Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Major Conference Tourney Preview, Part 1

Here's part 1 of my Major Conference Tourney Previews (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC). I decided to just stick with these 6 conferences, because my knowledge of the smaller ones is not as good as it should be. So alas, here's part 1, as we delve into Championship Week.

ACC

March 9-12

Regular Season Champion: Duke 27-3, (14-2)

Favorite: The favorite is still probably Duke at this point, but only by a little over North Carolina. They're a senior-led group, and they still have that regular season crown.

Darkhorse: Florida St. - Despite the Seminoles wins over Duke and Miami last week, they still can't feel completely safe as far as a tourney berth is concerned. A win over Wake Forest is a must in round 1, and after that, they get a floundering N.C. State squad. If they win that, they would in all likelihood match up with Duke, and I think we remember what happened the last time these two played (or if you don't remember, FSU won). Florida St. is playing well, they're athletic, and they're still fighting for their tourney lives.

My Pick: Duke - Regardless of their two losses last week, they still have the two best players in the conference (although you could certainly make a case that Hansborough is playing at a higher level than Shelden Williams right now), and they are a senior-led team. They're going to want to go out on top in the ACC, and I think Redick will bounce back from his recent struggles and lead Duke to an ACC Championship, beating Boston College in the Title Game.


Big East

March 8-11

Regular Season Champion: Connecticut 27-2 (14-4) and Villanova 24-2 (14-2)

Favorite: The favorite is Connecticut right now, especially if they keep their focus, which they didn't really do against Louisville. If they play like they did in the second half against Villanova, they're pretty much unbeatable.

Darkhorse: West Virginia - This is about the time that they made their run last year, so why not again? They're not very deep, but they're difficult if you don't have a lot of time to prepare for them (such as in a tournament setting), and if they're hitting shots, they can and do play with anyone in the country. They're likely second round matchup is Pittsburgh, and then they would porobably play Villanova, both of which they have already beaten this year.

My Pick: Connecticut - They are quite possibly the deepest team in the nation, which is a big plus playing 3 games in 3 days, like they would have to do to win the Big East Tourney. They also have a very nice balance between their inside scoring and outside scoring. This is what I think will allow them to win this, in another tight game against Villanova in the Big East Championship.


Big Ten

March 9-12

Regular Season Champion: Ohio St. 23-4 (12-4)

Favorite: Probably Ohio St. with the way they are playing, although you have to throw Illinois' name in the mix as a favorite as well. But being the #1 seed, I'll go with the Buckeyes as the favorites.

Darkhorse: Michigan St. - They have not been playing well at all lately, either on defense or rebounding the ball. But there are a couple of things that work to their advantage. 1) Shannon Brown, Maurice Ager, and Paul Davis all average over 18 points a game, so they have firepower. 2) Matt Trannon might be back in time. 3) Tom Izzo is still their coach.

My Pick: Illinois - Buckeyes are tough, but I like Illinois' defense and the fact that they still have Dee Brown. Ohio St. shot the lights out against them the last time these teams met, but when they meet again in the Big 10 Title Game, I don't think things will go quite as well.

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