Bad mental mistakes, bad shots.

All in all though, what a fantastic game in what has been a fantastic playoffs so far. Hopefully it will continue throughout. Game 6 is Thursday night.

Stop this Timeout Madness

Here was the Play-by-Play at the end of regulation in the Mavs/Spurs game:

0:39 - Jason Terry hits 2 FT.
San Antonio Full Timeout.
0:38 - Brent Barry throws the ball out of bounds.
0:23 - Jason Terry hits a jump shot.
San Antonio Full Timeout.
0:15 - Michael Finley hits a three-pointer.
Dallas Full Timeout.
0:08 - Dirk Nowitski hits 2 FT.
San Antonio 20-Second Timeout.
0:00 - Overtime.

4 timeouts in a span of 31 seconds. And the thing is, this is a common occurrence. I understand the need for timeouts late in a close game, but the sheer amount of them called ruins the flow of many great games and makes the endings hard to watch. Make no mistake, this was a great, well-played basketball game, but all these timeouts made the end of regulation boring, just the opposite of what it should be.

And while I'm on the subject of this game, the last foul call on Bowen (while Nowitski was driving to the hoop) was just a terrible call. If anything, it was Nowitski that committed the foul, seeing as how he was the one creating separation by pushing off with his off arm. I know Bowen is an extremely physical player, but the refs should not be deciding the games. Let the players play, because a bad call like this is the difference between a 2-2 series and 3-1 series. As Chuck Barkley said after the game, "The reffing has sucked." [/rant]

Wait, the Pistons lost again?

It's true, the series is tied up at 2 games apiece. Admittedly, a little hard to believe, and not just because I had Detroit in 5. This game was, in fact, "guaransheed", and that's usually a good indicator that the Pistons will win. Tonight, no so much, as Cleveland pulled it out 74-72.

Admittedly, the loss of the Rasheed to a sprained ankle (or at least, the loss of effectiveness of Rasheed) was huge. Although, as YAYSports points out, Cleveland was also playing without their starting SG. However, in my mind, I do think Rasheed is more important to Detroit than Hughes is to Cleveland, especially considering how Hughes has played this postseason (not so great) and how Flip Murray has played this postseason (very well).

Unlike Game 3, this wasn't so much LeBron taking over the game as it was Cleveland playing good defense and Detroit uncharacteristically missing some relatively easy shots (such as Hamilton's short jumper after Big Ben pulled down an offensive rebound). LeBron was not very good at all shooting tonight, finishing 8/23 from the field, including something like 2/13 in the 2nd half. But the all-around game was there again, with 8 rebounds and 9 assists. Anderson Varajeo and Donyell Marshall contributed off the bench, and the Cavs even got a nice scoring effort from Eric Snow.

For Detroit, only 33% from the field, including 4/15 from downtown - ouch. Rip Hamilton led the team with 30 points, butit uncharacteristically took him 25 shots to do it. Chauncey Billups, normally Mr. Reiliable in the clutch, never got it going.

For Game 5, the Pistons are going to Need Sheed to be back close to his normal self in order to get the offense back together. Detroit's defense was excellent again, but they need to remain potent offensively. If they don't, we could be in for a shocker in this series.

Knicks considering a buyout of Larry Brown

Reports today are that the New York Knicks, led by everyone's favorite Isiah Thomas, are considering a buyout of the final 4 years of Larry Brown's contract. Brown signed on before last year to a 5 year contract.

And so the joke that is the New York Knicks continues on. Remember, this is the same team that employs as many as 5 shoot-first PG's. They're far, far over the cap, and no real hope of contending anytime in the near future.

Last summer, they signed Brown as an attempt to get a little bit of legitimacy, overlooking the small fact that Brown was really a bad fit for the Knicks. He likes hard-working, defensive-minded veterans. The Knicks are young, offensive-minded, and Stephon Marbury is still the "star" of the team. Brown likes to overhaul his teams the way he sees fit. The Knicks were too far over the cap, in too big of a market, and had too much Isiah Thomas for that to work. It was really an awful fit, which is obvious now.

The buyout, if it happens, could be worth up to $40 million, but then again, money has never been a problem for the Knickerbockers. They've got the highest payroll in the league. Next year's not looking so good for them either, as they'll still be young and bad. And to make matters worse, they will swap draft places with the Bulls in the draft thanks to the Eddy Curry debacle trade.

If I'm Larry Brown (although last I checked, I'm not), I'd be praying for a buyout, because things aren't going to be getting any better in the Big Apple.

Cleveland will not go quietly into the night

Or at least, they've cut the series to 2-1 with a 86-77 victory, especially impressive since Larry Hughes did not play after the death of his brother. My condolences to the Hughes family.

Now about the game. Detroit pretty much did the same thing last series against Milwaukee, when they lost game 3 by like 20 points. Today they at least made it a close game, but either way they go home with the loss.

In Game 3, it was all about LeBron late, when he scored 15 of his 21 points in the 4th quarter, leading some to call him the Anti-Kobe (I'll let you decide for yourself there). He also had his second playoff double, obviously registering his first earlier in these playoffs. He finished with 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.

In the grand scheme of things, I doubt this will really mean much. I picked the Pistons to win in 5, and I see no reason to divert from that. Cleveland may be able to steal one more game, but I seriously doubt they can do more than that. But for tonight, this is enough, especially with LeBron passing another hurdle - coming up big and leading his team to a victory against a legitimate great team in the playoffs. He's 21 years old. He really has absolutely no ceiling whatsoever.

Anyway, Game 4 is Monday sometime, and I fully expect Detroit to come right back and get the win to go up 3-1. With all due respect to Cleveland, they're just not an elite team yet.

In the other matchup, which I was not able to watch much of because I was out and about, Dalls pulled off the 104-103 win. Tim Duncan continued his rampage through Dallas with 35 and 12, but Dirk scored 27 (21/24 FT? Can anyone comment on how he got to the line so much?), and for the second straight game Devin Harris was excellent. Game 4 is officially a must-win for the Spurs, because falling down 3-1 to a team of Dallas' caliber is really not a good idea.