Wednesday, September 06, 2006

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1

Let me first say I don't actually gamble and have no money on any NFL games, but I think picking them against the spread just to see how I do is fun. For odds, I just used the first column here, because I don't really know the good place to get odds. But enough talking, let's get to the picks.

Steelers (Pick 'em) over Dolphins - Yes, Roethlisberger is out, but I still like the Steelers here. They're great defensively, and Willie Parker should get the ball a lot. As long as Batch can avoid big mistakes, I like the Steelers in a defensive battle.

Broncos (-3.5) over Rams - I like the Rams offense, and the game is being played indoors in St. Louis, but the Broncos do the same things the Steelers do well - run the ball and play great defense. I think it will be enough to cover the spread.

Jets (+2.5) over Titans - I like the Jets outright here... both teams are awful, but I think the Jets have a little more stability at QB as long as Pennington is healthy. One thing's for sure, this is a not a game I would like to have to watch.

Panthers (-5) over Falcons - There are concerns about Steve Smith's health, but I think the Panthers have enough to cover. Delhomme is nice, and Keyshawn is now in the mix. Plus, with Deshaun and DeAngelo in the backfield and that great defense, they should be able to control the game.

Bengals (+1) over Chiefs - The Bengals are a team I really like (though not enough to pick them to win it all like this guy) Carson Palmer looked fabulous in the preseason game I saw, and the rest of the offense is at potent as ever. LJ should run wild for the Chiefs, but I like the Bengals to win the game.

Lions (+7) over Seahawks - I like the Seahawks to win the game, but I think the Lions can cover the spread. As we all know, Martz is in town, and the Lions are playing at home. A weak vote for the Lions here.

Eagles (-6) over Texans - Same old story for the Texans... on the other hand, the Eagles will be much improved with better health all-around. I think the Eagles got a real shot at winning the East, and this should be the start of it.

Bucs (-3) over Ravens - These are two teams that I really like... the Ravens have McNair which should make the offense better if he's healthy, and the Bucs have a good defense, and young and talented QB and RB. I like the Bucs at home.

Browns (-3) over Saints - Reggie Bush is in town, but the Browns are headed in the right direction under Romeo Crennel. Charlie Frye is a very solid young QB, and I like them to cover at home over what will be an improved Saints team.

Patriots (-10) over Bills - The Bills are just awful. And Tom Brady should be better than ever, especially with a running game. The spread seems rather high, but I think the Pats will cover.

Bears (-4.5) over Packers - The Packers are just an awful club this year (sorry Packer backers)... Favre should have retired yesterday, the line is a mess, and Greg Jennings is their #2 WR. Enough said.

Cardinals (-7.5) over 49ers - Warner, James, Fitzgerald, Boldin... ah, if the Cards only had a decent line! But I still like them to cover, although I think Alex Smith will be a heck of a lot better this year than last, and Frank Gore is a solid RB.

Cowboys (+1.5) over Jaguars - The Jags will again be in the playoff mix, but I think the initial burst the Cowboys will get from TO on the field, along with their stout defense will be enough to cover in Jacksonville.

Colts (-3.5) over Giants - Obviously this is a preview of my Super Bowl, and I like the same result here. Plus it's early in the regular season... Peyton Manning should be on top of his game, right?

Vikings (+4) over Redskins - Quote of the preseason, courtesy of Bill Simmons:

To the dumbest plan of the year: the Redskins investing in two free agent receivers (Antwan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd) and an expensive offensive coordinator (Al Saunders) to go with their expensive gamebreakers (Clinton Portis and Santana Moss) … only they're going with a washed-up Mark Brunell at QB again. How does that make sense? Does Joe Gibbs do this with NASCAR, too? Does he spend a ton of money on his cars and pit crews, then find the most mediocre drivers possible?

In other words, I'll take the Vikings outright.

Chargers (-3) over Raiders - This line seems like it should be higher... did someone forget to tell the oddsmakers that Aaron Brooks is the starting QB for the Raiders this year?

So, what picks of mine are horribly wrong? :)


SAMO said...

Using the spread I took the following teams this week:

Miami, St. Louis, Tennessee, New England, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco, Indy, Washington, and San Diego.

Wow I, the million dollar man, am giving away my picks for free? What is wrong with me? Enjoy these picks!

Pacifist Viking said...

I don't think I've found anybody but Viking fans picking the Vikes.

Have we too quickly forgotten that this team was basically incapable of winning outdoors for several years? I guess I have: I assume a good defense and an offense predicated on short passing and picking up first downs is what it takes.

twins15 said...

Thanks Mini Mi, looks like I'm going to Vegas!

PV, I honestly think (and hope) they're past the "can't win outdoors" thing. Even last year, they won at New York and at Green Bay, which was a start. Plus, I think that whereas the Vikings teams in the past were more reliant on speed in the dome, this Vikings team will be more reliant on running the ball and playing good defense, which as you say seems to be more conducive (sp?) to winning outdoors. Either way, it should be an excellent way to kick off the year and see just how good this team can be this year.

WallStHustla said...

Here's a free winning play:
Chicago - 8.5
Projected Score: Chi 23 - Det 9

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