Looking Ahead: My 2nd Round NBA Playoff Predictions

I know 2 games are already in, as San Antonio beat Dallas 87-85, and Detroit beat Cleveland by a lot, but I'm giving my picks anyway, because it's my sports blog, and I can! So here we go.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Detroit Pistons vs. 4) Cleveland Cavaliers
Well, we saw Detroit dominate Game 1, but that didn't influence my pick. None of the games will be that big of blowouts, as I don't even think it's possible for Detroit to shoot that well. But right now, Cleveland is not nearly good enough to hang with the Pistons. They are good enough, I think, to steal 1 game like the Bucks did in round 1, but that's about it. PISTONS IN 5.

2) Miami Heat vs. 3) New Jersey Nets
A matchup that was hyped a lot before the playoffs began, but it lost a little bit of its luster when both teams struggled a bit in round 1. Still, both are very talented, and it should make for an entertaining series. Chicago made Miami look old in the first round, and New Jersey has that fast break capability as well. The key will be whether VC will still play aggressive after a hard foul or two from Udonis Haslem, and who Jason Kidd guards. If Kidd is ever forced to guard Dwyane Wade, that's a big matchup problem for the Nets. My guess, Wade carries them enough to keep it close, and the Big Fella does enough to push the Heat over the top. HEAT IN 7.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Antonio Spurs vs. 4) Dallas Mavericks
This has been said about a million times, but it's a shame these teams have to meet in round 2 instead of the Conference Finals. If Game 1 is any indicator, we're going to be seeing a lot of these things:

• Manu Ginobili acting like he's been hit by a truck after any type of contact.
• Bruce Bowen doing everything but giving Dirk Nowitski a clothesline to stop him defensively.
• Tim Duncan showing again and again why he is one of the top PF of all-time.
• Dirk Nowitski being forced to bring out his full repertoire against Bruce Bowen, and firmly establishing himself (if he hasn't done so already) as one of the top 5 players in the NBA.

That being said, I still think the Spurs are a little too tough. The Mavs are much improved defensively, but the Spurs are always tough on that side of the ball. I think Game 1 was a pretty good preview. We're going to see a lot of good basketball being played, a lot of close games, but ultimately, the Spurs being a little too tough to overcome. SPURS IN 6.

2) Phoenix Suns vs. 6) Los Angeles Clippers
Very intriguing series, because the Clippers big men are a little more skilled than the Lakers big men were, and because Sam Cassell will be smart enough to realize that you absolutely can't play the Suns pace. So look for Brand to put up huge numbers in this series. But I think Phoenix' young players matured a bit in the first round. Leandro Barbosa was great at the end of the series, Boris Diaw was great, and James Jones started to play well. My only concern is Nash's ankle, but I think that will be well enough for Phoenix to get in their game, and for Barbosa and Diaw to keep playing well. SUNS IN 7.

Thoughts?

Looking Back: My 1st Round Predictions

Now's the time to look back and laugh at me for my 1st round predictions. Let's look at how I did.

Detroit Pistons vs. Milwaukee Bucks
My Pick: Pistons in 5.
Actual: Pistons in 5
Comments: Hey, off to a good start! I figured Milwaukee would be able to steal one game from Detroit, which they did in Game 3. After that, it was all Detroit.

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
My Pick: Heat in 5.
Actual: Heat in 6.
Comments: The Bulls were better than I thought, and they made the Heat look very bad in Games 3 and 4. They neutralized Shaq Fu a little more than I thought, but then he took over in the series clincher.

New Jersey Nets vs. Indiana Pacers
My Pick: Nets in 7.
Actual: Nets in 6.
Comments: Through 4 games, I was feeling confident here. The Pacers were playing well, and the Nets weren't getting enough help from those not part of the Big 3. In Games 5 and 6, the Nets played a little better, despite Anthony Johnson (Anthony Johnson!) dropping 40 on Kidd and the Nets in Game 6.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards
My Pick: Cavs in 7.
Actual: Cavs in 6.
Comments: Well, the most entertaining series of the first round, partly because of 3 game-winners for the Cavs giving them 3 1-point victories, and partly because there was little to no defense being played all series, and I'm shallow like that.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
My Pick: Spurs in 5.
Actual: Spurs in 6.
Comments: I knew the Kings would be able to make this competitive, but they were better than I thought. I barely knew of Kevin Martin before this series, but he played very well and even got a game-winner. Bonzi Wells (note: in a contract year) dominated Bruce Bowen all series long. Very entertaining series to watch.

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
My Pick: Lakers in 7.
Actual: Suns in 7.
Comments: See here.

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
My Pick: Nuggets in 6.
Actual: Clippers in 5.
Comments: Well, I counted on a couple of things that didn't happen: 1) Carmelo being able to dominate a couple of games and win them by himself. 2) Most importantly, the Nuggets actually showing up. This isn't meant as a slight to the Clippers, because they had an excellent series, and they should be optimistic about their chances next round, but the Nuggets didn't really come to play. Other than Game 1, what an awful series.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
My Pick: Mavs in 6.
Actual: Mavs in 4.
Comments: I knew Dirk & Co. were good, but in hindsight, I underrated them. They're tough defensively, and Dirk is one of the top 5 players in the NBA. Great series for Dallas.

And with that, the first round predictions are officially in the book. Now on to Round 2 Predictions, which I'll cover in my next post.

Where was Kobe?

Clutch. Big game player. Plays best when it matters. Heart of a champion.

Throw them all out, at least as far as I'm concerned, after watching the 2nd half of the Suns domination of LA, 121-90.

Am I overreacting a little? Probably. I feel a bit cheated. One of the best playoff series in recent memory, and it deserved a better ending than this.

I'll admit, I drank the "Kobe Kool-Aid." I said before the series began that I thought he'd put the Lakers on his back and carry them to a 7-game series win:

Third, and most important, Kobe Bryant plays to the Lakers. I think he's the one guy that can single-handedly lead his team to a series victory. He averaged over 40 points a game in the 4 meetings between these two teams. I can see Kobe averaging about 45 a game over the series, and this being the most entertaining series of the first round. Excuse me while I take a drink of the Kobe Kool-Aid.

After 6 games, I remained convinced. Kobe had played a great series, getting teammates involved when necessary, passing well, shooting well, and playing good defense. Only in Game 6 did he "take over" and assert himself scoring wise. He scored 50 on 20/35 shooting, and the Lakers had the game and series wrapped up until Shawn Marion had the ball bounce to him, kicked it out, and Tim Thomas hit a 3.

I understand Kobe was in an extremely unique situation. He had to try to balance when to be assertive and when to be passive. With some, he couldn't win. I understand that. That's no excuse for his play in the 2nd half.

With the team down 60-45, Kobe kept them even remotely close in the first half, scoring 23 points on 8/13 shooting. He had no help inside, which was the Lakers gameplan early. Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom played their worst games of the series. Smush Parker was himself, which is to say he struggled mightily. Kobe needed to take this game over, or at least try.

Instead, he was beyond passive. In the 2nd half, he was 0/3 from the field. He scored 1 point, which came after a 3-in-the-key technical foul on Phoenix. He didn't even look to shoot. He looked like a young Vince Carter after taking a hard foul.

Even beyond the numbers, he didn't look like he cared. He didn't move without the ball. He didn't really put much effort from what I can tell into scoring, and it showed with 2 offensive fouls just from laziness. Defensively, I didn't see any effort. And this was Game 7 of a playoff series.

"If we were going to get back in this type of game, we have to have everybody contributing," Bryant said afterwards. Apparently, he didn't include himself when he said that "everybody" had to contribute. Kobe didn't even try to do his part.

Bill Simmons, while not really an NBA "expert," is usually pretty insightful on the NBA, and had this to say on Friday:

Which reminds me, if Kobe doesn't completely eviscerate Bell in Game 7, everyone on the planet is banned from making any more Kobe-MJ comparisons. We all know that MJ would have dropped 55 on Bell, shut down Nash on the other end and disemboweled D'Antoni for good measure. Kobe, if you're going to steal MJ's fist clench/shake from Game 1 of the 1998 Finals without asking, you need to take this all the way. You cannot lose Game 7. You can't. Even if you're playing 4-on-5 and Jax keeps refusing to play Vujacic.

Let's just say Kobe failed.

I'm not saying any of this would have made a definitive difference the way the Suns played. They earned the win. For 6 1/2 games, Kobe was great.

Too bad he was nowhere to be found for the final 2 quarters of the series.

Another Night, Another Classic

Wow.

What else can you say? A fitting end to an unbelievable series, with Damon Jones coming on, playing the last few seconds, and hitting the game-winner in OT to push to Cavs to a 114-113 victory.

Lots and lots and lots of things to like about this one. Another great game by LeBron. An unbelievable shot by Gilbert Arenas (followed by a couple of huge missed FT), Damon Jones not playing all game until hitting the game-winner, and so on and so forth. Let's go over it in seemingly random points:

- LeBron showed his versatility tonight, scoring 32 despite not really having an outside shot. Lots and lots and lots of layups for him. After watching Game 6, I'm convinced of a few things regarding LeBron: 1) He's the fastest player end-to-end in the NBA. 2) He is the best finisher in the NBA. 3) He is the best player in the NBA. At age 21.

- Watching the game, I thought Larry Hughes was aboslutely awful. 3/17 shooting, 9 points, 4 turnovers... and now I see he had 12 assists (including the final one). Still, playing 50 minutes, going 3/17 with 9 points? Ouch.

- I must give Caron Butler a hand here. 18 points, 20 rebounds!, and 5 assists, and he was working hard all night. I was really, really impressed with him throughout the series.

- I really just can't say enough about Damon Jones. His line in the boxscore: 0 minutes, 1/1 FG, 2 points. Sitting through the game on the bench, and then through overtime, and then entering and hitting a shot right away? That's difficult, believe me.

- Gilbert Arenas' 3-pointer at the end of regulation was really one of those times where you do a double-take because you're not sure if you actually just saw what you think you did. That shot was about 5 feet behind the 3-point line. Nothing but net. I just sort of blinked because I didn't think we could all be this lucky. After how exciting the NCAA Tournament was this year, I actually kinda figured the NBA Playoffs would be a bit of a letdown this year. That couldn't have been farther from the truth. They've been unvbelievable.

- 2nd and 3rd best players for the Cavs in Game 6? Donyell Marshall and Flip Murray.

- What does Drew Gooden have to be thinking right about now? After Game 1, his stock couldn't have been higher. In Game 6, he played 13 minutes in an OT game, scored 2 points, grabbed 3 rebounds, and was the 3rd best PF on his own team.

- Watching Eric Snow and Jared Jeffries play offense is some type of cruel and unusual punishment. Seriously, I watched Jared Jeffries lead Indiana to a National Title game. Now, he can't make an outside shot to save his life. What the heck happened?

- Anyone know what LeBron said to Gilbert Arenas when Arenas was at the FT line?

- Congrats to YAYsports and all other Cavs fans after this. Good luck with Detroit, because the Cavs are going to need.

Phoenix/LA Game 7 Saturday night. Be there or be square (or be both, if you want).

Twins Update: Ron Gardenhire, meet Francisco Liriano

Dear Ron Gardenhire,

I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but there's some guy named Francisco Liriano on your team. Coming into the year, he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and nothing he has done so far has shown that to be false in any way. He has a 6:1 BB:K ratio through 16.1 innings. That's pretty good.

Well, I do know you're aware of this, but Kyle Lohse had another poor outing tonight. 4 innings, 9 hits, and 7 runs. This raises his ERA to 9.71. No, that's not a typo.

The point is Ron, with the team at 11-18 and looking more anemic by the day, shouldn't some type of change be made? If you're going to continue starting guys like Tony Batista and Juan Castro, can't we at least have a chance in the pitching staff? Like, put Liriano in the rotation and take Lohse out? Take a look at the numbers. Take a look at any numbers. I'll even give some to you.

(OBP/SLG)
Juan Castro - .269/.284
Tony Batista - .316/.400 (well, I guess that's not so bad. i'll bet you a wooden nickel it gets worse by the end of the year)

But hey, at least Jason Kubel's getting ABs down in AAA!

Signed,
Twins15

P.S. Are you as worried as I am about having to face Joel Zumaya for a long time as I am? He's going to be a great pitcher, whether it's in the Pen or in the Rotation.

Game 7 is forthcoming

Once again, the Suns have escaped to live another day, beating the Lakers 126-118 in an overtime thriller. The game was sent to OT when Tim Thomas hit a 3-pointer with 6.7 seconds left, tying the game at 105, followed by Kobe trying to win the game, relatively speaking. It didn't quite make it to the rim.

This sets up a Game 6 Saturday night, and it really should be a fabulous game. Raja Bell will be back, and tempers will definitely flare. I guarantee Kobe will bring his A-Game (whether it's good for LA or not), and the Suns will be geared up to win the game in front of their home crowd.

In Game 6, Kobe scored 50, but that may have been part of the problem. This tells me 2 things: 1) LA didn't get the ball inside enough (Kwame was 8/9, Lamar Odom was 8/14) and most importantly 2) LA played Phoenix' game. Unlike the first four games of the series, LA tried to match Phoenix's pace, for some reason unknown to me. Sure, they practically had the game in the bag until Marion rebounded a missed shot by Nash and kicked it out to Thomas, but that tied it at 105, which is not where the Lakers want the score to be. In overtime, this was even more apparent, as Kobe tried to beat the Suns by himself, reverting back to regular season form, and the Suns ran them out of the gym.

I'm sure you'll read lots of stuff today and tomorrow about how the Lakers blew their chance, and how they can't beat Phoenix at home in Game 7, but I don't see it that way, not with Phil Jackson coaching the Lakers. If I can tell that the Lakers trying to match the Suns pace was a bad idea, I can guarantee Phil knows it too. I expect Game 7 to be very physical, and I expect Phil to get the Lakers to slow it way down, and Kobe to be playing more like he did in Games 2 and 3, pounding the ball down low. The game will depend on if Phoenix can run their style or not (Phoenix when it scores over 100: 3-0. Phoenix when it doesn't score 100: 0-3) With Phil Jackson at the helm, I expect the Lakers to slow the game down, pound the ball inside, get back on defense, and when a hard-fought game 7.

Before the series I picked the Lakers in 7, and I'm sticking with it. Hopefully we'll see more of the same in Game 7 as we've seen throughout, because this has been special.

Da King has returned

After a Game 4 victory for Washington, LeBron and the Cavs offense were firing on all cylinders in Game 5. Their only problem was, the Wizards were doing the same thing, making for an extremely entertaining game, and probably the second best game of the playoffs so far (following Game 4 in LA/Phoenix), as the Cavs won 121-120 in OT.

King James led the Cavs with 45 on the night to go along with 7 rebounds and 6 assists as well as the game-winner at the end of OT (more on that later). For the Wizards, it was the same old story for them, as they were led by the Big 3 - Arenas scored 44 points, Jamison had 32 points, and Butler had 20 points.

About that last play. What awful defense by the Wizards. I mean, it was a nice play by LeBron and all, but the defense was just terrible. 3.6 seconds left, Cavs down by 1, everyone and their mother knows the Cavs want to get the ball to LeBron. So what do the Wizards do? They don't switch the screen, LeBron gets it fairly easily. Ok, this is still workable. Antawn Jamison is coming, presumably to trap him in the corner and force up a difficult shot. Instead, Jamison pulled a matador (and just waved him through) and didn't cut off the baseline, allowing LeBron to get the sideline and get a relatively easy layup (although Free Darko says it wasn't an easy play, LeBron just made it look so easy. Which could be right). Goodnight, Cavs win.

The unsung hero was Flip Murray, who had 12 points, but most of them came late in the 3rd when LeBron was on the bench with 4 fouls. Cleveland actually increased their lead in that time (I think it was 6:50), and Flip had a lot to do with that. Of course, Washington's [lack of] defense was also a big help, as they gave the Cavs layup after layup.

In the end, a thrilling game and a thrilling ending. Yaysports, for their part, is trying to play it cool, but the fact is, between this series, the Phoenix/LA series, the SA/Sacramento series, and the Miami/Chicago series, the NBA is back. And with all this young talent in the league, it could become better than ever.

Game 6 is Friday night. Expect another dandy.

Oh, so that's why they were the 2 seed

It seems that all the talk lately has been centering around a potential Lakers/Clippers matchup in round 2, but the Suns pulled a Lee Corso, saying "Not so fast!" Down 3-1 in the series, and their backs against the wall, they responded in a big way with a 114-97 victory, finally playing their style of basketball. However, this could be a costly victory, because there's no telling what the status of Raja Bell for next game will be, following a clothesline he gave Kobe Bryant, earning him a flagrant foul and ejection (because he had gotten a technical foul earlier in the game). Some thoughts:

- I hate to just quote Bill Simmons a lot, but he had something in his article that I related with, or at least showed how I feel:

There are so many incredible subplots, so much going on, such a perfect contrast of styles ... honestly, I don't know what to do with myself. It's like watching a bench-clearing brawl in baseball: What do you concentrate on when 50 things are happening at once? For the past few days, I have had more than a few friends and readers contact me just to say that they find themselves strangely captivated by this series, and they're not even really sure why.

Well, I know why. It's a fantastic series, that's why. Consider the following subplots ...

He then goes on to explain a bunch of the subplots in the series, but that's not really the important part. The thing is, this has been one of the most enjoyable series' for me to watch in a long time. Both teams are talented, have very good coaches (D'Antoni might be the best offensive mind in the NBA, Phil Jackson is one of the top coaches in NBA history), and are playing well this series. Both teams are trying to play their style of play. For 3 1/2 games, the Lakers have succeeded (Game 2,3,4, as well as the 2nd and 3rd quarters of Game 1). We've had a lot of dramatics - Kobe hitting the game tying shot and then the game winner in OT, Nash being named the MVP amidst much disagreement, as well as the ongoing subplot of Kobe doing a complete 180 in his game. It's just been an unbelievably enjoyable series throughout.

- Best player on the floor in Game 5? Try Boris Diaw. 25 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists. He was efficient, he has his mid-range game going as well as his post game, he finished very well and very strong at the rim, he rebounded, and he got others involved. He was a lot of fun to watch.

- For a while late in the 3rd and early in the 4th, we saw Kobe trying to be, well, Kobe of old (and my old I mean the regular season). The Suns built up a big lead, and Kobe started to look for his shot a lot more. Then, he got clotheslined by Raja Bell, and I thought this was where we would see him really take over, now that he had a little extra motivation. And indeed, immediately he drained a 3 to cut the lead to 10 points. But then the Suns just didn't miss. They hit back-to-back 3s, and that was that.

- I don't know if this needs to be said or not, but Jim Jackson is done. He can't play defense anymore, and he lost whatever shot he once had. He played 7 minutes tonight, had 1 assist, 1 personal foul, and 1 turnover. He was absolutely worthless out there, and it's really been like that all series.

- Phoenix needs to continue to get scoring out of Leandro Barbosa if they're going to win the series. He scored 15 in game 1, took a mini vacation, and decided to play again today, scoring 11 points and hitting a big 3 late. This is especially important if Raja Bell does get suspended, because then Barbosa may be forced to start, and might even have to guard Kobe, further increasing his importance.

- Game 6: Thursday night, 9:30 Central Time. Clear your calendar, it should be very entertaining.

Two teams advance to the next round

We are now down to 14 teams remaining in the NBA Playoffs, as Dalls finished off a sweep of Memphis tonight with a 102-76 beatdown, while the Clippers finished off the listless Nuggets 101-83 in game 5. All and all, the two most boring series, which is not what I expected.

I knew the Clippers were a good team, but I didn't know they were quite that good and that the Nuggets were quite that bad. I'll go over this when I look back at my first round predictions when the round is over, but I mean, the Nuggets forgot to show up here. And the Clippers just absolutely pounded them. And this was even with the Nuggets like Reggie Evans doing any and everything they could to get an edge.

On the Grizz side, they are still in search of their first ever playoff win, as they have been swept in their 3 playoff appearances. Somebody forgot to tell the Grizzlies (or at least those ones not named Pau Gasol) that they had some basketball games to play. Average margin of victory for the Mavs was 14 points. They'll take on the winner of the Spurs/Kings series, which is tied at 2, in what should be the most entertaining round 2 matchup if they play the Spurs.

Actually, both Western matchups could be great. Imagine Dallas/San Antonio in one semifinal, and then Lakers/Clippers in the other one. [Paul Maguire] You don't think that would draw fans? Look at these potential matchups, look at them, BAM![/Paul Maguire]


One additional note that's kinda cool, I was contacted by BabyBoomerTrips.com about an affiliate sponsorship thingamabobber. From about.com:

We just heard about a new Internet gateway dedicated to helping baby boomers find travel deals, BabyBoomerTrips.com is owned and operated by ConventionZoo, Inc, which also operates the world's first all-in-one convention portal for attendees and planners. Boomers can now compare prices on flights, hotels, car rentals, and vacation packages as well as information through a comprehensive resource guide. They can also interact with other baby boomers through online message boards. But what I like best is their VW Van logo. Cool, Man!

So anyway, I added a link to them, and check it out if you're doing any traveling (not the NBA kind)!

Twins Update: Not going according to plan

Well, the Twins just finished up a 3-game set at Detroit, and they got swept in an embarrasing manner, losing the games by a combined score of 33-1. 33-1. It's hard to fathom. I realize the Tigers are a lot better this year than in year's past, but this shouldn't happen. The Twins now stand at 9-15, 8 games out of first. When you are 3-12 on the road, this is what generally tends to happen.

It's easy to point at the pitching (especially Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, and Kyle Lohse) as the source of these problems. After all, the Twins 6.23 team ERA is by far the worst in the MLB at this point (I never thought I'd be saying that at the start of the year). Among qualifying pitchers, Radke and Silva are last in the AL in ERA. But if you only look at pitching you don't know that they are only scoring a shade over 4 runs a game. The .694 OPS they have as a team is second worst in the AL above only (sic) Kansas City. All around, things are very depressing right now.

Looking ahead, the Twins have a 2 game set (at home) with the Mariners today and tomorrow, a 2 game set (at home) with the Royals after that, and then 3 games at home against the Tigers. They better think about going 4-3 or 5-2, especially because these games are at home, or they may dig themselves a hole too big to crawl out of.