Thursday, April 20, 2006

NBA Playoff Predictions

I should probably be studying for a Calculus test, but well, this is more fun.

1ST ROUND

1) Detroit Pistons vs. 8) Milwaukee Bucks
I do like the Bucks, and I think they have some weapons that can make this series a little interesting... Redd can shoot, they've got two solid PG, Simmons is a nice wing man, and Bogut & Magloire are skilled down low. But there's no way they can stick with the Pistons in a 7-game series. I think they might be able to steal one, but that's it. PISTONS IN 5.

2) Miami Heat vs. 7) Chicago Bulls
I really like the future for the Bulls. They have a young core, and should be getting some great picks in the draft the next couple years as a result of the Eddy Curry trade. Unfortunately, I don't like them as much for the present. I think Gordon and Hinrich are good enough to get them one game, but there will be too much DWade all the time. HEAT IN 5.

3) New Jersey Nets vs. 6) Indiana Pacers
I don't really like the matchup for the Nets, because the Pacers have some guys that can be physical with Vince Carter (Stephen Jackson, Danny Granger), and that really takes them out of their game. Plus, the Nets don't have anyone that can really match up well with Jermaine O'Neal in the post. However, the biggest reason why the Nets have the advantage is that Jason Kidd is still their point guard, while the Pacers have Jamaal Tinsley/Anthony Johnson. I think we'll see a very good series for Kidd, as the Nets prevail in a tight one. NETS IN 7.

4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5) Washington Wizards
Both these teams are talented and athletic, which is why I think this will be the best playoff series in the East. Cleveland obviously has LeBron James, but Larry Hughes is coming back from injury, Gooden and Ilgauskas are solid in the post, and Flip Murray has brought energy since his arrival. On the other side of the coin, Arenas is a great offensive player, Jamison is a nice all-around player, and Caron Butler is becoming the stud that everyone thought he would be. There should be a lot of points scored here. In the end, I think we'll see a monster series from LeBron (provided the ankle is not a problem), and a tight win for the Cavs. CAVS IN 7.


2ND ROUND

1) Detroit Pistons vs. 4) Cleveland Cavaliers
I've made my love for LeBron known here, but the Cavs don't have the weapons to overcome the Pistons. They are too good defensively, and their offense is too efficient. LeBron's first trip to the playoffs will be a relatively short stay. PISTONS IN 5.

2) Miami Heat vs. 3) New Jersey Nets
The key matchup here is Vince Carter vs. whoever guards him, probably Dwyane Wade. If I were the heat, I wouldn't be too optimistic about this, simply because the best way to stop Vince is to be physical with him, and that would wear down Wade, who needs to be huge for the Heat. Plus, there's the size advantage Vince would have. I think the Nets have the advantage out on the wings with the big 3, but while Collins is solid defensively in the post, he can't stop Shaq and Zo. With home-court advantage, I think Wade brings just enough to oust the Nets. HEAT IN 7.


CONFERENCE FINALS

1) Detroit Pistons vs. 2) Miami Heat
This is boring because I have things going according to seeds, but that's how I see it. This is a rematch of last year's conference finals, but while Miami is a more talented group this year, I don't think they match up any better. Shaq's a year older, and Haslem still won't provide a lot of offense. The key is if Walker and Posey can outplay Tayshaun at the SF spot, then I think the Heat have a very solid shot at this game. But right now, I think Detroit is too good, and their offense is improved from last year. Miami should have won last year's conference final, but I don't think Detroit will need the help of an injury to Wade. PISTONS IN 6.


1ST ROUND

1) San Antonio Spurs vs. 8) Sacramento Kings
Despite the seeds, the Spurs can't take this for granted, because the Kings are playing very well. Ron Artest is the best defender in the NBA and Mike Bibby is very consistent and has a good playoff track record. That being said, these are the Spurs, and I expect them to be focused as they always are at this time of the year. Spurs in 5.

2) Phoenix Suns vs. 7) LA Lakers
I think the Suns are the most entertaining team in the NBA to watch, but if I was a Suns fan I'd be worried here. For one thing, Phoenix still is not that good defensively. They give up over 102 PPG, which is a bit misleading because of the style they play, but they allow their opponents to shoot over 45% from the field, which is the worst among Western Conference playoff teams. Secondly, the Lakers are playing very well lately. Lamar Odom is playing great basketball, the role players are doing their job, and Kwame Brown is starting to somewhat live up to the hype. Third, and most important, Kobe Bryant plays to the Lakers. I think he's the one guy that can single-handedly lead his team to a series victory. He averaged over 40 points a game in the 4 meetings between these two teams. I can see Kobe averaging about 45 a game over the series, and this being the most entertaining series of the first round. Excuse me while I take a drink of the Kobe Kool-Aid. LAKERS IN 7.

3) Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers
I'm finding it hard to get a read on this series. I think this will come down to the health of the Nuggets big men (K-Mart and Camby), and I think they're relatively healthy. I like what Cassell brings, and I like Brand and Maggette offensively, but I think a lot of this series will come down to Corey Maggette or Quinton Ross on Carmelo Anthony, and with that matchup, I'll take Carmelo. NUGGETS IN 6.

4) Dallas Mavericks vs. 5) Memphis Grizzlies
Congratulations Memphis Grizzlies! You finished with the 4th best record in the Western Conference. Your reward? You get to travel to Dallas to play the team with the 3rd best record in the NBA. I really like the Grizz, and I like how Jerry West has slowly but surely improved them each year, and if they had lost their last game and were playing the Nuggets, I'd pick them. But they don't have the firepower to beat the Mavs in a 7-game series. MAVERICKS IN 6.


2ND ROUND

1) San Antonio Spurs vs. 4) Dallas Mavericks
Obviously, the Mavs have had a fantastic season, and they are capable of winning this series. Dirk is a bona fide star, and they are solid at all spots and have good depth. That said, I don't think they are good enough yet to stick with the Spurs. Too experienced and too talented. SPURS IN 6.

7) LA Lakers vs. 3) Denver Nuggets
Here's me drinking some more of the Kobe Kool-Aid. I think we'll see a lot of Kobe guarding Carmelo, and Kobe's defense is overlooked more than any other part of his game. The Lakers have a decent amount of big bodies they can throw down low on Denver's big men, and all they'll be asked to do is play defense and rebound, which is what Kwame can do. I look for another big series from Kobe, and more great effort from the Lakers role players. LAKERS IN 6.


CONFERENCE FINALS

1) San Antonio Spurs vs. 7) LA Lakers
This is where I step off the Kobe bandwagon. I think he'll be able to dominate games earlier, but against Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili on the wing and then great help defense down low, I'm not so optimistic. For the Spurs, round 2 is the conference finals, because it's smooth sailing to the championship after that. SPURS IN 5.


NBA FINALS

Eastern Winner: Detroit Pistons vs. Western Winner: San Antonio Spurs
It may be the boring pick, but I really think that all roads lead to an NBA Finals rematch (and to Rome). In my mind, I have a hard time envisioning these guys losing before this point, provided they can remain healthy. This year, I think things may be tilted in Detroit's favor. They've basically been resting for a while now, having locked up the East a while, they have home-court advantage, and their bench is better than it's given credit for. And not to sound like a broken record, but their offense is better under Flip. Another thing is, I don't think Rasheed Wallace will be leaving Big Shot Rob open for anymore late shots. PISTONS IN 7.

76 comments:

the sports dude said...

Nice post and nice picks, for the most part our east picks look about the same. I agree, I think the LeBron/Arenas match up will be fun to watch. Thanks for finding my blog, I will add a link to you here soon.

Benny said...

If you put this much effort into studying for Calc as you did in your post, you'd get an easy A! Just kidding. Who wants to study anyways.

Nice write up and your finals prediction looks right on

mutoni said...

nice post. you have similar picks to mine :

http://mutoni.blogspot.com/2006/04/crystal-ball.html

The Armchair Quarterback said...

I agree wth most of your picks. However even though it's not too realistic, I'm hoping for a few upsets to spice the playoffs up.

Zach Landres-Schnur said...

real original with the top two teams in the finals. way to go, Twins.

haha, just kidding. i think you're picks look good, eventhough it's news to me that it's already playoff time.

Ian C. said...

Congratulations on being "Deadspun"! Hopefully, that'll console you if that Calculus thing doesn't work out.

Pradamaster said...

Having followed the Wizards for years, I can tell you two things.

1. Depending on Kwame Brown is like depending on Kurt Cobain to sing happy birthday to your 8 year-old kid. It's just not going to turn out well.

2. The Wizards are better than you think. They're beating Cleveland.

Congrads on being a Deadspin panel expert on the NBA Playoffs!

twins15 said...

Thanks guys... the Calc test was today, so hopefully that went well. :)

And Prada, I'm aware of the type of talent the Wizards have... but I think LeBron's good enough to beat them even though the Cavs 2-12 aren't as good as the Wizards 2-12.

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Anonymous said...

http://completesports.blogspot.com/2006/04/nba-playoff-predictions.html

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商標打人 said...

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jkl338801 said...

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正享 said...

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商標打人 said...

當舖
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專利
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專利
當舖
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