Saturday, March 31, 2007

The Glorious Guest Essay: Uh, It's Jitter Time

Hello, friends (Nantz! 10 hours!). My name is Ted, and I regularly write here. The site is called "A Price Above Bip Roberts," which name is almost as meaningless as its content. Recently, though, it's been a bit more relevant. See, I went to Georgetown, and as you may know, Georgetown is playing in the Final Four this afternoon - er, early evening - at 6:07pm, or, more accurately, whenever Packer is ready to start frothing at the mouth.

I'm at work right now. Yea, that's right, 7:41am on a Saturday morning - a time you should only be awake if you're taking the SATs - and I'm at work. As such, I'm moderately bored. What's resulting is a post for my friend at Complete Sports. I figured it might be comical to look at the layout of my day. Or, at least in my mind, it might be.

10:00am
Mostly done with work but still at work and needing to stay for at least another 2 hours, I'll begin pulling video of the Kingdome in 1984. I work at ESPN, you see.

10:02am
While watching an old, grainy tape of GU vs. Houston in 1984, I'll cue up "Eye of the Tiger" or "The Gus Johnson I-Mix" on my IPod.

12:00pm
Not necessarily needing to be at work anymore, I'll head to the gym. Releasing of endorphins is a necessary element of your day when your team has a big game; I'd love to see the Ohio State gym at 10:00am on a fall Saturday. I'd imagine there's a lot of sluts coming off walks of shame in there. Oh wow. That was a really low blow. I'm a terrible person.

12:18pm
I'll be halfway through my new jone piece, the actual StairMaster itself. This thing is a real bitch. If you do it at Level 3, it's basically like slowly walking up stairs, and you exert nothing. By the time you get to Level 7, you can barely breathe, and every time you take a step, you're worried about crashing six feet down on your ass. In that way, it's kind of like what I used to feel like watching Georgetown back in the day. Remember Lee Scruggs? That was depressing. I loved how Georgetown fans used to rationalize his 6-11 height and ability to "drain" the three (i.e. miss six in a row, then hit one and walk back to the other end - not run - screaming "All Day!") as "a helluva complement to Boumtje-Boumtje."

By the way, the funniest thing about Boumtje-Boumtje, besides his entire playing career, is that on the Georgetown Info Line - which you could call for people's dorm room phone numbers - his name was pronounced as "Roo-BEN Baum-Sha-Baum-Sha." I used to call that number drunk and type in his letters just to hear it. This was before I had discovered girls, or fantasy sports, or "The Power Hour."

1:01pm
Driving home now, with my engine sputtering as only it can, I'll begin to contemplate the match-up: is Ron Lewis really the X-Factor? Is Matta smart enough to take out Oden for stretches, knowing his team will play better and faster? Are we going to be down early to an extent that this ulcer I think I'm developing on my lower left side gets even worse? What happens if we win? Is there any way I can justify NOT going to Atlanta to see my alma mater play in a national title game for the first time since I was four years old and had no idea who they were? (Let's ignore what happened in '85 for a moment).

2:00pm
I'm going to a movie before the game. There's two rationalizations for this: a) I expect to drink during the game, and since I live in an area without public transportation, I don't want to drive. I needed someone to drive me, but all I could find was a girl - my friends work weird hours, you see, and most are at work during the game - and in return, I had to attend a movie with her. I was honestly hoping I could see "Because I Said So." That way, if we lose, I can always tell people, "You know, it wasn't the worst thing that happened to me that day." Instead, we're seeing "The 300," which leads into: b) a movie where I can see naked people and bloodshed is probably a good lead-up to a Final Four where I hope to see naked people (CBS has to botch a cutaway one of these days) and bloodshed (I'm thinking Ivan Harris might catch one in the eye).

4:45pm
I'll take my seat at a bar in Manchester, CT. It ain't Atlanta; it ain't even New York; fuck, it ain't even Hartford. But this is Georgetown Basketball, and this is the Final Four, and the best we ever did when I roamed that campus insignificantly was the Sweet Sixteen - and we only did that because of Hampton over Iowa State - so this means a lot. "Bartender, cue up a Sam Adams. Yea, the Winter Lager. It's game time."

After that, I'll probably start sweating profusely, cursing periodically, texting people - both girls I'm endeavoring to go home with later and my friends about the game, drinking way too much for a person in my general health condition (poor), and ordering food only serving to worsen that condition. But hell, the last time we were in a Final Four it was the friggin' NIT version ('03), so I deserve this, right?

Darn right I do. Now as for 8:30pm - am I watching UCLA, hoping against hope Lorenzo Mata brought some brass knuckles to the court so they can win and help me in my pool? Or am I frantically searching kayak.com for a way to get to ATL? Either/or, it's gonna be a good day. Er, I hope.


Thursday, March 29, 2007

Final Four Predictions

Only a couple of days away from the Final Four, I figured it was time for my picks, so everyone can laugh at me when I'm wrong see what I think..

Florida vs. Ohio St.
This is a very interesting matchup, if only because Florida beat them so badly last year in the title game. UCLA is a better team now than they were last year, though I'm not sure that Florida is really much better (that's not a knock on Florida, they were just playing GREAT basketball last year at the end of the Tourney).

The big advantage for Florida would seem to be down low, but I don't think it's as bad for UCLA as it seems. I think Mata/Aboya will be able to defend well against Noah 1-on-1, and they will bring a double on Horford with the other post defender. That's risky because Horford is a really good passer, so it's vitally important for the Bruins guards to stay on the outside shooters, especially Humphrey.

That's why, as I wrote a few days ago, I think it's very important that UCLA gets a lot of full-court pressure on the guards and forces Donovan to maybe take Humphrey out of the game and bring in another ballhandler. This would make the kickouts from Horford less lethal and slow down the Florida offense.

So who do I pick to win? Well, if you're a regular reader you know my pick... UCLA.


Ohio St. vs. Georgetown
I think this game will boil down to whether or not Greg Oden can stay out of foul trouble. If he can, the Buckeyes can go to a zone with him as the anchor and have a shot at slowing down the Hoyas. But if Oden does get into foul trouble, I really have a hard time seeing how they'll stop Green, Hibbert, and Ewing. With the way the last few games have gone, I'm a bit skeptical that he can stay in the game.

For the Buckeyes, they'll be in the game because of Conley. He controls the pace of the game and gets everyone else shots. He can get open shots for guys like Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler, and Daequan Cook, and they've got to hit them.

But in the end, I like GEORGETOWN here, I really think that unless Oden plays extensive minutes, the Hoyas are too good offensively. Everyone can score, everyone can handle the ball, and everyone can pass well. That makes them really tough to handle.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Predicting Jim Nantz's Play on Words after the Championship Game

One of the things I most look forward to (from a trainwreck sort of perspective) is listening to what type of bad cliche or play on words Jim Nantz will come up with in the seconds after the NCAA Title game finishes. Last year he played it cool, with the phrase, "Florida - as good as it gets." Technically, this didn't really make a lot of sense to me, because Florida didn't even win their own conference during the season (meaning they weren't really as good as it gets), but I was willing to let it pass.

In the past, however, some of Nantz' work has been pretty bad (in my opinion). For instance, in 2005, when North Carolina (led by Sean May) won, Nantz said this:

It started in March, ended in April, and belonged to May.

WHAT? What does that even mean? Well, I know what it means, but how lame is that? In 1999, when Connecticut won the Title, Nantz came up with this:

UConn, you can.

That, I truly have no idea what it means. But that's beside the point. This year, I'm hoping Nantz can top himself... IE come up with something even cheesier than the May line from 2005.

So I've come up with my predictions for what he might say, and then you give your guesses in the comments. The winner gets a congratulations from me, as well as my undying respect. Now that's incentive!

If Florida wins...
- "'Noah' jokin' around - Gators are champions again."
- "'Noah problems for the Gators, they're the champions."
- "No gruff for this 'Billy' - Gators are the champions."
- "No Joakim, 'Noah' problem." (I'm covering by bases in case Noah gets hurt)

If UCLA wins...
- "How'land' do you spell championship? UCLA."
- "'Ben' there, done that - Bruins are the champions."
- "Make it a dozen, another title is 'Bruin' in Westwood."
- "UCLA, on a 'Collison' course with destiny are your champions."

If Ohio St. wins...
- "It's an ode to "Oden" - Buckeyes are the champions."
- "Put your "Buckeyes" on Ohio St. - they're the champions."

If Georgetown wins...
- "Like father, like 'Thompson' - The Hoyas are the champions."
- "By 'Georgetown,' the Hoyas are the champions."
- "Everyone else is 'Green' with envy - Georgetown is the champions."

What do you got?

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

MLB 2007 Predictions

I just had my first fantasy baseball draft of the season on Monday, so in my world that officially means that it's about time for the baseball season to start. First off, if you still want to be led astray some fantasy baseball help, you can check out some of my rankings:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Outfield
Starting Pitching

Now that that's covered, some predictions of standings, awards, and my long-awaited pick to win it all.

* denotes wildcard

AL EAST
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Toronto Blue Jays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Comments: Ho hum, another division title for the Yankees. In reality, this will be a tight race between the Yankees and Sox, but I like the Bronx Bombers a little better here, especially if/when Carl Pavano gets hurt and Phillip Hughes joins the rotation. I think the Yankees lineup is a little better, and there are fewer concerns in the bullpen. Elsewhere, business as usual. The DRays are better than ever, but still not good enough to get out of the cellar.


AL CENTRAL
1) Cleveland Indians
2) *Minnesota Twins
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Kansas City Royals

Comments: I suspect this will be the most controversial choice, but that's ok. As far as the top 4 teams go, this is the best division in baseball. At the top, I really like the Indians. For the second straight year, they were a lot better than their record would indicate. They have an explosive offense led by Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, an improving rotation, and the bullpen should be better (it can't be worse). Up next, I'll take the Twins slightly over the Tigers... largely dependent on the fact that I figure at some point early in the season at least a couple of the Carlos Silva, Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson trio will be replaced by some of the talented youngsters.

I'm not a huge fan of the Tigers offense, and Sheffield has a bad shoulder and has been declining for 4 years now. I would bet money that Kenny Rogers ERA will not be as low as 3.84 again, and the bullpen has some questions. I think the Tigers will have a White Sox like dropoff this year... which is to say they'll still be good, but not as good as they were in 2006. As for those said White Sox, I have a hard time seeing Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye replicate their great seasons from last year. Another minus is that Ozzie Guillen is batting Darin Erstad 2nd instead of Tad Iguchi... it's almost like they're trying to lose.


AL WEST
1) Los Angeles Angels
2) Oakland Athletics
3) Texas Rangers
4) Seattle Mariners

Comments: I don't have a lot of confidence in this pick... mostly a gut feeling. If Rich Harden remians healthy all season long, he can be a Cy Young candidate and the A's can be back in the playoffs, but I'll believe that when I see it. As it is, as long as the Angels let some of the young guys play, I think their rotation will be enough. But again, I wouldn't put any money on this.


NL EAST
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) *New York Mets
3) Atlanta Braves
4) Florida Marlins
5) Washington Nationals

Comments: Certainly a large gap here between the top 3 teams and the last 2... the Marlins overachieved some, and I'm not sure they can compete with the top 3. The Nationals should be really bad, so we can discount them. Up top, it's the pitching concerns of the Mets that have me putting them at #2. I'm not in love with this Phillies team, but I think the stellar young pitching of Cole Hamels and Brett Myers (if he can, um, stay out of trouble) will be enough for the Phils to take the East.


NL CENTRAL
1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Houston Astros
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Cincinnati Reds
6) Pittsburgh Pirates

Comments: To be blunt, this division sucks. Which isn't really a surprise, since it sucked last year, but not much has changed. I'll take the Cardinals as long as Carpenter and Pujols stay healthy. Brewers are young and talented but I don't think they're quite there yet. After that, it's anyone's guess. I feel confident that the Reds and Pirates will take up the rear, but I don't feel confident about much else.


NL WEST
1) Arizona Diamondbacks
2) San Diego Padres
3) Los Angeles Dodgers
4) San Francisco Giants
5) Colorado Rockies

Comments: I like the DBacks here... their pitching is not as good as the Pads, but they have a look of good hitters. Brandon Webb will anchor the rotation, I think the Big Unit will bounce back some, and Livan Hernandez improved a lot once he came over to Arizona. A lot of the offensive guys are a year away from becoming household names, but I like the direction Arizona is taking. They're my pick.


AWARDS
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore (CLE) - The most underrated player in the MLB, if only because people don't realize that he's the best CF in the MLB.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) - Still the best hitter in the MLB.

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (MIN) - Should be taking aim at his 4th consecutive Cy Young.

NL Cy Young: Brandon Webb (ARI) - With Arizona a winning team, it's Webb's turn to take home the hardware.

AL Rookie of the Year: Alex Gordon (KC) - All the hype, finally time for him to produce.

NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young (ARI) - Could be a 20/20 man as a rookie.


Playoffs
Yankees over Twins in 5
Indians over Angels in 4

Mets over Diamondbacks in 4
Cardinals over Phillies in 5

Yankees over Indians in 6
Mets over Cardinals in 7

Yankees over Mets in 6

World Series Champion: New York Yankees.

So... where do you disagree the most??

Monday, March 26, 2007

Fantasy Baseball Ranking: Starting Pitchers

We finish our fantasy baseball roundup with a look at the top 10 starting pitchers.

(1) Johan Santana - This is a no brainer... really, there's nothing I should even have to say here.

(2) Chris Carpenter - Carpenter has been a durable pitcher over the last 3 years, averaging over 210 IP over that span. He's also maintained a good ERA, and excellent WHIP in the low 1s. But he'd up at #2 because of the high number of strikeouts while maintaining a good K/BB ratio, whil allowing only about 21 HR per year. As an added bonus Carpenter has 12 CG and 7 SHO over the past 2 seasons. The peripherals look good, the actual numbers look good, and that's why Carpenter is in the #2 spot.

(3) Roy Oswalt - I have Carpenter as 2, but I think a case could certainly be made for Oswalt there as well. He's been just as durable (perhaps even more so) as Carpenter. Basically the differences are this... Oswalt's ERA has been lower (thanks in large part to allowing less HR than Carpenter), while Carpenter strikes out a few more batters and has a lower WHIP. It's close, but Oswalt falls in at 3.

(4) Jake Peavy - For the casual baseball fan, they might look at his 11-14 record and 4.09 ERA last year and think this 4 spot is a joke. Lucky for you you're smarter than the average bear and can recognize the goodness of Peavy. For one, that 4.09 ERA was fluky last year... yes, he gave up a few more HR and walked about 10 more batters than the previous year, but he allowed 25 more hits in 2006 than in 2005. That tends to be a stat that doesn't carry over too much from year to year. So I think the ERA will be down some this year. The good thing about Peavy his K/9 is over 9, and as long as the hits total comes down a little the WHIP should settle in at around 1.15. Not bad.

(5) Brandon Webb - Webb was really solid last year. Not spectacular, but solid. He does not post big strikeout numbers like the guys above him (not that his strikeout total is bad), but everything else is nice. The ERA was in the low 3s, the WHIP was low. In his 3 full years he has pitched at least 208 innings in each season. His number of hits allowed was a little low compared to previous years, but not outlandishly so. The key with Webb is that over the past 2 years his BB total has dramatically decreased... as long as he keeps that up, he's really good.

(6) Roy Halladay - Almost across the board, Halladay's numbers match up well with any other pitcher in the MLB... the reason's he's at #6, though, is that his strikeout totals have been pretty low compared to other top pitchers. His BB totals are great, so the ERA and WHIP is low, but the low K totals put him at #6.

(7) Carlos Zambrano - Like Halladay, the numbers are really good except for one category... that category was strikeouts for Halladay, but for Zambrano the problem is that his BB total is too high. He averaged nearly 5 BB/9 innings pitched, which isn't very good. On a positive note, he's been very durable, he strikes out a good number of batters, and he has kept the ERA low because he doesn't give up too many HRs.

(8) Felix Hernandez - Admittedly, this is a bit of a hunch. The peripherals are very good for someone his age, I'm just betting he's going to make the leap sooner rather than later. The Mariners don't really let him use his slider much (probably a good decision), but his K rates are still solid and his control is not bad. He gave up a few too many HRs, but he's still learning how to pitch. With his stuff, I think he'll have a great year at age 22, which is what he turns in early April. If the Mariners let him use his slider more, he'll be even better.

(9) John Lackey - I think Lackey always gets overlooked some, but he is usually among the best pitchers in the AL, and his past 2 seasons have been excellent. He strikes out nearly 1 batter per inning, his BB rates are pretty solid, and he just doesn't give up many HRs at all. There's a lot to like.

(10) John Smoltz - Smoltz will turn 40 in May, but he is still the ace of the Braves staff after a very good 2006 season. His transition back to the rotation from the pen is complete, and his K rate actually increased in 2006 from 2005, which is certainly positive considering his age. He's got great control, and has shown no durability concerns after spending 4 years in the bullpen... he's pitched around 230 innings each of the last 2 seasons.

What changes would you make?

Sunday, March 25, 2007

The Final Four is Set

With Florida getting back to the Final Four, and Georgetown coming back to beat North Carolina, the Final Four is set. Honestly, as boring as the first round was with the lack of upsets, it has made these later rounds better, because the quality of play of been high with a lot of good teams. I expect that trend to continue, because we're going to have 4 of the 6 or 7 best teams in the NCAA playing next weekend, and I'm not sure that was the case last year.

Overall, I would say this year's Tournament has not been as exciting as last year's (then again, no Tournament I can ever remember has been as exciting as the first 4 rounds last year), but I really think this year's Final Four will be a lot more exciting than last year.

Anyway, some questions for the Final Four, of which I don't have answers now (maybe later in the week!), but I think will be interesting.

- Is UCLA more suited to play Florida than they were last year in the Tournament?
- Will UCLA doubling on the posts be enough to stop Al Horford?
- Can Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green get open shots against the backcourt of UCLA?
- Can UCLA speed up the game enough to force Billy Donovan to take out Humphrey and put in another ballhandler to handle pressure?
- Who will get the best of what should be a great Oden vs. Hibbert matchup?
- Can anyone slow down Mike Conley?
- If Greg Oden gets in foul trouble, can the Buckeyes slow down the Hoyas down low?
- Can the Hoyas make outside shots against the Ohio St. zone?

Anyway, lots more to come, but these were just a few questions that will have to be answered in the Final Four... what are you most interesting in seeing?

Saturday, March 24, 2007

UCLA making a return trip to the Final Four!

First, w00t woot!!

In many wins, it wasn't a pretty win, because both teams were a little sloppy at times with the ball. However the Bruins wouldn't have it any other way, dominating the game with defense and timely shooting, and doing enough to beat a fantastic Kansas team. It was clear that no matter how deep and talented Kansas is, UCLA was the better team on Saturday.

The star of the game was Pac-10 Player of the Year Arron Afflalo, who had been in a shooting slump. He was 10-15 from the field (3-7 from downtown) for 24 points, but that doesn't even tell the whole story. At least twice he had the killer "end of shot clock" 3s... the kind where it looks like a guy is just trying to throw a desperation shot up... and then it went in. Those are spirit-breakers.

Meanwhile, Darren Collison did what he always does... he was 4/8 from the field, 2/3 from downtown, 4/4 from the line, and applied constant defensive pressure. Jay Bilas said something about how Collsion has "been every bit as good as Farmar." Well, that's a little off. Collison has been better than Farmar was. He's more efficient offensively, and he's a lot better defensively. Of course, Collison is better defensively than just about everyone.

Other kudos include to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who was very active on both ends of the floor. Then there's Josh Shipp, especially for that big 3 at the end of the half. I thought Russell Westbrook came in and brought a good spark defensively. Aboya was active on the defensive end. It was a total team effort, especially defensively.

For Kansas, take nothing away from there, because I really think they are one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the country. Mario Chalmers was everywhere defensively. Brandon Rush played a really nice game, and Julian Wright is one of the best multi-skilled players in the country. I have a feeling they'll be back next year, once again playing to get to the Final Four. Heck, even if they lose 1 or 2 guys early, they're still good enough to get back.

So in the end, it was the experience, defensive tenacity, and timely shooting that gets UCLA back to the Final Four. What a game. Now they'll just await for the winner of Florida and Oregon, and knowing UCLA and Ben Howland, they're probably hoping for revenge against Florida.

Elite 8 Preview

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to watch much of the action on Friday (though enough to say that was clearly a travel by Jeff Green), so instead I'll make some Elite 8 picks.

Ohio St. vs. Memphis
You know what, I kinda like Memphis here. I feel like people are still underrating Memphis... on ESPN Dick Vitale said something about them overachieving, but I think that's selling them short. I mean, they just beat a really good Texas A&M team in San Antonio. They didn't have a tough schedule, but this is a superb team. Memphis is really athletic, shoots the ball well, and they have size down low to play with Oden (though Dorsey has to be careful about the fouls. Ohio St. is a slight favorite, but I like Memphis right now.

Kansas vs. UCLA
You know my pick here... Kansas struggled mightily with Southern Illinois, a GREAT defensive team but only average offensive team. UCLA is another great offensive team but a little better than the Salukis offensively. But seriously, this should be an absolutely fantastic game. I'll take UCLA.

Florida vs. Oregon
Oregon can beat anyone because they are such good shooters... we know that. But, I think things will be a little harder going against Florida. The difference between Florida and Butler or Winthrop is that the Gators big men are really athletic, and can stay with guys on the perimeter and not give up open shots. That can they can score down low, especially Noah. I like Florida to get back to the Final Four.

North Carolina vs. Georgetown
This might be the most fascinating matchup of the weekend just because of the contrasting styles. North Carolina likes to run on every possession, Georgetown is a patient, half-court team. The Tar Heels have struggled this year when forced to play a halfcourt game, and Georgetown can make them do that. I like Georgetown to control the tempo, get the ball down low, and beat the Tar Heels in what should be another great game.

What are your picks?

Friday, March 23, 2007

O.J. Mayo = Still a Punk

If you haven't already, check out this video from Mayo's last game.

With about a minute left in the game, he tapped the ball away for a steal, then got a pass and was open on the break... where he decided to toss the ball off the backboard, slam it down, and then toss the ball into the stands. Not like a flip, a full out throw into the stands. This coming right after the story of his recruitment.

I'm definitely happy that UCLA never went after this guy recruiting.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

4 teams advance to Elite 8

Some quick thoughts:

- Great effort by Southern Illinois, and they did exactly what they had to do to stay in the game. They slowed things down, made it a halfcourt game, and got in the shorts of Kansas on every pass, dribble, and shot. In the end, Kansas was just a little too athletic for them off the dribble, but the Salukis have a great effort.

- Honestly, I'm not sure why every announcer was so confused at the refs taking 1.1 seconds off the clock. Seemed pretty clear to me that the ball bounced inbounds.

- After all of the clutch shots that Law made all season, who'da thought that his missed layup might have been the difference in the game? Shocking.

- Well the Tennessee/Ohio St. went how I thought for the most part, albeit in a manner that I didn't think. I thought Tennessee would pose a lot of problems for the Buckeyes, and they did, but I didn't quite think they'd have a 20 point lead at one point. Great job by the Buckeyes in the 2nd half to just continually get to the rim.

- I've been talking about how good Conley is even before it became popular to do so... but seriously, how good was he in this game? He got in some foul trouble, but he finished with 17 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 1 turnover. Think about this... he's a true freshman with a suspect jumpshot, but I'm not so sure he isn't the best PG in America. He gets in the lane at will, he has unbelievable vision and is a great passer, and he extremely quick defensively. Last year I raved on and on about Marcus Williams... well, Conley's better. And he doesn't even have a jumpshot yet.

- UCLA... takin' care of business. Saturday's West Regional Final between Kansas and UCLA should be a heck of a game.

- In Non-Tourney news, the much maligned Tubby Smith is now the head coach of the Gophers. For proximity reasons, the Gophers are probably my 2nd favorite team after UCLA, and I couldn't be happier. Kentucky has struggled for the past couple of seasons, but consider some things:

1) 14 out of the past 16 Tournaments is pretty good.
2) He can win with his own players... from 2003-2005, Kentucky lost 12 regular season games.
3) He hasn't lost his touch recruiting. People forget, in 2004 Joe Crawford, Randolph Morris, and Rajon Rondo were all top 25 recruits. Things haven't worked out as well as hoped there, but he's getting good players.
4) Getting back to the Tournament within 2 years in Minnesota will be considered a success with what they have in the program right now... I think Tubby is certainly capable of that.