Monday, May 29, 2006

Who do these NBA prospects compare to most?

In my mind, the leading spot on the Web for covering the NBA Draft is NBADraft.net, which you've probably visited if you follow the draft at all. One of my favorite things that they is find an NBA comparison for most of the prospects, which I find interesting. Alas, I thought it'd be fun to do some comparions of my own to see how they stack up with NBADraft.net and other sites around the web. Here's my comparisons for 10 NBA players, so tell me if you think I'm off base or if you like some of mine better than NBADraft.net (some will be similar). Feedback's appreciated here!

LaMarcus Aldridge: My Comparison - Nenad Krstic - NBADraft.net compares Aldridge to Channing Frye, and I can see those comparisons, but I think he's more like Nenad Krstic. Aldridge is a better rebounder, but I think their offense is similar in that they can both hit the medium range jump shot and they can both be effective at times down on the blocks, but may need to get a little stronger.

Adam Morrison: My Comparison - Wally Szczerbiak - A lot of people compare Morrison to Larry Bird, but other than the fact that they both have long hair and are/were great scorers, I don't see anything else similar. Morrison is nowhere near the rebounder, passer, or even defender that Bird was. I think Wally Szczerbiak is a more valid comparison, although Morrison is better at creating his shot, Wally World is a better pure shooter. But beyond the scoring, neither guys really excel in any other areas, whether it's rebounding, being great passers, or defensively. But they can both score.

Tyrus Thomas: My Comparison - Shawn Marion - Obviously Thomas does not have the outside jumper (especially beyond the arc where Marion shot a very respectable 33% this year), but I think they compare in a lot of other ways. Both have freakish athleticism, they're excellent rebounders, run the floor, and play solid defense. Once Thomas begins to develop more range on his jumpshot I think he can have a Marion-like impact.

Randy Foye: My Comparison - Chauncey Blllups - The Gatorade Dump mentioned that they think Foye looks like the second coming of Chauncey Billups, and while I do think the comparison is apt, I don't think Foye will ever be quite as good as Billups is. However, they both have some similar skills - solid handling the ball, solid passers, good defensively, and a good outside shot. I think Billups is the better shooter and defender, but Foye looks a lot like a poor man's Chauncey Billups to me.

Rudy Gay: My Comparison - Tim Thomas - NBADraft.net compares Gay to Pippen, but I don't see that comparison. To me, Gay is very similar to Tim Thomas in that they both have a varied skill set but they can be a little inconsistent. At times, Thomas can hit the outside shot, go down and score on the block, and be a great rebounder (which he's shown throughout the playoffs), but as we know from the rest of his career, he can also disappear for long stretches. Gay seems similar to that, at least in my eyes. Gay may have been the most "talented" player in the NCAA last year, but he didn't always show it. Still, he has a nice 3-point shot, handles the ball well going to the basket, he's a good rebounder, and he has the best pull-up jumper of anyone in the draft. But still, you never know quite what he's going to bring on any given night, which reminds me of Tim Thomas.

Marcus Williams: My Comparison - Steve Nash - NBADraft.net compares him to Deron Williams, but in my mind he's more like Steve Nash. But then again, I've stated before that I am the charter member of the Marcus Williams Fan Club and I think he'll be a fantastic player in this league if he can stay out of trouble. But he does remind me of Nash in that on the fast break he's got incredible vision and makes the right decisions, but he can be turnover-prone in the half-court. Also, both guys can find different ways to score near the basket, especially with a little floater. Obviously Nash is the better outside shooter at this point, but as long as Williams can keep improving the outside shot like he did last year he'll only get better, and I think his career path could be a lot like Nash's.

Rodney Carney: My Comparison - Richard Jefferson - I've heard comparisons to Shawn Marion, but I don't think Carney is that type of player. Critical Fanatic called him Shawn Marion v2.0, but I guess I'd have to disagree with that, and say he reminds me a little more of a poor man's Richard Jefferson. Unlike Marion, Carney is not that good of a rebounder, as he averaged only 4.3 rebounds per game last year. He is unbelievably athletic and great in the open floor both at the rim and with a decent outside shot, which reminds me more of Jefferson. However, I'm not sure that he's going to really be able to create his own shot off the dribble very well in the NBA, which is why I'm not quite as high on him as others are. I don't think he'll ever be as good as a Shawn Marion or Richard Jefferson, but he should be an effective player provided he gets on a team that likes to run the floor.

Hilton Armstrong: My Comparison - Theo Ratliff - Hilton's been rising up the draft boards a lot over the past year, and might even find himself in the lottery now. To me, he's a little more offensively minded and skilled than Ratliff while not being quite the defensive force Ratliff was in his prime. He's got a respectable 15-foot jumper which I'm not sure Ratliff ever really had. However, he's got good athleticism and great timing on the defensive end, which is why he got 3.1 blocks per game last year. And this for a guy that played 12.4 minutes per game as a junior.

Rajon Rondo: My Comparison - Jacque Vaughn - Rondo is not quite as inept as Jacque Vaughn is on the offensive end, but defensively I think they're similar. They're both good on-the-ball defenders and good help defenders, evidenced by Rondo averaged 2.6 steals per game as a freshman and then 2.0 steals per game as a sophomore. Rondo is a much better penetrator and finisher than Vaughn, but that outside shot and free throw shot are still ugly. If he can improve shooting the ball, Rondo can move up to be the 2nd or 3rd best PG in this draft, otherwise, I think his ceiling isn't that much higher than Jacque Vaughn.


Brandon Roy: My Comparison - Shane Battier - I've seen predictions that Roy will have a Dwyane Wade like impact coming into the league, but I think there's a lot of problems with that. I think coming out of college Wade had the better jumper, handled the ball better than Roy, and is a better finisher. I think Wade was and is just much more explosive than Roy, which isn't really a slight to Roy, because Wade is one of the top 5 players in the NBA. I think Roy is more like a Shane Batter, although not quite as good as Battier is defensively, in that he does everything well. He has a solid handle, he's good passer, plays hard defense, and will do what it takes to win. NBADraft.net compared him to Jalen Rose, and I do kind of like that comparison, because at his prime Rose could play both guard spots, hit the open jumper, penetrate, or find the open man. I think Roy will be a solid player for a long time, either as a great 6th man or a solid starter, but I don't think he'll have the superstar impact of a guy like Dwyane Wade. One thing I do know is that along with Rudy Gay, Roy has the most balanced and varied skill set of anyone in the draft.

What do you think? If I'm way off base with some of these, feel free to let me know!

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why did you leave Brandon Roy out? Who do you compare him to?

The Big Picture said...

b-roy = lebron...just not quite as good.

twins15 said...

Whoops, I meant to put Roy in there initially and must have just forgotten. Anyway, I did put it in there. I think he compares to a little more offensive-minded Shane Battier. He's got a good skill set, does everything pretty well, but doesn't quite have the skills to be a star. Still, he should he be a solid player for a long time in the NBA, similar to a Battier.

Anonymous said...

Look I'm from Seattle, I've played ball with the guy.. B-Roy is no Battier, No Rose, not as good as Lebron, He is as good as Wade. The problem is he's not flashy just smooth and since that doesn't get the media pub then he's automatically not as good. Look that guy was College Player of the year, Not the one-dimensional players as Redick and Morrison, B-Roy does it all. If he has one downfall it's that maybe he's not aggressive enough, but that can be fixed. He's going to be a immediate star!!

Don't be sleeping on the Northwest and Garfield!!

Anonymous said...

Using his player in NCAA Basketball 2005 for PlayStation doesn't count as 'playing' wit him.

Anonymous said...

I'm going back intime here but some of us in Chicago compare Lemarcus Aldridge to Brad Sellers, and that can never be good.

twins15 said...

Hey, don't worry, I'm not sleeping on Roy, but I just don't think he's as good overall as someone like Wade (or at least, as good comparatively speaking).

That said, I do think he's better than Adam Morrison, and I think in time he'll be the 4th or 5th best player from this draft (I think Thomas, Bargnani, and M. Williams will be the top 3).

I think he'll have an immediate impact and be a good player for a long time, but I don't think he'll ever quite be a star.

Pradamaster said...

I think most of these are spot on. I'm definetly with you on Morrison and Carney. I watched a lot of Richard Jefferson in college, and the more I think about it, the more Carney's game mirrors Jefferson's.

The only ones I really disagree with are Marcus Williams, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Brandon Roy. Williams had a great NCAA Tournament and certainly did well in the regular season, but I'd definetly take all three of last year's point guard class (Deron Williams, Paul, Raymond Felton) over him. I'd compare Williams to a Mark Jackson with a better jump shot. His style is different from Nash's.

With Aldridge, I think you underestimate his post skills. Kristic was a guy who came into the league with little post ability and a very good jump shot. Aldridge's game is very different. He has that post game, especially the turnaround jumper. He's not the kind of guy who will consistently hit the 15 footer. As such, he compares to Channing Frye or even Rasheed Wallace without the jumper in my eyes.

With Roy, I disagree with the Battier comparison. Remember, Battier was a power forward in college and didn't have Roy's ball-handling or passing ability. Roy reminds me of Mitch Richmond. Richmond had some prolific seasons for a terrible Sacramento Kings team. His game, like Roy's, was described as a smooth all-around game. Richmond, like Roy, never wowed anyone with spectacular plays, but consistently put up great all-around numbers. If I had to name a comparison to today's game, it would probably be Joe Johnson.

The Big Picture said...

bargnani will be as good as darko.

twins15 said...

I really like the Roy/Johnson comparison, and think that's better than the Battier comparison. Johnson's got a good all-around game, came in and immediately was a solid player and has improved every year. I think that compares well to Roy's future.

Anonymous said...

where is Ronnie Brewer?

twins15 said...

I was going to add Brewer, but I just don't know quite enough about him or seen enough of him to make a comparison. I only saw a couple of Arkansas games last year, and only bits of pieces of those. Not enough to really make a comparison.