Could we have seen this coming?

By now, we know who the real George Mason was, the most famous George Mason alumni, and just about every other random factoid you ever wanted to know about them. By the time Saturday rolls around, I suspect we'll even know what shampoo GMU coach Jim Larranago uses (my guess: Pert Plus), and you'll also hear about as many bad 'Patriot Act' puns as you'll ever want to hear. But this doesn't answer some questions about the Patriots, such as, how did they get here? Could we have seen this coming? Let's take a look at the past coupld of years of Patriot basketball.

Last year, George Mason was a middle of the pack CAA team, posting a 10-8 conference record and a 16-13 overall record. They lost their last 3 games on the way to an early exit in the CAA Tournament. Obviously, they were nowhere near a postseason tournament.

From what I can tell, they came back with much of the same as far as the roster is concerned. Their top 3 scorers are seniors. However, this year didn't start out much better than last year finished.

They started out with a win over UC-Irvine, and then lost to Wake Forest. At the time, this was an understandable loss... then Wake Forest went on to finish last in the ACC. In their next game they lost by 20 vs. Creighton. By early December they were 4-3. They proceeded to go 24-4 the rest of the way, and are now 4-0 in the tourney. Let's check the numbers of this year's starters last year compared to this year:

2004 Stats
Jai Lewis - 13.0 Points, 7.5 Rebounds, 1.9 Assists
Tony Skinn - 14.4 Points, 2.9 Rebounds, 2.2 Assists
Lamar Butler - 15.7 Points, 2.4 Rebounds, 2.4 Assists
Will Thomas - 5.7 Points, 5.6 Rebounds, 0.8 Assists
Folarin Campbell - 6.4 Points, 2.2 Rebounds, 1.3 Assists

2005 Stats
Jai Lewis - 13.7 Points, 7.7 Rebounds, 1.9 Assists
Tony Skinn - 12.6 Points, 3.5 Rebounds, 2.8 Assists
Lamar Butler - 12.0 Points, 2.5 Rebounds, 2.0 Assists
Will Thomas - 11.8 Points, 7.3 Rebounds, 1.2 Assists
Folarin Campbell - 11.0 Points, 4.3 Rebounds, 3.5 Assists

From the looks of the numbers, the 3 seniors (Skinn, Lewis, Butler) have all been about equal statistically, but the improved play is coming mostly from the sophomores. Of course, this is mainly to be expected, as typically that is when the most improvement occurs, and because Campbell and Thomas didn't start last year while the other three did.

So this doesn't really tell us anything. How about their schedule this year? Hiw did they fare against tournament teams?

Well, they did go 3-1 against tournament teams, with those wins against Wichita St., Manhattan, and UNC-Wilmington. Good wins, but nothing really to hang your hat on. Consequently, 6 of their 7 losses came against Non-Tourney teams, with the exception being UNC-Wilmington, whom they split with.

Could anyone have really seen this coming? Maybe this guy, but I'm guessing his was more of a lucky guess or joke pick. All the signs pointed against them going far. They had a tough road (the last two National Champs as well as a talented Michigan St. squad), they most likely don't have anyone that will play in the NBA, their second leading scorer was suspended for the first game of the Tournament for throwing a cheap shot, they had exactly 2 wins against the RPI Top 50, and they didn't have any type of momentum (they had lost to Hofstra twice in the last 2 weeks, including in the Quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament). Yet here they are, one of 4 teams left in the NCAA Tournament, making perhaps the best run ever in the NCAA Tournament, the first Mid-Major to make the Final Four since Larry Bird and Indiana St. in 1979, and tied for the lowest seed ever in the NCAA Tournament.

Sometimes, you just never know.