NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3

And back for another week of thrilling picks! Jacksonville/Indapolis is the big game on the schedule, but there's a lot of good inter-divisional matchups this week.

Redskins (-4) over Texans - The Redskins have not looked good the first 2 weeks, but I think everyone's overreacting a little bit. It's the first 2 games with a new, complex offense, and it's largely been without their best player. The Texans have a trio of Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado, and Wali Lundy at RB. David Carr is playing very well, but Gregg Williams is smart... I think he'll make the Texans run the ball a lot, and I'm not convinced they can.

Jets (+5.5) over Bills - I just find it really hard to pick Buffalo favored by this much with JP Losman as their QB. The defense has been great, and the Bills are at home, but I can't get over JP Losman here. So my pick is the Jets.

Jaguars (+7) over Colts - I still think the Colts will win the game, but 7 is a pretty big spread for as well as Jacksonville played Monday night. I think Joseph Addai will start to get more and more carries for the Colts, and they will just be better and better offensively when that happens. Plus, that Manning fellow is good. But the Jags always play the Colts tough, and I think they'll be able to keep this one close, even in Indy.

Lions (-7) over Packers - The Lions being favored by 7? I guess that shows what the oddsmakers think about the Pack. And me picking the Lions to cover about shows what I think of them as well.

Steelers (-2) over Bengals - I love the Bengals this year, and Palmer is playing great... but it's hard to see the Steelers falling to 1-2. Big Ben should be healthier and the Steelers are at home. Plus, the Bengals will be without their starting center. This is a weak vote for the Steelers, because I think this should be a well-played and competitve game.

Dolphins (-10.5) over Titans - I have very little confidence in Daunte Culpepper... he's not completely healthy, he's making dumb mistakes, taking too many sacks, etc. But, I think the Titans are the worst team in the NFL. Yes, worse than the Raiders. Even with the enormous coaching edge that anyone has over Art Shell. Vince Young should start to see more and more action, and while that's good for the long-run, it's not so good for the short-term.

Vikings (+4) over Bears - so after yesterday we know all about the Vikings and all about the Bears... but who will win the game this week? Well, I think the Bears win a tight one... but I'm still not sold on their offense, especially if Minnesota can stop the run and force Grossman to throw. Plus, I can't pick against the Vikings at home.

Panthers (-3) over Bucs - If Steve Smith plays, I like Carolina here. DeAngelo Williams established last week that he will be a huge contributor offensively, and the defense was superb. As for the Bucs, it appears I significantly overrated them, because they can't do anything offensively, and that won't change against Carolina.

Ravens (-7) over Browns - I admit... I traded for Steve McNair in Fantasy Football and am now a little worried after a couple of subpar performances. Still, the defense is so good that I think the Ravens can score enough points to cover the spread.

Giants (+3.5) over Seahawks - This is purely a gut feeling after the way the Giants finished last week... Seahawks are very talented, but Alexander hasn't been that great. If Strahan and Usi can put pressure on Hasselbeck off the edge, I like the Giants here. Eli Manning's darn good, and the whole offense is very talented. The logic in me says to go with Seahawks, but I'm going with my gut and taking the Giants.

Eagles (-6) over 49ers - The Niners are as improved as any team in football, but I think they'll be taking on any angry Eagle team, and I don't expect Andy Reid to lighten up if his team gets the lead. I see a big day for McNabb and the Eagles, as they go into SF and get a win, which is definitely not as easy as it used to be.

Rams (+4.5) over Cardinals - Ok, the Rams did not look good at all last week against the 49ers. Consider this another gut feeling.

Broncos (+7) over Patriots - Talk about winning ugly... last week the Broncos beat the Trent Green-less Chiefs 9-6 in OT while the Patriots held off the Jets for a 24-17 win. Both teams are having some of the same problems - they can't always pass the ball. For the Broncos, the problem has been Jake Plummer. For the Patriots, Tom Brady hasn't had a whole lot of guys to throw to. This week, I see the Broncos being a little better offensively because Shanahan is really smart, but I also see Brady doing just enough to win the game, but not cover the spread. Broncos are the pick.

Falcons (-4) over Saints - 2-0 is 2-0 is 2-0, but the Saints win have come against Cleveland and Green Bay. Atlana has run the ball all over the field against Carolina and Tampa Bay. I love Reggie Bush, I like The Deuce, and the Saints are a decent bunch, but I just can't see them slowing down Atlanta's run game. Like, at all. I like the Falcons to win by 10+ points.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 19-13